The HYSPLIT Model Transport and Dispersion System.ppt

1、The HYSPLIT Model Transport and Dispersion System,Roland Draxler, Barbara Stunder, and Glenn Rolph NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) Silver Spring, MD,Why dispersion modeling?Radiological Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Washington per WMO Documentation on RSMC Support for Environ

2、mental Emergency Response (WMO-TD/No. 778)Volcanic ash NOAA-FAA MOU on Volcanic Hazards Alert Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (Washington and Anchorage) per ICAO* International Standards and Recommended Practices; Annex 3 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation, Meteorological Service for In

3、ternational Air NavigationHomeland Security support WFOs*ICAO: International Civil Aviation Organization,System Description,Current Version Scripts and executables for each application (radiological, volcanic ash, homeland security) Data and options hardwired,New Version Single executable Options co

4、ntrolled by unified pre- and post-processing scripts Software self-contained for easy installation at backup facilities,Meteorology,PLEASE VERIFY THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION YOU HAVE ENTERED1) ORG DESCRIPTION : SDM2) DESCRIPTION : 1 (TEST - NO ALERT)3) REGION :8 (N HEMIS - SUBGRID AVN)4) MAP CENTER LA

5、T : 50.5) MAP CENTER LON : -110.6) MAP RADIUS (DEG) : 307) VOLCANO NAME : MT_ST_HELENS8) VOLCANO LAT : 46.209) VOLCANO LON : 122.18 10) VOLCANO HEIGHT : 8363 11) ERUPTION HOUR : 12 12) ERUPTION DAY : 19 13) ERUPTION MONTH : 07 14) ERUPTION YEAR : 2004 15) ERUPTION DURATION: 01 16) ASH COLUMN TOP : 3

6、2,000ARE THE VALUES CORRECT (Y/N):,VAFTAD,PLEASE VERIFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION1) SIMULATION TYPE : Test of the RSMC Response System2) METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS : AVN3) SITE IDENTIFICATION NAME : CALVERT_CLIFFS-14) SITE LATITUDE (- is SOUTH) : 38.435) SITE LONGITUDE (- is WEST) : -76.446) (RELEAS

7、E TIME) YEAR : 20047) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH : 078) (RELEASE TIME) DAY : 199) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR : 18 10) View/Edit Advanced ParametersENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,radiological,VERIFY/EDIT ADVANCED PARAMETER SETTINGS1) RUN DURATION : 722) RELEASE DURATION : 63) EMMISION RATE : 0.1667

8、4) BASE OF RELEASE : 105) TOP OF RELEASE : 5006) POLLUTANT SPECIES : C1377) (SAMPLING START) YEAR : 20048) (SAMPLING START) MONTH : 079) (SAMPLING START) DAY : 19ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,PLEASE VERIFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION1) ORG DESCRIPTION : sdm2) RUN DESCRIPTION : Tes

9、t run of the on-demand HYSPLIT Model3) METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS : ETA4) SOURCE IDENTIFICATION NAME : TEST5) SOURCE LATITUDE (- is SOUTH) : 40.06) SOURCE LONGITUDE (- is WEST) : -90.07) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR : 20048) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH : 079) (RELEASE TIME) DAY : 19 10) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR : 19 11) RELE

10、ASE DURATION (HOURS) : 1 12) TOP OF RELEASE (METERS) : 50 13) System Priority : LOW 14) View/Edit Advanced ParametersENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,hls,VERIFY/EDIT ADVANCED PARAMETER SETTINGS1) RUN DURATION (HOURS) : 482) EMISSION RATE (MASS/HOUR) : 1.0000do not change emission rate u

11、nless it is known3) BASE OF RELEASE (METERS) : 104) (SAMPLING START) YEAR : 20045) (SAMPLING START) MONTH : 076) (SAMPLING START) DAY : 197) TOP OF CONCENTRATION OUTPUT LAYER (METERS) : 500ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS - 1 ETA (12 km) 2 High Resolution Window (4

12、 km) - ENTER MODEL DESCRIPTION NUMBER:,Current version - input menu summaries(note variability),volcanic ash,radiological,hls,New version - “review menu” summaries(note similarity),THIS IS THE REVIEW MENU. VERIFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION1) RUN DESCRIPTION : volcanic ash - test2) METEOROLOGICAL

13、 DATA : GFS3) VOLCANO NAME : ST._HELENS4) VOLCANO LATITUDE(SOUTH IS NEGATIVE) : 46.205) VOLCANO LONGITUDE (WEST IS NEGATIVE) : -122.18SUMMIT HEIGHT (enter 15 for advanced parameters)6) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR : 20047) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH : 078) (RELEASE TIME) DAY : 199) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR : 12 10) (RE

