Trends in African-American Marriage Patterns.ppt
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1、Trends in African-American Marriage Patterns,Steven Ruggles and Catherine Fitch,Data collection funded by the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health,We have three big questions:,Why was there no postwar marriage boom among blacks?Why did black marriage age rise so rapidly
2、after 1970? Why did the traditional gender pattern of marriage age reverse among blacks after 1990?,No marriage boom for black men,Or women,Extraordinary increase in marriage age, 1970-1990,Reversal of traditional sex pattern of marriage age,Data: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS-USA),H
3、armonized census microdata spanning the period from 1850 to 2000 with user-friendly access, integrated comprehensive hypertext documentation. IPUMS makes analysis of long run change easy. http:/ipums.org,Although we have three nice questions, we have fewer answers.,Absence of a black marriage boom:
4、we have that one coveredRise of black marriage age 1970-1990: I will briefly summarize our pending proposal Reversal of traditional gender patternsome preliminary results,Question 1. Why was there no black marriage boom?,No marriage boom for blacks,Marriage age distribution: No marriage boom for bla
5、ck men,Virtually no marriage boom for black women,Methodological interlude,To investigate differentials, we shift our measures from median marriage age and marriage age distribution to percent of young people never married.,The indirect median age at marriage is unreliable in periods of rapid change
6、 (this is particularly important for answering question 3).It also doesnt allow us to look at differentials between most population subgroups, since people change their characteristics as they age. Here is how the indirect median is calculated:,The indirect median has been the principal measure of m
7、arriage age in the U.S. for a century, but it is now unreliable.,With the rapid change in marriage patterns since 1960 we cannot predict how many people will eventually marry, so estimates are increasingly biased upwards.,Also, indirect median is no good for studying differentials in characteristics
8、 that change over the life course, like socioeconomic status.,So, forget about marriage age: we will focus on percent of young people never-married.,Note: SMAM is even worse.,Trend in percent never married is closely similar to trend in marriage age, but there is a slight bump in marriage age for bl
9、ack men from 1950 to 1970,Among white men, there was a marriage boom in every occupational group.But check out what happens when we do the same thing for blacks:,Among black men, there was a marriage boom in every occupational group except for farming.What was happening to the black occupational dis
10、tribution?,Conclusion 1:After the war, blacks were forced off southern farms by mechanization and consolidation of sharecropping farms. This resulted in massive dislocation and a rise of young men with no occupation.Without the shift from farming into no occupation, there would have been a substanti
11、al black post-war marriage boom.There was no marriage boom for blacks because there was no economic boom for blacks.,3 key graphs again, reverse order:,Take the occupational distribution . . .,multiply by unmarried in each group . . .,. . . and the marriage boom for blacks evaporates.,Question 2. Wh
12、at caused the extraordinary rise of black marriage age after 1970?,Extraordinary increase in marriage age, 1970-1990,Hypothesis 1. Declining male opportunity,Marriage boom resulted from rising prosperity, job security, optimism (Glick and Carter 1958); declining male opportunities in 1970s and 1980s
13、, especially among blacks, reversed the trend (Wilson 1987 and many others).Increasing economic uncertainty (Oppenheimer 1988) and inequality (Gould and Paserman 2003) compounded the problem.,Hypothesis 2. Rising female opportunity,Growing economic opportunities for women increased marriage age.Decr
14、eased dependence on a spouse, opened alternatives to marriage (Cherlin 1980).Undermined sex-role specialization and reduced the value of marriage (Becker 1981).,Hypotheses, continued,These theories predict a positive association between male economic opportunity and early marriage, and an inverse as
15、sociation for female opportunity.Historically, these relationships have been strong, but recent evidence that the relationship may have reversed for women (e.g. Oppenheimer and Lew 1995),Hypotheses-continued,Or, maybe it is cultural change (McLanahan 2004: The Feminist Revolution).Or, increasing dif
16、ficulty in establishing households because of rising housing costs. Or, AFDC/TANF (pretty implausible as an explanation, but we will stick it in as a control).,Hypotheses-continued,Or, availability of potential spouses (especially non-incarcerated working spouses). Or, generational shifts in economi
17、c opportunity (Easterlin thesis).,Past studies that attempted to assess relationship between economic opportunities for men and women at the local level on marriage formation ran into data limitations, especially for blacks.We need microdata to construct sensitive and comparable measures of economic
18、 opportunity and other explanatory variables, but available samples are too small and have lousy geographic information (especially before 1980).,Fitch and Ruggles Research Proposal:,We will use internal long-form data (1960-2000) being constructed by the Census Bureaus National Historical Census Fi
19、les Project (with the support of IPUMS Redesign project).Long-form data provides information on between 40 and 45 million persons in each census year with full census geography.,Fitch and Ruggles Proposal (continued),Research will be conducted in Census Bureau Research Data Center to ensure confiden
20、tiality.We will construct 1980 commuting zones (Tolbert and Killian 1987) for each census year to serve as the basis for measures of local area characteristics.,Fitch and Ruggles Proposal (continued),For each commuting zone, we will construct measures of wage levels, inequality, housing, labor-force
21、 participation, and spouse availability.Measures calculated separately for non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and Hispanics of each sex.Measures standardized to control for variation in marital status and age to avoid endogeneity.,Commuting-zone measures of wages and inequality,Commuting zone measures of
22、participation, welfare, housing, and spouse availability,Labor force participation and unemploymentProportion employed 35+ hours for 50+ weeksProportion employed part-timeProportion unemployed Welfare generosity (state level)AFDC/TANF maximum benefit levels HousingIndex of local housing costs (renta
23、l and home value)Percent of home ownership Spouse availabilityAge-specific sex ratioMale Marriageable Pool Index (MMPI), no income control (Lichter et al. 1992, Wilson 1987)MMPI with income control (Lichter et al. 1992),Analysis,Mixed-effect multi-level models to assess changing impact of local econ
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