ICAO CIRCULAR 304-2004 Outlook for Air Transport to the year 2015《2015年航空运输展望》.pdf

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16、orld Wide Web: http:/ 3/04 Catalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids Issued annually, the Catalogue lists all publications and audio-visual training aids currently available. Monthly supplements announce new publications and audio-visual training aids, amendments, supplements, re

17、prints, etc. Available free from the Document Sales Unit, ICAO. Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-FOREWORD Introduction 1. This circular contains information on

18、 air transport trends and challenges and long-term airline passenger and freight traffc forecasts, in total and by region of registration, for the period through to the year 2015. in addition, it includes passenger traffic forecasts for international route groups and global forecasts of aircraft mov

19、ements, again through to the year 2015. The present circular is the fifth in a series to be issued biennially ortriennially (the previous edition “Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2010” was published in 2001 as Circular 281). Sources of information 2. In addition to the ICAO Digests of Statisti

20、cs, use has been made of many of the Organizations economic studies and of the Annual Reports of the Council to the Assembly for the years 1992 to 2002. Sources of information other than ICAO, referred to in the circular, include the appropriate and most recently available statistical publications o

21、f the United Nations, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the European Civil Aviation Conference CAC), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Air Transport Association (iATA), the Association of European Airlines (AEA), the U

22、nited States Department of Transportation (DOT) and Department of Energy (DOE), the World Tourism Organization (WTO-OMT), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, BACK Aviation Associates, the WEFA Group (formerly known as Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates) and aerospace manu

23、facturers. 3. “dollars” mean U.S. dollars; references to “billion” mean one thousand million. Unless indicated otherwise, all references in this circular to “cents” mean U.S. cents, and all references to Status 4. This circular has been approved by the Secretary General and is published under his au

24、thoriy. Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Table of Contents Chapter1 . Summary 1 Chapter 2 . Air Transport Trends and Challenges . Economic development and airl

25、ine traffic patterns Trends in scheduled passenger. freight and mail traffic . international and domestic traffic . Regional distribution of scheduled international traffic . Passenger traffic on major intercontinental route groups Trends in non-scheduled passenger traffic Aircraft movements . Fleet

26、 composition and productivity Relationship between productivity. prices and financial performance . Safety and quality of service Airport and airspace congestion Environmental protection . Financial resources . Economicregulation Product distribution . Alliances and airline cooperation . Airline bus

27、iness models Privatization, national consolidation and transnational ownership . Industrystructure 5 5 5 7 7 7 8 9 11 13 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 21 Chapter 3 . World Economic Environment . 22 Historicaltrends . 22 Outlook 22 Chapter 4 . Airline Financial Trends 24 24 Globaltrends . 24 Yields and

28、unit costs 28 Operating revenues and expenses by category and region 28 Outlook 30 . Operating revenues. expenses and results . Chapter 5 . Forecasts of Airline Traffic to the Year 2015 Forecasting methodology . Main assumptions and econometric models . Global passenger forecasts Passenger forecasts

29、 for intercontinental route groups . Regional passenger forecasts Global freight forecasts Regional freight forecasts Summary of air traffic forecasts by other organizations . 33 33 33 34 36 36 37 38 41 (iii) Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAO

30、Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-(iv) Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2015 Page Chapter 6 . Forecasts of Aircraft Movements to the Year 2015 Factors affecting aircraft movements Measures of aircraft movements Forecasting methodology . 44 Foreca

31、sts of world scheduled aircraft movements . 42 42 44 45 APPENDICES Appendix 1 . Econometric Models of Demand for World Scheduled Air Traffic . 41 Appendix 2 . Model for Aircraft Movement Forecasts . 49 TABLES Table 1.1 . Table 1.2 . Table 1.3 . Table 2.1 . Table 2.2 . Table 2.3 . Table 4.1 . Table 4

32、.2 . Table 4.3 . Table 4-4 . Table 5.1 . Table 5.2 . Table 5.3 . Table 54 . Table 5.5 . Table 5.6 . Table 6- 1 . Table A2.1 . FIGURES Figure 2.1 . Figure 2.2 . Figure 2.3 . Figure 2-4 . Figure 2.5 . Figure 2.6 . Figure 2.7 . Figure 2.8 . Figure 2.9 . Figure 3.1 . Figure 4.1 . Figure 4.2 . ICAO air t

33、raffic forecasts . World (1 992-201 5) . ICAO air traffic forecasts . Regions of airline registration (1992-2015) . ICAO air traffic forecasts . Intercontinental route groups (1992.2015) Trends in total scheduled traffic . World (1 960-2002) Operating revenues and expenses . World (1970-2002) . , .

