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SANS 31010-2010 Risk management - Risk assessment techniques《风险管理 风险评估技术》.pdf

1、 Collection of SANS standards in electronic format (PDF) 1. Copyright This standard is available to staff members of companies that have subscribed to the complete collection of SANS standards in accordance with a formal copyright agreement. This document may reside on a CENTRAL FILE SERVER or INTRA

2、NET SYSTEM only. Unless specific permission has been granted, this document MAY NOT be sent or given to staff members from other companies or organizations. Doing so would constitute a VIOLATION of SABS copyright rules. 2. Indemnity The South African Bureau of Standards accepts no liability for any

3、damage whatsoever than may result from the use of this material or the information contain therein, irrespective of the cause and quantum thereof. ISBN 978-0-626-23645-8 SANS 31010:2010Edition 1 IEC/ISO 31010:2009Edition 1SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL STANDARD Risk management Risk assessment techniques Thi

4、s national standard is the identical implementation of IEC/ISO 31010:2009 and is adopted with the permission of the International Electrotechnical Commission and the International Organization for Standardization. Published by SABS Standards Division 1 Dr Lategan Road Groenkloof Private Bag X191 Pre

5、toria 0001Tel: +27 12 428 7911 Fax: +27 12 344 1568 www.sabs.co.za SABS SANS 31010:2010 Edition 1 IEC/ISO 31010:2009 Edition 1 Table of changes Change No. Date Scope National foreword This South African standard was approved by National Committee SABS TC 178, Risk management, in accordance with proc

6、edures of the SABS Standards Division, in compliance with annex 3 of the WTO/TBT agreement. This SANS document was published in January 2010. IEC/ISO 31010Edition 1.0 2009-11INTERNATIONAL STANDARD NORME INTERNATIONALERisk management Risk assessment techniques Gestion des risques Techniques dvaluatio

7、n des risques IEC/iSO 31010:2009 colourinsideSANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS .THIS PUBLICATION IS COPYRIGHT PROTECTED Copyright 2009 IEC, Geneva, Switzerland All rights reserved. Unless otherwise specified, no pa

8、rt of this publication may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and microfilm, without permission in writing from either IEC or IECs member National Committee in the country of the requester. If you have any questions about IEC copyr

9、ight or have an enquiry about obtaining additional rights to this publication, please contact the address below or your local IEC member National Committee for further information. Droits de reproduction rservs. Sauf indication contraire, aucune partie de cette publication ne peut tre reproduite ni

10、utilise sous quelque forme que ce soit et par aucun procd, lectronique ou mcanique, y compris la photocopie et les microfilms, sans laccord crit de la CEI ou du Comit national de la CEI du pays du demandeur. Si vous avez des questions sur le copyright de la CEI ou si vous dsirez obtenir des droits s

11、upplmentaires sur cette publication, utilisez les coordonnes ci-aprs ou contactez le Comit national de la CEI de votre pays de rsidence. IEC Central Office 3, rue de Varemb CH-1211 Geneva 20 Switzerland Email: inmailiec.ch Web: www.iec.ch About the IEC The International Electrotechnical Commission (

12、IEC) is the leading global organization that prepares and publishes International Standards for all electrical, electronic and related technologies. About IEC publications The technical content of IEC publications is kept under constant review by the IEC. Please make sure that you have the latest ed

13、ition, a corrigenda or an amendment might have been published. Catalogue of IEC publications: www.iec.ch/searchpub The IEC on-line Catalogue enables you to search by a variety of criteria (reference number, text, technical committee,). It also gives information on projects, withdrawn and replaced pu

14、blications. IEC Just Published: www.iec.ch/online_news/justpub Stay up to date on all new IEC publications. Just Published details twice a month all new publications released. Available on-line and also by email. Electropedia: www.electropedia.org The worlds leading online dictionary of electronic a

15、nd electrical terms containing more than 20 000 terms and definitions in English and French, with equivalent terms in additional languages. Also known as the International Electrotechnical Vocabulary online. Customer Service Centre: www.iec.ch/webstore/custserv If you wish to give us your feedback o

16、n this publication or need further assistance, please visit the Customer Service Centre FAQ or contact us: Email: csciec.ch Tel.: +41 22 919 02 11 Fax: +41 22 919 03 00 A propos de la CEI La Commission Electrotechnique Internationale (CEI) est la premire organisation mondiale qui labore et publie de

