Ag Econ 635 Topics in Consumer Demand AnalysisState .ppt

1、Ag Econ 635 Topics in Consumer Demand Analysis State Adjustment Model Dr. Oral Capps, Jr. Texas A&M University Spring 2008,Dynamics of Consumer Expenditures: Application of Complete Demand Systems,Introduction Non-technical description of dynamic demand systems Dynamic models provide information on

2、adjustment, habit, and inventory featuresObjectives: Justification of dynamic demand systems Description of methods to incorporate dynamic structures into demand systems Description of state adjustment model and dynamic linear expenditure model Empirical examples,Justification Static Demand Systems:

3、By assumption consumer adjustment instantaneously to new equilibria due to changes in income or price, while all other factors remain constant.Dynamic Demand Systems: Permit processes of gradual adjustment to changes not only in the economic environment but also to changes in tastes and preferences;

4、 account for adjustments that occur through time due to habit persistences or stock adjustments.,Incorporation of Dynamic Structures into Demand Systems (1) Ad Hoc Proceduresaddition of trend variables to the demand equations introduction of trend variables into the parameters of modelsstate adjustm

5、ent model(2) Dynamic Utility Functionscertain parameters of the utility function depend on past consumptionQuadratic ModelDynamic Linear Expenditure Model Translog Demand ModelAlmost Ideal Demand System(3) Control Theory FormatMaximization of a discounted utility function subject to wealth andstock

6、constraintsPhlips (1974)Lluch (1974)Klijn (1977),examples,examples,Popular Dynamic Models( 1) State Adjustment Model: Houthakker and Taylor (1970)A directly specified demand systemSIT = physical stock or psychological stockI= stock coefficient ( 0 for psychological stocks)I = autonomous consumption

7、levelsKI, VI = short-run derivatives of consumption with respect to income and price= rate of change in stock of commodity II = depreciation rateI - I = reaction or adjustment coefficient,(2) Dynamic Linear Expenditure SystemDemand functions arise from maximization of utility functionI, I underlying

8、 structural parametersTo derive long-run conditions in both models, assume = 0 which implies that the stock adjustment has reached an equilibrium state; consequently, impacts of changes in income and/or prices can be analyzed into short-term and long-term effects.,Empirical Examples Green, Hassan, a

9、nd Johnson (1978) Analysis of consumer expenditures, four groups:(1) durables(2) semi-durables(3) non-durables(4) servicesStructure of consumer behavior in Canada1947-72 State adjustment model Dynamic linear expenditure model,The Role of Inventories and Habits on Elasticities Habit formation relativ

10、e to inventory behavior decreases as the time interval decreases With short time periods such as a month, inventory behavior tends to dominate demand relationships If inventory adjustment dominates in the short-run, the elasticity of demand generally increases as the time interval is shortened. Paso

11、ur & Schrimper the relative importance of inventory behavior with respect to the length of the adjustment period is an empirical question, & its importance can vary form commodity to commodity. The State Adjustment Model (Houthakker and Taylor) Key Point: past behavior is embodied in a state variabl

12、e, encompassing both stocks held by consumers and habits formed by past consumption The model has two equations:(1) A short-run demand function(2) A stock depreciation equation Example: Consumer demand for beef, pork, chicken (from Wohlgenant & Hahn, AJAE 1982.),(1)(2)Stocks depreciate at a declinin

13、g geometric rate over time Si the state of the ith commodity Pi the real (deflated) price of the ith commodity y per capita real consumer income qi per capita consumption of the ith meat commodity If the inventory effect dominates Bi 0) The state variable in equation (1) is unobservable, but can be

14、estimated with equation (2). The two respective equations are formulated in continuous time, so it is necessary for empirical implementation to approximate them by discrete time.,Replace (following Winder; Houthakker and Taylor; Phlips)and replace,After many tedious steps of algebra,More compactly,T

15、he structural parameter i is over-identified. A unique estimate of i is obtained if the following restrictions hold:,Long-Run derivatives obtained by setting,Reaction or adjustment coefficient,If habit persistence dominates, the long-run elasticities will be larger than the short-run elasticities. If inventory behavior is dominant, the short-run elasticities will be larger.,Nerloves Partial Adjustment Model,Test H0: i = 2 (partial adjustment model is same as state adjustment model.),