AASHTO CA03-4-2013 Brief 3 Population and Worker Trends.pdf

1、Brief 3. Population and Worker Trends SEPTEMBER 2013 Commuting in America 2013 The National Report on Commuting Patterns and TrendsAbout the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program Established by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and the U

2、.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT), the AASHTO Census Transportation Planning Products Program (CTPP) compiles census data on demographic characteristics, home and work locations, and journey- to-work travel flows to assist with a variety of state, regional, and local transportation policy

3、and planning efforts. CTPP also supports corridor and project studies, environmental analyses, and emergency operations management. In 1990, 2000, and again in 2006, AASHTO partnered with all of the states on pooled-fund projects to sup- port the development of special census products and data tabul

4、ations for transportation. These census transpor- tation data packages have proved invaluable in understanding characteristics about where people live and work, their journey-to-work commuting patterns, and the modes they use for getting to work. In 2012, the CTPP was established as an ongoing techn

5、ical service program of AASHTO. CTPP provides a number of primary services: Special Data Tabulation from the U.S. Census BureauCTPP oversees the specification, purchase, and delivery of this special tabulation designed by and for transportation planners. Outreach and TrainingThe CTPP team provides t

6、raining on data and data issues in many formats, from live briefings and presentations to hands-on, full-day courses. The team has also created a number of electronic sources of training, from e-learning to recorded webinars to downloadable presentations. Technical SupportCTPP provides limited direc

7、t technical support for solving data issues; the pro- gram also maintains a robust listserv where many issues are discussed, dissected, and resolved by the CTPP community. ResearchCTPP staff and board members routinely generate problem statements to solicit research on data issues; additionally, CTP

8、P has funded its own research efforts. Total research generated or funded by the current CTPP since 2006 is in excess of $1 million. Staff Penelope Weinberger, CTPP Program Manager Matt Hardy, Program Director, Policy and Planning Janet Oakley, Director of Policy and Government Relations Project Tea

9、m Steven E. Polzin, Co-Author, Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida Alan E. Pisarski, Co-Author, Consultant, Falls Church, Virginia Bruce Spear, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Liang Long, Data Expert, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Contact Penelope Weinberger,

10、 e-mail: pweinbergeraashto.org, phone: 202-624-3556; or CTPPinfoaashto.org 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. Pub Code: CA03-4 ISBN: 978-1-56051-573-9 2013 by the American Association of S

11、tate Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends This brief is the third in a series describing commuting in America. This body of work, sponsored by American A

12、ssociation of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) and carried out in conjunction with a National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) project that provided supporting data, builds on three prior Commuting in America documents that were issued over the past three decades. Unli

13、ke the prior reports that were single volumes, this effort consists of a series of briefs, each of which addresses a critical aspect of commuting in America. These briefs, taken together, comprise a compre- hensive summary of American commuting. The briefs are disseminated through the AASHTO website

14、 (transportation.org). Accompanying data tables and an Executive Sum- mary complete the body of information known as Commuting in America 2013 (CIA 2013). Changes in Population and Workforce This brief assesses where we have been and where we are going regarding the nations population and its associ

15、ated potential workforce. This workforce provides the commuters. In general, demographic change moves at a slow and predictable pace. Earlier editions of Commuting in America found that, starting in about 1950, the nation added roughly 25 million persons per decade; the census projections of that pe

16、riod indicated that it would be a relatively safe estimate for the future going out another 50 years. Figure 3-1 shows that, to- day, such an assumption is under challenge. The data show far more volatility in the actual census counts in the past two decades. The 1990s exhibited an unexpected surge

17、in popula- tion beyond Census Bureau projections due to a boom in immigrants and high immigrant fertility. The 2000s saw a sharp reversal in those same patterns, with a population increase similar to that of the 19501960 decade. More recently, changes in both immigration and fertility rates have led

18、 demographers to moderate future forecasts to below the approximate 1 percent per year or 30 million new residents per decade growth seen in the recent past. While natural growth trendsthe difference between births and deathstend to move slowly, it is not as easy to predict immigration patterns and

19、trends. Immigration is the only demographic factor that can be changed overnight by legislative actions. It also is sensitive to economic conditions, both domestically and internationally. Immigration policies can affect transportation and commuting patterns nearly immediately, given that most immi-

20、 grant arrivals are at the early stages of their working lives and enter the workforce as soon as possible. Alternatively, additions to the population by birth may add commuters 18 or 20 years later. As a result, estimates of change in total population do not fully respond to what we need to know ab

21、out the prospective workforce. What is most important is knowledge of the age distribution of the population. Brief 3. Population and Worker Trends 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.4 Comm

22、uting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends Equally relevant to our understanding of workforce size is the expected arrival of the first large wave of retirees. In 2010, the first of the baby boomers reached age 65. However, this expectation has moderated, given the d

23、ifficult economic times and lifestyle choices, which appear to be producing a greater tendency for workers to remain in the workforce after age 65. In addition, rapid growth in disability rates and evidence that chronic long-term unemployment may be removing some adults from the workforce are adding

24、 more uncertainty. Consequently, separating the cyclical from the structural trends in workforce size will be among the great challenges in understanding future workforce trends. The rel- atively stable past may not be as effective a guide to the future as it has been. These factors are assessed in

25、the following sections of this brief and will be assessed in subsequent briefs. The previous discussion treated decades as data points; Figure 3-1 shows the span of 100 years. But annual changes in the past decade, seen in Figure 3-2, showed similar volatil- ity, swinging between 2.5 and 3 million p

26、ersons per year, with net additions declining each year since 2007. As a result, the population of the United States, according to the decennial census, reached 308.7 million 1in 2010, a relatively small increase of 27.3 million over the count of 281.4 million in the year 2000. This growth is in con

