Analysis and Challenges of the African Energy Sector and .ppt

1、Analysis and Challenges of the African Energy Sector and Potential for Sustainable Bio-Energy Options by Stephen Karekezi, Waeni Kithyoma & Ken Muzee AFREPREN/FWD, Nairobi ,Kenya www.afrepren.org,Outline,Key messagesBrief overview of African Energy sector Key challenges facing the energy sector in A

2、fricaBiofuels key drivers & benefitsBrief discussion of key problems/trade-offs Brief review of key biofuel options Biogas Bio-ethanol Biodiesel Biomass gasification Biomass cogenerationSelected case example Biomass cogeneration Mauritius,Key Messages,For Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa: Speci

3、al challenge of addressing trade-offs in context of high poverty levels and inadequate food supply and limited access to modern energy services as well as large number of land-locked oil-importers. For Africa, especially sub-Saharan Africa: GHG mitigation a lower level concern with greater interest

4、in adaptation capacity. Food security switching of land from food production to energy crops: Fewer problems with existing plantations (e.g. sugar cane) that use agro-waste or by-products. Bigger problem is reliance of Africa on food imports.Environmental risks water use, mono-crops thus reducing bi

5、o-diversity, displacing subsistence agriculture into marginal and forest lands: Continues to be a problem particularly water but greater difficulties with respect to green-field new investments. Benefit sharing who benefits? Agro-industries, farmers: Large and small scale), oil industry which is inc

6、reasingly interested in biofuels? Revenue sharing combined with an open political system and sound government institutions has allowed benefits to be widely shared. These pre-requisites are not found in many sub-Saharan African countriesTechnological development can local industry develop autonomous

7、 and independent biofuels know-how or would it simply entrench existing unequal relationships in technology know-how and access? Technological transfer and development appears to have taken place, important for strengthening capacity to adapt to climate change,Energy Consumption in Africa,* Biomass

8、refers to combustible renewables (mainly fuelwood, charcoal and agro-residues) and waste Source: IEA, 2008,Sub-regional Energy Consumption Africa Best Understood As Three Regions,North Africa (heavily reliant on oil and gas) South Africa (heavily reliant on coal, oil and gas) Sub-Saharan Africa (lar

9、gely reliant on traditional biomass),Key Energy Challenges Facing Africa,Although very low, modern energy consumption on a per capita basis is decliningElectricity supplies failing to keep pace with growth in demandLow electrification level & very slow increase in number of connections lower than po

10、pulation growth in most sub-Saharan African countriesOil prices doubled in 1 year increasing transport cost. High & volatile oil prices = balance of payments problems for oil importing African countries. High oil prices combined with decreasing share of hydro in power supply of sub-Saharan Africa (p

11、artly a result of privatization) has spread oil crises to power sector. In 2007 alone, energy crisis in 2/3rd of Africa - frequent and extended electricity outages partly due to drought & inadequate power generation (power available 2-3 days a week),$,Modern Energy Consumption Per Capita Declining i

12、n most of Africa,A few successes Botswana, Senegal, Kenya, Ghana, Mauritius, Ghana, Seychelles, Namibia, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt & S. Africa,Generation Capacity Shortfall Reported Power Crises in Africa,Ongoing: Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Ghana, Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Liberia, Bur

13、undi, South AfricaClose to 30 countries facing major power problemsSome countries power sector in relative good shape: Mauritius, Kenya, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Libya & Morocco,Most African Countries Import Oil,In 2005, there were 39 net oil importers and 10 net oil-exportersGrowing share of export

14、s used to import oilSignificant oil exporters rely on imported refined oil productsShrinking oil reserves in oil exporting countries,Biofuels Key Drivers Oil Imports as a Percentage of Total Imports,Oil Imports as a Percentage of Total Imports,Source: AfDB,2006 - Computed using IEA data,Biofuels Key

15、 Drivers Remaining Years of Oil Extraction,Source: AfDB,2006 - Computed using African Development Bank data,Biofuels Key Drivers/Benefits,Rising oil costs (recently peaked to above $140/barrel talk of $200 to $300/barrel). Even if high prices are transitory, impact on weak & vulnerable sub-Saharan A

16、frican countries is huge Declining biofuels production costs ethanol Export potential of biofuels (although increasingly questioned, European Commission biofuels targets appear to present lucrative export market but could entrench external export dependency which has contributed to food supply vulne

17、rability),Biofuels- Key Drivers & Benefits,Can be reliable, local and sustainable source of energy, important for continent with young and growing population Can reduce greenhouse gas emissions Can be an important source of jobs Existing agro/forestry industries have skills and capital to produce bi

18、ofuels at competitive costs,Source: Earthlife Africa/SECCP report 2003,Job creation potential of biofuels,Key Problems/Trade-Offs,Food security switching of land from food production to energy cropsEnvironmental risks water use, mono-crops thus reducing bio-diversity, displacing subsistence agricult

19、ure into marginal and forest landsBenefit sharing who benefits? Agro-industries, farmers (large and small scale), oil industry which is increasingly interested in biofuels?Technological development can local industry develop autonomous and independent biofuels know-how or would it simply entrench ex

20、isting unequal relationships in technology know-how and access?,Biogas Status and Trends,Some experience in the region with mixed resultsInstitutional digesters more successful than domestic unitsTanzania has registered good progress - more than 4,000 domestic-size biogas plants have been in Tanzani

