1、 - API PUBL*326 94 0732270 0537837 T48 The Cost Effectiveness of VOC and NO, Emission Control - Measures HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS API PUBLICATION NUMBER 326 SEPTEMBER 1994 American Petroleum Institute 1220 L street, JoIthwest Washington, D.C. 20005 A API PUBLa32b 94 = 0732290 0537838 784 The
2、 Cost Effectiveness of VOC and NO, Emission Control Measures Health and Environmental Affairs Department PUBLICATION NUMBER 326 PREPARED UNDER CONTRACT BY: RADIAN CORPORATION AUSTIN, TEXAS 78720-1 088 MAY 1994 Amerlcan Petroleum Institute FOREWORD API PUBLICATIONS NECESSARILY ADDRESS PROBLEMS OF A G
3、ENERAL NATURE. WITH RESPECT TO PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES, LOCAL, STATE, AND FEDERAL LAWS AND REGULATIONS SHOULD BE REVIEWED. API IS NOT UNDERTAKING TO MEET THE DUTIES OF EMPLOYERS, MANUFAC- TURERS, OR SUPPLIERS To WARN AND PROPERLY TRAIN AND EQUIP THEIR EMPLOYEES, AND OTHERS EXPOSED. CONCERNING HEALT
4、H AND SAFETY RISKS AND PRECAUTIONS, NOR UNDERTAKING THEIR OBLIGATIONS UNDER LOCAL, STATE, OR FEDERAL LAWS. NOTHING CONTAINED IN ANY API PUBLICATION IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS GRANTING ANY RIGHT, BY 1I“LICATION OR OTHERWISE, FOR THE MANU- FACTURE, SALE, OR USE OF ANY METHOD, APPARATUS, OR PRODUCT COV- ERE
5、D BY LETTERS PATENT. NEITHER SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED IN ITY FOR INFRINGEMENT OF LETERS PATENT. THE PUBLICATION BE CONSTRUED AS INSURING ANYONE. AGAINST LIABIL- API PUBL*32b 94 m 0732290 0537840 532 m ABSTRACT The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 require that ozone nonattainment areas reduce total
6、volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by specified amounts, for certain milestone years. In addition, EPA may require similar reductions of nitrogen oxides (NO,) in the future. For most nonattainment areas, the controls required to meet these Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) milestones may be v
7、ery costly. Therefore air pollution control plans must evaluate available emission control options in order to develop the most cost-effective strategy for meeting their RFP reduction targets. Because of local variations in the types of sources and emission rates, these strategies must be developed
8、on an area-specific basis. An RFP analysis was performed for five different ozone nonattainment areas: Baltimore; Chicago; Houston; Philadelphia; and, Washington, D.C The first step in this effort entailed collecting VOC and NO, emission inventory information fi-om the various state agencies. Next,
9、potential control measures were identified from an extensive literature review, considering both technical and economic constraints. In addition, emissions modeling was performed to estimate the effect of mobile source controls for each area. Cost-effectiveness rankings were developed and total prog
10、ress toward RFP targets were estimated. Available controls range in cost-effectiveness from a net savings up to $500,000 per ton of pollutant. Controls of the currently unregulated non-road mobile source category are essential to meeting these long-run targets. Additional study of the feasibility of
11、 applying NO, controls to major point sources is crucial to assess total reduction potentials accurately. API PUBL*32b 94 I 0732270 0537842 479 = TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY e5-1 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1-1 Background . 1-1 Purpose of Study . 1-2 Approach 1-2 2.0 KEY SOURCE CATEGORIES WITHIN S
12、ELECTED OZONE NONATIAINMENT AREAS . 2-1 Introduction . 2-1 DataGathering 2-2 SourceCategorization . 2-4 Major Source Categories . 2-5 3.0 VOC AND NO. CONTROLS FOR POINT AND AREA SOURCES . 3-1 Controls in Place in 1990 . 3-1 InformationSources . 3-2 Point and Area Source VOC Controls . 3-3 Summary of
13、 Selected VOC Control Measures 3-7 Point and Area Source NO. Controls 3.15 NO. Formation and Control 3-15 Summary of Selected NO. Control Measures . 3-16 Possiile Controls for Major NQ Source Categories 3-22 Non-road VOC and NQ Sources . 3-27 General VOC and NO. Controls 3-30 Agriculture Equipment .
14、 3-32 Rail . 3-33 Airplanes . 3-33 Marine Vessels . 3.34 Lawn and Garden 3.34 . Industrial/Commercial Equipment . 3-35 Heavy Construction Equipment . 3-36 Summary of Potential Reduction for Non-Road Mobil Sources . -3-37 Market-Based Approaches 3-42 4.0 EMSSIOFJ REDUCTION STRATEGES FOR MOBIL SOURCES
15、 4-1 Overview of Contro options 4-2 State II Refueling Controls 4-2 Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) 4-2 API PUBL*32b 94 0732290 0537842 305 M Enhanced and Expanded Inspection/Maintenance Programs . 4-3 California Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Program . 4-3 Centrally Fueled Fleet Program . 4-4 Early Vehicle
16、 Retirement (Scrappage) 4-5 Transportation Control Measures 4-5 Baseline Mobil Source Emissions Estimates . 4-6 Emission Reductions From Additional Mobile Source Controls 4-9 StageII . 4.10 Reformulated Gasoiine (RFG) . 4-11 RFG - Complex Model Results 4-13 Enhanced I/M and Evaporative Systems Check
17、 . 4-14 Expanded I/M and Evaporative Systems Check . 4-15 LEV/Tier II . 4-16 Clean Fuel Fleet Programs 4-18 Vehicle Scrappage Programs . 4-19 Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Mobile Source Control Options 4-20 Stage II Vapor Recovery Controls . 4-21 Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) . 4-21 Inspection/Maint
18、enance (I/M) Programs 4-25 Low Emission Vehicles/Tier II . 4-30 Clean Fuel Fleet Program . 4-37 Vehicle Scrappage Program 4-38 Summary of Mobile Source Control Cost-Effectiveness 4-39 4-42 Transportation Control Measures (TCMs) 5.0 EVALUATION OF STRATEGIES FOR MEETiNG RFP REQUIREMENTS . 5-1 WMilesto
19、nes 5-1 Analytical Approach 5-2 Adjusted Baseline and Target Reductions . 5-2 Projected Emission Levels . 5-3 Reductions from Controls . 5-5 1996 ROP Anaiyses . VOCs 5-10 Baltimore . 5-10 Houston 5.11 Chicago . 5.11 Philadelphia . 5-16 1999 and 2010 ROP Analyses - VOCs . 5.22 Potential NQ Reductions
20、 5-23 Baltimore . 5-27 Chicago . 5.28 Philadelphia . 5-32 D.C. . 5-32 D.C. . 5.20 Houston 5.28 API PUBL*326 94 0732290 0537843 241 W Conclusions . 5-32 GLOSSARY REFERENCES APPENDICES Appendix A - 1990 Emissions Inventories Appendix B - Utility NQ Cost-Effectiveness Calculations Appendix C - VOC Cont
21、rol Measure Rankings Appendix D - Stationary Source VOC Control Measures Appendix E - Stationary Source NO, Control Measures Es- 1 ES-2 Es-3 Es4 Es-5 ES-6 2- 1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6 2-7 2-8 2-9 2-10 5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 5-5 5-6 LIST OF FIGURES Page Rate of Progress Plans by City . e5-5 NO, Emission Reducti
22、ons in Baltimore e5-6 NO, Emission Reductions in Chicago NO, Emission Reductions in Houston . e5-8 NO, Emission Reductions in Philadelphia NO, Emission Reductions in D.C. e5-7 e5-9 e5-10 . VOC Emissions in the Baltimore Nonattainment Area 2-6 VOC Emissions in the Chicago Nonattainment Area . 2-7 VOC
23、 Emissions in the Houston Nonattainment Area . 2-8 VOC Emissions in the Philadelphia Nonatrainment Area 2-9 VOC Emissions in the D.C. Nonattainment Area 2-10 NO, Emissions in the Baltimore Nonattainment Area 2-11 NO, Emissions in the Chicago Nonattainment Area 2-12 NO, Emissions in the Houston Nonat
24、tainment Area . 2-13 NO, Emissions in the Philadelphia Nonattainment Area . 2-14 NO, Emissions in the D.C. Nonatabment Area 2-15 1996 Rate of Progress Plans . 5-25 NO, Emissions Reductions . Baltimore . 5-35 NO, Emissions Reductions . Chicago NQ Emissions Reductions . Houston 5-37 NO, Emissions Redu
25、ctions . Philadelphia . 5-38 NO, Emissions Reductions . D.C. . 5-39 5-36 API PUBLx32b 94 0732290 0537845 CIL4 2- 1 2-2 2-3 2-4 3- 1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 3-7 3-8 3-9 3-10 4-1 4-2 4-3 44 4-5 4-6 4-7 4-8 4-9 4-10 4-11 LIST OF TABLES Pape Sources of Inventory Information 2-3 Emission Cutpoints 2-4 Major
