Ch. 9- Money, the Price Level, and Inflation.ppt

1、Ch. 9: Money, the Price Level, and Inflation,9,Definition of money and its functions Economic functions of banks and other depository institutions Structure and function of the Federal Reserve System Creation of money by the banking system Demand for money, the supply of money, and the nominal inter

2、est rate Link between quantity of money, the price level and inflation,What is Money?,Anything that is generally acceptable as a means of payment. Commodity Moneygold dust, tobacco, cigarettes in POW campProblems transactions cost; perishable; value fluctuates.Coins with precious metalGold value of

3、metal fluctuates.Greshams Law: Bad money drives out good (more later).Fiat money,MONEY IN U.S. HISTORY,U.S. constitution gave Congress sole right to “coin money and regulate value thereof“. Illegal for states to coin money. Bi-metallic standard initially. In the 1792 coin act, a $1 coin was quoted i

4、n terms of both silver and gold. 24.75 grains of gold =$1 371.25 grains of silver = $1,GRESHAMS LAW,“Bad money drives out good“ Prior to 1834, 24.75 grains of gold was worth more than 371.25 grains of silver. Only silver coins circulated (a “silver standard“ by default). After 1834, the reverse was

5、true (a “gold standard“ by default). If gold coin has 10 grains and silver has 30 grains, what happens if gold price is 5 times silver price? 2 times silver price? What happens to coin circulation if price of its metal rises relative to other metals? Wizard of Oz and bimetallic standard,Functions of

6、 Money,Medium of Exchange Generally accepted in exchange for goods and services. Without money, trade is barter system. Barter requires a double coincidence of wants makes it costly. Unit of Account An agreed measure for stating the value of goods and services.,3 Functions of Money,Store of Value Mo

7、ney can be held for a time and later exchanged for goods and services. Can be poor store of value Inflation No interest,HISTORY OF BANKING,Initially banks formed as “safekeeping” institutions. Gradually evolved to serve several functions: Create liquidityMinimize the cost of obtaining fundsMinimize

8、the cost of monitoring borrowersPool risks,HISTORY OF BANKING,States could not print or mint money, but privately owned banks could if licensed by the state government. Banks printed notes that were backed by gold or silver easier to tradeavoided problems with weighing banks found it profitable to p

9、rint more notes than they had “reserves“ (gold/silver) for and loaned out the extra notes. Fractional reserve banking was started. Fractional reserve banking poses problems if there is a bank run.,Assets Liabilities Reserves (gold) 100 Notes 100 Total 100 100Banks would print notes beyond reserves a

10、nd extend loans. Reserves 100 Notes 1000 Loans 900 _ Total 1000 1000,With “fractional reserve banking”, the banking system “creates money” and lends it out.has only a fraction of liabilities on reserve. cannot satisfy customers demands if all want to withdraw deposits at once. Source of “bank panics

11、”. News that loans are not likely to be paid back, customers will make a “run” on the bank. Droughts.Stock market crash. Effect of bank panic on economy?,Bank Panics and Deposit Insurance,7 major bank panics in the U.S. in the 1800s 2 in the early 1900s. Onset of the great depression in the 1930s, a

12、nother bank panic occurred. In 1934, the federal government established FDIC to help reduce spread of bank panics. Deposit insurance has reduced bank panics in the U.S. Problems with deposit insurance Incentives created for risk taking. The 1985 Home State experience in Ohio.,Bank Objectives.,Goal o

13、f any bank is to maximize wealth of its owners.To accomplish this, must consider: Attracting deposits to make loans possible. Choosing loan portfolio and balance risk versus return. Liquidity Service quality, fees, etc.,Bank Objectives.,Risk, Return, and Liquidity. Liquid assets (low risk, low retur

14、n)U.S. government Treasury bills and commercial bills 2. Investment securities longerterm U.S. government bonds and other bonds 3. Loans (higher risk, higher return)commitments of fixed amounts of money for agreed-upon periods of time,Federal Reserve System,Established in 1913 by the Federal Reserve

15、 Act. First central bank of the United States Conducts monetary policy and regulates banks. Aims to stabilize the macroeconomy. Structure The Board of GovernorsThe 12 regional Federal Reserve banksFederal Open Market Committee,The Federal Reserve System,Board of Governors 7 members appointed by the

