1、专业八级-209 及答案解析(总分：100.00，做题时间：90 分钟)一、LISTENING COMPREHENS(总题数：0，分数：0.00)二、SECTION A MINI-LECTU(总题数：1，分数：60.00)Statistics. Statistics in 1 A. Irregularities in the balloting: the third-party candidate Pat Buchanan got 2 of votes than he did elsewhere. B. The defendant is guilty or not - Expert: a. A
2、 DNA sample 3 . b. The possibility of odds is one in million. - Defense lawyer: if in a city of three million people, there are 4 matching each other“s DNA. . Statistics in cases against 5 A. Universities add additional points to minority group students. They unlawfully make a/an 6 for those student
3、s. B. Annie was kept from 7 . Her lawyer used statistics to show that workers with the same qualifications who were not in 8 were promoted. C. Tobacco companies started to lose cases because of 9 -Statistics should be 10 along with other evidence. . 11 A. 12 : - Bert could no longer work. - Statisti
4、cians predict how long he would have worked and how much he would have made. B. Multiple regression analysis: - Statisticians find 13 for all the sample data when 14 are at work. . Statistics on the witness stand A. experts know how to 15 B. cross examine and challenge the validity of statistics （分数
5、：60.00）填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_填空项 1:_三、SECTION B CONVERSATI(总题数：2，分数：40.00)（分数：20.00）A.They are colleagues.B.They are classmates.C.They are lovers.D.They are family members.A.Dr. Owen“s lecture.B.How to write a research paper
6、.C.Farming technology.D.How to collect information.A.Computers.B.Mobile phones.C.Farming technology.D.A, B and CA.Because it is the easiest topic to write.B.Because it is a unique topic to write.C.Because it is the most essential technology.D.Because both of them like this topic best.A.5,000 years a
7、go.B.10,000 years ago.C.2,000 years ago.D.8,000 years ago.（分数：20.00）A.Explosion in technology.B.Explosion in populationC.Explosion in farming.D.Explosion in computer.A.Early 18th century.B.Early 19th century.C.Early 20th century.D.Early 21th century.A.Mechanical technology.B.Gene technology.C.Modem
8、technology.D.Farming technology.A.Impact of farming technology on Industrial Revolution.B.Technology used in modem fanning method.C.Inventions made in the 19th century.D.Inventions made in the 20th century.A.Next Tuesday.B.Next Monday.C.Next Wednesday.D.Next Thursday.专业八级-209 答案解析(总分：100.00，做题时间：90
9、分钟)一、LISTENING COMPREHENS(总题数：0，分数：0.00)二、SECTION A MINI-LECTU(总题数：1，分数：60.00)Statistics. Statistics in 1 A. Irregularities in the balloting: the third-party candidate Pat Buchanan got 2 of votes than he did elsewhere. B. The defendant is guilty or not - Expert: a. A DNA sample 3 . b. The possibilit
10、y of odds is one in million. - Defense lawyer: if in a city of three million people, there are 4 matching each other“s DNA. . Statistics in cases against 5 A. Universities add additional points to minority group students. They unlawfully make a/an 6 for those students. B. Annie was kept from 7 . Her
11、 lawyer used statistics to show that workers with the same qualifications who were not in 8 were promoted. C. Tobacco companies started to lose cases because of 9 -Statistics should be 10 along with other evidence. . 11 A. 12 : - Bert could no longer work. - Statisticians predict how long he would h
12、ave worked and how much he would have made. B. Multiple regression analysis: - Statisticians find 13 for all the sample data when 14 are at work. . Statistics on the witness stand A. experts know how to 15 B. cross examine and challenge the validity of statistics （分数：60.00）填空项 1:_ （正确答案：the courtroo
13、m）解析： the courtroom 听力原文 StatisticsToday, we are going to study on statistics. Firstly, let“s see the effect of statistics in the courtroom. After the November 2000 election, Americans waited while court challenges debated who won Florida“s electoral votes. In Palm Beach County, third-party candidat
14、e Pat Buchanan got a higher percentage of votes than he did elsewhere. Was that because the country“s “butterfly ballot“ caused many Albert Gore supporters to punch the wrong hole? Lawyers also argued about other claimed irregularities in the balloting. The Supreme Court finally stopped all vote rec
15、ounts in early December. But if Gore“s statistical arguments had convinced the judges, he would have become president instead of George W. Bush. More than ever, plaintiffs must often prove their case with numbers. Let“s see how statistics is taking center stage in some other courtroom cases. Let“s s
16、ee the first case whether the defendant is guilty or not. Imagine you“re on the jury in a murder case. An expert testifies about DNA evidence. She says that a sample from the crime scene matches a defendant“s. She also gives the odds that someone else would randomly match the tested fragments. If th
17、e odds are one in a million, that makes it sound very likely that the defendant is, in fact, guilty. The defense lawyer may try to counter that by saying that in a city of three million people, at least two others would also probably match. Of course, the defendant was not arrested at random. Almost