17、s normes internationales pour tout ce qui a trait llectricit, llectronique et aux technologies apparentes. A propos des publications CEI Le contenu technique des publications de la CEI est constamment revu. Veuillez vous assurer que vous possdez ldition la plus rcente, un corrigendum ou amendement p

18、eut avoir t publi. Catalogue des publications de la CEI: www.iec.ch/searchpub/cur_fut-f.htm Le Catalogue en-ligne de la CEI vous permet deffectuer des recherches en utilisant diffrents critres (numro de rfrence, texte, comit dtudes,). Il donne aussi des informations sur les projets et les publicatio

19、ns retires ou remplaces. Just Published CEI: www.iec.ch/online_news/justpub Restez inform sur les nouvelles publications de la CEI. Just Published dtaille deux fois par mois les nouvelles publications parues. Disponible en-ligne et aussi par email. Electropedia: www.electropedia.org Le premier dicti

20、onnaire en ligne au monde de termes lectroniques et lectriques. Il contient plus de 20 000 termes et dfinitions en anglais et en franais, ainsi que les termes quivalents dans les langues additionnelles. Egalement appel Vocabulaire Electrotechnique International en ligne. Service Clients: www.iec.ch/

21、webstore/custserv/custserv_entry-f.htm Si vous dsirez nous donner des commentaires sur cette publication ou si vous avez des questions, visitez le FAQ du Service clients ou contactez-nous: Email: csciec.ch Tl.: +41 22 919 02 11 Fax: +41 22 919 03 00 SANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and

22、 printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS .IEC/ISO 31010Edition 1.0 2009-11INTERNATIONAL STANDARD NORME INTERNATIONALERisk management Risk assessment techniques Gestion des risques Techniques dvaluation des risques INTERNATIONAL ELECTROTECHNICAL COMMISSION COMMISSION ELEC

23、TROTECHNIQUE INTERNATIONALE XDICS 03.100.01 PRICE CODECODE PRIXISBN 2-8318-1068-2colourinsideSANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS . 2 31010 IEC:2009 CONTENTS FOREWORD.4 INTRODUCTION.6 1 Scope.7 2 Normative references

24、.7 3 Terms and definitions .7 4 Risk assessment concepts .7 4.1 Purpose and benefits 7 4.2 Risk assessment and the risk management framework8 4.3 Risk assessment and the risk management process8 4.3.1 General .8 4.3.2 Communication and consultation .9 4.3.3 Establishing the context.9 4.3.4 Risk asse

25、ssment .10 4.3.5 Risk treatment .10 4.3.6 Monitoring and review .11 5 Risk assessment process .11 5.1 Overview .11 5.2 Risk identification 12 5.3 Risk analysis .12 5.3.1 General .12 5.3.2 Controls Assessment.13 5.3.3 Consequence analysis.14 5.3.4 Likelihood analysis and probability estimation .14 5.

26、3.5 Preliminary Analysis 15 5.3.6 Uncertainties and sensitivities .15 5.4 Risk evaluation15 5.5 Documentation 16 5.6 Monitoring and Reviewing Risk Assessment17 5.7 Application of risk assessment during life cycle phases .17 6 Selection of risk assessment techniques 17 6.1 General .17 6.2 Selection o

27、f techniques .17 6.2.1 Availability of Resources .18 6.2.2 The Nature and Degree of Uncertainty.18 6.2.3 Complexity 19 6.3 Application of risk assessment during life cycle phases .19 6.4 Types of risk assessment techniques 19 Annex A (informative) Comparison of risk assessment techniques .21 Annex B

28、 (informative) Risk assessment techniques .27 Bibliography90 Figure 1 Contribution of risk assessment to the risk management process.11 Figure B.1 Dose-response curve37 Figure B.2 Example of an FTA from IEC 60-300-3-9.49 Figure B.3 Example of an Event tree52 SANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be

29、 used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS .31010 IEC:2009 3 Figure B.4 Example of Cause-consequence analysis .55 Figure B.5 Example of Ishikawa or Fishbone diagram 57 Figure B.6 Example of tree formulation of cause-and-effect analysis58 Figure B.7 Example of Huma

30、n reliability assessment .64 Figure B.8 Example Bow tie diagram for unwanted consequences .66 Figure B.9 Example of System Markov diagram .70 Figure B.10 Example of State transition diagram71 Figure B.11 Sample Bayes net 77 Figure B.12 The ALARP concept79 Figure B.13 Part example of a consequence cr

