1、CCITT RECMNaE-508 72 m 4862593 0578bLO 458 INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION CCITT THE INTERNATIONAL TELEGRAPH AND TELEPHONE CONSULTATIVE COMMITTEE TELEPHONE NETWORK AND ISDN QUALITY OF SERVICE, NETWORK MANAGEMENT AND TRAFFIC ENGINEERING E.508 (1 0/92) FORECASTING NEW TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
2、Recommendation E.508 COPYRIGHT International Telecommunications Union/ITU TelecommunicationsLicensed by Information Handling ServicesFOREWORD The CCITT (the International Telegraph and Telephone Consultative Committee) is a permanent organ of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). CCIlT is
3、 responsible for studying technical, operating and tariff questions and issuing Recommendations on them with a view to standardizing telecommunications on a worldwide basis. The Plenary Assembly of CCITT which meets every four years, establishes the topics for study and approves Recommendations prep
4、ared by its Study Groups. The approval of Recommendations by the members of CCITT between Plenary Assemblies is covered by the procedure laid down in CCITT Resolution No. 2 (Melbourne, 1988). Recommendation ES08 was revised by Study Group II and was approved under the Resolution No. 2 procedure on t
5、he 30th of October 1992. CCIT NOTE In this Recommendation, the expression “Adminisration” is used for conciseness to indicate both a telecommunication administration and a recognized private operating agency. O IW 1993 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or utilized in
6、 any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and microfilm, without permission in writing from the IT. COPYRIGHT International Telecommunications Union/ITU TelecommunicationsLicensed by Information Handling ServicesCCITT RECMN*E.SOB 92 m 48b259L 0578bl12 220 m Recommen
7、dation ES08 FORECASTING NEW TELECOMMUNKATION SERVICES (revised 1992) 1 Introduction The operation and administration of a telecommunications network should include the consideration of subscriber demands for new services which may have different characteristics than the traditional traffic (i.e. pea
8、k busy hours, bandwidth requirements, and average call durations may be different). By addressing these new demands, Administrations can be more responsive to customer requirements for innovative telecommunications services. Based on the type of service and estimated demand for a service, network fa
9、cilities and capacity may have to be augmented. An augmentation of the network could require large capital investments and additional functions and responsibilities. Forecasting of new services can be done in the context of an overall approach illustrated in Figure UE.508. Section 2 of this Recommen
10、dation classifies and discusses the definition of new services for the purpose of forecasting. The parameters (base data) related to the new services are outlined in Section 3. Section 4 introduces methods for use in forecasting new services. Section 5 describes methods for combining forecast result
11、s and Section 6 methods to evaluate forecast results. Figure 1E.508 includes an iteration loop with measurement of actual traffic. This type of loop is implicit in ali forecasting processes, but it is particularly important where the uncertainties of original forecasts can be reduced by frequent upd
12、ates. r- I I I I Service and parameter definition Independent forecasts Combining of forecasts L- I I I I I Evaluation I I+ Measurements 1 TO9-92 FIGURE 1E.508 New services forecasting approach Recommendation ES08 (10D2) 1 COPYRIGHT International Telecommunications Union/ITU TelecommunicationsLicens
13、ed by Information Handling Services CCITT RECNN*E.508 92 = 486259L 0578613 167 2 New service classification 2.1 General A distinction between those services which are enhancements of existing services carried on the existing telephone network and those services which are novel is useful. Many of the
14、 services in this latter category will be carried on the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN). It is not the purpose of the section to provide an exhaustive list of services but rather to establish a framework for their classification. This framework is required because different base data and
15、 forecasting strategies may be necessary in each case. 2.2 Enhanced services offered over the existing network These are services which are offered over the existing network, and which offer an enhancement of the original use for which the network was intended. Services such as the international fre
16、ephone service, credit card calling and Closed User Groups are examples of enhancements of voice services, while facsimile Telefax and Videotex are examples of non-voice services. These services may be carried out over the existing network and, therefore, data will concern usage or offered load spec
17、ific to the enhancement. Arrangements can be established for the measurement of this traffic, such as the use of special network access codes for non-voice applications or by sampling outgoing circuits for the proportion of non-voice to voice traffic. Examples of enhanced services are presented in T
18、able 1E.508. TABLE lE.508 Examples of enhanced services Enhancement of existing services Teletex Facsimile Videotex Message handling systems International freephone Automatic credit cards calling Closed User Groups 2.3 Novel services Novel services are defined as totally new service offerings many o
19、f which may be carried over the ISDN. In the case of ISDN, Recommendation 1.210 divides telecommunications services into two broad categories: bearer services and teleservices. Recommendation 1.2 10 further defines supplementary services which modify or supplement a basic telecommunications service.
