API PUBL 4617-1995 Monte Carlo Approach to Generating Equivalent Ventilation Rates in Population Exposure Assessments《室外暴露评估中用蒙特卡洛方法产生当量通风率》.pdf

1、 - API PUBLX4617 95 0732290 0545459 OT9 W American 7 Petroleum Institute Emnnrvl FmdrJi) *E: A Monte Carlo Approach to Generating Equivalent Ventilation Rates in Population Exposure Assessments Health and Environmental Sciences Department Publication Number 4617 March 1995 API PUBL*4b17 95 O732290 0

2、5454b0 documenting performance improvements; and communicating them to the public. The foundation of STEP is the API Environmental Mission and Guiding Environmental Principles. API ENVIRONMENTAL MISSION AND GUIDING ENVIRONMENTAL PRINCIPLES The members of the American Petroleum Institute are dedicate

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10、o others who produce, handle, use, transport or dispose of similar raw materials, petroleum products and wastes. A Monte Carlo Approach to Generating Equivalent Ventilation Rates in Population Exposure Assessments Health and Environmental Sciences Department API PUBLICATION NUMBER 4617 PREPARED UNDE

11、R CONTRACT BY: TED JOHNSON AND MICHAEL MCCOY, JR. IT CORPORATION 371 O UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SUITE 201 DURHAM, NC 27707 JANUARY 1995 American Petroleum Ins ti tu te API PUBLX4617 95 0732290 0545462 693 FOR E WORD API PUBLICATIONS NECESSARILY ADDRESS PROBLEMS OF A GENERAL NATURE. WITH RESPECT TO PARTICUL

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14、THING CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION BE CONSTRUED AS INSURING ANYONE AGAINST LIABIL ITY FOR INFRINGEMENT OF LETTERS PATENT. Copyright 8 1995 American Petroleum institute i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS THE FOLLOWING PEOPLE ARE RECOGNIZED FOR THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS OF TIME AND EXPERTISE DURING THIS STUDY AND IN THE PRE

15、PARATION OF THIS REPORT: API STAFF CONTACT Will Ollison, Health and Environmental Sciences Department MEMBERS OF THE EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT MULTI-YEAR TASK FORCE Jack Hinton, Texaco Lewis Cook, Chevron Lee Gilmer, Texaco Charles Lapin, ARCO Donald Molenaar, Unocal Joseph Yang, Mobil RANCHO LOS AMIGOS M

16、EDICAL CENTER William Linn iii API PUBL*4bL 95 0732290 0545464 4bb CONTRACTOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report describes a research project conducted by IT Air Quality Services (ITAQS) for the American Petroleum Institute (API). The project consisted of eight work elements: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. acquis

17、ition of four time/activity databases in which each documented diary event is associated with a measured pulse rate, acquisition of clinical data relating subject pulse rate to ventilation rate, statistical analysis of clinical data to determine appropriate procedures for converting pulse rate to eq

18、uivalent ventilation rate (EVR), conversion of each pulse-rate database into a corresponding database listing EVR by diary event, statistical analysis of each EVR database to identify factors that affect EVR, development of algorithms for predicting EVR according to population group, testing of each

19、 algorithm by comparing model predictions with measured EVR values, and preparation of this report. Mike McCoy was the ITAQS project manager for the overall project and was primarily responsible for work elements 1,2,4, and 7. Ted Johnson was ITAQS technical director for the project and had primary

20、responsibility for work elements 3,5,6, and 8. Doug Brinson assisted with work element 3. Joan Abernethy typed the report. ITAQS work on this project was funded by API under ITAQS Project No. 465063-8. Dr. Will Ollison served as the API task assignment manager and provided technical guidance through

21、out the task. The authors would like to express their appreciation to William Linn of the Rancho Los Amigos Medical Center for providing the databases acquired in work elements 2 and 3. iv API PUBL*4bL7 95 0732290 0545465 3T2 = ABSTRACT A number of researchers have developed computer-based models fo

22、r simulating the exposure of human populations to air pollution. The probabilistic version of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards Exposure Model (pNEM) is typical of these models in that it characterizes each exposure by time period and pollutant concentration. Unlike most other exposure mode

