API MPMS 13 3-2017 Manual of Petroleum Measurement Standards Chapter 13 3 Measurement Uncertainty (SECOND EDITION).pdf

1、Manual of Petroleum Measurement Standards Chapter 13.3 Measurement Uncertainty SECOND EDITION, DECEMBER 2017Special Notes API publications necessarily address pr oblems of a general nature. With respect to particular circumstances, local, state, and federal laws and regulations should be reviewed. N

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16、 Washington, DC 20005, standardsapi.org. iiiContents Page 1 Scope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 Normative References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

17、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3 Terms, Definitions, Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Symbols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3.1 Terms and Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

18、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3.2 Acronyms, Abbreviations, and Symbols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 4 Basic Concepts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

19、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4.1 General. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4.2 Measurement Method. . . . . . . . . . . . .

20、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4.3 True Quantity Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4.4 Error . . . . . . . . .

21、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4.5 Statistical Basis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

22、. . . . 10 4.6 Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.7 Confidence Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

23、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.8 Type A vs Type B Uncertainties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.9 Representative Samples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.10 Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.11 Standard Deviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.12 Standard Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.13 Degrees of Freedom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

26、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.14 Determining Confidence Interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 4.15 Correlation Coefficient . . . . . .

27、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 4.16 Independent and Dependent Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 4.17 Combining Uncertainties . .

28、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 4.18 Probability Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 5 Evaluating Un

29、certainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 5.1 General. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

30、 . . . . 20 5.2 Determine the Measurement Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 5.3 Record Elemental Error Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

31、. . . 21 5.4 Create a Primary Uncertainty Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 5.5 Classify and Evaluate Uncertainty Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 5.6

32、 Determine Sensitivity Coefficients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 5.7 Determine Correlation Coefficients . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 5

33、.8 Determine Combined Standard Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 5.9 Determine Expanded Uncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 5.10 Report

34、ing Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Annex A (informative) Monte Carlo Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

35、 33 Annex B (informative) Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Annex C (normative) Formal Proof of Equation (7a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

36、. . . . 54 Annex D (informative) Report Significant Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Annex E (normative) Using a Simplified Estimate of Standard Deviation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Annex F

37、 (informative) Dixons Q-Test for Outliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

38、. . . . . . . . 65 vContents Page Figures 1 Accuracy/Precision Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2 Normal Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

39、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3 Triangular Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 4 Rectangular Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

40、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 5 Relationship between Measurement Model and Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 6 Relationship between the Uncertainty of the Measurement Model and the Uncertainty of the Inputs. . . . .

41、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 7 Hierarchal Relationship of all Uncertainty Components of a Measurement Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 B.1 Vector c, Matrix Diag(c) and Vector u using

42、 Data from Example B1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 B.2 Matrix R using Data from Example B1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 B.3 Result of Multiplying Diag(c) and u from Figure B.1 Diag(c) u. . . . .

43、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 B.4 Result of Transposing Figure B.3 Diag(c) uT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 B.5 Result of Multiplying Figure B.4 by Matrix R Found in Figure B.1 Diag(c) uT R . . . . . . . . . . . .

44、. 44 B.6 Result of Multiplying the Matrix in Figure B.5 by the Matrix in Figure B.3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 B.7 The Matrices Associated with Diag(c) uT RT and Diag(Diag(c) uT RT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 B.8 The Relative Contribution of Each Component . . . . . . . . . .

45、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 D.1 Uncertainty of the Transmitter Verification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 D.2 Uncertainty of the Transmitter after Adjustment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

46、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Tables 1 Data with Same Mean but Different SDs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2 Student t Factors for Individual Measurements at Various Confidence Levels . . . . . .

47、. . . . . . . . . . . . 14 3 Example of a Primary Table. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 4 Matrix 1Universe of Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

48、 . . . . . . . . . . 30 5 Matrix 2Correlation Matrix (Informative). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 B.1 Example Conditions and Correction Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

49、 . . 35 B.2 Primary Uncertainty Table for Meter Factor Example. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 B.3 Classification and Evaluation of Uncertainty Components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 B.4 Sensitivity of Uncertainty Components . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 B.5 Correlation Matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .