1、Bruce Morey Future Automotive Fuels And Energy T-128 book.indb 1 8/1/13 11:49 AMOther SAE books of interest: Fuel/Engine Interactions By Gautam Kalghatgi (Product Code: R-409) Automotive 2030North America By Bruce Morey (Product Code: T-127) Automotive Fuels Reference Book, Second Edition By Keith O
2、wen and Trevor Coley (Product Code: R-151) For more information or to order a book, contact: SAE International 400 Commonwealth Drive Warrendale, PA 15096-0001 USA Phone: 877-606-7323 (U.S. and Canada only) or 724-776-4970 (outside U.S. and Canada) Fax: 724-776-0790; Email: CustomerServicesae.org; W
3、ebsite: books.sae.org T-128 book.indb 2 8/1/13 11:49 AMFuture Automotive Fuels And Energy By Bruce Morey Warrendale, Pennsylvania, USA T-128 book.indb 3 8/1/13 11:49 AM Copyright 2013 SAE International eISBN: 978-0-7680-8032-2Copyright 2013 SAE International. All rights reserved. No part of this pub
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5、org; phone: 724-772-4028; fax: 724-772-9765. ISBN 978-0-7680-7502-1 Library of Congress Catalog Number 2013943406 SAE Order Number T-128 DOI 10.4271/T-128 Information contained in this work has been obtained by SAE International from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither SAE Internationa
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9、0 (outside USA) Fax: 724-776-0790 T-128 book.indb 4 8/1/13 11:49 AMv Table of Contents Acknowledgments . ix Executive Summary . xi Introduction 1 Chapter One Oil and The Age of Mobility 5 1.1 Interpretation of EventsWhat Is Your Flavor? 6 1.1.1 Peak Oil Revisited 6 1.1.2 Realists Respond with Histor
10、y 8 1.2 Global Oil Markets, Worldwide Pricing, and Availability 9 1.3 Unconventional Oil and Investment 10 1.4 Predictions and Models . 13 1.5 Infrastructure and Global Resilience 14 1.6 Taxes, Regulations, and Prices . 15 1.7 Key Uncertainties over Oil Supply . 16 1.8 Summary . 17 1.9 Things to Loo
11、k For 18 References . 18 Further Reading . 20 Chapter Two Natural Gas and Transport 21 2.1 Almost PetroleumOnly Simpler 22 2.2 Converting Natural Gas to Liquid Fuels 23 2.3 Using Natural Gas Directly 27 2.3.1 Converting Gasoline ICEs to NGVs . 27 2.3.2 Purpose-Built NGVs 28 2.3.3 Infrastructure for
12、NGVs . 29 2.4 CNG and Trucking . 31 2.5 Price VariabilityThe Key Question 32 2.6 Key Uncertainties . 33 2.7 Summary . 34 2.8 Things to Look For . 35 References . 36 T-128 book.indb 5 8/1/13 11:49 AMvi Chapter Three Biofuels 39 3.1 Issues and AlternativesConversion, Scale, and Land Use 39 3.2 Wood fo
13、r FuelCellulosic Ethanol . 41 3.3 Blend WallsMotivation for Drop-in Biofuels . 43 3.4 Drop-in Fuels 44 3.5 A Green FutureAlgae . 45 3.6 Location, Location, and Incentives 47 3.7 Key Uncertainties . 50 3.8 Summary . 50 3.9 Things to Look For . 50 References . 52 Chapter Four Electricity, Infrastructu
14、re, and eMobility . 55 4.1 Chargers and What We Call Them 57 4.2 Charging Cost and ConvenienceKey Deciding Factors 59 4.3 Infrastructure DensityHow Many Chargers? . 60 4.4 Battery Swapping . 61 4.5 Worldwide Snapshot . 62 4.6 Key Uncertainties . 64 4.7 Summary . 64 4.8 Things to Look For . 65 Refere
15、nces . 66 Chapter Five Hydrogen and Infrastructure .69 5.1 Making and Distributing Hydrogen . 71 5.2 Comparisons of Delivery Methods . 73 5.3 Infrastructure Cost and Adoption . 74 5.4 Early Market Development Programs 76 5.5 The Bigger PictureRenewable Energy and Hydrogen 78 5.6 Key Uncertainties .
