1、 Reference number ISO 13824:2009(E) ISO 2009INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO 13824 First edition 2009-11-15 Bases for design of structures General principles on risk assessment of systems involving structures Bases du calcul des constructions Principes gnraux sur lvaluation du risque pour les systmes comp
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7、09(E) ISO 2009 All rights reserved iiiContents Page Foreword .v Introductionvi 1 Scope1 2 Normative references1 3 Terms and definitions .2 4 General framework of risk assessment of systems involving structures.4 4.1 Overview of risk management of systems involving structures4 4.2 Applicability of ri
8、sk assessment6 5 Establishment of structural engineering context 6 5.1 Structural-engineering context 6 5.2 Establishment of design basis.7 5.3 Assessment of existing structures7 5.4 Assessment of exceptional structures or extraordinary events 7 5.5 Preparation of risk information for decision 7 6 D
9、efinition of system 8 6.1 Representation of the system 8 6.2 Identification of the subsystems .8 7 Identification of hazards and consequences8 7.1 Identification of possible hazards .8 7.2 Identification of extent of scenarios8 7.3 Identification of consequences8 7.4 Hazard screening.8 8 Risk estima
10、tion 9 8.1 Types of risk estimation .9 8.2 Data for estimation 10 8.3 Risk representation .10 8.4 Estimation of probability 10 8.5 Estimation of consequence11 8.6 Risk calculation .11 8.7 Sensitivity analysis .11 9 Risk evaluation 11 9.1 Risk acceptance 11 9.2 Risk criteria 12 10 Evaluation of optio
11、ns for risk treatment .12 10.1 General .12 10.2 Determination of options12 10.3 Assessment of options for risk treatment 13 10.4 Implementation of risk treatment.13 11 Report .13 Annex A (informative) Principles of risk assessment .14 Annex B (informative) Examples of extraordinary events and except
12、ional structures for risk assessment 18 Annex C (informative) Techniques for treatment of expert opinions 20 Annex D (informative) Examples of quantitative risk representation23 ISO 13824:2009(E) iv ISO 2009 All rights reservedAnnex E (informative) Equations for risk estimation.27 Annex F (informati
13、ve) Procedure for the estimation of consequences.31 Annex G (informative) Examples of measures for risk treatment 33 Annex H (informative) Examples of application of risk acceptance and optimization 36 Bibliography 42 ISO 13824:2009(E) ISO 2009 All rights reserved vForeword ISO (the International Or
14、ganization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical committee has been establ
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16、on. International Standards are drafted in accordance with the rules given in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2. The main task of technical committees is to prepare International Standards. Draft International Standards adopted by the technical committees are circulated to the member bodies for voting.
17、 Publication as an International Standard requires approval by at least 75 % of the member bodies casting a vote. Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this document may be the subject of patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such pa
18、tent rights. ISO 13824 was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 98, Bases for design of structures, Subcommittee SC 2, Reliability of structures. ISO 13824:2009(E) vi ISO 2009 All rights reservedIntroduction Recently, special attention has been has been focused on risk. Although risk assessment of
19、 structures is done with a common basis, it has been implemented under various contexts in diversified ways. Therefore, this International Standard provides a common basis for assessing risk relevant to design, assessment, maintenance and decommissioning of structures. This International Standard ac
20、cords with the umbrella International Standard of risk management being prepared as ISO 31000 by ISO/TMB. In a risk assessment, hazard identification and the estimation of consequence are primary major procedures. For these, it is necessary to assess the risk of systems involving structures rather t
21、han just the structures, since structural failure has significant consequence for systems, and a failure of systems such as fire protection systems can cause serious consequences. However, actions for risk treatment are taken within the scope of structural design. Such considerations are reflected i
22、n the title of this International Standard. This International Standard is intented to serve as a basic document, along with other relevant standards on risk management, for those assessing risk for systems involving structures. Annexes A to H of this International Standard are for information only.