16、president and confirmed by Senate. Terms are for 14 years The president appoints one member to a four-year term as chairman. Regional Banks Each of the 12 Federal Reserve Regional Banks has a nine-person board of directors and a president. Monitors economic conditions within district and regulates b

17、anks Clearinghouse for checks and replacement of currency,The Federal Reserve System,Federal Open Market Committee FOMC is the main policy-making group in the Federal Reserve System. Consists of the members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the 11

18、presidents of other regional Federal Reserve banks of whom, on a rotating basis, 4 are voting members. The FOMC meets every six weeks to formulate monetary policy.,Components of the Money Supply,Bank reserves bank deposits at the Federal Reserve + cash Monetary base currency held by the nonbank publ

19、ic + bank reserves. M1 currency outside banks, travelers checks, and checking deposits owned by individuals and businesses. M2 M1 plus time deposits, savings deposits, and money market mutual funds and other deposits.,How do banks create money?,Suppose that there is $100 million of cash and no bank

20、system. A bank now begins and $90 million of cash is deposited in the bank in exchange for checking account (demand deposit) balances. The banks owners invest $5 million in plant and equipment and thus have $5 million of owners equity. The banks balance sheet is now:,How do banks create money?,Note:

21、 The balance sheet requires that total assets equal total liabilities.,How do banks create money?,Fed sets a reserve ratio (lets suppose its 25%). Implying bank must have 25% of its demand deposits on reserve. Reserves = cash in bank + deposits at Fed. Bank can increase demand deposits by creating n

22、ew loans to customers until it no longer has any excess reserves. required reserves = rr * demand deposits Maximum demand deposits = (1/rr) * reserves,How do banks create money?,Note: The bank system created $270 million of additional money by creating new demand deposits for borrowers (loans). This

23、 assumes that none of the new loans/demand deposits are withdrawn as cash.,How Banks Create Money,Deposits lead to a multiplier effect on M1 as banks convert a $1 deposit into several dollars of demand deposits. To illustrate, assume rr=25% A new deposit of $100,000 is made. The bank keeps $25,000 i

24、n reserve and lends $75,000. This loan is credited to someones bank deposit. The person spends the deposit and another bank now has $75,000 of extra deposits. This bank keeps $18,750 on reserve and lends $56,250.,How Banks Create Money,The process continues and keeps repeating with smaller and small

25、er loans at each “round.”,How do banks create money?,Summary of money creation process.monetary base = nonbank cash + bank reserves M1 = nonbank cash + demand dep.Maximum DD = (1/rr) * bank reservesThe Fed controls the money supply through its control over the monetary base and the deposit multiplie

26、r (1/rr).,Fed Tools,Open market operations. The Fed buys (sells) government securities in the open market to increase (decrease) the money supply. Discount window lending. The Fed loans reserves to member banks and charges the discount rate. Reserve requirements. The Fed sets the required reserve ra

27、tio. Rarely used.,OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS.,If the Fed wants to increase the amount of bank reserves buy government securities from member banks banks give up government bonds and receive deposit at the Fed or cash. More recently, Fed has purchased commercial paper from banks new policy! By buying gov

28、ernment securities Fed created new reserves that multiply into new loans and demand deposits (remember the deposit multiplier). If the Fed sold government securities, reserves and M1 would decrease.,Changes in the money supply,Suppose the Fed purchases $10 m. of government securities. What is the ef

29、fect on: Loans Demand deposits M1,Assuming banks loan out all excess reserves, if the Fed purchases $10 million of government securities, total loans will,increase by $10 million. increase by $40 milliondecrease by $10 million. None of the above.,Assuming banks loan out all excess reserves, if the F

30、ed purchases $10 million of government securities, M1 will,increase by $10 million. increase by $40 million Increase by $30 million. None of the above.,DISCOUNT WINDOW LENDING.,The Fed lends banks reserves at the “discount rate”. The higher the discount rate, the less likely banks are to borrow rese

31、rves to increase the money supply. The federal funds rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other for a loan of reserves. The federal funds rate tracks the discount rate fairly closely. If the Fed wants to increase reserves in the system, it would lower the discount rate.,THE RESERVE REQUI

