1、 OW MISSION The mission of the American Bureau of Shipping is to serve the public interest as well as the needs of our clients by promoting the security of life, property and the natural environment primarily through the development and verification of stan- dards for the design, construction and op
2、erational maintenance of marine-related facilities. POLICY It is the policy of the American Bureau of Shipping to be responsive to the individ- ual and collective needs of our clients as well as those of the public at large, to provide quality services in support of our mission, and to provide our s
3、ervices consistent with international standards developed to avoid, reduce or control pollution to the environment. All of our client commitments, supporting actions, and services delivered must be recognized as expressions of Quality We pledge to monitor our performance as an on-going activity and
4、to strive for continuous improvement. We commit to operate consistent with applicable environmental legislation and regulations and to provide a framework for establishing and reviewing environmental objectives and targets. ABS SAFEHULL and ABS SWEAAET are registered trademarks of the American Burea
5、u of Shipping. GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS FOR THE MARINE AND OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRIES JUNE 2000 American Bureau of Shipping Incorporated by Act of Legislature of the State of New York 1862 Copyright O 2000 American Bureau of Shipping ABS Plaza 16855 Northchase Drive Housto
6、n, TX 77060 USA STD.ABS 97-ENGL 2000 Ob51102 002689L 13T Foreword The mission of the American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) is to serve the public interest, as well as the needs of its clients, by promoting the security of life, property, and the natural environment primarily through the development and
7、verification of standards for the design, construction, and operational maintenance of marine-related facilities. The rules on which classification is predicated are established from principles of naval architecture, marine engineering and other engineering principles that have proven satisfactory b
8、y service experience and systematic analysis. The perceived benefits of the deterministic and prescriptive regulatory requirements were based mostly on experience, testing programs and expert judgment. The objective of these rules has always been to ensure that the probabilities of accidents with th
9、e potential for adversely affecting life, property and the natural environment are low. However this assurance was not explicit, as rules and regulations were developed without the benefit of quantitative estimates of risk. In recent years, there have been significant advances in and experience with
10、 risk assessment methodology. ABS is continually seeking the improvement of its rules and methods of analysis, and exploring the directions where the industry is headed. Thus, ABS is exploring certain changes to the development and implementation of its rules and regulations through the use of risk-
11、based, and ultimately performance-oriented, approaches. The rewards for this potential process are improved classification services and, ultimately and foremost, improved safety and productivity. The transition to a risk-based regulatory framework is expected to be incremental. Many of the present r
12、equirements are based on deterministic and prescriptive requirements that cannot be quickly replaced. Therefore, the current requirements will be maintained, while risk-based and/or performance-oriented approaches are being developed and implemented. To understand and apply this new technology, it i
13、s important that ABS, the marine community, and the public at large have a common understanding of the terms and concepts involved, and an awareness of how these concepts are to be applied to ABS rulemaking. This is the driving force for the present Guidance Notes. ABS GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSM
14、ENT 2000 i GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS FOR THE MARINE AND OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRIES CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 3 CHAPTER 4 Introduction . 1 Section 1 Purpose 3 Section 2 Background 5 Section 3 Risk Assessment Definitions . 7 Section 4 The Basics of Risk Assessment
15、11 Risk Assessment Methods . 13 Section 1 The Risk Assessment Process 15 Section 2 Hazard Identification Methods . 17 Section 3 Frequency Assessment Methods 25 Section 4 Consequence Assessment Methods . 33 Section 5 Risk Evaluation and Presentation 35 Conducting a Risk Assessment . 49 Section 1 Set
16、Up of a Risk Analysis 41 Section 2 Section 3 Conducting the Assessment and Follow-up 57 Section 4 Risk Assessment Limitations and Potential Problems 61 Marine Systems: Hazards and Safety Section 1 Overview 67 Section 2 Section 3 Potential Consequences of Shipping Accidents . 73 Section 4 Section 5 C
