ASTM E2506-2006 Standard Guide for Developing a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for New and Existing Constructed Facilities《开发新的和现有工程设施成本风险缓解的标准指南》.pdf

1、Designation: E 2506 06Standard Guide forDeveloping a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for Newand Existing Constructed Facilities1This standard is issued under the fixed designation E 2506; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year oforiginal adoption or, in the case of r

2、evision, the year of last revision. A number in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval. Asuperscript epsilon (e) indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.INTRODUCTIONProtecting constructed facilities from damages from natural and man-made hazards in a cost-effec

3、tive manner is a challenging task. Several measures of economic performance are available forevaluating building-related investments. These measures include, but are not limited to, life-cycle cost,present value net savings, savings-to-investment ratio, and adjusted internal rate of return. This gui

4、deprovides a generic framework for assessing the risks associated with natural and man-made hazards,formulating combinations of risk mitigation strategies for constructed facilities exposed to thosehazards, and using measures of economic performance to identify the most cost-effective combinationof

5、strategies.1. Scope1.1 This guide describes a generic framework for develop-ing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan for new and existingconstructed facilitiesbuildings, industrial facilities, and othercritical infrastructure. This guide provides owners and manag-ers of constructed facilities, arch

6、itects, engineers, constructors,other providers of professional services for constructed facili-ties, and researchers an approach for formulating and evaluat-ing combinations of risk mitigation strategies.1.2 This guide insures that the combinations of mitigationstrategies are formulated so that the

7、y can be rigorouslyanalyzed with economic tools. Economic tools include evalu-ation methods, standards that support and guide the applicationof those methods, and software for implementing the evalua-tion methods.1.3 The generic framework described in this guide helpsdecision makers assess the likel

8、ihood that their facility and itscontents will be damaged from natural and man-made hazards;identify engineering, management, and financial strategies forabating the risk of damages; and use standardized economicevaluation methods to select the most cost-effective combina-tion of risk mitigation str

9、ategies to protect their facility.1.4 The purpose of the risk mitigation plan is to provide themost cost-effective reduction in personal injuries, financiallosses, and damages to new and existing constructed facilities.Thus, the risk mitigation plan incorporates perspectives frommultiple stakeholder

10、sowners and managers, occupants andusers, and other affected partiesin addressing natural andman-made hazards.2. Referenced Documents2.1 ASTM Standards:2E 631 Terminology of Building ConstructionsE 833 Terminology of Building EconomicsE 917 Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of Buildingsand Bui

11、lding SystemsE 964 Practice for Measuring Benefit-to-Cost and Savings-to-Investment Ratios for Buildings and Building SystemsE 1057 Practice for Measuring Internal Rate of Return andAdjusted Internal Rate of Return for Investments in Build-ings and Building SystemsE 1074 Practice for Measuring Net B

12、enefits and Net Sav-ings for Investments in Buildings and Building SystemsE 1185 Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for Evalu-ating Investments in Buildings and Building SystemsE 1369 Guide for Selecting Techniques for Treating Uncer-tainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildingsand Build

13、ing SystemsE 1557 Classification for Building Elements and RelatedSiteworkUNIFORMAT IIE 1765 Practice for Applying Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) to Multiattribute Decision Analysis of Investments1This guide is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee E06 on Performanceof Buildings and is the dir

14、ect responsibility of Subcommittee E06.81 on BuildingEconomics.Current edition approved Sept. 15, 2006. Published September 2006.2For referenced ASTM standards, visit the ASTM website, www.astm.org, orcontact ASTM Customer Service at serviceastm.org. For Annual Book of ASTMStandards volume informati

15、on, refer to the standards Document Summary page onthe ASTM website.1Copyright ASTM International, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959, United States.Related to Buildings and Building SystemsE 1946 Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of Buildings andBuilding SystemsE 21

16、03 Classification for Bridge Elements and RelatedApproach WorkE 2166 Practice for Organizing and Managing BuildingDataE 2204 Guide for Summarizing the Economic Impacts ofBuilding-Related Projects2.2 ASTM Adjuncts:Discount Factor Tables33. Terminology3.1 DefinitionsFor definitions of terms used in th

17、is guide,refer to Terminologies E 631 and E 833.4. Summary of Guide4.1 This guide presents a generic framework for developinga cost-effective risk mitigation plan for constructed facilitiesexposed to natural and man-made hazards. The generic frame-work consists of three interrelated components. The

