1、t r a n s p o r t a t i o nThe Bottom Line Report2009 TRANSPORTATIONAre We There Yet? bottom lineAASHTOs Authorization Recommendations 2 at a glance An annual investment of $166 billion for highways and bridges, between 2010 and 2015, is necessary to improve the condition and performance of the syst
2、em, given an expected rate of travel growth of 1.4 percent per year. If travel growth is held to about 1.0 percent a year, which would help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, then needed investment to improve the highway system would come to $132 billion per year. In 2006, highway capital investment f
3、rom all levels of government totaled $78.7 billion, according to FHWA. An annual investment of $46 billion for public transportation is necessary to improve system performance and condition, given an expected 2.4 percent annual growth in ridership. If transit ridership growth rises to 3.5 percent, t
4、he level that would double ridership in 20 years which would also be helpful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, investment in public transportation would have to increase to $59 billion per year. In 2006, transit capital investment from all levels of government totaled $13.3 billion, according to
5、 APTA. The model-based investment estimates do not currently address all needs. Additional annual highway requirements total over $13 billion, including: More than $7 bil- lion in environmental mitigation costs; $2.6 billion in highway operations costs; $1.2 billion in safety program costs; and $1.6
6、 billion in highway security costs. Between 1995 and 2006, highway travel, measured in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), in- creased from 2.4 trillion to 3 trillion. By late 2008, because of high fuel prices and the economic downturn, VMT had declined to 2.9 trillion. In 2006, the value of freight trans
7、ported in America was $15 trillion. Freight volumes are expected to grow by 80 percent by 2035. 2009 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.The BOTTOM LINE Report at a glance In 2006, annual passeng
8、er miles traveled on Americas public transportation system reached 52.15 billion. Between 1995 and 2007, transit ridership increased from 7.8 billion to 10.3 billion trips. Between 1980 and 2005, international container traffic through United States ports grew six-fold. In 2006, 42 million container
9、s were shipped. By 2020, the number of con- tainers moving through our ports could reach over 100 million. The travel and tourism industry generated $700 billion in 2006. It is the number one industry in three states, and is in the top ten in all but two states. 13 million people, about 10 percent o
10、f the nations work force, are employed in transportation jobs. . Each billion dollars of federal highway construction investment supports nearly 35,000 jobs. Since 1950, when our nation had 150 million people, our population has doubled to 305 million and our road system has grown by 20 percent from
11、 3.3 million miles to 4 million miles. Over the next 50 years our population is expected to grow by another 150 million. The number of motor vehicles in the United States has increased from around 65 million in the mid-1950s to more than 240 million today. Those vehicles traveled about 500 bil- lion
12、 miles per year in 1950 and now travel approximately 3 trillion miles. While overall population grew by 5 percent from the year 2000 to 2005, the population over 55 grew by 13 percent to 67 million. Over 41,000 people died on the nations highways in 2007. 2009 by the American Association of State Hi
13、ghway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law. 2009 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.The BOTTOM LINE Report AckNOWLEdgEMENTS This report
14、 is the result of the efforts of many people. The Bottom Line Task Force, chaired by Dennis Slimmer of the Kansas Department of Transportation, provided invaluable oversight on behalf of the AASHTO Board of Directors. Alan E. Pisarski and Arlee Reno of Cambridge Systematics served as the principle r
15、esearch team for the report. Susan Binder, Ross Crichton, and their colleagues at the Federal Highway Administration provided technical advice on the nature of the modeling, the interpretation of results, and alternative scenarios. Two research projects conducted under the auspices of the National C
16、ooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) and Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) of the Transportation Re- search Board of the National Academies provided background supporting the analyses and recom- mendations presented in this report. AASHTO wishes to thank the project panel members, s
17、taff, and research teams that guided and performed the research: NCHRP 2024(58)G and TCRP H33B. AASHTO also wishes to express its profound appreciation to all who devoted long hours and shared their special knowledge to produce the Bottom Line Report. We believe it will serve as a valuable research
18、tool as the nation addresses its transportation needs. NcHRP Project 20-24(4)g AASHTO Bottom Line Report Support Dennis Slimmer, Chair Kansas Department of Transportation Members Dennis Keck, P .E., P .P . Vice President, Director of Highway Planning Jacobs Edwards Sustaining the solvency to the Fed
19、eral Highway Trust Fund; Redressing dramatically higher costs of highway and transit construction; Addressing the transportation impacts on global climate change; Reconstruction needs of an aging transportation system; Reducing congestion on highways; Increasing capacity for highways and public tran
20、sportation; and Maintaining international competitiveness. This comprehensive assessment of the nations surface transportation needs provides a definitive base of information to assist in making critical decisions. It is based upon the forecasting models used by the Federal Highway Administration, a
21、nd supplemented with additional research to incorporate areas not fully addressed by those models. The result is the most comprehensive analysis of the nations transportation investment needs now possible. John Horsley Executive Director American Association of State Highway and Transportation Offic
22、ials The BOTTOM LINE Report 9 2009 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.AASHTOs Authorization Recommendations 10 2009 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All
23、 rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.The BOTTOM LINE Report 11 kEY FINdINgS Transportation in America has come to a breaking point. Drivers experience the frustration of congestion and lost hours stuck in traffic. Shippers add extra time to delivery schedules, and then worr
24、y if goods will arrive “just in time.” Families bear untold grief at the loss of a son or daughter in a tragic accident. Critics wonder why cant this be fixed. The answer is, it can. By investing in Americas transportation system, the nation will not only solve the deficiencies that plague us, but a
25、lso lay a sound foundation for a revitalized economy equipped to meet a growing and changing society. Highway Investment Requirements The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) reports that since the mid 1990s, highway travel in the nation has grown just under 12 percent. After growing from 2.4 trill
26、ion vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in 1995 to over 3 trillion VMT in 2007, because of record high fuel prices and the decline of the economy VMT declined to 2.9 trillion by late 2008. Future highway travel demand will depend on many factors. The U.S. population is expected to grow from 305 million in
27、2005 to over 420 million by 2050. Freight shipped by truck is expected to nearly double in the next 20 years. Passen- ger vehicle demand is expected to parallel population growth, which is increasing around one percent per year. Truck freight demand is expected to parallel economic growth, which is
28、expected to increase between two and three percent per year. While VMT grew at over two percent annually during the last two decades, over the next twenty years it is expected to grow between 1.0 percent to 1.4 percent per year as many of the factors that determine VMT stabilize. To estimate future
29、highway and bridge investment needs, this report projects two scenarios based upon anticipated growth in travel, a 1.4 percent growth rate , and a policy-based 1.0 percent annual growth rate which would be ex- pected to yield significant progress in reducing transportations share of greenhouse gas e
30、missions. T wo Highway Investment Scenarios Growth Rate of VMT per Year Cost to Improve Highways (2006 Dollars) 1 .4 P ercent Annual growth $1 billion 1 .0 Percent Annual growth $12 billion At a 1.4 percent growth rate in VMT, annual average investment requirements for highways and bridges total $16
31、6 billion. If travel growth is held to a 1.0 percent annual VMT growth rate, the investment requirements come to $132 billion. Both these levels are significantly higher than the $78 billion invested in highway capital improve- ments by all levels of government in 2006. If highway investment were in
32、creased to the levels indicated in either of the “cost to improve” scenarios, drivers would see smoother roads, improved highway speeds, a reduction in delays, fewer congested miles, and reduced cost. 2009 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.
