1、Unlocking GridlockPART1OF A SERIESAMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF STATE HIGHWAY AND TRANSPORTATION OFFICIALSTransportation Reboot:Restarting Americas Most Essential Operating SystemThe Case for Capacity: To Unlock Gridlock, Generate Jobs, Deliver Freight, and Connect CommunitiesAPRIL 2010http:/ExpandingCapa
2、city.transportation.orgAcknowledgementsMuch of the material cited in this report, including the estimates of capaci-ty increases required, is drawn from research published in May 2007 by the Transportation Research Boards National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). The report, Future Opti
3、ons for the Interstate and Defense Highway System can be accessed at http:/onlinepubs.trb.org/online-pubs/trbnet/acl/NCHRP_20-24_52Task10_NCHRPFinal.pdf.The objective of the research project was to develop a potential vision for the future of the U.S. Interstate Highway System. The report was prepar
4、ed by a study team led by David Gehr and Steve Lockwood of PB Consult, Gary Mar-ing of Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Kevin E. Heanue and Alan E. Pisarski.The research was sponsored by AASHTO and the Federal Highway Administration, and was guided by a panel chaired by Harold E. Linnen-kohl, Georgia DO
5、T (retired); and included Allen D. Biehler, P.E., Secretary, Pennsylvania DOT; John F. Conrad, P.E., Washington State DOT; Dr. David J. Forkenbrock, University of Iowa; Dr. Clay McShane, Northeastern Univer-sity; Debra L. Miller, Secretary, Kansas DOT; Thomas E. Norton, Colorado DOT (formerly); Kenn
6、eth Orski, Urban Mobility Corporation; Dr. Bruce E. Seely, Michigan Technological University; MG David A. Sprynczynatyk, North Dakota Army National Guard; and LTG Kenneth R. Wykle, National Defense Transportation Association. The analysis period considered in the Future Options Report was the 30 yea
7、rs from 2005 to 2035. The National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission, in its 2008 report, Transportation for Tomorrow, looked at what the countrys surface transportation needs would be by 2050. In order for this report to be comparable to that of the National Commissions, AA
8、SHTO based its findings on the research conducted by PB, Cambridge Systematics, Pisarski and Heanue, but presented its recommendations using the 2050 time horizon. We have also updated the travel demand forecasts us-ing more recent data from AASHTOs 2009 Bottom Line Report.Additional information in
9、the report was gleaned from Commuting in America III, authored by Alan E. Pisarski under a joint project of the NCHRP and the Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) and published in October 2006. Christine Becker also contributed to the report. Graphic Design/Layout by Mario Olivero for AASHTO
10、2010 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.pageiForewordIn Utahwhen the new 14-mile Legacy Parkway north of Salt Lake City opened in late 2008, motorists saw their commute drop from an average of 44
11、 minutes to 14 minutes.In Maryland and Virginiaexpansion of the Woodrow Wilson Bridge from 6 to 12 lanes to relieve a major Interstate system bottleneck is saving drivers and truckers 40 minutes a day.Expanding the ability of the transportation system to meet the needs of the travel-ing public is cr
12、itical to the health of our economy and the quality of life of our citizens. Meeting future needs will require a balanced approach, which preserves what has been built to date, improves system performance, and adds substantial capacity in highways, transit, freight rail and intercity passenger rail.
