1、 API PUBL*4588L 93 0732290 0533607 T83 Development of Fugitive Emission Factors and Emission Profiles for Petroleum Marketing Terminals Volume II: Appendices Health and Environmental Sciences Department PUBLICATION NUMBER 45881 PREPARED UNDER CONTRACT BY: RADIAN CORPORATION 10389 OLD PLACERVILLE ROA
2、D SACRAMENTO, CA 95827 MARCH 1993 American Petroleum Institute API PUBLXYSBBL 93 m 0732290 0513b08 9LT m FOREWORD API PUBLICATIONS NECESSARILY ADDRESS PROBLEMS OF A GENERAL NATRE. W“ RESPECT TO PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES, LOCAL, STATE, AND FEDERAL LAWS AND REGULATIONS SHOULD BE REVIEWED. API IS NOT UN
3、DERTAKING TO MEET THE DUTIES OF EMPLOYERS, MANUFAC- TURERS, OR SUPPLIERS To WARN AND PROPERLY TRAIN AND EQUIP THEIR EMPLOYEES, AND OTHERS EXPOSED, CONCERNING HEALTH AND SAFETY RISKS AND PRECAUTIONS, NOR UNDERTAKING THEIR OBLIGAIIONS UNDER LOCAL, STATE, OR FEDERAL LAWS. NOTHING CONTAINED IN ANY API P
4、UBLICATION IS TO BE CONSTRUED AS GRANTING ANY RIGHT, BY IMPLICATION OR OTHERWISE, FOR THE MANU- FACTURE, SALE, OR USE OF ANY METHOD, APPARATUS, OR PRODUCT COV- ERED BY LETTERS PATENT, NEITHER SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION BE CONSTRUED AS INSURING AGAINST LIABIL- KY FOR INFRINGEMENT OF
5、 LETIERS PATENT. API PUBL*4588L 93 = 0732290 05L3b09 856 Appendix A: Appendix B: Appendix B. 1 : Appendix B.2: Appendix B.3: Appendix B.4: Appendix C: Appendix C.l: Appendix C.2: Appendix D: Appendix E: LIST OF APPENDICES Statistical Evaluations and Correlation Details Raw Data Used for Statistical
6、Evaluations Default Zero Emissions Data Correlation Equation Emissions Data Pegged Components Emissions Data Screening Value Data By Site Mass Emissions Calculations Comparison of the Composition of Fugitive Emissions to the Composition of the Liquid Streams Raw Data Used to Estimate Mass Emissions
7、From Screening and Bagged Components Detailed Information on Quality Control Results Independent Audit Results API PUBLX1l588L 93 m 0732290 0533630 578 m APPENDIX A STATISTICAL EVALUATIONS AND CORRELATION DETAILS API PUBL*4588L 93 W 0732290 0513611 404 W A.l Least Saiiares Estimate of a Linear Repre
8、ssion The fitting of a line to describe the relationship between two variables (X and Y) via the method of least squares involves estimating a Y-intercept (O0) and a slope (O,). The method of least squares chooses the parameter estimates for Po and Pl, as those values which minimize the sum of squar
9、es of the vertical distances from the data points to the presumed regression line. In addition, these parameters are estimated so that the average residual (ri = Yi - , - PiXi, i= 1, . . . , n) is zero. Let and So that: or Y, = Log, (Leak Rate determined by bagging component i), Xi = Log, (Maxiinum
10、Screening Value for component i). Log, (Leak Rate) = o + , Log, (Screening Value), Yi = Po + BIXi describes iIIe regression line. A-2 API PUBL*45881 93 0732290 0513632 340 Then the least square regression estimators can be given by: and where: n = number of parameters. Once these have been calculate
11、d, then the Mean Squared Error (MSE) can be given by: where: ri = Yi - 8, - - y -xY I JE (Xi - x)2.E (YI - and is bounded: -1 srms 1 . The correlation coefficient squared (rxy2) can be interpreted as the fraction of the total variation which is explained by the least-squares regression line. In othe
12、r words, r, measures how well the least-squares regression line fits the sample data. If the total variation is ail explained by the regression line, i.e., if rxy2 = 1 or rxy = Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.77; Number of Data Pairs = 52; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.52; 95% Confidence Interval f
13、or Intercept (-5.9, -4.5); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.68, 1.08); and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 2.02. e Valves - Light Liquid Service Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (3.74)( 104)(OVA-SV)o.47 Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Einission Rate) =
14、 -4.342 + 0.470 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.47; Number of Data Pairs = 129; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.902; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.0, -3.7); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.31, 0.63); and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 8.218. A- 10 API PUB
15、LJ45881 93 D 0732290 0533620 VI? D Valves - Gas VaDor Service Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (1.68)( 10-5)(OVA-SV)0.6y Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Einission Rate) = -5.35 + 0.693 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.66; Number of
16、 Data Pairs = 99; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.716; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-6.0, -4.7); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.53, 0.85) ; and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 3.766. Pump Seals - Light Liquid Service Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (1.34