17、onclusions and Future Trends 81 Selecting the Right Approach 47 Regulations . 65 Major Hazards Related to Shipping . 69 Regulations Governing Safety of Shipping 75 CHAPTER 5 Offshore Oil and Gas Systems: Hazards and Section 1 Overview 87 Section 2 Major Hazards of Offshore Oil and Gas Production 89
18、Safety Regulations 85 ABS GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT 2000 Previous page is blank iii STD*ABS 37-ENGL 2000 = Ob53302 0028873 TO2 II Section 3 Historical Progression of Regulations Governing Offshore Oil and Gas Development 97 Key Nations Offshore Oil and Gas Regulatory Development . 101 Sectio
19、n 4 Section 5 Conclusions and Future Trends 105 CHAPTER 6 Benefits of Risk Assessment Applications . 107 Section I Overview 109 Section 2 Identifying Hazards and Protecting Against Them 111 Section 3 Improving Operations 115 Section 4 Efficient Use of Resources (ALARP/Cost Benefit Analysis) 119 Sect
20、ion 5 CHAPTER 7 Risk Based Inspection 129 Developing or Complying with Rules and Regulations 123 Section 1 Introduction 131 Section 2 Qualitative Screening . 133 Section 3 A Quantitative Model for Equipment with Measurable Damage Rate . 135 CHAPTER 8 Conclusions . 141 APPENDIX I References . 143 iv
21、ABS GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT 2000 CHAPTER I Introduction CONTENTS SECTION 1 SECTION 2 SECTION 3 SECTION 4 Purpose . 3 Background . 5 Risk Assessment Definitions . 7 1 Hazards or Threats 9 3 Controls 9 5 Event 9 7 Risk 9 9 Frequency 10 The Basics of Risk Assessment 11 11 Consequence . 10 ABS
22、 GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT 2000 1 STD-ABS 97-ENGL 2000 065LL02 0028895 885 CHAPTER I Introduction SECTION 1 Purpose This document is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment field for managers and technical professionals in the Maritime and Offshore Oil and Gas industries. The
23、risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation, but the methods discussed can also be applied to other types of risk. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Guidelines for
24、setting up and conducting successful risk studies are provided. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. And finally, examples of risk assessment applications are discussed. ABS GUIDANCE
25、NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT 2000 3 Previous page is blank. STD-ABS 77-ENGL 2000 Ob51102 0028876 711 I CHAPTER 1 Introduction SECTION 2 Background The ability to make wise decisions is critical to a successful business enterprise. In todays complex world, bukness decisions are seldom simple or straightf
26、orward. Components of a good making process include: i) ii) iii) iv) v) identification of a wide range of potential options (allowing for novel approaches), effectively evaluating each options relative merits, appropriate levels of input and review timely and fair decision-making methods, and effect
27、ive communication and implementation of the decision which is made. decision- Risk assessment is typically applied as an aid to the decision-making process. As options are evaluated, it is critical to analyze the level of risk introduced with each option. The analysis can address financial risks, he
28、alth risks, safety risks, environmental risks and other types of business risks. An appropriate analysis of these risks will provide information which is critical to good decision making, and will often clarifj the decision to be made. The information generated through risk assessment can often be c
29、ommunicated to the organization to help impacted parties understand the factors which influenced the decision. Risk assessment is not a new field. Formal risk assessment techniques have their origins in the insurance industry. As the industrial age progressed, and businesses began to make large capi
30、tal investments, it became a business necessity to understand the risks associated with the enterprises being undertaken and to be able to manage the risk using control measures and insurance. For insurance companies to survive, it became imperative that they be able to calculate the risks associate
31、d with the insured activities. In more recent times, in efforts to protect their citizens and natural resources, governments have become involved, requiring corporations to employ risk-reducing measures, secure certain types of insurance and even, in some cases, demonstrate that they can operate wit
32、h an acceptable level of risk. During the 1980s and 1990s, more and more governmental agencies have required industry to apply risk assessment techniques. For instance, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires new facilities to describe “worst case” and “expected” environmental release scen
33、arios as part of the permitting process. Also, the United Kingdom requires submittal of “Safety Cases” which are intended to demonstrate the level of risk associated with each offshore oil and gas production facility. As corporations have become more familiar with risk assessment techniques, these t