13、Some advocacy groups, however, want to take the country down a different path. They want to limit new highway capacity, and shift resources away from highways to transit and intercity passenger rail. And they want to see this approach imposed on states from the national level.We disagree.Does AASHTO
14、 support investing more in transit? Absolutely. States today actually invest more in transit than does the federal government. In 2007, states spent $13.3 billion on transit, compared to federal funding of $10.7 billion. AASHTO supports doubling of transit ridership by 2030 and increasing federal tr
15、ansit funding by 89 percent.Does AASHTO support investing more in intercity passenger rail? Of course. State departments of transportation have called for investing $50 billion during the next six years to expand intercity passenger rail service.But transit and intercity passenger rail investments a
16、lone cannot begin to meet the nations transportation needs. A more balanced approach is needed that recognizes how Americans choose to travel. Today 95 percent of passenger travel in America is made by car, motorcycle and truck, and 93 percent of freight by value moves on our highways. Expanding hig
17、hway capacity is not the only thing that will be required to meet future mobility needs, but it will be a principal part of what will be required.John Horsley Executive DirectorExpanding highway capacity is not the only thing that will be required to meet future mobility needs, but it will be a prin
18、cipal part of what will be required. 2010 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.pageiiUnlocking Gridlock: Key FindingsPopulation increases are putting strains on existing transportation networks, an
19、d are increasing the need for new capacity.I Since 1956 when the Interstate Highway Act was enacted, the U.S. population has grown by 140 million. Unlike countries in Europe and Asia whose populations are expected to decline, the U.S. is growing.I In 10 years the U.S. population will grow by 27 mill
20、ion people, more than the number of people who currently live in Texas.I Americas population is forecast to increase from 308 million today to more than 420 million by 2050.I Close to 80 percent of Americas growth and economic development has concentrated in met-ropolitan areas. Between 1950 and 200
21、0, the number of people living in metropolitan regions increased from 85 million to 225 million. By 2050 that number is expected to reach nearly 335 million.Significant investment is needed to keep America moving.I Travel on the U.S. highway system has increased five-fold over the past 60 years from
22、 600 billion miles driven to almost three trillion in 2009. I Annual travel is expected to climb to nearly 4.5 trillion miles by 2050, even with aggressive strat-egies to cut the rate of growth to only one percent per year.I Drivers with a 30-minute commute lose 22 hours (nearly three full work days
23、) annually sitting in traffic.I The U.S. Department of Transportations 2008 Conditions and Performance report , released in early 2010, projects an annual highway investment need of about $175 billion. Of that amount, $85 billion is needed for system rehabilitation, $71 billion is needed for system
24、expansion and $18 billion is needed for system enhancements such as safety improvements.I If most or all of our capital investments were made in system rehabilitation and little to none in adding needed capacity, the condition of the nations roads and bridges would improve, but traffic would grind t
25、o a halt.The Interstate Highway System is the backbone of the nations transportation network and must continue to play a strategic role.I Representing only one percent of total highway miles, todays Interstates carry 24 percent of all traffic and 41 percent of combination-vehicle truck traffic. “Tod
26、ay, drivers with a 30 minute commute still lose 22 hours (nearly three full work days) annually sitting in traffic. As the economy rebounds, congestion levels will also rebound, unless the nation builds the capacity needed.” 2010 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Offici
27、als.All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.pageiiiI Between 1980 and 2006, traffic on the Interstate System increased by 150 percent, while Inter-state capacity increased by only 15 percent.I Because capacity has not kept pace with travel demand over the past four decades,
28、 the amount of traffic experiencing congested conditions at peak hours in the nations most urban areas on the Interstate System doubled from 32 percent to over 67 percent. I In many metro areas, the bulk of traffic is carried on urban Interstates and state arterials, rather than on city and county a
29、rterials or local streets. For example, in the Austin, Texas metro area, only seven percent of the highway network is made up of state arterials and Interstates, but those roads carry 80 percent of the traffic.Meeting metropolitan mobility needs will require a balanced approach that preserves what h
30、as been built to date, improves system performance, and adds substantial capacity in highways, transit, freight rail, and intercity pas-senger rail.I Highways play a dominant role in providing mobility for the American public, carrying 95 percent of passenger trips and 93 percent of freight by value
31、. Expanding highway capacity is not the only thing that will be required to meet future mobility needs, but it will be a principal part of what is needed.U.S. DOTs 2008 Condi-tions and Performance Report, published in 2010, found that to meet highway future needs over the next 20 years, 48.7 percent
