SANS 31010-2010 Risk management - Risk assessment techniques《风险管理 风险评估技术》.pdf

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3、damage whatsoever than may result from the use of this material or the information contain therein, irrespective of the cause and quantum thereof. ISBN 978-0-626-23645-8 SANS 31010:2010Edition 1 IEC/ISO 31010:2009Edition 1SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL STANDARD Risk management Risk assessment techniques Thi

4、s national standard is the identical implementation of IEC/ISO 31010:2009 and is adopted with the permission of the International Electrotechnical Commission and the International Organization for Standardization. Published by SABS Standards Division 1 Dr Lategan Road Groenkloof Private Bag X191 Pre

5、toria 0001Tel: +27 12 428 7911 Fax: +27 12 344 1568 www.sabs.co.za SABS SANS 31010:2010 Edition 1 IEC/ISO 31010:2009 Edition 1 Table of changes Change No. Date Scope National foreword This South African standard was approved by National Committee SABS TC 178, Risk management, in accordance with proc

6、edures of the SABS Standards Division, in compliance with annex 3 of the WTO/TBT agreement. This SANS document was published in January 2010. IEC/ISO 31010Edition 1.0 2009-11INTERNATIONAL STANDARD NORME INTERNATIONALERisk management Risk assessment techniques Gestion des risques Techniques dvaluatio

7、n des risques IEC/iSO 31010:2009 colourinsideSANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS .THIS PUBLICATION IS COPYRIGHT PROTECTED Copyright 2009 IEC, Geneva, Switzerland All rights reserved. Unless otherwise specified, no pa

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22、 printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS .IEC/ISO 31010Edition 1.0 2009-11INTERNATIONAL STANDARD NORME INTERNATIONALERisk management Risk assessment techniques Gestion des risques Techniques dvaluation des risques INTERNATIONAL ELECTROTECHNICAL COMMISSION COMMISSION ELEC

23、TROTECHNIQUE INTERNATIONALE XDICS 03.100.01 PRICE CODECODE PRIXISBN 2-8318-1068-2colourinsideSANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS . 2 31010 IEC:2009 CONTENTS FOREWORD.4 INTRODUCTION.6 1 Scope.7 2 Normative references

24、.7 3 Terms and definitions .7 4 Risk assessment concepts .7 4.1 Purpose and benefits 7 4.2 Risk assessment and the risk management framework8 4.3 Risk assessment and the risk management process8 4.3.1 General .8 4.3.2 Communication and consultation .9 4.3.3 Establishing the context.9 4.3.4 Risk asse

25、ssment .10 4.3.5 Risk treatment .10 4.3.6 Monitoring and review .11 5 Risk assessment process .11 5.1 Overview .11 5.2 Risk identification 12 5.3 Risk analysis .12 5.3.1 General .12 5.3.2 Controls Assessment.13 5.3.3 Consequence analysis.14 5.3.4 Likelihood analysis and probability estimation .14 5.

26、3.5 Preliminary Analysis 15 5.3.6 Uncertainties and sensitivities .15 5.4 Risk evaluation15 5.5 Documentation 16 5.6 Monitoring and Reviewing Risk Assessment17 5.7 Application of risk assessment during life cycle phases .17 6 Selection of risk assessment techniques 17 6.1 General .17 6.2 Selection o

27、f techniques .17 6.2.1 Availability of Resources .18 6.2.2 The Nature and Degree of Uncertainty.18 6.2.3 Complexity 19 6.3 Application of risk assessment during life cycle phases .19 6.4 Types of risk assessment techniques 19 Annex A (informative) Comparison of risk assessment techniques .21 Annex B

28、 (informative) Risk assessment techniques .27 Bibliography90 Figure 1 Contribution of risk assessment to the risk management process.11 Figure B.1 Dose-response curve37 Figure B.2 Example of an FTA from IEC 60-300-3-9.49 Figure B.3 Example of an Event tree52 SANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be

29、 used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS .31010 IEC:2009 3 Figure B.4 Example of Cause-consequence analysis .55 Figure B.5 Example of Ishikawa or Fishbone diagram 57 Figure B.6 Example of tree formulation of cause-and-effect analysis58 Figure B.7 Example of Huma

30、n reliability assessment .64 Figure B.8 Example Bow tie diagram for unwanted consequences .66 Figure B.9 Example of System Markov diagram .70 Figure B.10 Example of State transition diagram71 Figure B.11 Sample Bayes net 77 Figure B.12 The ALARP concept79 Figure B.13 Part example of a consequence cr

31、iteria table84 Figure B.14 Part example of a risk ranking matrix 84 Figure B.15 Part example of a probability criteria matrix 85 Table A.1 Applicability of tools used for risk assessment .22 Table A.2 Attributes of a selection of risk assessment tools .23 Table B.1 Example of possible HAZOP guidewor

32、ds .34 Table B.2 Markov matrix 70 Table B.3 Final Markov matrix72 Table B.4 Example of Monte Carlo Simulation .74 Table B.5 Bayes table data .77 Table B.6 Prior probabilities for nodes A and B77 Table B.7 Conditional probabilities for node C with node A and node B defined .77 Table B.8 Conditional p

33、robabilities for node D with node A and node C defined .78 Table B.9 Posterior probability for nodes A and B with node D and Node C defined.78 Table B.10 Posterior probability for node A with node D and node C defined .78 SANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscri

34、ption and freemailing clients of the SABS . 4 31010 IEC:2009 INTERNATIONAL ELECTROTECHNICAL COMMISSION _ RISK MANAGEMENT RISK ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES FOREWORD 1) The International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) is a worldwide organization for standardization comprising all national electrotechnical

35、 committees (IEC National Committees). The object of IEC is to promote international co-operation on all questions concerning standardization in the electrical and electronic fields. To this end and in addition to other activities, IEC publishes International Standards, Technical Specifications, Tec

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42、6) All users should ensure that they have the latest edition of this publication. 7) No liability shall attach to IEC or its directors, employees, servants or agents including individual experts and members of its technical committees and IEC National Committees for any personal injury, property dam

43、age or other damage of any nature whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, or for costs (including legal fees) and expenses arising out of the publication, use of, or reliance upon, this IEC Publication or any other IEC Publications. 8) Attention is drawn to the Normative references cited in this pub

44、lication. Use of the referenced publications is indispensable for the correct application of this publication. 9) Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this IEC Publication may be the subject of patent rights. IEC shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all

45、such patent rights. International standard IEC/ISO 31010 has been prepared by IEC technical committee 56: Dependability together with the ISO TMB “Risk management” working group. The text of this standard is based on the following documents: FDIS Rapport de vote56/1329/FDIS 56/1346/RVD Full informat

46、ion on the voting for the approval of this standard can be found in the report on voting indicated in the above table. In ISO, the standard has been approved by 17 member bodies out of 18 having cast a vote. This publication has been drafted in accordance with the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2. SANS 31

47、010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS .31010 IEC:2009 5 The committee has decided that the contents of this publication will remain unchanged until the maintenance result date indicated on the IEC web site under “http:/websto

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49、l for the correct understanding of its contents. Users should therefore print this document using a colour printer. SANS 31010:2010This s tandard may only be used and printed by approved subscription and freemailing clients of the SABS . 6 31010 IEC:2009 INTRODUCTION Organizations of all types and sizes face a range of risks that may affect the achievement of their objectives. T