23、ls, pNEM also characterizes each exposure by a measure of respiration, the equivalent ventilation rate (EVR). EVR is defined as ventilation rate divided by body surface area. In the current version of pNEM, EVR is determined by an algorithm that randomly selects values from lognormal distributions t

24、hat are specific to age and breathing rate category. A research team directed by Jack Hackney and Wiliiam Linn conducted four studies in Los Angeles which used time/activity diaries and heart rate monitors to obtain ventilation rate data representative of typical daily activities. IT Air Quality Ser

25、vices acquired the four HackneyILinn databases and converted each into a file of EVR values, one EVR value for each diary event. Researchers analyzed these files and developed a series of algorithms for generating EVR values that are superior to those used in the current pNEM methodology. Each algor

26、ithm uses Monte Carlo (probabilistic) techniques to produce EVR values that vary according to age, gender, activity, breathing rate category (slow, medium, or fast), microenvironment, time of day, activity duration, and other variables present in the input time/activity data files. The algorithms we

27、re tested by applying them to representative timeactivity databases that contained a measured EVR value for each diary record. In each test, analysts compared the distribution of generated EVR values with the corresponding distribution of measured EVR values. Results of these tests suggest that the

28、algorithms produce realistic EVR distributions. API PUBL*4bL7 95 H 0732290 05454bb 239 H TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Paae EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . ES-I 1 . INTRODUCTION . 1-1 2 . CONSTRUCTION OF EVENT EVR FILES 2-1 ACQUISITION OF HACKNEY/LINN DATA SETS 2-1 DEVELOPMENT OF CALIBRATION CURVES FOR CONSTRUCTION

29、 WORKERS . 2-3 THE EVENT EVR FILES . 2-16 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR VENT EVR VALUES BY SUBJECT 2-18 3 . DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR CATEGORIZED EVR VALUES . 3-1 BREATHING RATE CATEGORY 3-1 ACTIVITY CATEGORY . 3-1 MICROENVIRONMENT CATEGORY . 3-9 TIME OF DAY 3-9 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR EVENT EVR VA

30、LUES BY DURATION . 3-13 4 . MONTE CARLO MODELS FOR GENERATING EVENT EVRVALUES 4-1 DATABASE TYPES 4-1 GENERAL PROCEDURE FOR MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF MONTE CARLO MODELS . 4-4 CAN DI DATE VARIABLE GROUPS . 4-5 RESULTS OF STEPWISE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSES . 4-7 THE DISTRIBUTION OF REGRESSION RESIDUALS 4-1

31、3 THE DISTRIBUTION OF LGM VALUES 4-14 ALGORITHM FOR EXECUTING THE MONTE CARLO MODEL . 4-16 API PUBLX4617 95 0732290 O545467 175 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Section Paae 5. VALIDATION OF MONTE CARLO MODELS 5-1 APPLICATION OF THE ALGORITHM TO THE HACKNEY/LINN DATABASES 5-1 6. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDAT

32、IONS . 6-1 7. REFERENCES 7-1 Appendix A A COMPARISON OF TEN TIME/ACTIVITY DATABASES: EFFECTS OF GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION, TEMPERATURE, DEMOGRAPHIC Appendix B AN ALGORITHM FOR DETERMINING MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE VENTILATION RATE ACCORDING TO GENDER, AGE, AND Appendix C GROUP, AND DIARY RECALL METHOD . A-I EXE

33、RCISE DURATION . B-I DESCRIPTIONS OF VARIABLES IN EVENT-AVERAGED EQUIVALENT VENTILATION RATE DATA BASE C-I LIST OF FIGURES Fiaure Page 2-1. 2-2. 2-3. Calibration Curves for Subject No. 1779 of the Construction Calibration Curves for Subject No. 1766 of the Construction Calibration Curves for Subject

34、 No. 1771 of the Construction Worker Study 2-1 1 Worker Study 2-12 Worker Study 2-1 3 API PUBL*4b17 95 W 0732290 0545468 O01 2-1. 2-2. 2-3. 2-4. 2-5. 2-6. 2-7. 2-8. 2-9. 2-1 o. 2-1 1. 2-12. 2-1 3. 2-14. 2-1 5. 3-1. LIST OF TABLES Page Characteristics of Four Time/Activity Studies Conducted by the De