34、Distribution of operating revenues and expenses . World (1992 and 2002) . International non-scheduled passenger traffic . World (1992 and 2002) . Productivity of international scheduled airlines . World (1965.2002) . Total and unit operating revenues and expenses . World (1 992 and 2002) Distributio

35、n of operating revenues and expenses . Regions of airline registration (1992 and 2002) . ICAO scheduled passenger traffic forecasts . World (1992-20 15) . ICAO scheduled passenger traffic . Regions of airline registration (1992.2015) . ICAO scheduled passenger traffic . Intercontinental route groups

36、 (1 992-201 5) . , ICAO scheduled freight traffic forecasts . World (1992-201 5) . ICAO scheduled freight traffic . Regions of airline registration (1992-2015) . Global scheduled traffic forecasts by aerospace manufacturers . ICAO aircraft movements forecast . World (1982-2015) . Growth in aircraft

37、movements and contributing factors -World (1982-2015) . Economic and airline traffic trends . World (1960-2002) Trends in scheduled international and domestic traffic . World (1992 and 2002) . Intemational passenger and keight traffic . Shares by region (1992 and 2002) Passengers on scheduled servic

38、es . Intercontinental route groups (1992 and 2002) . Growth in passengers and aircraft movements . World (1960-2002) . Composition of commercial aircraft fleet . World (1960-2002) . Trends in airline productivity . World (1 960-2002) , . Input price trends . World (1960-2002) . Growth of real GDP an

39、d GDP per capita . World (1 992-2005) . Trends in airline industry performance . World (1960-2002) . Scheduled airline operating revenues and expenses -World (1992.2002) Financial performance indicators of scheduled airlines -World (1992-2002) . 2 3 4 6 10 12 25 26 31 32 35 37 38 39 40 41 46 50 6 7

40、8 9 10 11 13 14 14 23 26 27 Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Table of Contents (V) Page Figure 4-3. Passenger and freight yields of scheduled airlines - World

41、(1960-2002). Figure 5-1. Trends in scheduled passenger traffic - World (1992-2015). Figure 5-2. Trends in scheduled freight traffic -World (1992-2015) Figure 6-1. Average aircraft size and load factor - World (1960-2002). Figure 6-2. Average aircraft stage length - World (1960-2002) 29 29 30 35 39 4

42、3 45 Figure 4-4. Figure 4-5. Unit operating costs of scheduled airlines - World (1992-2002). Share of fuel and oil in operating expenses of scheduled airlines -World (1992-2002) . . . Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduc

43、tion or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Chapter 1 SUMMARY 1. During the period 1960-2002, the aggregate economic activities of the world measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent in real terms. For the period 1992- 2002, GDP and GD

44、P per capita grew at an average annual rate of 3.0 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively (see Chapter 3). 2. Growth in air transport has been much greater than economic growth but is closely linked with it. World airline scheduled passenger traffic (domestic and intemational) measured in terms of

45、passenger-kilometres performed (PKPs) increased at an average annual rate of 8.1 per cent for the 1960-2002 period. For the periods 1960-1972,1972-1982,1982-1992 and 1992-2002, passenger traffic grew at an average annual rate of 12.8,7.6, 5.4 and 4.3 per cent, respectively (see Table 2-1). While eco

46、nomic conditions continued to be the major dnver of air travel demand, security and safety concerns and so-called fear and hassle factors, triggered by the unprecedented events of 11 September 2001 , had adverse effects on air traffic in 2001 and 2002. These effects, further amplified by the war in

47、Iraq and the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), continued in 2003 and were taken into accouilt for the projection of future air traffic trends. 3. World airline scheduled freight traffic (domestic and international) measured in terms of tonne-kilometres performed (TKPs) increased

48、at an average annual rate of 8.5 per cent over the 1960-2002 period. For the periods 196 WEFA, ICAO Reporting FonnA-l. Figure 2-1. Economic and airline traffic trends - World (1960-2002) (GDP in real terms and total scheduled TKPs) Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Chapter 2. Air Transport Trends and Challenges 7 6. in 2002, the worlds airlines carried over 1.6 billion passengers and 30 million tonnes of freight and mail on scheduled serv