14、LEASE TIME) MINUTE : 00 11) ERUPTION DURATION (hours) : 1.0 ASH COLUMN TOP (feet) : 3200013) ASH COLUMN TOP ESTIMATED label (0=no 1=yes) : 0 14) N/A 15) View/Edit Advanced ParametersENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,THIS IS THE REVIEW MENU. VERIFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION1) RUN DES

15、CRIPTION : Test of the RSMC Response System2) METEOROLOGICAL DATA : GFS3) SITE NAME : CALVERT_CLIFFS-14) SITE LATITUDE (SOUTH IS NEGATIVE) : 38.435) SITE LONGITUDE (WEST IS NEGATIVE) : -76.446) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR : 20047) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH : 078) (RELEASE TIME) DAY : 199) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR : 1

16、8 10) (RELEASE TIME) MINUTE : 00 11) RELEASE DURATION (hours) : 6.0 12) TOP OF RELEASE (meters, minimum 10): 500 13) RESULTS BASED ON DEFAULT INITIAL VALUES label (0=no 1=yes) : 1 14) N/A 15) View/Edit Advanced ParametersENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,THIS IS THE REVIEW MENU. VERIFY/E

17、DIT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION1) RUN DESCRIPTION : Test run of the on-demand HYSPLIT Model2) METEOROLOGICAL DATA : ETA3) SITE NAME : TEST4) SITE LATITUDE (SOUTH IS NEGATIVE) : 40.5) SITE LONGITUDE (WEST IS NEGATIVE) : -90.6) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR : 20047) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH : 078) (RELEASE TIME) DAY

18、: 199) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR : 18 10) (RELEASE TIME) MINUTE : 00 11) RELEASE DURATION (hours) : 1.0 12) TOP OF RELEASE (meters, minimum 10): 5013) N/A14) N/A 15) View/Edit Advanced ParametersENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,user is prompted for inputsrun type (radiological, volcanic ash,

19、hls)event location, release/eruption height and durationmeteorology labeling information (test, etc.)then given chance to edit inputs and defaulted date/time of incident in the “Review Menu”“Advanced Parameters Menu” is last option listed in the Review Menucontains less typically changed valuesoutpu

20、t grid specs (center lat,lon, span, grid spacing, etc.)source specs (emission rate, particle/gas, deposition constants, half-life, etc.)model specs (puff/particle/combination, number of particles, etc.)not all features are available in all run types, but could easily be addedSDMs and NWS/Alaska Avia

21、tion Weather Unit MIC have been trained in the setup script.,New Version User Input via setup_hysplit script,THIS IS THE REVIEW MENU. VERIFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION1) RUN DESCRIPTION : Test of the RSMC Response System2) METEOROLOGICAL DATA : ETA3) SITE NAME : CALVERT_CLIFFS-14) SITE LATITUDE

22、(SOUTH IS NEGATIVE) : 38.435) SITE LONGITUDE (WEST IS NEGATIVE) : -76.446) (RELEASE TIME) YEAR : 20047) (RELEASE TIME) MONTH : 078) (RELEASE TIME) DAY : 199) (RELEASE TIME) HOUR : 18 10) (RELEASE TIME) MINUTE : 00 11) RELEASE DURATION (hours) : 6.0 12) TOP OF RELEASE (meters, minimum 10): 500 13) RE

23、SULTS BASED ON DEFAULT INITIAL VALUES label (0=no 1=yes) : 1 14) N/A 15) View/Edit Advanced ParametersENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,New version - “Review Menu” radiological example,New version - “Advanced Parameters Menu” radiological example,THIS IS THE ADVANCED PARAMETERS MENU. VER

24、IFY/EDIT THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION.1) RUN DURATION (hours) : 722) EMISSION RATE (per hour) : 0.16673) BASE OF RELEASE (meters) : 104) CONCENTRATION GRID #15) N/A6) POLLUTANT : C1377) SETUP.CFG parameters8) N/A9) N/A10) N/A11) 2nd METEOROLOGY (use after ETA): undefined12) N/A13) RUN SEQUENCE NUMBER :

25、 0114) Override label CALVERT_CLIFFS-1 to TEST (0=no 1=yes) : 0ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,VERIFY/EDIT CONC GRID #1 PARAMETER SETTINGS1) (SAMPLING START) YEAR : 20042) (SAMPLING START) MONTH : 073) (SAMPLING START) DAY : 194) TOP OF CONCENTRATION OUTPUT LAYER (m) : 5005) CENTER OF