18、 always, police have some other evidence linking a person to a crime. But the statistics supporting DNA evidence may be just the proof needed to find someone guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Now, I would like you to look at the cases against unjust discrimination. In a US Supreme Court case earlier
19、 this year, lawyers argued over whether a state university“s admissions plan unlawfully added points for students from certain minority groups. Statistically, that made it easier for those students to get in. Statistics factors into other discrimination cases, too. Suppose Annie claims that unlawful
20、 discrimination kept her from getting a promotion. Her lawyers may use statistics to show that workers with the same qualifications were significantly more likely to get promotions if they were male or not in a minority group. If the employer can“t show that Annie didn“t do her job well, she could t
21、hen win her case. Age, family history, exercise habits, diet, weight, and other factors affect the likelihood of developing cancer, heart disease, and other illnesses. For years, tobacco companies said that smoking was not the cause of plaintiffs getting sick. They won most cases against them. Then,
22、 judges and juries listened to statistical evidence that even when other factors were equal, smokers had much higher disease risks. Finally, some cases started to hold tobacco companies liable, or legally responsible. Of course, the plaintiffs had other evidence, too. Tobacco companies“ own document
23、s showed that they knew about disease risks. Yet their ads still targeted young people. In other words, the statistics did not stand alone. When using statistics, it is important to understand that statistical evidence complements other forms of evidence. Statistical evidence should be evaluated alo
24、ng with other evidence and not alone. And then how can the court work out the compensation the victims should gain? Statistics help add up damages actually. Statistics help decide how much people or companies must pay if they are liable. Suppose a defect in a car caused an accident. As a result, Ber
25、t could no longer work. Statistics could show how long Bert would otherwise have worked and how much he probably would have made. When two variables correlate with each other statisticians can often predict one Value from another with regression analysis. If someone plotted all the data points on a
26、scatter plot, the analysis would find the line with the best fit through them. But suppose that people in case claimed that nearby pollution lowered property values for a whole neighborhood. It may be unfair just to match sale prices with distance from the pollution, or to compare average prices wit
27、h another town. After all, many factors affect property values: style of house, size, age, number of bathrooms, and so forth. That“s where multiple regression analysis can help. It finds the “best fit“ for all the sample data when multiple independent variables are at work. It nets out the effects o
28、f all these things that are different, so that you are comparing apples to apples. You will also know that statistics have the power on the witness stand. Good statistical experts make numbers “user-friendly“ for the judge and jury. Many use high-tech graphics and other tools to present their conclu
29、sions. But “statistics can be and have been misused, typically when people have interpreted that statistics to mean more than they really do. A good statistician is careful to explain just how reliable the statistics really are. Cross-examination lets each side attack the other side“s analysis flawe
30、d. Were data accurate, or may they have been biased? What was the margin of error? Did one unusual observation, or outlier, unfairly affect the outcome? Finally, the jury weighs statistical evidence along with all the other evidence. The verdict makes a real difference in the lives of parties to a c
31、aseand to our justice system. Today, we“ve talked about the magic of statistics working in various fields and events, like in the court, in the issues against discrimination, in calculating damages and on the testimony. I hope you would have had a good time. 解析 细节题。讲座提到统计影响我们生活的方方面面，首先可以先看看统计在法庭上的影响
32、：Firstly, let“s see the effect of statistics in the courtroom. 因此答案是 the courtroom或者courtrooms。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：a higher percentage）解析： a higher percentage解析 细节题。讲座开篇提到了统计在美国大选中的影响，比如 2000年美国总统选举的结果就备受质疑：In Palm Beach County, third-party candidate Pat Buchanan got a higher percentage of votes than he
33、did elsewhere. Buchanan在 Palm Beach County所得的选票比他在其他地方得的要多，有人甚至怀疑有可能是戈尔的支持者在选票上打错孔所致，因此答案是 a higher percentage。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：matches defendant“s）解析： matches defendant“s解析 细节题。讲座中提到：An expert testifies about DNA evidence. She says that a sample from the crime scene matches a defendant“s. (专家对于 DNA的测