32、 of capital investment should go into system reha-bilitation and 41 percent should go to system expansion. 2010 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.pageivI To reduce current congestion and meet fu
33、ture needs, the AASHTO 2007 Future Options for Inter-state Highways study found that the equivalent of 30,000 additional lane-miles should be added to the existing 85,000 lane-miles of urban Interstate. Additionally, another 40,000 lane-miles need to be added to the existing urban segments of the Na
34、tional Highway System. I AASHTO has also called for doubling transit ridership by 2030, and increasing federal transit assistance by 89 percent. AASHTO has also called for investing $50 billion in high speed and intercity passenger rail during the next six years. I Massive investments in transit cap
35、acity and a quadrupling of transit ridership cannot substitute for additional increases in Interstate highway capacity needed to accommodate longer-distance passenger and freight movements and the through-trips that continue to grow.I AASHTO has called on Congress to provide $375 billion over the ne
36、xt six years in federal high-way assistance, 90 percent distributed by formula to the states. A significant portion of these funds should be provided to fund the Interstate Highway capacity needed. These dollars should be systematically programmed by states and their MPOs to meet community needs, es
37、pecially the needs for increasing metropolitan mobility and reducing congestion.AASHTOs four-pronged approach to restarting Americas most essential oper-ating systemits transportation network:I Preserve and modernize the system. I Improve system performance.I Shift trips to other options, such as in
38、tercity passenger rail, transit, bicycles or walking; and shift freight from trucks to rail.I Add the highway capacity needed to sustain Americas future.Key Examples of Capacity Needs Across America:Find Your State at http:/ExpandingCapacity.transportation.orgWhether its a traffic-choked interchange
39、 or a out-dated bridge inadequate to accommodate todays traffic, states have a long and urgent list of capacity improvement projects. In response to an AASHTO survey, state departments of transportation have identified some of their high priority needs, which are listed in Appendix A. Full details o
40、n these projects, and many more, are available at http:/Expand-ingCapacity.transportation.org.“The results of inaction are clear. Unless the nation creates adequate highway, transit, and railroad capacity, the nations economy could slow to a standstill. 2010 by the American Association of State High
41、way and Transportation Officials.All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.pagevLike an overloaded computer, decades of underinvestment have frozen the advancement of our nations transportation network at a time when our growing population needs jobs and our economy needs a c
42、ompetitive edge. Three key challenges loom aheadeasing urban congestion; supporting mounting freight demands; and connecting rural economies to the national network. In each case, an essential solution is en-abling our transportation system to grow, where ever and however it is needed.In this first
43、of a three-part report, Transportation Reboot describes what is changing in America and why those changes demand new transportation capacity. Future segments address the capacity increases required to meet the burgeoning freight demand, and to access the economic might of rural America.Inside:1. Sys
44、tem OverloadI PopulationI Travel GrowthI Inadequate investmentI Paying the Price of Congestion2. It Is Your Fathers Interstate! But It Doesnt Have to BeI Aging ArteriesI Whats So Great about an Interstate?I Interstate Expansion NeedsTRANSPORTATION REBOOTRestarting Americas Most Essential Operating S
45、ystem3. The Opportunities of ExpansionI Making the System Swifter, Safer, Smarter, SustainableI Preservation Includes Performance4. Urban AnswersI A Four-Point Plan for Urban MobilityI Investments in Transit, Intercity RailI Adding Highway Capacity“Between 1980 and 2006, traffic on the Interstate Sy
46、stem in-creased by 150 percent, while Interstate capac-ity increased by only 15 percent.” 2010 by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.All rights reserved. Duplication is a violation of applicable law.pagevipage1Every 14 seconds another person is added to Americas p
47、opulation. A new baby arrives every eight seconds. A new immigrant arrives every 37 seconds. Between 2009 and 2010, 2.9 million people were born or arrived in the U.S., bringing our total to 308.4 million. America is a growing nation, adding the equivalent of the population of Canada every ten years
48、. Similarly, travel on the U.S. highway system has increasedfive-fold during the past 50 years from 600 billion miles driven (or vehicle miles traveled, often referred to as VMT) in 1956 to 2.9 trillion in 2009. As the population grows, and the economy expands, travel will still climb to nearly 4.5
49、trillion miles per year by 2050, even with aggressive strategies to slow the rate of growth to only one percent per year.By the year 2050:I U.S. population will increase from 308 million to 420 million.I The number of people living in metropolitan areas will approach 335 million100 mil-lion more than today.I The amount of freight tonnage moved in the United States will at least doublef rom 15 billion tons of goods transported per year to more than 30 billion tons.I Annual travel on highways will grow from 2.9 trillion miles in 2009 to 4.5 trillion i