26、VOC Source Distribution 2-16 Major NO. Source Distribution . 2-17 Ranking of Stationary Source VOC Control Categories . 3-5 Ranking of Stationary Source NO. Control Technologies Ranking of Stationary Source NO. Control Categories 3-27 impact of Non-Road Sources on Total VOC Inventory 3-28 Impact of
27、Non-Road Sources on Total NO. Inventory 3-29 Non-Road Mobile Source Controls . Baltimore . 3-38 Non-Road Mobile Source Controls . Chicago 3-39 Non-Road Mobile Source Controls . Houston . 3-40 Non-Road Mobile Source Controls . Philadelphia . 3-41 Non-Road Mobile Source Controls . D.C. . 342 3-17 Emis
28、sion Factor Modeling Summary . 4-8 Comparison of Radian and State TPD Estimates 4-8 Mobile Source Control Scenarios 4-9 VOC Reductions from Stage II . 4-10 VOC Reductions from Phase I Federal RFG . 4-12 VOC and NQ Reductions for Phase II Federal and California RFG . 4-12 VOC Emissions Reductions fro
29、m Phase I Federal RFG . 4-14 VOC and NO. Reductions from Phase II RFG - Complex Model . 4-14 VOC and NQ Reductions from Enhanced I/M of Qht-Duty Fleet . . 4-15 VOC and NO. Reductions from Expanded I/M of Heavy-Duty Fleet . 4-16 VOC and NO. Reductions for EVs . 4-17 API PUBL*326 94 O732290 0537846 T5
30、0 E 4- 12 4-u 4-14 4- 15 4-16a 4-17a 4-16b 41% 4-18 4-19 4-20 4-21 4-22 4-23 4-24 4-25 4-26 4-27 4-28 4-29 4-30 4-31 4-32 4-33 4-34 4-35 4-36 5-1 5-2 VOC and NO. Reductions from Tier II . 4-18 VOC and NO. Reductions for Clean Fleet Program 4-19 VOC Reductions for Scrappage Program 4-19 Estimated Inc
31、remental Cost of Phase I and Phase II RFG . 4-23 Cost-Effectiveness of Federal RFG 4-23 Cost-Effectiveness of California RFG 4-23 Cost-Effectiveness of Federal RFG . Ozone Season Weighted 4-24 Cost-Effectiveness of Catifornia RFG . Ozone Season Weighted 4-24 Parameters Used in I/M Cost Model . 4-26
32、Inspection Costs 4-28 Cost-Effectiveness of Enhanced I/M Programs 4-30 Cost-Effectiveness of Expanded I/M Programs 4-31 Implementation Rates for California IEV Programs . 4-31 Costs for Meeting LEV Standards . 4-32 Average Per-Vehicle Cost for Meeting LEV Standards 4-32 Cost Estimating Procedure 4-3
33、3 Cost-Effectiveness of LEV Program 4-36 Cost-Effectiveness of Tier II Program 4-36 Cost-Effectiveness of Natural Gas Vehicle Program 4-38 Cost-Effectiveness of Scrappage Program 4.39 Cost-Effectiveness of Mobile Source Controls . Baltimore . 4-40 Cost-Effectiveness of Mobile Source Controls . Chica
34、go 4-40 Cost-Effectiveness of Mobile Source Controls . Houston 4-41 Cost-Effectiveness of Mobile Source Controls . Philadelphia . 4-41 Cost-Effectiveness of Mobile Source Controls . Baltimore . 4-42 TCMs Included in the 1990 CAAA 4-43 Potential Effectiveness of TCMs 4-46 Required VOC Reductions and
35、Attainment Deadlines Necessary Reductions from Re-Control Levels . 5-5 5-1 5-3 5-4 5-5 5-6 5-7 5-8 5-9 5-10 5-11 5-12 5-u API PUBL*32b 94 I O732290 0537847 997 I Rate of Progress Plan for Baltimore . 5-12 Rate of Progress Plan for Chicago . 5-14 Rate of Progress Plan for Houston . 5-17 Rate of Progr
36、ess Plan for Philadelphia 5-19 Rate of Progress Plan for D.C. . 5-21 ROP Target and Projected Shortfalls for 1999 and 2010 . 5-22 NQ Control Strategies for Baltimore . 5-29 Nq Control Strategies for Chicago 5-30 NO. Control Strategies for Houston 5-31 NQ Control Strategies for Philadelphia . 5-33 NO
37、. Control Strategies for D.C 5-34 API PUBL*32b 94 0732290 0537848 823 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Under the requirements of Title I of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (Ca), all moderate and above ozone nonattainment areas must reduce their volatile organic compound (VE) emissions by 15 percent by 1996. Depe