16、78 5.7 Summary . 78 5.8 Things to Look For . 80 References . 80 T-128 book.indb 6 8/1/13 11:49 AMvii Chapter Six Summary and Speculations .83 6.1 Concerns Driving AlternativesDemand, Supply, Environment 83 6.2 Nations and Oil Imports . 84 6.3 Trucks versus Cars . 86 6.4 Uncertainties Affecting Deman
17、d . 87 6.5 Critical Supply Uncertainties . 88 6.6 Speculation and BreakthroughsThings to Look For 89 References . 90 About the Author 93 T-128 book.indb 7 8/1/13 11:49 AMT-128 book.indb 8 8/1/13 11:49 AMix Acknowledgments A number of people were quite helpful in the production of this book. The indi
18、- viduals that were interviewed and quoted each took time to discuss their particu- lar issue and in most cases reviewed the material to ensure accuracy. Two people, in particular, went above and beyond in lending their expertise and insight: Charles Freese, Executive Director, General Motors Powert
19、rain Engineering, was kind enough to review all of chapter 5, Hydrogen Fuel Infrastructure, and helped me understand some of the important nuances. Martha Swiss, my commissioning editor from SAE International, was diligent enough to check and challenge some of the broad concepts in the book while re
20、- taining an eye for the most vital details. T-128 book.indb 9 8/1/13 11:49 AMT-128 book.indb 10 8/1/13 11:49 AMxi Executive Summary This book examines the promise and perils of replacing petroleum to power to- days cars and trucks. Its examination is fuel-centric in that it looks at the supply of a
21、ny particular source, the infrastructure needed to deliver it, and the compara- tive desirability of that option. Vehicles and vehicle technology are not examined in great depth, as there are other sources of that information available for auto- motive engineers. The Introduction and chapter 1, Oil
22、and the Age of Mobility, set the stage for all subsequent chapters. The Introduction discusses the eight factors this book uses to compare fuels. Chapter 1 shows that the world is not likely to run out of oil, at least not before the year 2035, and explains why. Chapter 1 also shows how oil has beco
23、me a commodity that is traded worldwide, much more so than in the era of the price shocks of the 1970s. Chapters 2, 3, 4, and 5 examine the most popular alternative fuels discussed in various forums in 2012 and use simplistic charts to compare each to petroleum in terms of the eight factors. Chapter
24、 2, Natural Gas and Transport, presents data about natural gas or fuels derived from natural gas, their supply, and the infra- structure to supply it. Two options exist for natural gasadapt vehicles or adapt the fuel using gas-to-liquid technology. Chapter 2 discusses each of these op- tions. Chapte
25、r 3, Biofuels, discusses fuels derived from renewable sources, such as corn, soybeans, wood, grass, or algae. In particular, chapter 3 raises the issue of scale and biofuels. The chapter discusses why it will be difficult for the world to use much biofuel as an alternative to petroleum. Chapter 4, E
26、lectricity, Infra- structure, and eMobility, discusses the practicalities of electricity infrastructure and battery electric vehicles. As a fuel, electricity is highly desirable. Most of the issues with adopting it lie in problems with batteries as part of the vehicle tech- nology. Chapter 5, Hydrog
27、en and Infrastructure, discusses costs and implications of a hydrogen refueling system, in particular for fuel-cell electric vehicles. Chapter 6, Summary and Speculations, tries to tie in the mass of data and in- formation from the previous chapters with an overview on worldwide demand trends pulled
28、 from various sources. It also provides some speculation and, most importantly, trends and events to look for as the future unfolds. A major conclusion stated in this book is that the world is not likely to run out of oil or pass any peak in production before 2035. The more severe threats to oil sup
29、ply are geopolitical events, wars, and natural catastrophes. The greatest threat to price is that demand may outstrip supply of oil, leading to at least temporary shortages. Most importantly for automotive engineers, while oil is not likely to run out, it is also not likely to drop in price precipit
30、ously either. Fuel economy remains a prime imperative as prices remain close to historic highs. T-128 book.indb 11 8/1/13 11:49 AMxii There are other compelling reasons for considering a switch to an alternative fuel besides price. Individual nations that import most of their oil for transport may b
31、e nervous about their own future supplies. Chapter 6 details those nations in the world that would have the most to gain from an alternative. Not surprisingly, many of these same nations have active programs in alternative fuels. There also remain concerns about CO 2and other, more toxic emissions t
32、hat may compel a change. Chapter 6 also discusses local prohibitions in low emissions zones (LEZs). Look for continued interest in alternative fuels and programs sponsored through industry/government consortia in European Union countries and Japan, especially with electric and hydrogen fuel-cell ele
