GPA PSNGL&LRG-2016 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases.pdf

1、 2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases API Statistics Department January 20, 2016 2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases API Statistics Department January 20, 2016 COPYRIGHT NOTICE All information offered in this report is the sole and exclusive prope

2、rty of the American Petroleum Institute. You may not reproduce, upload, post, transmit, download, or distribute, resell or otherwise transfer outside of your company without express consent of the American Petroleum Institute. 2016 American Petroleum Institute. All rights reserved. 2014 Sales of Nat

3、ural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases 2016 The American Petroleum Institute. All rights reserved. iii Protection of API Data WARNING LIMITATION OF LIABILITY: This data is based on information that has been voluntarily reported to the American Petroleum Institute by petroleum companies operat

4、ing in the U.S. The American Petroleum Institute does not guarantee the accuracy of the data and disclaims any express or implied liability in connection with its use. COPYRIGHT: The American Petroleum Institute used considerable expertise and judgment in compiling the statistics that were used in t

5、his report. The report and all of the statistical content contained in this report are the sole and exclusive property of the American Petroleum Institute and are specifically protected by the Copyright Act (17 U. S. C. 101). These statistics may not be copied, downloaded, uploaded, published, store

6、d, distributed, or transmitted in any manner without the express written authorization of the American Petroleum Institute. TRADE SECRET: The data and statistical information contained in this report are valuable trade secrets owned by the American Petroleum Institute. The use, copying, downloading,

7、 uploading, transmitting, sending, communicating, conveying, publishing, or disclosure of any of this information without the express written authorization of American Petroleum Institute is prohibited by D. C. Code Ann. 48-501 (1989), state statutes in most jurisdictions, and by Federal law pursuan

8、t to the Economic Espionage Act of 1996 (18 U. S. C. 1831). 2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases 2016 The American Petroleum Institute. All rights reserved. v Table of Contents Introduction vii Summary ix Tables A. Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases b

9、y PAD District and Product Type: 2014 and 2013 . 1 B. Sales of Propane in the United States, by End Use, PAD District, and State: 2014 and 2013 2 C. Sales of Odorized Propane in the United Sates, by End Use, PAD District, and State: 2014 and 2013 . 4 D. Five-Year History of State Sales and Proportio

10、n of Odorized Propane, in the United States . 6 E. Five-Year History of Total Sales of Odorized Propane Versus Total Sales of Propane, in the United States by PAD District and State . 7 F. Sales of Odorized Propane per Customer Account, in the United States, by End Use, PAD District, and State: 2014

11、 and 2013 . 8 Appendices A. Estimation Methodology 9 B. Data Collection Form: 2014 Sales of Propane Report 14 C. Instructions and Definitions: 2014 Sales of Propane Report . 16 2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases 2016 The American Petroleum Institute. All rights reserved.

12、vii Introduction The 2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases presents the results of the thirty-first annual survey jointly sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute (API), Gas Processors Association (GPA), National Propane Gas Association (NPGA), and Propane Education ter

13、tiary storage is defined to be all inventory held in customer tanks. All propane held in retailer storage tanks or customer storage tanks will ultimately be consumed. Furthermore, all volumes of propane in retailer and customer storage tanks (production, primary inventory, imports) are captured by E

14、IAs data collection system and will not be returned (in any significant volumes) into the primary supply distribution system. However, a few petrochemical companies have private storage facilities. These facilities are generally underground salt cavern storage and are connected via pipeline to prima

15、ry storage facilities, such as those in Mont Belvieu. Propane stored in private salt caverns may be returned to primary storage. When inventory from private salt cavern storage is returned to the primary distribution system and immediately sold into the market, the EIA data collection system will no

16、t capture these volumes in its annual summary of propane supply. In 2014, PERC receipts, raw survey data and other analyses indicated substantial volumes of uncounted supply were delivered into the primary distribution system and were immediately redelivered into the market. The results of the 2014