20、 The definition of bearer services supported by the ISDN is contained in Recommendations 1.210 and 1.21 1, while that for teleservices is found in Recommendations 1.210 and 1.212. Bearer services may include circuit switched services from 64 kbids to 2 Mbiih and packet services. Circuit switched ser
21、vices above 2 Mbit/s are for further study. Telesemices may include Group 4 facsimile, mixed mode text and facsimile, 64 kbit/s teletex and videotex, videophone, videoconferencing, electronic funds transfer and point of sale transaction services. These lists are not exhaustive but indicate the natur
22、e and scope of bearer services and teleservices. Examples of novel services are presented in Table 2E.508. 2 Recommendation ES08 (10/92) COPYRIGHT International Telecommunications Union/ITU TelecommunicationsLicensed by Information Handling ServicesCCITT RECMN*E.SOB 92 m 4862593 057BbL4 OT3 m TABLE
23、2E.508 Examples of novel services “Novel” services I Teleservices I Bearer services I Packet switched services Circuit switched services - 64 kbiffs - 2MbiUs - Multipoints - 64 kbiffs Group 4 facsimile Mixed mode Videophone Videoconferencing Electronic funds transfer Point of sale transactions Telet
24、ex (64 kbiffs) Video tex (64 kbitk) For some novel services the demand will arise from new communication needs. These needs and their technical solutions are still rather uncertain and also influence the network architecture. Therefore it is essential to know the user applications, which represent t
25、he content of the service. This is partly a result of the technological development and partly a result of the new regulatory regime. The traditional chain of production: supplier industry- operator-user, develops into a far more complicated structure. The chain of production becomes in a certain se
26、nse longer, roughly like: supplier industry-bearer service - Value Added Network Services (VANS) - information services-user. The chain is complicated by a number of “spin-offs” supplying hardware, software and system services. Along with the more complicated structure, there is a shift in the domin
27、ating element in the chain: the information service supplier tends to be the dominating element structuring the whole chain. This is exactly what necessitates the knowledge of the user applications. As an illustrative example, some of the problems connected with forecasting of the demand for ISDN ca
28、n be listed. - The price elasticity for Plain Old Telephone Service (POTS) appears to be relatively low in the industrialized countries. This will probably not be the case for new services lie ISDN. First of all because they will be more expensive than POTS (at least in the short run) but also becau
29、se a number of alternatives exist (e.g. data networks, leased lines or means of communications based on systems other than telecommunications). - Although the tariffs for ISDN will be of major importance in the users investment decision, the costs related to the introduction of ISDN include many oth
30、er factors. New equipment has to be acquired and installed, personnel has to be trained and organizational changes may be necessary. The initial benefits, primarily savings on the payment for other telecommunication services, must outweigh the total of these costs or new applications must be very co
31、nvincing. - The fast technological development in the field of telecommunications reduces the lifetime of the users investments in ISDN. The fast decreasing prices on telecommunication equipment also reduce the economic lifetime of the hardware investments. - The benefit of a certain service increas
32、es with the number of users connected to it 2. This market externality makes the regulatory framework of particular importance. In a deregulated environment no guarantee is given that ISDN will ever be the dominating standard for data transmission services. Competing service solutions running on vir
33、tual private networks will constrain this development and reduce the demand. - The demand for ISDN depends not only on the price of alternatives but also on their quality. Thus, the interest for ISDN has been much more pronounced in countries without well functioning data networks. Recommendation ES
34、OS (10B2) 3 COPYRIGHT International Telecommunications Union/ITU TelecommunicationsLicensed by Information Handling ServicesCCITT RECMN*E.508 92 4862593 0578635 T3T 3 Forecasting parameters 3.1 Measurement of enhanced services Measurements for existing services are available in terms of numbers of c
35、alls, call duration, erlangs, etc. These procedures are covered in Recommendation E.506, Q 2, In order to measurehdentify enhanced service data from other traffic data on the same network it may be necessary to establish sampling or other procedures to aid in the estimation of this traffic, as descr
36、ibed in 0 4 and Q 5. 3.2 Novel services Novel services, as defined in 0 2, may be carried on the ISDN. In the case of the ISDN, circuit switched bearer services and their associated teleservices will be measured in 64 kbitls increments. Packet switched bearer services and associated teleservices wil
37、l be measured by a unit of throughput, for example, kilocharacters or hlopackets per second. Other characteristics will be needed when the uses of these services as discussed in Q 2 may require additional statistical characterization beyond that used for telephony and enhanced services. 4 Independen
38、t forecasting methods 4.1 General The absence of historical data is the fundamental difference between forecasting new services and forecasting existing services. The same forecast methodologies are dependent on the base data. For example, for a service already in existence in some countries, foreca
39、sting procedures for its introduction to a new country will involve historical data on other counuies, its application to the new country and comparison of characteristics between countries. Other methods based on expert opinions or socio-economic analysis apply for both cases. 4.2 Market research M
40、arket research is conducted to test consumer response and behaviour. This research employs the methods of questionnaires, market analysis, focus groups demonstration, trials and interviews. Its purpose is to determine consumers intentions to purchase a service, attitudes towards new and existing ser
41、vices, price sensitivity and cross- services elasticities. Market research helps make decisions concerning which new services should be developed. A combination of the qualitative and quantitative phases of market research can be used in the initial stages of forecasting the demand for a new service
42、. The design of market research considers a sampling frame, customer/market stratification, the selection of a statistically random sample and the correction of results for non-response bias. The sample can be drawn from the entire market or from sub-segments of the market. In sampling different mar
43、ket segments, factors which characterize the segments must be dike with respect to consumer behaviour (small intragroup variance) and should differ as much as possible from other segments (large intergroup variance); each segment is homogeneous while different segments are heterogeneous. The market
44、research may be useful in forecasting existing services or the penetration of new services. The research may be used in forecasting novel services or any service which has no historical series of demand data. It is important that potential customers be given a complete description of the new service
45、, including the terms and conditions which would accompany its provisioning. It is also important to ask the surveyees whether they would purchase the new service under a variety of illustrative tariff structures and levels. This aspect of market research will aid in redimensioning the demand upon f
46、inal determination of the tariff structure and determining the customers initial price sensitivity. 4.2.1 Forecasting procedures 4.2.2 Sampling and questionnaire design The forecasting procedure for novel services based on market research is made up of five consecutive steps. The first of these cons
47、ists in defining the scope of the study. 4 Recommendation ES08 (10/92) COPYRIGHT International Telecommunications Union/ITU TelecommunicationsLicensed by Information Handling ServicesCCITT RECMN*E.508 72 W 4862571 0578616 976 The second step involves the definition and selection of a sample from the
48、 population, where the population includes all potential customers which can be identified by qualitative market research developed through interviews at focus groups. The research can use stratified samples which involves grouping the population into homogeneous segments (or strata) and then sampli
49、ng within each stratum. Stratification prevents the disproportionate representation of some parts of the population that can result by chance with simple random sampling. The sample can be structured to include specified numbers of respondents having characteristics that are known, or believed, to affect the subject of the research. Examples of customer characteristics would be socio-economic background and type of business. The third step is the questionnaire design. A trade-off exists between obtaining as much information as practical and limiting the questionnaire
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