33、ctric vehicles. In some ways, natural gas as an alternative embodies both environmental and economic imperatives. Natural gas burns cleaner than gasoline or diesel. Since approximately 2008, it is abundant and cheap in North America. Certain na- tions have taken to heart the use of compressed natura
34、l gas (CNG) as an alterna- tive fuel, such as Iran, Pakistan, and Brazil, as discussed in chapter 2. Each has millions of vehicles running on CNG. With natural gas cheaper to extract with enhanced recovery techniques, one could easily speculate on these countries as well as China, Russia, the United
35、 States, Canada, India, or Mexico adopting even more CNG vehicles. Natural gas is a test case for the worlds readiness to adopt an alternative fuel. There are no technical risks or barriers to overcome in the vehicles. CNG or lique- fied natural gas (LNG) vehicles have been around for decades, provi
36、ding trouble- free and robust operation. Building the infrastructure is not as onerous as with electricity or hydrogen. There are lessons to be learned by watching natural gas as an alternative fuel through 2015 or 2020. T-128 book.indb 12 8/1/13 11:49 AM1 Introduction Introduction Many think altern
37、ative fuels promise an exciting, cleaner future for personal mo- bility. We have a gnawing fear that oil is a finite resource that has to run out some- timeperhaps soon. When it does, we will need to replace it. A substantial num- ber of credible scientists believe that the burning of fossil fuels i
38、s contributing to global climate change. That makes some alternative fuels attractive, such as elec- tricity or hydrogen, with their promise of zero-emissions vehicles. Independent of these concerns, others fear loss of national energy independence, such as occurred with the oil embargo and fuel cri
39、sis experiences in 1973 and again in 1979. In oth- er words, oil will not last forever; we do not like what it emits from our tailpipes; and many nations fear the loss of control by importing it from outside their bor- ders. These seem like good reasons to search for fuel alternatives to oil. In res
40、ponse, the industry has seen waves of excitement and interest in alternative fuels. Hybrid electric cars first debuted in significant numbers at the turn of the 21st century. These hybrids are a way to get more mileage from existing gasoline. There was also considerable interest around hydrogen-powe
41、red fuel cells as a lon- ger-term solution. These promised zero-emission vehicles. However, within a few years, problems with fuel cells became apparent, and the next wave of exhilara- tion over zero-emission vehicles came with battery electric vehicles. Unfortunate- ly, battery electric vehicles in
42、 the second decade of the century still require much development if they are ever to replace gasoline-powered cars. Renewable liquid fuels from crops and other plant-based sources, called biofuels, offered the prom- ise of national energy independence. These have also not matured to the point of rep
43、lacing gasoline in significant quantities or without government incentives. There is a recurring theme here: first, initial enthusiasm, tremendous press and analyst activity, then a slow fade as another Next Big Thing garners anticipation. As we look forward, is it likely that any one of these techn
44、ologies may eventually catch on? Will they need to? The essential purpose of this book is to shed light on three essential questions: 1. What is the likely supply of gasoline and diesel from oil worldwide to power light vehicles and trucks through 20302035? 2. Could any other fuel economically repla
45、ce gasoline? Will different parts of the world answer that question differently? 3. How will the answers to these questions affect what we engineer, make, and drive in the 20302035 period? T-128 book.indb 1 8/1/13 11:49 AM2 Introduction If there were no cheaper alternatives, no concern about polluti
46、on or warming, and no lingering suspicions over energy independence, oil would remain the worlds transport fuel of choice. Why? Gasoline and diesel are easy to handle, refill a tank in just a few minutes, and drivers can get several hundred miles be- tween fill-ups. The weight of a full tank is not
47、particularly onerous. It is the most compact of any fuel for transport. Gasoline, and later diesel, internal combustion engines won out over their early steam and electric competitors at the beginning of the Mobility Age just because of this convenience 0-1. In 2010, the world on average used about
48、87 million bbl per day 1of oil 0-2. Credible projections indicate the world could well use over 100 million bbl per day by 2035. The United States alone uses 18 to 20 million bbl per day. Almost all of that oil95%is used for transport fuels, which is why you should continue to read this book if you
49、are an automotive professional 0-3. Can the world sus- tain such a rate of usage? Another basic assumption of this book is that we are addicted to personal mobil- ity. We will always want, or need, to drive our own personal cars. Commerce is more economical when individual truck transport is available point-to-point. That is, a truck carrying finished goods, say furniture, is more efficient when leaving a furniture factory and dropping off directly at the retailer. Timing is critical to understanding our world, which is one reason to read this book. As diffi
