注册金融分析师一级-10及答案解析.doc

1、注册金融分析师一级-10 及答案解析(总分：36.00，做题时间：90 分钟)一、B单项选择题/B(总题数：1，分数：36.00)已知某国的失业率为 14%且处于自然失业率的水平，去年的通货膨胀率为 5%。该国的宏观经济政策制定者认为可以通过不断提高总需求水平来使失业率和通货膨胀率保持较低的水平。试根据上述条件回答问题。（分数：36.00）(1).If this country adopts this policy, what are the most likely short-run effects on inflation and unemployment?unemployment rat

2、e inflation rate remains at 14% less than 5% less than 14% more than 5% more than 14% remains at 5% A. B. C. （分数：2.00）A.B.C.(2).If this country adopts this policy, what are the most likely long-run effects on inflation and unemployment?unemployment rate inflation rate remains at 14% more than 5% les

3、s than 14% more than 5% more than 14% remains at 5% A. B. C. （分数：2.00）A.B.C.(3).A change in the natural rate of unemployment will most likely shift: A. the short-run but not the long-run Phillips curves. B. both the short-run and the long-run Phillips curves. C. neither the short-run nor the long-ru

4、n Phillips curves.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(4).The theory that the rate of growth in potential GDP fluctuates because technology change leads to cycles in the rate of productivity growth is known as: A. Keynesian cycle theory. B. new classical cycle theory. C. real business cycle theory.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(5).Bas

5、ed on supply-side effects, an increase in income tax will most likely: A. shift the demand curve for labor. B. decrease the full-employment quantity of labor. C. increase potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP).（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(6).The Laffer curve shows that an increase in the tax rate: A. will increa

6、se total tax revenue. B. will decrease total tax revenue. C. can either increase or decrease total tax revenue.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(7).The crowding-out effect suggests that government borrowing to finance higher expenditures will most likely: A. increase inflation but reduce private saving. B. increase t

7、he real interest rate and private saving. C. increase the real interest rate and private investment.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(8).Which of the following factors is least likely to reduce the level of investment? A. Lower saving rates. B. Federal budget surplus. C. Increased taxes on capital income.（分数：2.00）A.B

8、.C.(9).An expansionary fiscal policy is most likely to include a(n): A. decrease in both interest and tax rates. B. increase in government expenditures and a decrease in tax rates. C. increase in both government expenditures and central banks open market purchases.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(10).Congress enacts

9、 a program to subsidize farmers in the Midwest with an expansive spending program of $30 billion. At the same time, Congress enacts a $30 billion tax increase. Which of the following best describes the impact on the economy? A. Lower growth due to the negative tax multiplier. B. Higher growth due to

10、 the net positive balanced budget multiplier. C. No effect on growth because the tax and spending multiplier effects offset.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(11).Congress is concerned about delay in the effects of fiscal policy, and is considering requiring the reporting of economic statistics weekly, rather than qua

11、rterly. The new reporting period is intended to decrease the. A. impact delay. B. recognition delay. C. law-making delay.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(12).Which of the following goals of monetary policy is best described to be the key goal? A. Price stability. B. Full employment. C. Moderating long-term interest

12、rates.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(13).The Fed operationalizes its goals by focusing on: A. core inflation and the output gap. B. expected inflation and U.S. dollar exchange rates. C. food and energy prices and the growth rate of real GDP.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(14).The Fed conducts monetary policy primarily by targetin

13、g the: A. inflation rate. B. federal funds rate. C. 10-year Treasury note yield.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(15).If the rate of inflation in a country were to fall below the range targeted by its government, the central bank would most likely: A. sell government securities. B. decrease the overnight rate. C. inc

14、rease the reserve requirement.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(16).Implementing monetary policy in such a way as to keep the forecast rate of inflation at a certain level is best described as a (n): A. Taylor rule. B. targeting rule. C. instrument rule.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(17).An increase in the target federal funds rate

15、 will most likely lead to an increase in: A. business investment in fixed assets. B. consumer spending on durable goods. C. the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.(18).A strategy designed to match the growth rate of the monetary base to the long-term growth rate of real GDP plu