17、propane sales survey include an adjustment to U.S. propane supply statistics published by EIA in the Petroleum Supply Annual for 2014. 2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases 2016 The American Petroleum Institute. All rights reserved. ix Summary In 2014, sales of natural gas l

18、iquids and liquefied refinery gas totaled 49.4 billion gallons. This represents an increase of 5.6% from 2013. Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases in the United States: 2014 and 2013 (Thousands of Gallons) V o l u m e %Pr o d u c t T y p e 2014 2013 Ch a n g e Ch a n g eB u t a

19、 n e18 , 2 5 4 , 7 2 2 7 , 7 4 1 , 7 1 3 5 1 3 , 0 0 9 6 . 6 %E t h a n e11 6 , 3 6 6 , 8 2 7 1 6 , 1 1 9 , 8 9 9 2 4 6 , 9 2 8 1 . 5 %P e n t a n e s P l u s15 , 8 4 7 , 2 4 4 3 , 6 7 2 , 3 1 2 2 , 1 7 4 , 9 3 2 5 9 . 2 %P r o p a n e 1 8 , 9 3 1 , 2 7 2 1 9 , 2 3 1 , 3 6 1 - 3 0 0 , 0 8 9 - 1 . 6

20、%U n i t e d S t a t e s T o t a l 4 9 , 4 0 0 , 0 6 5 4 6 , 7 6 5 , 2 8 5 2 , 6 3 4 , 7 8 0 5 .6 %1P e tr o l e u m S u p p l y An n u a l 2 0 1 4 V o l u m e 1 , T a b l e s 3 , 5 , 7 , 9 , 1 12014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases 2016 The American Petroleum Institute. All

21、 rights reserved. x The tables below show the states with the largest odorized propane sales in the residential, commercial, and agricultural sectors. Totals may not equal the sum of their components due to independent rounding. R a n k St a t e1. M ic h ig a n 4 2 0 , 5 2 0 8 . 3 %2. W is c o n s i

22、n 2 9 2 , 9 7 9 5 . 8 %3. N e w Y o rk 2 5 2 , 9 5 0 5 . 0 %4. M in n e s o t a 2 5 0 , 9 0 9 4 . 9 %5. Illin o is 2 1 9 , 0 8 0 4 . 3 %T o t a l 1 , 4 3 6 , 4 3 8 2 8 . 3 %R a n k St a t e1. C a lif o rn ia 1 0 6 , 3 0 1 6 . 1 %2. N o rt h C a ro lin a 9 3 , 5 5 7 5 . 3 %3. Pe n n s y lv a n ia 8 9

23、 , 9 8 8 5 . 1 %4. F lo ri d a 8 8 , 2 3 3 5 . 0 %5. T e x a s 8 7 , 9 5 0 5 . 0 %T o t a l 4 6 6 , 0 2 9 2 6 . 6 %R a n k St a t e1. Io w a 1 8 9 , 2 7 7 1 7 . 0 %2. M in n e s o t a 1 4 2 , 8 7 3 1 2 . 8 %3. N o rt h C a ro lin a 9 9 , 2 3 9 8 . 9 %4. Illin o is 8 0 , 6 0 2 7 . 2 %5. C a lif o rn

24、ia 5 5 , 4 9 9 5 . 0 %T o t a l 5 6 7 , 4 9 0 5 0 . 8 %A g r i c u l t u r a l S e c t o rV o lu m e s (T h o u s a n d s o f G a llo n s )Pe rc e n t o f T o t a l A g ri c u lt u ra lR e s i d e n t i a l S e c t o rV o lu m e s (T h o u s a n d s o f G a llo n s )Pe rc e n t o f T o t a l R e s i

25、d e n t ia lC o m m e r c i a l S e c t o rV o lu m e s (T h o u s a n d s o f G a llo n s )Pe rc e n t o f T o t a l C o m m e rc ia l2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases 2016 The American Petroleum Institute. All rights reserved. 1 T a b l e A .P A D D i s t r i c t2014 2

