ICAO CIRCULAR 308-2006 Airline Traffic Forecasts and Financial Trends - 2005 to 2007《航线交通流量预测和财务趋势-2005到2007》.pdf

1、Cir 308 AT11 30 Airline Traffic Forecasts and Financial Trends - 2005 to 2007 Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority January 2006 I n t e rn a t i o n a I C iv i I Av at i on Organ iza t i o n Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under lice

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19、Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-FOREWORD INTRODUCTION 1. This circular, Airline Traffic Forecasts and Financial Trends - 2005 to 2007, analyses trends in airl

20、ine traffic and financial results over the 1994-2004 period along with factors underlying air traffic demand and presents medium-term global and regional forecasts of scheduled passenger traffic and basic global airline financial trends through to 2007. SOURCES 2. ICAO Digests of Statistics (no long

21、er published) and a dedicated ICAO aviation statistics Web site () are the main source of airline traffic and financial statistics. In addition to these, sources of information include relevant and most recently available statistical publications of the United Nations (UN), BACK Aviation Solutions f

22、leet and airline schedule databases, the Air Transport Association (ATA), the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), the Association of European Airlines (AEA), Avmark Inc., the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Organisation for Economic

23、 Co-operation and Development (OECD), the United States Department of Transportation (DOT), the World Bank (WB), and the WEFA Group (formerly known as Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates). 3. The statistical data for 2004 appearing in this circular are to be considered as preliminary: experi

24、ence shows that the margin of error for world totals is probably less than 2 per cent, except in the case of operational results where it may be considerably higher. 4. Unless otherwise noted: all statistical data are applicable to ICAO Contracting States (188 at the end of 2004); regional breakdown

25、s are by ICAO statistical region; traffic statistics are for scheduled services of commercial air carriers; total airline financial statistics relate commercial air carriers with scheduled as well as non-scheduled operations; the expression “tonne-kilometre” means metric tonne-kilometre; the word “b

26、illion” means one thousand million; and all references to monetary units made in this circular mean “United States (U.S.) cents” for “cents” and “U.S. dollars” for “$. Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networki

27、ng permitted without license from IHS-,-,-ii ICA0 Circular 308-A TA 30 STATUS 5. authority. This circular has been approved by the Secretary General and is published under his Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or

28、networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-ABLE a= CONTENTS Page Chapter 1 . Trends in airline traffic and financial results . 1-1 Airline traffic: world 1-1 Airline traffic: regions of airline registration . 1-1 Airline financial results: world 1-4 Airline financial results: regions of airli

29、ne registration . 1-6 Chapter 2 . Trends in factors underlying air traffic demand . 2-1 Global and regional economic and demographic trends . 2-1 Airline productivity. input prices. financial performance and airline passenger yields . 2-7 Chapter 3 . Forecast methodology and main assumptions . 3-1 C

30、hapter 4 . Airline traffic and financial forecasts . 4-1 Airline traffic forecasts . 4-1 Global 4-1 4-1 4-3 Appendix . Methodology for traffic forecasts . A-I Regions of airline registration Global airline financial forecast TABLES Table 1-1 Table 1-2 Table 1-3 Table 3-1 Table 4-1 Total internationa

31、l and domestic revenue traffic . World (1 994-2004) (scheduled services of airlines of ICAO Contracting States) . International revenue traffic -World (1 994-2004) (scheduled services of airlines of ICAO Contracting States) . Operating and net results - World (1994-2004) (scheduled airlines of ICAO

32、Contracting States) . Economic growth (GDP) by region (real average annual growth rates, per cent) . ICAO scheduled passenger traffic forecasts - World and regions 1-2 1-2 1-5 3-2 (2005-2007) (passenger-kilometres performed) . 4-2 (i) Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by I

33、HS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-tw ICA0 Circular 308-AT130 Page FIGURES Figure 1-1 Figure 1-2 Figure 1-3 Figure 1-4 Figure 1-5 Figure 1-6 Figure 1-7 Figure 2-1 Figure 2-2 Figure 2-3 Figure 2-4 Figure 2-5 Figure 2-6 Figure 2

34、-7 Figure 2-8 Figure 2-9 Figure 2-1 O Figure 2-1 1 Figure 2-1 2 Figure 4-1 Figure 4-2 Figure 4-3 Figure 4-4 Figure 4-5 Figure 4-6 Figure 4-7 Regional distribution of total scheduled passenger traffic . World (1 994 and 2004), (percentage of passenger-kilometres performed) . Scheduled airline operati