35、scriptive Statistics for Minute Heart Rate Values Measured During the Activity Diary Phase of Construction Worker Study 2-5 Results of Fitting Four General Models to the Construction Worker Calibration Data . 2-7 Theoretical and Model-Derived Estimates of Minute Ventilation Rate (MINVR) Associated W

36、ith Three Subjects of the Construction Worker Study 2-1 5 Characteristics of the Subjects of the Elementary School Study and Associated Data Statistics 2-1 9 Characteristics of the Subjects of the High School Study and Associated Data Statistics 2-20 Characteristics of the Subjects of the Outdoor Wo

37、rker Study and Associated Data Statistics . 2-21 Characteristics of the Subjects of the Construction Worker Study and Associated Data Statistics 2-22 Data Items Included in Event EVR Files Prepared by ITAQS 2-23 by Event Obtained from Elementary School Student Study . 2-24 Event Obtained from High S

38、chool Student Study 2-25 Event Obtained from Outdoor Worker Study 2-26 Event Obtained from Construction Worker Study (Model A) . 2-27 Event Obtained from Construction Worker Study (Model C) . 2-28 Aand C) 2-29 School, and Outdoor Worker Studies) . 3-2 HackneyILinn Research Team . 2-2 Descriptive Sta

39、tistics for Equivalent Ventilation Rates Averaged Descriptive Statistics for Equivalent Ventilation Rates Averaged by Descriptive Statistics for Equivalent Ventilation Rates Averaged by Descriptive Statistics for Equivalent Ventilation Rates Averaged by Descriptive Statistics for Equivalent Ventilat

40、ion Rates Averaged by Descriptive Statistics for Equivalent Ventilation Rates Averaged by Event Obtained from Construction Worker Study (Average of Models Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Breathing Rate Category (Elementary School, High 3-2. 3-3. 3-4. 3-5. 3-6. 3-7. 3-8

41、. 3-9. 3-1 O. 3-1 1. 3-12. 4-1. 4-2. 4-3. 4-4. LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Page Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Breathing Rate Category (Construction Worker Study) 3-2 Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Activity Category (Elementary School, H

42、igh School, and Outdoor Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Microenvironment (Elementary School, High School, and Outdoor Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Geometric Means and Stand

43、ard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Beginning Clock Hour (Elementary School, High School, and Outdoor Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Worker Studies) . 3-4 Activity Category (Construction Worker Study) . 3-6 Worker Studies) 3-1 O Microenvironment (Construction Worker

44、 Study) 3-1 O Worker Studies) 3-1 1 Beginning Clock Hour (Construction Worker Study) . Descriptive Statistic for Event Durations by Study 3-1 2 3- 14 Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Duration Category (Elementary School, High School, and Outdoor Worker Studies) 3-16 Geo

45、metric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Duration Category (Elementary School, High School, and Geometric Means and Standard Deviations of Event EVR Values by Characteristics of studies associated with the 1 O time/activity databases 4-2 Outdoor Worker Studies) 3-17 Duration Categ

46、ory (Construction Worker Study) . 3-1 7 Database types 4-3 Candidate variables used in stepwise linear regression analyses elementary school data set . 4-8 4-6 Results of stepwise linear regression analyses performed on Table 4-5. 4-6. 4-7. 4-8. 4-9. 5-1. 5-2. 5-3. 5-4. 5-5. - - API PUBL*4b17 S 0732

47、270 O545470 7bT LIST OF TABLES (Continued) Page Results of stepwise linear regression analyses performed on high schools data set . 4-9 Results of stepwise linear regression analyses performed on outdoor worker data set . 4-10 Results of stepwise linear regression analyses applied to the constructio

48、n worker data set (average values) 4-1 1 Distribution of LGM and LSDRES values 4-15 Algorithm used to execute the Monte Carlo model for generating event specific values of equivalent ventilation rate . 4-17 Descriptive statistics for modeled and observed event EVR Descriptive statistics for modeled

49、and observed event EVR Descriptive statistics for modeled and observed event EVR Descriptive statistics for modeled and observed event EVR values (outdoor worker database - Subject No. 1299 omitted) 5-8 Descriptive statistics for modeled and observed event EVR values (elementary school database) 5-3 values (high school database) . 5-5 values (outdoor worker database) 5-6 values (construction worker database) 5-1 O API PUBL*4bL7 95 0732290 0545473 bTb EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the pNE