26、013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013P A D D 1 5 5 7 , 5 0 8 3 8 6 , 0 2 2 0 0 2 3 7 , 6 1 7 2 0 1 , 0 9 6 3 , 2 9 8 , 5 4 8 2 , 9 5 8 , 5 9 3P A D D 2 1 , 8 9 0 , 6 7 2 1 , 7 0 4 , 3 6 0 9 6 7 , 5 4 8 7 3 3 , 5 9 7 5 1 8 , 0 0 9 5 0 0 , 0 1 0 4 , 1 6 7 , 2 9 5 4 , 2 6 3 , 3 5 0P A D D 3 5 , 3 7 3 , 9 0

27、 0 5 , 0 0 6 , 7 3 6 1 5 , 3 1 1 , 4 5 7 1 5 , 3 8 4 , 9 5 8 4 , 5 7 5 , 8 1 6 2 , 5 3 2 , 2 2 2 9 , 9 4 7 , 2 8 3 1 0 , 5 1 6 , 9 2 6P A D D 4 1 4 0 , 4 4 8 1 8 3 , 2 8 4 8 6 , 0 5 8 0 1 3 3 , 8 9 6 4 3 , 8 0 6 4 6 3 , 4 6 9 4 6 2 , 4 1 6P A D D 5 2 9 2 , 1 9 4 4 6 1 , 3 1 1 1 , 7 6 4 1 , 3 4 4 3 8

28、 1 , 9 0 6 3 9 5 , 1 7 8 1 , 0 5 4 , 6 7 7 1 , 0 3 0 , 0 7 5U . S . T O T A L 8 , 2 5 4 , 7 2 2 7 , 7 4 1 , 7 1 3 1 6 , 3 6 6 , 8 2 7 1 6 , 1 1 9 , 8 9 9 5 , 8 4 7 , 2 4 4 3 , 6 7 2 , 3 1 2 1 8 , 9 3 1 , 2 7 2 1 9 , 2 3 1 , 3 6 11P e t r o l e u m S u p p l y A n n u a l 2 0 1 4 V o l u m e 1 , T a

29、b l e s 3 , 5 , 7 , 9 , 1 1S a l e s o f N a t u r a l G a s L i q u i d s a n d L i q u e f i e d R e f i n e r y G a s e s b y P A D D i s t r i c t a n d P r o d u c t T y p e : 2 0 1 4 a n d 2 0 1 3( T h o u s a n d s f o G a l l o n s )B u t a n e1E t h a n e1P e n t a n e s P lu s1P r o p a n

30、e2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases 2016 The American Petroleum Institute. All rights reserved. 2 T a b l e B. Sa l e s o f Pro p a n e i n t h e U n i t e d St a t e s , b y En d U s e , PA D D i s t ri ct , a n d St a t e : 2 0 1 4 a n d 2 0 1 3(T h o u s a n d s o f G

31、a l l o n s )D i s t ri ct API refers to them as multi-state retailers 2. All other propane retail marketers; API refers to them as single-state retailers but understands that they may operate in more than one state. The response rate for multi-state retailers is considered to be 100%, therefore no

32、adjustment or estimation is needed. The estimation methodology therefore centers on single-state retailers. API estimates the Propane sales for the single-state retailers then appends the volumes to the reported retail propane sales gallons from large retailers to arrive at the estimated total propa

33、ne sales for each state. Therefore, all further discussion will center on the estimation methodology used to calculate the single-state data and will ignore the multi-state data. II. Estimation Methodology Step 1 Collecting Publicly Available Data Retail sales of propane data for total U.S., by PADD

34、, and, whenever possible, by end-use are collected from publicly available sources. Much of the data on the PADD level (and even some state detail) are available publicly from Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Petral Consulting Company. Depending on the time of the year, API can obtain the