35、ng revenues and expenses . Africa (1994-2004) Scheduled airline operating revenues and expenses . AsidPacific (1994-2004) Scheduled airline operating revenues and expenses . Europe (1994-2004) . Scheduled airline operating revenues and expenses . Middle East (1994-2004) Scheduled airline operating r

36、evenues and expenses . North America Scheduled airline operating revenues and expenses - Latin America and the Caribbean (1 994-2004) Annual change in real GDP and GDP per capita -World (1994-2004) Annual change in real GDP and GDP per capita - Africa (1994-2004) Annual change in real GDP and GDP pe

37、r capita - AsidPacific (1994-2004) . Annual change in real GDP and GDP per capita - Europe (1 994-2004) Annual change in real GDP and GDP per capita - Middle East (1994-2004) . Annual change in real GDP and GDP per capita - North America (1994-2004) Annual change in real GDP and GDP per capita - Lat

38、in America and the Caribbean (1 994-2004) Trends in performance of scheduled airline industry (1 991-2003) Financial return and aircraft supply - World (1 994-2004) . Financial return and traffic growth of scheduled airline industry - World (1 994-2004) . World average scheduled passenger yields (1

39、994-2004) . Scheduled passenger traffic growth (PKPs) - World (1 994-2007) Scheduled passenger traffic growth (PKPs) - Africa and World (1994-2007) . Scheduled passenger traffic growth (PKPs) - AsidPacific and World (1 994-2007) Scheduled passenger traffic growth (PKPs) - Europe and World (1 994-200

40、7) . Scheduled passenger traffic growth (PKPs) - Middle East and World (1994-2007) Scheduled passenger traffic growth (PKPs) - North America and World (1 994-2007) . Scheduled passenger traffic growth (PKPs) - Latin America and the Caribbean and World (1994-2007) . (1994-2004) . GDP and scheduled tr

41、affic growth - World (1 994-2004) . 1-3 1-6 1-7 1-8 1-9 1-10 1-11 2-2 2-2 2-4 2-4 2-5 2-5 2-6 2-6 2-8 2-9 2-9 2-10 4-2 4-4 4-4 4-5 4-5 4-6 4-6 Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without lice

42、nse from IHS-,-,-Chapter 1 TRENDS IN AIRLINE TRAFFIC AND FINANCIAL RESULTS AIRLINE TRAFFIC: WORLD 1.1 Total scheduled airline traffic, measured in terms of total tonne-kilometres performed (TKPs), grew at an average annual rate of 5.3 per cent between 1994 and 2004. Passenger-kilometres performed (P

43、KPs) grew at an average rate of 5.1 per cent per annum and freight tonne-kilometres at 6.1 per cent per annum. Global airline traffic data for each year of the period 1994-2004 are given in Tables 1-1 (total traffic) and 1-2 (international traffic). 1.2 After a decline in 1991, scheduled passenger t

44、raffic (measured in terms of PKPs) recovered in 1992 due to a significant decline in yields. It continued to grow until 1997 as economic growth provided a solid foundation for traffic increase. In 1998 the world gross domestic product (GDP) grew at only 1.9 per cent, providing for simultaneous growt

45、h of scheduled passenger traffic of only 2.1 per cent. In 1999 and 2000, traffic increased by 6.5 and 8.6 per cent respectively, supported by the strong performance of the world economy. The economic downturn and related decline in business and consumer confidence had a negative impact on traffic in

46、 late 2000 and in 2001, when the events of 11 September exacerbated an already difficult situation. As a result, traffic declined in 2001 by 2.9 per cent, the first decline since 1991 and only the second since 1945. In 2002, demand for air travel remained depressed and traffic grew at only 0.5 per c

47、ent. Following declines in the first part of the year due to the outbreak of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the war in Iraq, traffic rebounded in the second part of 2003 and increased by 1.8 per cent for the whole year. In 2004, traffic recovery continued, mainly of the airlines in

48、 the AsidPacific region, the worst affected by the SARS outbreak. It was supported by improved performance of some regional economies (Africa, AsidPacific, Europe, North America, Latin AmericdCaribbean) and sustained performance of the Middle East economy, and to some extent by marginal decline of cost of travel expressed in real terms. The growth of traffic in 2004 is estimated at about 14 per cent. However, the average annual growth during the period 2000-2004 is 3.2 per cent. 1.3 The regional distribution of scheduled pass