16、s the target inflation rate is: A. inflation targeting. B. the McCallum rule. C. exchange rate targeting.（分数：2.00）A.B.C.注册金融分析师一级-10 答案解析(总分：36.00，做题时间：90 分钟)一、B单项选择题/B(总题数：1，分数：36.00)已知某国的失业率为 14%且处于自然失业率的水平，去年的通货膨胀率为 5%。该国的宏观经济政策制定者认为可以通过不断提高总需求水平来使失业率和通货膨胀率保持较低的水平。试根据上述条件回答问题。（分数：36.00）(1).If thi

17、s country adopts this policy, what are the most likely short-run effects on inflation and unemployment?unemployment rate inflation rate remains at 14% less than 5% less than 14% more than 5% more than 14% remains at 5% A. B. C. （分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 由于失业率处于自然失业率的水平，从而 GDP增长率也处于潜在的均衡水平。提高总需求水平可以在短期内降

18、低失业率，但会使价格水平出现上升，即通货膨胀率上升。因此，本题的正确选项为B。(2).If this country adopts this policy, what are the most likely long-run effects on inflation and unemployment?unemployment rate inflation rate remains at 14% more than 5% less than 14% more than 5% more than 14% remains at 5% A. B. C. （分数：2.00）A. B.C.解析：解析 在长

19、期内，失业率不能长期低于自然失业率水平。刺激总需求的政策措施将使工资率面临上涨的压力，从而导致总供给水平下降，亦即 AS曲线向左移动，进而使产出水平恢复至潜在均衡水平，而失业率也将相应恢复至自然失业率的水平。同时，价格水平也将相应上涨，即通货膨胀率上升。如图所示，由长期菲利普斯曲线的图形特征可知，较高的通货膨胀率不会使失业率低于自然失业率。也就是说，失业率在长期内将始终位于自然失业率的水平。因此，本题的正确选项为 A。 *(3).A change in the natural rate of unemployment will most likely shift: A. the short-r

20、un but not the long-run Phillips curves. B. both the short-run and the long-run Phillips curves. C. neither the short-run nor the long-run Phillips curves.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 自然失业率的变动将导致短期菲利普斯曲线和长期菲利普斯曲线均发生移动。如图所示，假设自然失业率由 N0上升至 N1且均衡通货膨胀率水平保持不变，则短期菲利普斯曲线和长期菲利普斯曲线均将相应向右移动。在新的均衡点 E1处，自然失业率水平为 N1，通货

21、膨胀率水平仍为 I0。*(4).The theory that the rate of growth in potential GDP fluctuates because technology change leads to cycles in the rate of productivity growth is known as: A. Keynesian cycle theory. B. new classical cycle theory. C. real business cycle theory.（分数：2.00）A.B.C. 解析：解析 真实商业周期理论强调实际经济变量的影响，而

22、不是货币变量或是对总需求增长率的预期。根据这一理论的观点，技术的进步将使工人的产量增长率出现波动。因此，本题的正确选项为 C。(5).Based on supply-side effects, an increase in income tax will most likely: A. shift the demand curve for labor. B. decrease the full-employment quantity of labor. C. increase potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP).（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解

23、析 供给方影响是指财政政策(主要是税收)对长期总供给(潜在 GDP)的影响。收入税的上升使劳动者的实际收入减少，从而使劳动者的积极性下降，这意味着劳动的供给水平下降并进而使潜在 GDP下降。如图所示，税率的增长使劳动供给曲线向左移动，这将使均衡(充分就业)劳动量减少。相应地，均衡劳动量的减少使潜在 GDP下降。因此，本题的正确选项为 B。 *(6).The Laffer curve shows that an increase in the tax rate: A. will increase total tax revenue. B. will decrease total tax reve

24、nue. C. can either increase or decrease total tax revenue.（分数：2.00）A.B.C. 解析：解析 由于供给方对潜在 GDP的影响，税率的上升并不一定导致税收的增长。在超过某一定点后，单位货币所带来的税收的增加将被总货币收入的减少所抵消，经济学家亚瑟拉弗将上述关系用拉弗曲线来表示。如图所示，当税率低于 t0时，税收随税率的上升而增加；但是，当税率超过 t0时，税率的继续上升反而使税收下降。因此，本题的正确选项为 C。*(7).The crowding-out effect suggests that government borrow