18、threecomponents are: (1) perform risk assessment; (2) specifycombinations of risk mitigation strategies; and (3) performeconomic evaluation. The generic framework builds on anapproach presented in Chapman and Leng (3).44.2 This guide identifies related ASTM standards and ad-juncts and describes why

19、measuring uncertainty and risk iscritical in the development of cost-effective protective strate-gies for constructed facilities. In addition to ASTM standardsand adjuncts, this guide identifies technical documents andsoftware that support the generic framework. These documentsand software are summa

20、rized in Appendix X1.4.3 Data about the frequency and consequences of naturaland man-made hazards are helpful when assessing the risksthat a particular facility faces from these hazards. Historicalpatterns of natural disasters, in particular, indicate which areasare more prone to these specific haza

21、rds in the future. Manyanalysts refer to past incidences of man-made hazards, such ascrime, as predictors of future occurrences. Sources of hazardsdata are presented in Appendix X2.5. Significance and Use5.1 Standard practices for measuring the economic perfor-mance of investments in buildings and b

22、uilding systems havebeen published by ASTM. A computer program that produceseconomic measures consistent with these practices is avail-able.5The computer program is described in Appendix X3.Discount factor tables have been published by ASTM tofacilitate computing measures of economic performance for

23、most of the practices.35.2 Investments in long-lived projects, such as the erectionof new constructed facilities or additions and alterations toexisting constructed facilities, are characterized by uncertain-ties regarding project life, operation and maintenance costs,revenues, and other factors tha

24、t affect project economics. Sincefuture values of these variable factors are generally unknown,it is difficult to make reliable economic evaluations.5.3 The traditional approach to uncertainty in project invest-ment analysis is to apply economic methods of project evalu-ation to best-guess estimates

25、 of project input variables, as ifthey were certain estimates, and then to present results in asingle-value, deterministic fashion. When projects are evalu-ated without regard to uncertainty of inputs to the analysis,decision makers may have insufficient information to measureand evaluate the financ

26、ial risk of investing in a project havinga different outcome from what is expected.5.4 To make reliable economic evaluations, treatment ofuncertainty and risk is particularly important for projectsaffected by natural and man-made hazards that occur infre-quently, but have significant consequences.5.

27、5 Following this guide when performing an economicevaluation assures the user that relevant economic information,including information regarding uncertain input variables, isconsidered for projects affected by natural and man-madehazards.5.6 Use this guide in the project initiation and planningphase

28、s of the project delivery process. Consideration of alter-native combinations of risk mitigation strategies early in theproject delivery process allows both greater flexibility inaddressing specific hazards and lower costs associated withtheir implementation.5.7 Use this guide for economic evaluatio

29、ns based onPractices E 917 (life-cycle costs), E 964 (benefit-to-cost andsavings-to-investment ratios), E 1057 (internal rate of returnand adjusted internal rate of return), E 1074 (net benefits andnet savings), and E 1765 (analytical hierarchy process formultiattribute decision analysis).5.8 Use th

30、is guide in conjunction with Guide E 2204 tosummarize the results of economic evaluations involvingnatural and man-made hazards.6. Procedures6.1 The recommended steps in developing a cost-effectiverisk mitigation plan are as follows:6.1.1 Establish risk mitigation objectives and constraints.6.1.2 Co

31、nduct assessment and document findings.6.1.3 Review alternative risk mitigation strategies.6.1.4 Select candidate combinations of risk mitigation strat-egies.6.1.5 Develop cost estimates and sequence of cash flows foreach candidate combination.6.1.6 Select appropriate economic method(s) for evaluati

32、ngthe candidate combinations of risk mitigation strategies (seeGuide E 1185).6.1.7 Compute measures of economic performance for eachcandidate combination.6.1.8 Recompute measures of economic performance takinginto consideration uncertainty and risk (see Guide E 1369 andPractice E 1946).3Available fr

33、om ASTM International Headquarters. Order Adjunct No.ADJE091703.4The boldface numbers in parentheses refer to the list of references at the end ofthis standard.5The NIST Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection helps userscalculate measures of economic performance for buildings and build