34、echniques are applied more frequently to improve their decision-making processes, even when there is no regulatory requirement to do so. As access to data and analytical techniques continues to improve, risk assessment will continue to become easier to perform and more applications, both mandatory a
35、nd voluntary, can be expected. ABS GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT 2000 5 Previous page is blank. STDOABS 97-ENGL 2000 II Ob5LL02 0028897 658 II CHAPTER 1 Introduction SECTION 3 Risk Assessment Definitions CONTENTS 1 Hazards or Threats . 5 Event 9 7 Risk 9 3 Controls . 9 9 Frequency 10 11 Conseque
36、nce . 1 O ABS GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT 2000 7 Previous page is blank. STD-ABS 97-ENGL 2000 Ob5LL02 0028898 594 - CHAPTER 1 Introduction SECTION 3 Risk Assessment Definitions The term “risk” is used in a variety of ways in everyday speech. We frequently refer to activities such as rock-climb
37、ing or day-trading stocks as “risky”; or discuss our “risk” of getting the flu this coming winter. In the case of rock-climbing and day-trading, “rislq” is used to mean hazardous or dangerous. In the latter reference, “risk” refers to the probability of a defined outcome (the chance of contracting t
38、he flu). Before beginning a discussion of risk assessment, it is important to provide a clear definition of the term “risk” and some of the other terminology used in the risk assessment field. For our purposes, we will limit our discussion to the risk of unintended incidents occurring which may thre
39、aten the safety of individuals, the environment or a facilitys physical assets. In this setting, we can define a number of terms: I 3 5 7 Hazards or Threats Hazards or threats are conditions which exist which may potentially lead to an undesirable event. Controls Controls are the measures taken to p
40、revent hazards Erom causing undesirable events. Controls can be physical (safety shutdowns, redundant controls, conservative designs, etc.), procedural (written operating procedures), and can address human factors (employee selection, training, supervision). Event An event is an occurrence that has
41、an associated outcome. There are typically a number of potential outcomes from any one initial event which may range in severity from trivial to catastrophic, depending upon other conditions and add-on events. Risk Now we are ready to provide a technical definition of the term risk. Risk is composed
42、 of two elements, frequency and consequence. Risk is defined as the product of the frequency with which an event is anticipated to occur and the consequence of the events outcome. Risk = Frequency x Consequence ABS GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT 2000 9 Previous page is blank. STD-ABS 97-ENGL 2000
43、 = 0651102 0028899 420 m Chapter 1 Introduction Section 3 Risk Assessment Definitions 13 9 Frequency Thefiequency of a potential undesirable event is expressed as events per unit time, usually per year. The fiequency should be determined fiom historical data if a significant number of events have oc
44、curred in the past. Often, however, risk analyses focus on events with more severe consequences (and low frequencies) for which little historical data exist. In such cases, the event fiequency is calculated using risk assessment models. 1 I Consequence Consequence can be expressed as the number of p
45、eople affected (injured or killed), property damaged, amount of spill, area affected, outage time, mission delay, dollars lost, etc. Regardless of the measure chosen, the consequences are expressed “per event”, Thus the above equation has the units “events/year” times “consequenes/event, which equal
46、s “consequences/year7, the most typical quantitative risk measure. These terms, as defined, will be used throughout this document. 10 ABS GUIDANCE NOTES ON RISK ASSESSMENT 2000 STDmABS 77-ENGL 2000 M ObSll02 0028900 T72 9 Historical experience CHAPTER 1 Introduction SECTION 4 The Basics of Risk Asse
47、ssment Analytical Knowledge and methods judgement Risk assessment is the process of gathering data and synthesizing information to develop an understanding of the risk of a particular enterprise. To gain an understanding of the risk of an operation, one must answer the following three questions: i)
48、What can go wrong? ii) How likely is it? iii) What are the impacts? Qualitative answers to one or more of these questions are often sufficient for making good decisions. However, as managers seek more detailed costhenefit information upon which to base their decisions, they may wish to use quantitat
49、ive risk assessment (QRA) methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are discussed in this document. 14Figure 1 below illustrates the elements of Risk Assessment. FIGURE I Elements of Risk Assessment Risk Understanding h How likely 1. 4 Wn,or;?go 1. 4 Whatarethe is it? impacts? L I I I I I The remainder of this document provides more details about the tools and methods available for conducting risk assessments, considerations for setting up an assessment, information about relevant regulatory requirements an
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