25、ing to finance higher expenditures will most likely: A. increase inflation but reduce private saving. B. increase the real interest rate and private saving. C. increase the real interest rate and private investment.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 从经济学的角度来讲，挤出效应是指政府支出增加所引起的私人消费或投资降低的经济效应。如图所示，在 ISLM模型中，若 LM曲线不

26、变，向右移动 IS曲线，两种市场同时均衡时会引起利率的上升和国民收入的增加。但是，利率的上升(从 r0到 r1)会抑制一部分私人投资，降低原有的乘数效应，从而财政支出增加所引起的国民收入增加小于不考虑货币市场的均衡(即 LM曲线)或利率不变(始终为 r0)条件下的国民收入增量，这两种情况下的国民收入增量之差(即图中 Y1与 Y2的国民收入之差)，就是利率上升引起的“挤出效应”。在私人收入不变的条件下，私人投资的下降会使私人储蓄相应上升。因此，本题的正确选项为 B。*(8).Which of the following factors is least likely to reduce the

27、level of investment? A. Lower saving rates. B. Federal budget surplus. C. Increased taxes on capital income.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 联邦预算盈余意味着政府储蓄增加，从而通常会使投资水平上升。从挤出效应的角度来讲，联邦预算盈余往往意味着政府实施了紧缩性的财政政策，从而减少了财政政策的挤出效应，促使投资水平上升。综上所述，本题的正确选项为 B。(9).An expansionary fiscal policy is most likely to include a(n):

28、 A. decrease in both interest and tax rates. B. increase in government expenditures and a decrease in tax rates. C. increase in both government expenditures and central banks open market purchases.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 相机抉择的财政政策(discretional fiscal policy)是指政府根据经济情况和财政政策的有关手段的特点相机抉择，积极主动地变动财政的成本和税收以

29、稳定经济，实现充分就业的机动性财政政策。相机抉择的财政政策又分为两类：在国民收入的均衡水平低于充分就业时，通过减税和增加政府开支来提高有效需求，消除失业，称为扩张性的财政政策；在国民收入的均衡水平高于充分就业时，通过增税或减少政府开支，降低有效需求，称为紧缩性的财政政策。(10).Congress enacts a program to subsidize farmers in the Midwest with an expansive spending program of $30 billion. At the same time, Congress enacts a $30 billio

30、n tax increase. Which of the following best describes the impact on the economy? A. Lower growth due to the negative tax multiplier. B. Higher growth due to the net positive balanced budget multiplier. C. No effect on growth because the tax and spending multiplier effects offset.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解

31、析 平衡预算乘数是指政府购买成本和政府税收同时按同一幅度增加或减少时对国民收入变动的影响。如果政府增加购买性成本和增加一笔与上述成本相同数额的税收时，政府预算仍属平衡，但国民收入会增加。此时，收入增加量恰好等于政府成本或税收额的增加量，或者说，平衡预算乘数为 1。这是因为，政府预算 BS等于税收 T减去政府购买 G和转移支付 TR，即 BS=T-TR-G。如果 TR不变，则在预算平衡的情况下，有 BS=T-G=0，或 T=G。因此，本题的正确选项为 B。(11).Congress is concerned about delay in the effects of fiscal policy,

32、 and is considering requiring the reporting of economic statistics weekly, rather than quarterly. The new reporting period is intended to decrease the. A. impact delay. B. recognition delay. C. law-making delay.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 影响时滞是指从实施财政政策到产生具体效果所需的时间，认识时滞是指财政政策的决策部门(财政部)认识到宏观经济走势所需的时间，决策时滞是指

33、各项财政政策经过相关政府部门和议会的批准所经历的时间。显然，本题中汇报期间的改变有利于财政政策当局及时了解宏观经济的走势情况并发现相关问题，从而最有助于降低认识时滞。因此，本题的正确选项为 B。(12).Which of the following goals of monetary policy is best described to be the key goal? A. Price stability. B. Full employment. C. Moderating long-term interest rates.（分数：2.00）A. B.C.解析：解析 美联储的货币政策目标包