21、a during the past 20 yearsPilot biogas projects implemented in Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Sudan Biogas in prisons initiative in Rwanda awarded Ashden Award in 2005,Bioethanol Status and Trends,Widely developed in the regionLinked mainly to sugar industry and cogenerationEthanol produced in Kenya, U

22、ganda and Ethiopia Plans to produce ethanol in Sudan. Kenana has target of 70 million litres by 2014 Finchaa in Ethiopia produces 8 million litres annually Ethanol blending practiced in Kenya in the past Ethiopian government signed agreement with petroleum importers for minimum blending target of 5%

23、,Biodiesel Status and Trends,Significant interest in bio-dieselLots of pilot schemes with land allocation to interested investors acceleratingTechnology still to be proven on a wide scale A number of crops already grown in the region suited for biodiesel production i.e. palm oil, sunflower, soyabean

24、, maize and Jatropha Pilot biodiesel projects in numerous African countries,Biomass Gasification Status and Trends,Largely embryonic- no large-scale bio-gasification projects running in the region A few donor funded demonstration projects implemented Demonstration projects implemented in Tanzania (T

25、anzania Wood Industry Corporation) Biomass gasifiers implemented in Ethiopia, Sudan faced operational challenges Muzizi tea estate in Uganda has had some success. Replaced fossil fuel generator with gasifier generating 200kW. First application of more than 10kW in East Africa,Biomass Cogeneration St

26、atus and Trends,Widely developed in the region - Most sugar industries in eastern Africa currently practicing co-generation for own useImportant option as agriculture and agro-industries account for close to 50% of sub-Saharan Africas GDP and over 70% of employmentSugar industry directly or indirect

27、ly impact on 4-7 million people in Western parts of KenyaCould be replicated across all agro-industries Wood/timber, pulp and paper Coffee, sisal, palm oil, tea, cocoa, tobacco, etc,Key Problems/Trade-Offs,Food security switching of land from food production to energy crops: Bio-ethanol & co-generat

28、ion using by-products but switching of land affecting food production appears to have occurred in many sugar growing areas but mitigated by increased revenues from sugar cane sales and employment in sugar industry.Environmental risks water use, mono-crops thus reducing bio-diversity, displacing subs

29、istence agriculture into marginal and forest lands: Continues to be a problem for most agro-industrial crops such as sugar cane.Benefit sharing who benefits? Agro-industries, farmers (large and small scale), oil industry which is increasingly interested in biofuels? Primarily agro-industries and to

30、some extent farmers particularly in countries that practise out-growers schemes with sound revenue sharing schemes.Technological development can local industry develop autonomous and independent biofuels know-how or would it simply entrench existing unequal relationships in technology know-how and a

31、ccess? Agro-industries have developed substantial indigenous know-how but still very dependent on external technology suppliers. Relatively better placed to deal with climate adaptation needs.,Case Study 1: Cogeneration in Mauritius,Successful in sale of power to grid Accounts for close to 40% of na

32、tional generation capacity (of which 25% bagasse) Began with smaller installations (1.5MW - 5MW, now installing 82MW plants) Grid connected cogeneration operational in Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and plans underway in Malawi, Ethiopia, Swaziland and South Africa,Cogeneration in Mauritius,Coge

33、neration in Mauritius,Cogeneration in Mauritius,Land Area Under Cane in Mauritius vs. Electricity Output from Sugar Industry,Source: MSIRI, 2006,Key Problems/Trade-Offs Mauritius Case Example,Food security switching of land from food production to energy crops: Increased incomes from agriculture and

34、 bio-energy has allowed higher food imports resulting in higher food security. Reduced land requirements arising from higher efficiency has opened land for other food crops.Environmental risks water use, mono-crops thus reducing bio-diversity, displacing subsistence agriculture into marginal and for

35、est lands: Continues to be a problem particularly water but higher incomes from agriculture and bio-energy has allowed Mauritius to invest in conservation which in turn, promotes tourism and development of other economic sectors such as textiles, IT and financial services.Benefit sharing who benefit

36、s? Agro-industries, farmers: Large and small scale), oil industry which is increasingly interested in biofuels? Revenue sharing combined with an open political system and sound government institutions has allowed benefits to be widely shared. These pre-requisites are not found in many sub-Saharan Af

37、rican countries.Technological development can local industry develop autonomous and independent biofuels know-how or would it simply entrench existing unequal relationships in technology know-how and access? Technological transfer and development appears to have taken place with Mauritius selling it

38、s know-how to other African countries and investing in agro-industry and bio-energy in mainland Africa. Substantial increase in its climate adaptation capability.,Key Policy Recommendations,Greenfield vs Existing Agro-Investments: Focus on existing agro-industries, encouraging use of by-products & w

39、aste products. Be more careful with greenfield new investments.Existing crops vs new crops: Better to lean towards to existing proven crops such as sugar cane and be more careful with new crops such as Jathropha.Revenue sharing/land issue: Land ownership is key to revenue sharing. In near term, best

40、 to lean towards outgrowers scheme where land remains in hands of small scale farmers.,Key Policy Recommendations,Standard Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): contributed to success of bagasse cogeneration in MauritiusPredetermined feed-in tariffs for biomass electricity: Kenya and Uganda recently int

41、roduced feed-in tariffs for electricity generated from renewable energy sourcesMandatory Blending ratios: Best restricted to by-products and waste products to avoid any food-fuel conflictsTargets: should be realistic, home-grown and local, and promote incremental contribution of biofuels to energy supply (e.g. 10% - 20% blending targets using by-products and waste products),