17、)( 105)(OVA-SV)“.WYn Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Emission Rate) = -5.34 + 0.898 Log,o(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.81; Number of Data Pairs = 52; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.650; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-6.1, -4.6); 95% Confidence Interval
18、 for Slope = (0.71, 1.1) ; and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 2.932. A- 1 API PUBL*4588L 93 m 0732290 05L3b2L 353 Regression Est iniates for Emission Rates from Refinerv Processes (Radian, 1980 and Radian, 1989) Flanges Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (3.730)( 10-)(OVA-
19、SV)o.x2 Emission Rate = (I .275)( 105)(TLV-SV)o,xx Least-Square Results (in log-log space) using OVA Screening Instrument: Log,(Einission Rate) = -4.73 + 0.818 Log,(OVA Screening Value); 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.43, -4.03); and 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.63, 1.00). Least
20、-Square Results (in log-log space) using TLV Screening Instrument: Log,(Einission Rate) = -5.20 + 0.88 Log,(TLV Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.77; Number of Data Pairs = 52; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.52; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.9, -4.5); 95% Confidence Inter
21、val for Slope = (0.68, 1.08); and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 2.02. Valves - Light Liquid Service Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (8.46)( 10s)(OVA-SV)o.74 Emission Rate = (3.19)( lO-)(TLV - SV)o.80 Least-Square Resiilts (in log-log space) using OVA Screening Instrume
22、nt: LogIo(Emission Rate) = -4.48 + 0.74 Log,(OVA Screening Value); 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-4.88, -4.08); and 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.641, 0.845). A-I2 API PUBL*9588L 33 m 0732230 0513b22 23T m e e Least-Square Results (in log-log space) iising TLV Screening Instrument:
23、 Log,(Einission Rate) = -4.90 + 0.80 Log,(TLV Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.79; Number of Data Pairs = 119; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.60; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.3, -4.5); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.69, 0.91); and Scale Bias Correction Factor =
24、2.53. Valves - Gas Vapor Service Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (2.16)( 10m6)(OVA SV). Emission Rate = (4.81)( lO-)(TLV - -SV)1.23 Least-Square Results (in log-log space) using OVA Screening Instrument: Log,(Emission Rate) = -6.35 + 1.14 Log,(OVA Screening Value); 95%
25、Confidence Interval for Intercept (-7.45, -5.25); and 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.92, 1.37). Least-Square Results (in log-log space) using TLV Screening Instrument: Log,(Emission Rate) = -7.0 + 1.23 Log,(TLV Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.76; Number of Data Pairs = 79;
26、Standard Error of Estimate = 0.78; 95 % Confidence Interval for Intercept (-8.1 , -5.9); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.99, 1.47) ; and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 4.81. PumD sea Is - Light Liauid Service Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (5.022)( lv)(OVA-SV)o-
27、ni Emission Rate = (1.823)( 10J)(TLV-SV)o.830 A-I3 API PUBL*45BBL 93 0732290 0533623 326 Least-Square Results (in log-log space) using OVA Screening Instrument: Log,(Emission Rate) = -3.96 + 0.771 Log,(OVA Screening Value); 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-3.46, -4.46); and 95% Confidence Int
28、erval for Slope = (0.67, 0.87). Least-Square Results (in log-log space) using TLV Screening Instrument: Log,(Emission Rate) = -4.40 + 0.830 Log,(TLV Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.68; Number of Data Pairs = 259; Standard Error of Estimate = 0,760 95% Confidence Interval for Interc
29、ept (-4.9, -3.9); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.72, 0.94) ; and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 4.58. A.9 Remession Estimates for Petroleum MarketinP Terminals 0 Flanges (Connectors) - All Services Equation for predicted inean einission rate is: Emission Rate = (4.652)( lO“)(OVA - SV)o.“6 Le
30、ast-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Einission Rate) = -4.73 + 0,426 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.4 1 ; Number of Data Pairs = 36; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.604; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.48 -3.98); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.097,
31、 0.754); and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 2.50. A-14 API PUBLlr45883 93 W 0732290 0533624 Ob2 W e e Valves - Lipht - Liaiiid Service Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (6.34)( 106)(OVA - SV)0.708 Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,o(Emission Rate) = -5.433 + 0.