26、CONCENTRATION GRID LATITUDE : 38.436) CENTER OF CONCENTRATION GRID LONGITUDE : -76.447) CONC GRID SPACING (decimal degrees) DLAT : 0.38) CONC GRID SPACING (decimal degrees) DLON : 0.39) CONC GRID SPAN (degrees) SPLAT : 90.10) CONC GRID SPAN (degrees) SPLON : 180.11) OUTPUT AVERAGING TIME (hours) : 2

27、412) N/AENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,New version - Advanced Parameters submenus radiological,VERIFY/EDIT POLLUTANT PARAMETER SETTINGS1) POLLUTANT ID : C1372) SET ALL DEFAULT DEPOSITION VALUES3) DRY DEPOSITION VELOCITY (m/s) : .0014) WET DEPOSITION IN-CLOUD (L/L) : 3.2E+55) WET DEPOS

28、ITION BELOW-CLOUD (/s) : 5.0E-56) RADIOACTIVE HALF-LIFE (days) : 10960.ENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,New version - Advanced Parameters submenus radiological (cont),VERIFY/EDIT SETUP.CFG PARAMETER SETTINGS1) INITD (initial distribution) : 42) KHMAX (maximum part duration, h) : 99993)

29、NUMPAR (number of part to release): 5004) ISOT (turbulence) : 05) NDUMP (write PARDUMP) : 06) KMSL (starting height reference): 07) reset defaultsENTER NUMBER TO EDIT OR (Y) TO ACCEPT VALUES:,New version - Advanced Parameters submenus radiological (cont),New Version Output post-processing,dependent

30、on requirement/customerpostscript, GIF, G3, GIS shapefile, GRIB for NAWIPS,Radiological Application,Current Version HYSPLIT 4.2, Nov 1999 100-km GFS on demand Limited input in setup script,New Version HYSPLIT 4.7, Dec 2003 1-deg GFS pre-processed and/or ETA-12, NMM-4 More options in “advanced” menu

31、Improved model physics Gaussian random numbers Non-homogeneous turbulence correction (stays well mixed) Option to use of ETA TKE fields Turbulent velocities for 3D dispersion Latitude-longitude input data grids Dynamic array allocation Multi-processor simulations,Radiological Example (shows sensitiv

32、ity of dispersion to deformation field),Current Version (AVN),New Version (ETA),Volcanic Ash Application,Current Version VAFTAD code last revised 1999 190-km GFS hemispheric grids Fixed 1-h integration time step Fixed particle size and mass distributions Choice of fixed eruption durations from 1 to

33、24 hours Pre-configured map domains Internal pressure coordinate system Model rerun for ash reductions,New Version HYSPLIT 4.7, Dec 2003 1-deg global GFS pre-processed and/or ETA-12 Variable integration time step (usually 12 min) Particle initialization set in model control file Eruption durations f

34、rom smallest model time step to run duration permitted Automatic map optimization and scaling Internal terrain following coordinate system Ash reduction done automatically,Volcanic Ash Example Soufrierre Hills, Montserrat Dec 1997,Current Version (VAFTAD),New Version (HYSPLIT),composite layer showna

35、rchived meteorology,Valid 12 UTC Dec 26,Valid 18 UTC Dec 26,Volcanic Ash Example (cont.),New Version (HYSPLIT, archived meteorology),Valid 15 UTC Dec. 26,VAAC analysis,Homeland Security Applications,Current Version HYSPLIT version 4.x Fine scale output every 3h (+3h to +12h) Coarse output every 6h (

36、+18h to +48h),New Version HYSPLIT 4.7, Dec 2003 Fine scale output every 1h (+1h to +4h) Coarse output every 3h (+7h to +22h),Homeland Security Example,Current Version,New Version,Future Upgrades Currently Being Tested,Extend existing CONUS Eta to +84 hours Additional meteorological data grids Eta ov

37、er Alaska/North Pacific CONUS Eta grid with hourly fields Higher resolution GFS (0.5 deg) Convert from pressure NMM to native sigma coordinates Output grids Hourly volcanic ash output for NAWIPS Host RSMC web page at NCEP Model Physics Automatic particle-puff transformations Short-range dispersion a

38、lgorithms Partitioning TKE between horizontal and vertical Ensemble dispersion forecasts based on NCEP short-range and global ensembles,Potential New Applications,Forest fire smoke transport and dispersion Simple ozone chemistry (3-equation steady state or 7-equation differential solution) PM10 air concentrations from dust storms 2-D transport on water surfaces Internal offset trajectory based ensemble Satellite “assimilation”,