23、 INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO 13824:2009(E) ISO 2009 All rights reserved 1Bases for design of structures General principles on risk assessment of systems involving structures 1 Scope This International Standard specifies general principles of risk assessment for systems involving structures. The focus
24、 is on strategic and operational decision-making related to design, assessment, maintenance and decommissioning of structures. This also includes formulation and calibration of related codes and standards. Systems involving structures can expose stakeholders at various levels in society to significa
25、nt risks. The aim of this International Standard is to facilitate and enhance decision-making with regard to monitoring, reducing and managing risks in an efficient, cost-effective and transparent manner. Within the broader context of risk management, risk assessment provides decision-makers with pr
26、ocedures to determine whether or not and in what manner it is appropriate to treat risks. This International Standard provides a general framework as well as a procedure for identifying hazards and estimating, evaluating and treating risks of structures and systems involving structures. This Interna
27、tional Standard also provides a basis for code writers as well as designers to set reasonable target-reliability levels, such as stated in ISO 2394, based on the result of risk considerations. For existing structures, assessment of the risks associated with the events that were not considered in the
28、 original design or with changes in use shall be implemented according to the principles stated in this International Standard. This International Standard can also be used for risk assessment of exceptional structures, the design of which is usually beyond the scope of existing codes. 2 Normative r
29、eferences The following referenced documents are indispensable for the application of this document. For dated references, only the edition cited applies. For undated references, the latest edition of the referenced document (including any amendments) applies. ISO 2394, General principles on reliabi
30、lity for structures ISO/TS 16732, Fire safety engineering Guidance on fire risk assessment ISO/IEC Guide 51:1999, Safety aspects Guidelines for their inclusion in standards ISO Guide 73, Risk management Vocabulary ISO 13824:2009(E) 2 ISO 2009 All rights reserved3 Terms and definitions For the purpos
31、es of this document, the terms and definitions given in ISO 2394, ISO/TS 16732, ISO/IEC Guide 51 and ISO/IEC Guide 73, together with the following, apply. 3.1 acceptable risk level of risk that an individual or society accepts to secure certain benefits 3.2 cost/benefit analysis analysis contributin
32、g to decision-making on whether to adopt a project or a plan by quantifying and comparing its costs and benefits 3.3 extraordinary event event that cannot be anticipated or expected technologically by experts, or an event whose occurrence probability is estimated as extremely low 3.4 hazard potentia
33、l source of undesirable consequences 3.4.1 hazard identification process to find, list and characterize hazards 3.4.2 hazard curve exceedence probability of a specified hazard magnitude for a specified period of time 3.4.3 hazard screening process of identifying significant hazards that shall be con
34、sidered during risk assessment of systems involving the structures 3.5 option possible measures for managing the risk NOTE Doing nothing can be a feasible option when other options cannot mitigate the risk against their invested costs. 3.6 reliability ability of a structure or structural element to
35、fulfil the specified requirements, including working life for which it has been designed 3.7 residual risk risk remaining after risk treatment 3.8 risk combination of the probability or frequency of occurrence of an event and the magnitude of its consequence NOTE From the view point of a strict deci
36、sion theory, it is the expected value of all undesirable consequences, i.e. the sum of all the products of the consequences of an event and their probabilities. ISO 13824:2009(E) ISO 2009 All rights reserved 33.9 risk acceptance decision to accept a risk 3.10 risk assessment overall process of estab
37、lishment of structural engineering context, definition of system, identification of hazards and consequences, risk estimation, risk evaluation and evaluation of treatment options 3.11 risk calculation act of representing a combination of probabilities and consequences of occurrence of risks as a sca
38、lar, in order to compare with risk options NOTE See 8.6. 3.12 risk communication exchange or sharing of information about risk among the decision-makers, other stakeholders and engineers NOTE 1 The information can relate to the existence, nature, form, probability, severity, acceptability, treatment
39、 or other aspects of risk. NOTE 2 Engineers are the main source for risk information and encourage stakeholders to communicate with each other. 3.13 risk control actions implementing risk-management decisions NOTE Risk control can involve monitoring, re-evaluation and compliance with decisions. 3.14
40、 risk criteria criteria against which the results of the risk analysis are assessed NOTE 1 The criteria are generally based on regulations, standards, experience, and/or theoretical knowledge used as a basis of the decision on acceptable risk. NOTE 2 Risk criteria can depend on associated costs and
41、benefits, legal and statutory requirements, socio-economic and environmental aspects, the concerns of stakeholders, priorities and other inputs to the assessment. 3.15 risk estimation process of assigning values to the probability of occurrence of events and their consequences NOTE Risk estimation c
42、an consider cost, benefits, the concerns of stakeholders and other variables, as appropriate for risk evaluation. 3.16 risk evaluation process of comparing the estimated risk with given risk criteria to determine the significance of the risk NOTE Risk evaluation can be used to assist in the decision
43、 to accept or to treat a risk. 3.17 risk treatment process of selection and implementation of measures to optimise risk ISO 13824:2009(E) 4 ISO 2009 All rights reserved3.18 scenario qualitative description of a series of events in time and space and their inter-relationship given the occurrence of a
44、 hazard 3.19 structural engineering context background or reasons why the risk assessment shall be implemented from structural perspectives 3.20 stakeholder any individual, group, organization or authority that can affect, be affected by, or perceive itself to be affected by, a risk NOTE The decisio
45、n-maker is a stakeholder. 3.21 structure arrangement of materials that is expected to withstand certain actions and to perform some intended function 3.22 system delimited group of interrelated, interdependent or interacting objects that is assessed for a potential risk NOTE 1 This definition implie
46、s that the system is identifiable and is made up of interacting elements or subsystems, that all elements are identifiable, and that the boundary of the system can be identified. NOTE 2 A system involving structures includes the structural system defined in ISO 2394 as a subsystem. NOTE 3 In terms o
47、f technological hazards, a system is normally formed from a physical subsystem, a human subsystem, their management and environment. 3.23 undesirable consequence direct and indirect harm, stated in terms of personal injury, death, environmental damage, and monetary loss NOTE 1 There can be more than
48、 one negative consequence from an event. NOTE 2 Consequences can be expressed qualitatively or quantitatively. NOTE 3 Both immediate and long-term consequences should be included. NOTE 4 “Environmental damage” is based on a versatile point of view and sometimes various kinds of damage can be include
49、d, such as social and political damage. 3.24 undesirable event event that can have undesirable consequences 4 General framework of risk assessment of systems involving structures 4.1 Overview of risk management of systems involving structures 4.1.1 General The objective of risk management is generally to allocate limited resources “optimally” for the stakeholders such as society, local community, individuals, and various organizations. Risk management typically consists of the establishment of risk-management goals, risk assessment,
