The Belated Irish Success.ppt

1、The Belated Irish Success,Introduction,“Historiography“ of the Tiger The Cartoon Version of Supply and Demand Logarithms and the Labour Market!,Possible Answers - 1,Walsh Demography, FDI etc., fiscal reform Ruane, Barry FDI Harmon et al. Education ORourke Mechanism of convergence,Possible Answers -

2、2,McAleese - Openness (EFC and CJH) Lane - Labour share falling Murphy - It never happened! The Fairy Godmother (Godparent) view Giavazzi et. al. EFC - see Bradley & Whelan Honohan & Walsh- The last word Barry FDI, FDI, FDI, FDI, ,First order issues: Openness & EU Human capital Demography FDI Second

3、 order issues: Fiscal policy,fiscal reform, deregulation Monetary policy Partnerhip and policy consensus Structural Funds,Candidates,Openness,Freeing of Trade - FDI Affects demand for labour See effects in labour market Migration Increases elasticity of labour supply Wider cultural effects Learning

4、from others experience,Labour Supply,Natural Increase Female Participation Migration Human Capital Replacement Rate,Birth Rate,Total Fertility Rate by Education,Population Structure 2002,Female Labour Force Participation,Female Labour Force Participation,Female Labour Force Participation,Immigration

5、,Education of Emigrants,Net Emigration,Population who have resided abroad,Educational Attainment, 30-39,Educational Attainment,Sectoral Human Capital,Unemployment Rate,Labour Supply,Replacement Rate,Skilled Labour,Effects of increase in supply,Returns to Education - All Employees,Demand for Labour,F

6、DI Shifting world demand for skilled labour Competitiveness,US Manufacturing FDI Flows,Relative Wage Rates,Skilled Labour,Effects of increase in supply and demand,w1,w1,L1,Unskilled Labour,D1,L2,w2,S2,w0,L0,D0,S1,Wage rate,Employment,Relative Wage Rates,Earnings Dispersion, Ireland 1987-2000,Enablin

7、g Factors,Sound Public Finances Speed of adjustment The EU Structural Funds Social Partnership,Fiscal policy Indexation 1974-2000,Fiscal Stance,CSF 1989-93 and 1994-1999,Ireland in the Medium Term,Potential to Outperform Neighbours to 2010 Supply Constraints still Relevant Short-term Problems Vulner

8、abilities,GNP Forecasts,Average Growth of GNP,Relative GNP,Demographics,Dependency ratio Convergence in output per head Convergence in output per worker,Economic Dependency,Investment as a Share of GNP,Participation Rates:,Migration:,Output:,Labour Demand:,Demand for skilled and unskilled labour:,-

9、Little substitution between skilled and unskilled,Wage rates:,Skilled labour market, fixed UR:,Skilled wage rate flexible, changes to clear the market,Unemployment Rate,Labour Supply:,Population:,Shock the Model,Objective: To see how skilled and unskilled labour markets are affected by different fac

10、tors Lower FDI, Lower Growth Lower Human Capital Educational Attainment Frozen at 1980 No migration No Migration,1 : NH/POPH = 9.1+0.525*LOG(WH/PC)-.0049*TYEAR,2 : NL/POPL = -.44+0.525*LOG(WL/PC)-.21*LOG(RUP/WL)-.012*UR,3 : M = -432+289*(1-UR(-1)/100)/(1-UR_UK(-1)/100)+1362*W*(1-tax_IRL)/PC/(W_UK*(1

11、-tax_UK)/PC_UK)-20*D78+22*D90,4 : LOG(GNP) = -3.5-.018*LOG(W/W_UK)+.0016*TYEAR+(1-.85)*LOG(GDP_USA)+.85*LOG(GNP(-1),7 : LOG(L/GNP) = 17.8-.51*LOG(W/PC)-.0098*TYEAR,8 : LOG(LH/LL) = -113.5+.057*TYEAR,Elasticity of 0.525 - Doris, 1999,Kearney, 1998,Elasticity wrt US imposed as 1 (LR),Lower FDI, Effect

12、 on GDP,Lower FDI, Effect on Wage Rates,Lower FDI, Effect on Immigration,Lower FDI, Effect on Unemployment,Educational Attainment,Unchanged Educational Attainment,Lower Human Capital - GDP,Lower Human Capital - Wage Rates,Lower Human Capital - Unemployment,Skilled Labour Supply,%,3.2,Skilled Wage Ra

13、tes,%,-4.7,GNP,%,1.5,Total Employment,%,3.2,Unemployment rate,%,-0.7,Effects of Net Immigration, 1996-99,Immigration Reduced by 10k,Immigration Reduced by 10k,Immigration Reduced by 10k,Immigration Reduced by 10k,Immigration Reduced by 10k,Conclusions,Growth predciated on openness Human Capital contributed 1% a year FDI ? Return from FDI and Human Capital enhance one another,