27、trast to the much larger gain of 32.7 million from 1990 to 2000. The difference has been attributed largely to changes in immigration and to postponed births. Post-2010 estimates place population growth at approximately 0.7 percent per year, or in the range of 2.2 million per year. Figure 3-1. Histo

28、rical and Expected Population Change T rend by Decade Source: Bureau of the Census, Decennial Population Counts and 2012 Projections. 1Th e 2010 American Community Survey, used often herein for the additional annual detail it provides, uses a count of 309.3 million, a difference of 2 /10 of 1 percen

29、t from the 2010 census count. If each value were rounded to millions, they would be equal at 309 million. 28.4 19501960 19601970 19701980 19801990 19902000 20002010 20102020 20202030 20302040 20402050 24.4 22.6 22.4 32.3 27.8 23.7 24.6 21.5 19.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Millions Separating the cyclical

30、 from the structural trends in workforce size will be among the great challenges in understanding future workforce size and growth. 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.5 Brief 3. Population

31、and Worker Trends Figure 3-2. Annual Population Increase Source: Bureau of the Census annual estimates. The long-term trend in worker growth has followed a somewhat more predictable path, with a surge of workers entering the workforce as boomers reached working age, coming to a peak in growth, and t

32、hen declining, exacerbated by sharp economic contractions in the past decade. Table 3-1 confirms this pattern, with the increase in the number of workers in the decade rising from 7 million in 1960 to 18.4 million by 1990 and then declining sharply to about 8.6 million in 2010. Table 3-1. Population

33、 and Worker Trends Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Workers (millions) 58.9 65.8 78.6 96.7 115.1 128.3 136.9 Worker increase in decade (millions) 6.9 12.8 18.1 18.4 13.2 8.6 Percent worker increase in decade 11.7% 19.5% 23% 19.2% 11.5% 6.7% Percent population increase in decade 18.5% 13.3% 11

34、.4% 9.7% 13.2% 9.7% Source: Bureau of the Census. Even with this slowing in the recent period, the economy added 78 million workers from 1950 to 2010. The workforce has more than doubled in the 50 years since 1960. In the period from 1960 to 1990, the surge in baby boomers reaching working age showe

35、d higher increases in percentage terms than the population increase. From 1990 onward, population growth, in percentage terms, has exceeded worker growth. 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 by the American Asso

36、ciation of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.6 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends The Concept of Worker In commuting statistics, the definition of a worker as established in Censu

37、s Bureau procedure typically means a person, who was employed and at work last week. Most of the statistical treatments of commuting provided by the Census Bureau are based on those employed and at work in the week previous to being surveyed, which enables a response to questions about travel times,

38、 time left home, and mode of transportation used in the journey-to-work. Seeking the “correct” count of people who are employed will yield varying estimates from the different authorities responsible for preparing such estimates, each depending on slightly different definitions and procedures for es

39、timation. Later briefs will explore those linkages. The estimates to which the American Community Survey (ACS) numbers can be usefully compared typically are estimates of workers, as defined by the Census Bureau. The table below shows the hierarchy of concepts that leads to the estimate of 138.3 mil

40、lion workers in 2011. Importantly, the estimate of workers is 98.5 percent of the value for those who are defined as employed. Table 3-2. Worker Concepts Population age 16 and over 246,194,111 Not in labor force 88,717,824 In labor force 157,476,287 Armed forces 1,016,115 Civilian labor force 156,46

41、0,172 Unemployed 16,060,624 Employed 140,399,548 Workers 138,269,979 Source: ACS 2011. Table 3-3. Gender Distribution of Population and Labor Force All Male Female Population age 16 and over 246,194,111 119,833,558 126,360,553 In labor force 157,476,287 83,065,221 74,411,066 Civilian labor force 156

42、,460,172 82,186,179 74,273,993 Employed 140,399,548 73,428,136 66,971,412 Workers 138,269,979 72,969,374 65,300,605 Source: ACS 2011. 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.7 Brief 3. Populatio

43、n and Worker Trends The explosive growth in travel demand, both to accommodate the workforce and as a result of the economic growth supported by this workforce boom, defined the transporta- tion demand challenges of the past half-century. The substantial decline in worker increases during the recent

44、 decade and anticipated in the near future suggest that worker-driven travel demand growth will not be as substantial as we have experienced in the recent past. Tracing the long-term trend of the potential workforcethose in the age group 1664 and then the actual workforce yields important observatio

45、ns for understanding commuting trends. Figure 3-3 documents that we have come through an extraordinary period in our history, with an explosion in workers for which the economy was able to generate jobs. The Commuting in America series, in one sense, has documented the baby boom surge into the labor

46、 force, its commuting implications, and now its decline. Figure 3-3. Worker Increase T rends by Decade Source: Bureau of the Census. Figure 3-4 documents this conclusively, showing when the growth rates of the work- ing age population exceeded those of the overall population. At the same time, the a

47、ctual civilian labor force grew even faster, as baby boomers joined the labor force and, at least as significantly, women joined the labor force in extraordinary numbers. By 1990, that surge had declinedfirst with the working age group reaching levels of increase no greater than the general populati

48、on, and then with the actual labor force group declining in growth to levels lower than popu- lation growth. It is clear, at least in this period, that the ex- ceptional surge of women into the labor force, which solely accounted for the different growth rates in the civilian labor force from that o

49、f the general population, has now reached 19501960 19601970 19701980 19801990 19902000 20002010 6.9 12.8 18.1 18.4 13.2 8.6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Millions The exceptional surge of women into the labor force was largely responsible for the labor force growth rate outpacing overall population growth in prior decades. 2013 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.8 Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuti