1、SAE International technology profiles Automotive 2030 North America | i Automotive 2030 North America T-127 book.indb 1 8/24/11 9:22 AMii | Automotive 2030 North America Other SAE books of interest: Alternative Cars in the 21st Century By Robert Q. Riley (Product Code: R-227) World History of the Au
2、tomobile By Erik Eckermann (Product Code: R-272) Meeting the Technology Management Challenges in the Automotive Industry By Ashok B. Boghani and Andrew Brown (Product Code: R-258) For more information or to order a book, contact SAE International at 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA 15096-0001,
3、 USA; phone 877-606-7323 (U.S. and Canada only) or 724-776-4970 (outside U.S. and Canada); fax 724-776-0790; email CustomerServicesae.org; website http:/books.sae.org. T-127 book.indb 2 8/24/11 9:22 AM Automotive 2030 North America | iii Warrendale, Pennsylvania USA Automotive 2030 North America By
4、Bruce Morey T-127 book.indb 3 8/24/11 9:22 AM Copyright 2011 SAE International eISBN: 978-0-7680-7341-6iv | Automotive 2030 North America 400 Commonwealth Drive Warrendale, PA 15096-0001 USA E-mail: CustomerServicesae.org Phone: 877-606-7323 (inside USA and Canada)724-776-4970 (outside USA) Fax: 724
5、-776-0790 Copyright 2011 SAE International. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, distributed, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of SAE. For permission and licensing requests, contact SAE Permi
6、ssions, 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA 15096-0001 USA; email: copyrightsae.org; phone: 724-772-4028; fax: 724-772-9765. ISBN 978-0-7680-5727-0 SAE Order No. T-127 DOI 10.4271/T-127 Information contained in this work has been obtained by SAE International from sources believed to be reliable.
7、 However, neither SAE International nor its authors guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information published herein and neither SAE International nor its authors shall be responsible for any errors, omissions, or damages arising out of use of this information. This work is published with
8、the understanding that SAE International and its authors are supplying information, but are not attempting to render engineering or other professional services. If such services are required, the assistance of an appropriate professional should be sought. To purchase bulk quantities, please contact:
9、 SAE Customer Service E-mail: CustomerServicesae.org Phone: 877-606-7323 (inside USA and Canada)724-776-4970 (outside USA) Fax: 724-776-0790 Visit the SAE Bookstore at http:/store.sae.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Morey, Bruce. Automotive 2030, North America / by Bruce Morey
10、. p. cm. ISBN 978-0-7680-5727-0 1. Automobiles-T echnological innovations-North America. 2. Automobiles-United States-Design and construction-Forecasting. I. Title. TL22.M67 2011 629.20112-dc23 2011031017 T-127 book.indb 4 8/24/11 9:22 AM Automotive 2030 North America | v Executive Summary This book
11、 projects how cars might evolve by 2030. It does so by looking at key technical trends evident in the present. The mega-trends this books looks at in detail are better fuel economy, alternative sources of fuel, and automated driving. The first chapter summarizes key developments in vehicle technolog
12、ies. This base sets the stage for the future. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 look at trends and predict the fu- ture of technologies that have been with us since the beginning of the automotive ageinternal combustion engines, transmissions, vehicle bodies, and materials. The theme in these chapters is that as
13、 fuel prices and availability continue to worry us all, engineers will refine these technologies to deliver better fuel economy. New valve technologies; widespread use of boosted, downsized engines; and direct fuel injec- tion will deliver engines with better fuel economy, possibly as much as 30% gr
14、eater. Downsizing cars will result in greater fuel economy. Materials that are more light- weight will contribute some as well. However, there is a limit. These technologies still require liquid fuels, which at present mostly come from petroleum. To stretch fuel economy even more, gasoline-electric
15、hybrids represent a truly new stream of technical developments, covered in Chapter 5. This chapter clearly shows that not only do gasoline-electric hybrids recover “lost” energy from brak- ing, but they also enable engineers to more carefully match the most economical operating points of internal-co
16、mbustion engines to move the car. Mild hybrid technologies, such as electric-motor-assisted starts coupled with idle-stop tech- nologies, will likely become standard in all new cars, possibly as early as 2016. However important these technologies are, they stretch current fuel supplies they do not r
17、eplace them. That is the subject of Chapters 6, 7, and 8. These delve T-127 book.indb 5 8/24/11 9:22 AMvi | Automotive 2030 North America into practical technologies for eventually replacing oil. The book examines elec- tric battery vehicles, electric plug-ins and range-extended vehicles, and fuel c
18、ells that use pure hydrogen. The key issues for electric vehicles are cost and weight of batteries and the electrical infrastructure to recharge them. Fuel cell vehicle engi- neering has advanced substantially in the period leading to the present. The key issues for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are c
19、ost and durability of fuel cells, and the hydrogen infrastructure to refuel them. Given trends examined in this book, it is hard to predict either of them establishing themselves as widespread alternatives to gasoline before 2030. Nor can we predict that either will “win” after 2030. This book argue
20、s, from a purely technical viewpoint, that the jury is out on both. The other mega-trend examined is the emergence of the smart car. Newer, afford- able sensors including imaging, sonar, and radar, coupled with cheap and power- ful computers, should enable affordable autonomous driving by 2030. Howe
21、ver, key indicators that would signal this move, such as the low take rate of adaptive cruise control, argue otherwise. Outside of safety features, human drivers appear to be squeamish about transferring control to a robotic car. Adding communica- tion infrastructure elements to create a smart envir
22、onment, while elegant techni- cally, requires more investment than the U.S. can probably contemplate in the period leading up to 2030. The most we might expect is a mandate for vehicle-to- vehicle communication devices motivated by safety concerns. This trend should developor notby 2020. However, on
23、e scenario is the emergence of automated controls in the form of a Safe Guardian. This smart car intervenes only in the case of imminent danger. The conclusion of this book is that the period leading up to 2030 is a period of expectant development. We are preparing the North American automotive worl
24、d for a truly new driving experience to come after 2030. Reading this book will help prepare you and let you form your own opinions about what that might be. T-127 book.indb 6 8/24/11 9:22 AM Automotive 2030 North America | vii Contents Acknowledgments _viii Chapter One The Automotive World in North
25、 America Today _ 1 Chapter Two Steady March of Conventional Engines_ 17 Chapter Three Vehicle T echnologies and Transmissions _ 39 Chapter Four Vehicles on a DietUsing Lighter, Stronger Materials _ 51 Chapter Five Gasoline / Electric Hybrids _ 67 Chapter Six The Electric Car _ 85 Chapter Seven Plug-
26、ins and Range-Extended Electric Vehicles _ 101 Chapter Eight Fuel Cell Cars _ 107 Chapter Nine Safety and ContextCars Get Smart _ 127 Chapter Ten People, Human Nature, and Choices _ 139 Chapter Eleven Putting it all Together _ 149 About the Author _ 159 T-127 book.indb 7 8/24/11 9:22 AMviii | Automo
27、tive 2030 North America Acknowledgments A number of people were quite helpful in the production of this book. The individuals that were interviewed and quoted each took time to discuss their particular issue and in most cases reviewed the material to ensure accuracy. Two people, in particular, went
28、above and beyond in lending their expertise and insight: Richard Schultz, Managing Director for Automotive Materials with Ducker Worldwide, was kind enough to review all of Chapter 4, Vehicles on a Diet Using Lighter, Stronger Materials, and explained some of the important nu- ances of automotive ma
29、terials. Curtis Collie, Chief Engineer for Engine R&D for IAV , also was helpful in reviewing all of Chapter 2, again pointing out crucial meanings and relation- ships. Our many stimulating discussions about engine development through 2030 were illuminating and added energy to the written word. T-12
30、7 book.indb 8 8/24/11 9:22 AM Automotive 2030 North America | Chapter 1 | 1 Chapter One The Automotive World in North America T oday Past is prologue. Before projecting what might happen in the next 20 years, we should take a hard look at the last 20. This will help us understand just how far the au
31、tomotive world has progressed, as well as realize some of the cusps of his- tory we might be on right now. Certain themes jump out as evolving in the last 20 years or so. One theme has been our desire in North America for larger vehicles, as long as gas was cheap. During the same period, we have see
32、n cars literally electrify with the advent of gasoline / electric hybrids. In the recent past, new highs in gasoline prices showed the volatil- ity of gas and its shock on the industry. Cars have also become safer and smarter with the help of electronics. Can we make them even safer and even smarter
33、? In this chapter, let us take a closer look, singly, at what are probably the most im- portant trends. Surprises are hiding in plain sight. The move to big in North America A key element of the last twenty years is the growth in the physical size of vehicles. While human obesity may have grown in t
34、he same period, so have the carsor rather trucks, vans, and SUVswe now drive. Figure 1.1 shows both the abso- lute number of vehicles sold in North America and the relative breakout between trucks and cars. Big is what we wanted in North America. Will that continue in the next 20 years? T-127 book.i
35、ndb 1 8/24/11 9:22 AM2 | Automotive 2030 North America | Chapter 1 The everlasting car Have you ever looked under the hood of a modern car, say one that is only about five or at most 10 years old? If it were not running right, would you have any idea how to fix it? I am a trained mechanical engineer
36、 who worked in the automotive industry for six years and as an auto journalist for four, and I can tell you my only response would be to pull out my cell phone and call someone. I do not know how to fix my cell phone either. Even 20 years ago, fixing your car yourself was becoming difficult, with th
37、e advent of the fuel-injected, computer-controlled engine. It has become far more difficult Figure 1.1. In North America, the growth in larger vehicles, driven by the SUV boom, peaked in 2004 according to data provided to the EPA. However, long-term trends clearly show the desire for big vehicles 1.
38、 T-127 book.indb 2 8/24/11 9:22 AM Automotive 2030 North America | Chapter 1 | 3 now that some form of computer has control of most functions in cars. Some lux- ury cars have upwards of 70 of these controllers that individually drive windows, brakes, cruise control, and traction controlnot to mentio
39、n the main job of con- trolling the engine and transmission. Specialized computer-controlled equipment is needed to diagnose and repair our computerized cars. Our response to not knowing how to fix things is to demand that they never, ever break. That is exactly what we have come to expect from our
40、cars (or SUVs or trucks or vans.) We put the key in, it starts, we drive it, we fill it with gasoline, we park it, and we forget about it sometimes for a decade. We want an “appliance. ” Gone are the “shade tree” mechanics of yesteryear, although racing enthusiasts still exist who convert cars to st
41、reet dragsters or other kinds of hobby vehicles. Some cars today, if cared for even minimally, could last over 200,000 miles and well over 10 years. As we will discuss later, even if the trend continues for cars to last even longer (and why would it not given competitive pressures?), todays durabili
42、ty has pro- found implications on the future. For many of us, the choice of buying a new ve- hicle is more a matter of wanting a new one, not needing one. Some manufactur- ers may have not quite caught onto this yet. What it means to consumers may not be evident either. Peak oil, gasoline, and fuel
43、economy What made the personal automobile possible in the first place was gasoline. Gaso- line was initially an unwanted byproduct of converting crude oil into kerosene for lanterns. When it was put into the internal combustion engine (ICE), voila, it led to the dawn of the personal mobility age. Ev
44、en while gasoline prices actually fell for the first 15 of the last 20 years (when adjusted for inflation), concern over fuel economy remained a constant. People retained the memory of high fuel price spikes, especially the big jump in the “sec- ond oil shock” of 1979. The truth about the end of the
45、 oil era may be a bit more complicated. The concept of Peak Oil, one method often cited for predicting the end of the petroleum age, was first invented by M. King Hubbert in the 1950s 2. Hubbert predicted in 1956 that U.S. production of crude oil would peak in 1970, which turned out to be accurate.
46、More worryingly, he predicted that worldwide T-127 book.indb 3 8/24/11 9:22 AM4 | Automotive 2030 North America | Chapter 1 oil production would peak in 2000. Other analysts, using similar methods, more optimistically predict world oil production as peaking in 2036. In any case, no one is predicting
47、 unlimited supplies forever, even while we may have reached peak oil, though we are not sure. A few key take-aways are relevant. One is that all the mathematics used to pre- dict the drop in oil production shows that it will decrease slowly at first, then more quickly. There will be some kind of war
48、ning. Two is that new technology advancements tend to shift the date for peak oil into the future. After all, Colonel Drakes first oil well in 1859 was only 69 feet deep but considered technically infea- sible until he invented several key technologies, such as bore-hole casements. To- days wells are drilled thousands of feet below the surface in fields that sometimes contain hydrogen sulfide, sand, or water. Finally, point three, natur