38、nding on the severity of the nonattainment status, a city may have to decrease emissions further, by three percent per year, until attainment is demonstrated. Once attainment is achieved, the City must implement a control plan designed to maintain those standards. In addition to the VOC requirements
39、, specific NO, reduction requirements may be specified by EPA and the states in the future, based on the results of air quality modeling studies. These emission reduction targets are known as the Reasonable Further Progress, or RFP, requirements, and they present significant technical and economic c
40、hallenges to state agencies and emission sources. The main purpose of this study is to provide air poilution control planners and other interested parties with a “menu“ of possible control options, using the most up-to-date information and accurate anaiyses, for significant sources of VOCs and NQ. T
41、his menu provides a preliminary demonstration of how cost-effective packages of attainment strategies and control measures can be developed to meet RFP targets and achieve attainment, as well as maintain standards after attainment. State agencies may be able to incorporate portions of this studys fi
42、ndings into their 1994 SIP revisions. Final determination of appropriate strategies should be based on the air quality modeling studies required by the CAAA. One set of control strategies alone cannot be identified that will allow aii nonattainment arcas to meet their RFP targets and achieve attainm
43、ent in the most cost-effective manner. Site-specific variations in source distribution and emissions mean hat different cities must be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. For this reason, API contracted Radian Corporation to evaluate five different cities: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, ES
44、-1 and Washington, D.C. These cities are all severe ozone nonattainment areas (with the exception of Washington, D.C., which is serious), and all must develop a broad range of control measures. Various sections of this report may apply to other cities not included in the analysis. In order to develo
45、p site-specific control packages for VOC and NO, Radian performed the following tasks: e e Identified major source categories from state inventories; Identified feasible control options from literature; e Model emissions reductions for mobile source controls for each site; e Conducted technical and
46、economic assessment of options and determined cost-effectiveness rankings; and e Developed site-specific cost-effective control approaches. This report provides the initial results of Radians study. The body of the report discusses the potential control options in a general manner, while the appendi
47、ces provide a more detailed analysis of costs, effectiveness, and application limitations. FINDINGS OF RFP ANALYSES Based upon Radians analysis, the cities of Chicago and D.C. should be able to meet their 1996 RFP milestones. In addition, Chicago and D.C. can do so in using controls with relatively
48、low cost-effectiveness values (typically $1,000 to $2,000 per ton of VOCs). However, based upon the Dreliminary emissions inventories provided bv the states, the Houston, Baltimore, and Philadelphia areas may not reach their reduction targets, even after applying all available controls, regardless o
49、f cost. These shortfails may be the result of these cities relatively low emissions from mobile sources (a source categoq that experiences large percentage reductions by 1996). The shortfalls may also be the result Es-2 API PUBL*326 94 m 0732270 0537850 481 W of errors in the emissions inventories received from the states. Figure ES-1 provides a summary of the progress made toward the 1996 RFT milestones, based upon the control strategy packages developed by Radian! Radian also estimated the potential NO, reductions avai