34、试结果表明，犯罪现场留存的 DNA和被告的相符。) 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：three people/two other people）解析： three people/two other people解析 推断题。既然 100万人的 DNA各不相同，那么可以推断出 300万人里有三人的 DNA可能是相符的。当然讲座中的信息也验证了这一点：The defense lawyer may try to counter that by saying that in a city of three million people, at least two others would also pro
35、bably match. 因此答案是 three people。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：unjust discriminatio）解析： unjust discrimination解析 要点题。根据讲座原文“Now, I would like you to look at the cases against unjust discrimination. ”可知答案为 unjust discrimination。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：easier admission/access）解析： easier admission/access解析 归总题。讲座提到：In a US Supr
36、eme Court case earlier this year, lawyers argued over whether a state university“s admissions plan unlawfully added points for students from certain minority groups Statistically, that made it easier for those students to get in. 这一段话的总体意思是大学违规操作，擅自给少数民族学生加分，降低他们的入学难度。由此可以归纳出 easier admission/access
37、这个答案。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：getting a promotion/promotio）解析： getting a promotion/promotion解析 细节题。讲座中明确指出：Suppose annie claims that unlawful discrimination kept her from getting a promotion. 可将 geeing a promotion直接拷贝入题。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：a minority group）解析： a minority group解析 细节题。讲座中提到：workers with the same qua
38、lifications were significantly more likely to get promotions if they were male or not in a minority group. 由此可见，不是少数民族的员工容易得到升迁机会。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：use of statistics/using statistical evidence）解析： use of statistics/using statistical evidence解析 推断题。讲座中说道：Then, judges and juries listened to statistical e
39、vidence that even when other factors were equal, smokers had much higher disease risks. Finally, some cases started to hold tobacco companies liable, or legally responsible. 从中可以推断后来法官和陪审团听取了吸烟会提升致病风险的数据报告，因此有的烟草公司就打输了官司，这里起到关键作用的是数据证据的使用，因此答案是 use of statistics。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：evaluated）解析： evaluate
40、d解析 细节题。讲座里明确提到数据证据需要和其他证据一起评价：Statistical evidence should be evaluated along with other evidence and not alone. 因此答案为 evaluated。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：Statistics in calculatio）解析： Statistics in calculation解析 归总题。讲座中这一部分谈到数据分析可以帮助计算损失、计算赔偿等：Statistics help add up damages actually. Statistics help decide how
41、 much people or companies must pay if they are liable. 因此这一部分可以归纳成 statistics in calculation。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：Regression analysis）解析： Regression analysis解析 要点题讲座中是这么描述的：Suppose a defect in a car caused an accident. As a result, Bert could no longer work. Statistics could show how long Bert would other
42、wise have worked and how much he probably would have made. When two variables correlate with each other statisticians can often predict one value from another with regression analysis. 讲座者归根结底是想要引 regression analysis，并且阐述 regression analysis的用处。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：the best fit）解析： the best fit解析 细节题。在多元回
43、归分析中，统计者必须找到与数据样本拟合程度最高的数学模型：That“s where multiple regression analysis can help. It finds the “best fit“ for all the sample data when multiple independent variables are at work. 因此答案是 the best fit。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：multiple independent variables）解析： multiple independent variables解析 细节题。根据讲座相关内容“It find
44、s the “best fit“ for all the sample data when multiple independent variables are at work. ”可以直接得出答案multiple independent variables(多个独立变量)，这里需要注意单词的拼写。 填空项 1:_ （正确答案：make numbers/statistics user-friendly）解析： make numbers/statistics user-friendly解析 细节题。根据讲座相关内容“Good statistical experts make numbers “u
45、ser-friendly“ for the judge and jury. ”即可得出答案为make statistics user-friendly(使统计数字看上去更通俗易懂)。 三、SECTION B CONVERSATI(总题数：2，分数：40.00)（分数：20.00）A.They are colleagues.B.They are classmates. C.They are lovers.D.They are family members.解析：听力原文 T: Hi, Hannah. I was wondering when I“d bump into you. You know
46、 we only have another two weeks to complete that essay on modem technology for Dr. Owen. H: I know, Terry. But don“t worry because I“ve been doing some research and I“ve got some great ideas. T: Such as? H: Well, it“s my guess that most people will write about computers, because that“s what everyone
47、 thinks about when they hear the word technology. T: But that“s what technology is, isn“t it? H: Yes, of course it is. But it“s many other things besides. T: What, like mobile phones, that sort of thing? H: Yes, but what about farming technology? It“s as much a part of people“s lives as computers or
48、 mobile phones. T: What do you mean? H: Just imagine, for a moment, if farmers couldn“t grow enough food to feed everyone. Then economics would mean nothing because no one would be able to work. Or even willing to go to work for that matter. T: Yes, I see your point. Like those countries in Africa where people are starving. H: Yes, indeed. The