31、iteria table84 Figure B.14 Part example of a risk ranking matrix 84 Figure B.15 Part example of a probability criteria matrix 85 Table A.1 Applicability of tools used for risk assessment .22 Table A.2 Attributes of a selection of risk assessment tools .23 Table B.1 Example of possible HAZOP guidewor

32、ds .34 Table B.2 Markov matrix 70 Table B.3 Final Markov matrix72 Table B.4 Example of Monte Carlo Simulation .74 Table B.5 Bayes table data .77 Table B.6 Prior probabilities for nodes A and B77 Table B.7 Conditional probabilities for node C with node A and node B defined .77 Table B.8 Conditional p

33、robabilities for node D with node A and node C defined .78 Table B.9 Posterior probability for nodes A and B with node D and Node C defined.78 Table B.10 Posterior probability for node A with node D and node C defined .78 SANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscri

34、ption and freemailing clients of the SABS . 4 31010 IEC:2009 INTERNATIONAL ELECTROTECHNICAL COMMISSION _ RISK MANAGEMENT RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES FOREWORD 1) The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) is a worldwide organization for standardization comprising all national electrotechnical

35、 committees (IEC National Committees). The object of IEC is to promote international co-operation on all questions concerning standardization in the electrical and electronic fields. To this end and in addition to other activities, IEC publishes International Standards, Technical Specifications, Tec

36、hnical Reports, Publicly Available Specifications (PAS) and Guides (hereafter referred to as “IEC Publication(s)”). Their preparation is entrusted to technical committees; any IEC National Committee interested in the subject dealt with may participate in this preparatory work. International, governm

37、ental and non-governmental organizations liaising with the IEC also participate in this preparation. IEC collaborates closely with the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) in accordance with conditions determined by agreement between the two organizations. 2) The formal decisions or

38、agreements of IEC on technical matters express, as nearly as possible, an international consensus of opinion on the relevant subjects since each technical committee has representation from all interested IEC National Committees. 3) IEC Publications have the form of recommendations for international

39、use and are accepted by IEC National Committees in that sense. While all reasonable efforts are made to ensure that the technical content of IEC Publications is accurate, IEC cannot be held responsible for the way in which they are used or for any misinterpretation by any end user. 4) In order to pr

40、omote international uniformity, IEC National Committees undertake to apply IEC Publications transparently to the maximum extent possible in their national and regional publications. Any divergence between any IEC Publication and the corresponding national or regional publication shall be clearly ind

41、icated in the latter. 5) IEC itself does not provide any attestation of conformity. Independent certification bodies provide conformity assessment services and, in some areas, access to IEC marks of conformity. IEC is not responsible for any services carried out by independent certification bodies.

42、6) All users should ensure that they have the latest edition of this publication. 7) No liability shall attach to IEC or its directors, employees, servants or agents including individual experts and members of its technical committees and IEC National Committees for any personal injury, property dam

43、age or other damage of any nature whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, or for costs (including legal fees) and expenses arising out of the publication, use of, or reliance upon, this IEC Publication or any other IEC Publications. 8) Attention is drawn to the Normative references cited in this pub

44、lication. Use of the referenced publications is indispensable for the correct application of this publication. 9) Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this IEC Publication may be the subject of patent rights. IEC shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all

45、such patent rights. International standard IEC/ISO 31010 has been prepared by IEC technical committee 56: Dependability together with the ISO TMB “Risk management” working group. The text of this standard is based on the following documents: FDIS Rapport de vote56/1329/FDIS 56/1346/RVD Full informat

46、ion on the voting for the approval of this standard can be found in the report on voting indicated in the above table. In ISO, the standard has been approved by 17 member bodies out of 18 having cast a vote. This publication has been drafted in accordance with the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2. SANS 31

47、010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS .31010 IEC:2009 5 The committee has decided that the contents of this publication will remain unchanged until the maintenance result date indicated on the IEC web site under “http:/websto

48、re.iec.ch“ in the data related to the specific publication. At this date, the publication will be reconfirmed; withdrawn; replaced by a revised edition; amended. IMPORTANT The colour inside logo on the cover page of this publication indicates that it contains colours which are considered to be usefu

49、l for the correct understanding of its contents. Users should therefore print this document using a colour printer. SANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS . 6 31010 IEC:2009 INTRODUCTION Organizations of all types and sizes face a range of risks that may affect the achievement of their objectives. T

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