32、708 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.845; Number of Data Pairs = 46; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.460; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.81, -5.06); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.57, 0.84); and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 1.72 Loading Arm Valves - All
33、Services Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (8.24)( 104)(OVA-SV)o.gss Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Emission Rate) = -5.469 + 0.955 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.825; Number of Data Pairs = 24; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.601
34、; 95 % Confidence Interval for Intercept (-6.03, -4.91); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.67, 1.24); and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 2.43 A-15 API PUBLr45881 93 m 0732290 O533625 TT m Open-Ended Lines - All Services Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (5.69)( 106)(
35、OVA - SV)“.995 Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Einission Rate) = -5.743 + 0.995 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.859; Number of Data Pairs = 16; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.701; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-6.53, -4.95); 95% Confidence Interval f
36、or Slope = (0.65, 1.34); and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 3.14 Piimp Seals - Light Liquid Service Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (6.567)( lO-)(OVA - SV)0.5)4 Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Emission Rate) = -4.619 + 0.534 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Corr
37、elation Coefficient (r) = 0.757; Number of Data Pairs = 12; Standard Error of Estimate = 0.667; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.43, -3.81); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.209, 0.859) ; and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 2.729. A-16 API PUBLU458L 93 m 0732290 05L3b2b 935 m Valves (L
38、ieht Liaiiid Services) and Connectors (All Services). Co mbined Equation for predicted mean emission rate is: Emission Rate = (1.255)( 105)(OVA-SV)(.635 Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Emission Rate) = -5.22 + 0.635 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.729; Number
39、 of Data Pairs = 82; Standard Error of Estiinate = 0.532; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.56, -4.88); 95% Confidence Interval for Slope = (0.502, 0.768) ; and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 2.083. 1, nd - n-En in All rvi Combined Equation for predicted niean emission rate is: Emission Rate
40、 = (7.663)( 1O6)(0VA - SV)0.9s9 Least-Square Results (in log-log space): Log,(Emission Rate) = -5.55 + 0.959 Log,(OVA Screening Value); Correlation Coefficient (r) = 0.838; Number of Data Pairs = 40; Standard Error of Estiinate = 0.632; 95% Confidence Interval for Intercept (-5.98, -5.12); 95% Confi
41、dence Interval for Slope = (0.755, 1.164) ; and Scale Bias Correction Factor = 2.743. A-17 API PUBL*458BL 93 m 0732290 0513627 871 m A.10 Effects of Load a nd Service on Scree ninp Value Co ncentratiow It was considered desirable to determine whether the service or the load conditions had an effect
42、on the screening value concentrations. Table A-1 presents statistics for the mean screening value concentrations by service (gas vapor, heavy liquid, or light liquid) and load (load or no load). “Load“ is defined as process fluid flowing through the component and “no load“ is defmed as a liquid-fill
43、ed component but with no flow. The mean concentrations and sample sizes by category are also presented for the different component types in Figures A-1 through A-6. Statistical hypothesis tests were performed to determine whether the effects of service and load on screening value concentrations were
44、 statistically significant. An effect is said to be “statistically significant“ if it is too large to be explained by random chance; Le., a statistically significant effect is one that appears to be repeatable on the basis of trends seen in the data. To test the effects of service and load for each
45、component type, the number of screened values within each service and load must be sufficientiy large. As shown in Table A-1 and in Figures A-1 through A-6, most of the screened components were connectors and valves. In addition, there were sufficient numbers of connectors and valves representing ea
46、ch of the service types and load conditions. For the remaining four component types (Le., loading arm valves, open-ended lines, pump Seals, and “other“), there was not a large number of screened values representing each of the service types and load conditions. Therefore, whereas reliable statistica
47、l conclusions about the effects of service and load can be drawn for coectors and valves, results given for the remaining four component types should be regarded with caution due to the small sample sizes. When a response variable (concentration) is computed as a function of two possible explanatory
48、 variables (load and service), a technique called “analysis of variance“ is often used to determine the significance or lack of significance of the effects. Conventional A-18 API PUBL*4588L 93 = 0732290 05L3628 708 eo acvi 2- A-19 API PUBL*45BB3 93 0732290 0533629 644 D - . . A-20 API PUBL*Li5881 93
49、 = 0732290 0533630 3bh m N, , A-2 1 API PUBLX45881 93 0732290 0513b3L 2T2 D A-22 API PUBLXLiSBBL 93 0732290 0533632 139 A-23 API PUBLt4588L 93 = 0732290 0.533633 075 Tii; 4 “A Il II Il II 1 -e I A-24 API PUBLX45L 93 m 0732290 0513b34 TO1 . - A-25 API PUBL*Lt5883 93 0732290 O533635 948 analysis of variance could be used to determine whether the mean concentration varies significantly as a function of load or service. In Figure A-1, for example, it is seen that concentration is larger for the gas service with no load