35、 following data: 1. Total Propane Sales by PADD 2. Propane sales to Chemical plants by State These data are therefore with one minor adjustment - not estimated by API but used to calculate the sales by end use for each state. Historically, propane import statistics published by EIA and the Foreign T

36、rade Division/Census Bureau were in close agreement. Furthermore, propane import statistics published by the National Energy Board of Canada were also in close agreement with Foreign Trade Division/Census Bureau statistics. In 1993, however, EIA statistics for propane imports were 39.1 M Bpd less th

37、an Foreign Trade Division statistics. Since 1993, EIAs published data for propane imports have been chronically less propane imports as published by the Foreign Trade Division/Census Bureau. The understatement of imports is typically in the range of 25-50 M Bpd. Based on a detailed review of PADD le

38、vel propane import statistics, EIA statistics consistently understate Canadian propane imports into PADD 1 and PADD 2. The understatement of propane imports causes EIA statistics to understate total propane supply especially in PADD 1 and PADD 2. EIA propane supply statistics are critical to the pre

39、paration of the annual report of propane sales by end-use category. In particular, EIAs undercount of propane imports would cause propane sales into the residential/commercial markets to be understated if total propane supply statistics were not adjusted to reflect this chronic undercount problem. H

40、ence, EIAs published propane supply statistics are adjusted to reflect the understatement of Canadian propane imports. The adjustment to EIA propane supply statistics improves the quality of the propane end-use sales presented in the annual Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases.

41、In 2004, concern about EIAs accurate measuring of PADD to PADD transfers of propane were heightened when reported data exceeded the EIA PADD total for the first time. It was therefore determined that better overall estimates could be achieved if regional PADD controls were lifted and the total U.S.

42、number was used. In essence to keep the nomenclature of this methodology unchanged all the states were considered to belong in one PADD and the estimated states totals were rolled up directly to the U.S. totals, not the PADD totals.APPENDIX A 2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery

43、Gases 2016 American Petroleum Institute. All rights reserved. 10 Step 2 Adjusting the Reported Numbers to Reflect Response Rate Response will vary state. While API may receive responses from 10 of 15 retailers from Alabama, there may only be 2 of 20 responses from Virginia. In general, response rate

44、s for this survey are between 40 and 95 percent within a state these rates are sufficient to give API a high confidence in its estimates. Assuming that response within a state is independent of volume (a detailed discussion of this assumption can be found in section III. Methodology assumptions and

45、caveats), we can adjust the total reported numbers within each state as follows: Adjusted total reported propane sales by state = Tj =jjncc nNP 1Where, P = Total reported retail propane sales volumes per company n = Number of respondents in this state N = Number of surveys sent to this state c = A r

46、esponding company j = A state Step 3 Estimating Total Retail Propane Sales by State At this point, we have two estimates for each PADD: 1. The publicly available PADD total (from EIA) 2. The estimated PADD total reached by adding the estimated state totals calculated in step 2 above. The difference

47、between the two totals is simply the normal variance one observes, as an estimate is calculated using two different estimation methodologies. API has decided that the publicly available numbers, unless the difference between the two numbers is substantial1, are the ones to use in this publication. W

48、e must therefore adjust the estimated state totals calculated in step 2 above to add-up to the publicly available total for each PADD. Again, we use proportional allocation to reach our estimates as follows: Estimated total propane sales by state = Ej = knjjkjk DTT 1Where, k = PADD number (k = 1 to

49、5) Tj = Adjusted total reported Propane sales by state (see step 2 above) D = Total Estimated Propane sales in that PADD j = A State n = Total number of states in that PADD 1 The definition of the word “substantial”, which is also mentioned in a later section of this methodology, is left to the statistician working on the problem to define (based on the relative data in question). Another way to explain it is by using the phrase “statistically significant”. APPENDIX A 2014 Sales of Natural Gas Liquids and Liquefied Refinery