32、REMENT.,If the Fed increases the reserve requirement the deposit multiplier (1/rr) falls the amount of demand deposits that banks can create for a given amount of reserves is reduced. Note: you may ignore the “money multiplier” discussed in text. Focus only on “deposit multiplier”,Changes in the mon

33、ey supply,Suppose the Fed reduces the rr to 20% What is the effect on: Loans Demand deposits M1,If the reserve ratio is cut from 25 to 20%, M1 will,Not change Increase by $18 million Increase by $90 million None of the above.,OTHER FACTORS INFLUENCING THE MONEY SUPPLY,The amount of cash people choos

34、e to hold Cash in bank multiplies Cash outside bank does not. The type of deposits people make. the reserve requirement is higher on demand deposits (about 3%) than on certificates of deposit. If people switch between different types of accounts, the “average” reserve requirement and money multiplie

35、r will change. Bank holdings of excess reserves,Changes in the money supply: Cash held by public,Suppose the public withdraws $10m. Of DD as cash. What is the effect on: Loans Demand deposits M1,M1 would increase if,The Fed increases the required reserve ratio The Fed purchases government securities

36、 The public decides to hold less money as demand deposits and more as cash All of the above,If banks decide to hold more money as excess reserves, M1 will _ and bank loans will _,Increase; increase Increase; decrease Decrease; decrease Decrease; increase,Total Bank Reserves: 1980-2009,MONETARY BASE:

37、1983-2009,M1: 1980-2009,EXCESS RESERVES: 1980-2009,The Market for Money,The Demand for Money relationship between the quantity of real money demanded and the nominal interest rate when all other influences on the amount of money that people wish to hold remain the same The Demand for Money Holding T

38、he quantity of money that people plan to hold depends on four main factors:The nominal interest rate The price level Real GDP Financial innovation,The demand for money,The Nominal Interest Rate the opportunity cost of holding wealth in the form of money rather than an interest-bearing asset. Increas

39、e in the nominal interest rate on other assets decreases the quantity of real money that people plan to hold.,The demand for money,The Price Level An increase in the price levelincreases the quantity of nominal money people wish to hold, doesnt change the quantity of real money demanded. Real money

40、equals nominal money price level. 10 percent increase in P increases the quantity of nominal money demanded by 10 percent. Real GDP Increase in real GDP increases increases the quantity of real money that people plan to hold.,The demand for money,Financial Innovation that lowers the cost of switchin

41、g between money and interest-bearing assets decreases the quantity of real money that people plan to hold. Summary of money demand factorsNominal interest rate Price level Real GDP (income)Financial innovation,Equilibrium interest rate,The Market for Money,Short-Run Equilibrium Suppose that the Feds

42、 interest rate target is 5 percent a year. The Fed adjusts the quantity of money each day to hit its interest rate target.,If the Fed purchases government bonds from the banking system, interest rates will _,Fall because money supply increases Rise because money demand increases Fall because money d

43、emand decrease None of the above,If the economy enters a recession and real GDP falls, interest rates will:,Fall as money demand decreases Fall as money supply increases Rise as money supply decreases None of the above,If the Fed wants to stimulate spending by cutting interest rates, it could:,Purch

44、ase government bonds Cut the required reserve ratio Lower the discount rate All of the above,The Market for Money,Long-Run Equilibrium In the long run, the loanable funds market determines the interest rate.Nominal interest rate equals the equilibrium real interest rate plus the expected inflation r

45、ate.,The Quantity Theory of Money,V=velocity P=price level Y=real GDP M=quantity of money The equation of exchange states that MV = PY Expressing the equation of exchange in growth rates: % ch in M + % ch in V = % ch in P + % ch in Y % ch in P = % ch in M + % ch in V - % ch in Y,The Quantity Theory

46、of Money,Quantity theory of money In the long run, velocity does not change, so Inflation rate = Money growth rate Real GDP growth,The Quantity Theory of Money,International evidence shows a marked tendency for high money growth rates to be associated with high inflation rates.Evidence for 134 countries from 1990 to 2005.,According to the equation of exchange, which of the following will lead to greater inflation?,Decreased velocity of money Faster growth of the money supply Faster growth of real GDP All of the above,