34、括以下三个方面：(1)实现就业率最大化，即实现经济稳定增长率的最大化；(2)物价稳定；(3)长期利率保持适中水平。由于物价稳定的货币政策目标是实现其他两个货币政策目标的前提，从而该项货币政策目标通常被认为是最关键的目标。因此，本题的正确选项为 A。(13).The Fed operationalizes its goals by focusing on: A. core inflation and the output gap. B. expected inflation and U.S. dollar exchange rates. C. food and energy prices and

35、 the growth rate of real GDP.（分数：2.00）A. B.C.解析：解析 为了使货币政策目标具有可操作性，美联储主要关注两项指标：一是核心通货膨胀率；二是实际经济产出与潜在(充分就业水平)经济产出之间的差额。其中，核心通货膨胀率用消费价格指数 CPI的增长率来加以度量，且去除 CPI指数中波动性较大的部分(食品和能源价格)。 当产出差额为正(实际产出大于潜在产出)时，宏观经济将面临通货膨胀的压力，从而货币供给和信贷总量将出现紧缩的迹象。反之，当产出差额为负(实际产出小于潜在产出)时，宏观经济将面临衰退的压力，从而货币供给和信贷总量将出现扩张的迹象。 因此，本题的正确

36、选项为 A。(14).The Fed conducts monetary policy primarily by targeting the: A. inflation rate. B. federal funds rate. C. 10-year Treasury note yield.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 美联储实施货币政策的主要方法是对联邦基金利率(Federal Funds Rate，FFR)施加影响。其中，联邦基金利率是指商业银行间的隔夜同业拆借利率。美联储将这种短期利率作为其货币政策的主要工具。当美联储希望增加货币供给时，将相应降低联邦基金利率的目标值；反之，

37、当美联储希望减少货币供给时，则相应提高联邦基金利率的目标值。(15).If the rate of inflation in a country were to fall below the range targeted by its government, the central bank would most likely: A. sell government securities. B. decrease the overnight rate. C. increase the reserve requirement.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 中央银行出售政府债券或提高

38、存款准备金要求将使货币供应量减少，从而导致通货膨胀率进一步下降。因此，选项 A和选项 C不正确。 中央银行降低隔夜拆借利率将使商业银行的可贷资金增长，从而增加商业银行的放贷规模，使货币供应量增长，通货膨胀率上升。因此，选项 B正确。(16).Implementing monetary policy in such a way as to keep the forecast rate of inflation at a certain level is best described as a (n): A. Taylor rule. B. targeting rule. C. instrumen

39、t rule.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 如果美联储选择遵循目标规则，则联邦基金利率的制定应当基于对未来通货膨胀率的预期，从而使预期通货膨胀率等于目标通货膨胀率。 需要指出的是，泰勒规则是工具规则的一种，该规则主要基于通货膨胀率和产出差额。根据泰勒规则，联邦基金利率的计算方法为： 联邦基金利率=目标通货膨胀率+实际通货膨胀率+0.5(实际通货膨胀率-目标通货膨胀率)+0.5产出差额 因此，本题的正确选项为B。(17).An increase in the target federal funds rate will most likely lead to an increase

40、 in: A. business investment in fixed assets. B. consumer spending on durable goods. C. the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar.（分数：2.00）A.B.C. 解析：解析 联邦基金利率的上涨通常会导致长期利率上涨，从而吸引更多的资金用于储蓄，进而导致对固定资产的投资和耐用商品的消费金额下降。因此，选项 A和选项 B不正确。 美元利率的上涨会吸引大量的国际游资进入美国金融市场寻求套利利润，即通过美国金融市场与其他国家金融市场之间的利率差异谋求差额利润，从而使美

41、元升值，即美元的汇价上涨。因此，选项 C正确。(18).A strategy designed to match the growth rate of the monetary base to the long-term growth rate of real GDP plus the target inflation rate is: A. inflation targeting. B. the McCallum rule. C. exchange rate targeting.（分数：2.00）A.B. C.解析：解析 麦克勒姆规则主要关注货币基础的增长率，其理论基础为货币数量论(MV=PY)。根据这一规则，货币基础的增长率应当等于实际 GDP的增长率与目标通货膨胀率之和，且应根据货币供给量的变动情况进行相应调整。因此，本题的正确选项为 B。