34、ing systems thatare consistent with ASTM standards. The program is downloadable from .E25060626.1.9 Analyze results and recommend the most cost-effective combination of risk mitigation strategies.6.1.10 Prepare report with documentation supporting rec-ommended risk mitigation plan.7. Perform Risk As

35、sessment7.1 Establish Risk Mitigation Objectives and Constraints:7.1.1 Specify the decision-makers objectives. This is cru-cial in defining the problem and determining the suitability ofthe economic evaluation method(s).7.1.2 Identify the constructed facility or set of facilities to beevaluated. Ide

36、ntify the types of hazards to be evaluated.7.1.3 Specify the design or system objective that is to beaccomplished. Identify any constraints that limit the availableoptions to be considered.7.2 Conduct Assessment and Document Findings:7.2.1 Form an assessment team composed of individualsfamiliar with

37、 the type of facility or set of facilities to beevaluated, individuals familiar with assessment tools andtechniques, and individuals who have breadth and depth ofexperience and understand other disciplines and system inter-dependencies. Refer to the risk assessment guidance docu-ments and software t

38、ools summarized in Appendix X1 to gainassessment insights on specific hazards or classes of hazards.Supplement your data sources with those described in Appen-dix X2 to compile information on the likelihood and severity ofspecific hazards or classes of hazards.7.2.2 Use information from the document

39、s and softwaresummarized in Appendix X1 to produce an assessment plan.Provide the assessment team with the tools, such as laptopcomputers and electronic forms/data collection sheets, neededto implement the assessment plan.7.2.3 Make assignments and deploy the assessment team.Collect and compile info

40、rmation on specific hazard types, theirlikelihood, and consequences.7.2.4 Use an agreed upon format, such as ClassificationsE 1557 or E 2103 or Practice E 2166, to create a compiled setof information collected from the assessment team that docu-ments the findings of the risk assessment. Transmit the

41、 com-piled set of information to a central repository to insure thataccess to sensitive information can be limited to those with alegitimate need to know.8. Specify Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies forEvaluation8.1 Review Alternative Risk Mitigation StrategiesThissection describes three ri

42、sk mitigation strategiesengineering,management, and financial. Each strategy is composed ofmultiple approaches for addressing hazards identified in therisk assessment. These approaches focus on hazard mitigationfor a specific system or collection of systems and components,as well as facility and sit

43、e-related elements. Strategies may beused either singly or in combination. Past research indicatesthat combinations of risk mitigation strategies offer flexibilityin dealing with both a single hazard and multiple hazards.8.1.1 Engineering:8.1.1.1 Engineering strategies are technical options in theco

44、nstruction or renovation of constructed facilities, their sys-tems, or their subsystems designed to reduce the likelihood orconsequences of disasters. Engineering strategies provide pro-tection against both natural and man-made hazards. Engineer-ing strategies also help defend against man-made hazar

45、ds,where their ability to detect or deter may reduce the likelihoodor consequences of such hazards.8.1.1.2 Protective engineering strategies are intended toreduce harm to occupants, damage to the structure, anddisruption of business if a disaster occurs. Protective engineer-ing strategies may improv

46、e the structural integrity of a build-ing, facilitate evacuation of occupants, or circumvent compro-mised systems.8.1.1.3 There is some overlap among engineering strategiesthat deter, detect, and protect against terrorist attacks and othercriminal acts. Detection and protective engineering strategie

47、sthat are observable to potential terrorists may deter them fromattacking. Closed-circuit television (CCTV), for example, isdesigned to detect unauthorized activities, but its visibility maydeter these activities.8.1.1.4 Risk mitigation strategies may also be hazard-specific. Reinforced building she

48、ll, shatter-resistant glass, anduse of barriers and bollards to achieve increased setbackdistances for existing buildings are examples of engineeringstrategies that protect against blast.8.1.2 Management:8.1.2.1 Management strategies can be procedural or techni-cal. Some management strategies relate

49、 to security, training,and communications. Others relate to decisions on where tolocate the building and who should have access to its systemsand subsystems. Some management strategies complementengineering strategies, while others substitute for them.8.1.2.2 Security practices are the use of security personneland procedures to prevent terrorist or criminal breaches fromhappening by detection or deterrence. They may be used toperform identification checks at building entrances, conductbackground checks on individuals with access to sensitiveareas and information, patrol faciliti