1、 FEBRUARY 2016 Volume 40 No. 2 SUMMARY Total petroleum deliveries in February moved up by 2.0 percent from February 2015 to average 19.8 million barrels per day. These were the highest February deliveries in eight years, since 2008. Compared with January, total domestic petroleum deliveries, a measu
2、re of U.S. petroleum demand, also increased by 2.0 percent. For year to date, total domestic petroleum deliveries moved up by 1.4 percent compared to the same period last year. The overall economy in the U.S. showed gains again for the second time in the year, adding 242,000 jobs according to the Bu
3、reau of Labor and Statistics (BLS). The U.S. unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9 percent in February. Deliveries of gasoline, distillate fuel, kerosene-jet fuel, and all other oils showed month-over-month increases. However, deliveries of residual fuel showed a decline of 36.3 percent from Januar
4、y. In February, gasoline deliveries, a measure of consumer gasoline demand, were up from the prior month, the prior year, and the prior year to date. Total motor gasoline deliver-ies moved up by 5.2 percent from February 2015, and were up by 3.0 percent from January to average 9.1 million barrels pe
5、r day. These were the highest deliveries for the month ever recorded. For year to date, gasoline deliveries increased by 3.2 percent compared with year to date of 2015. February distillate deliveries were down from the prior year, and the prior year to date, but were up from the prior month. Distil-
6、late deliveries increased by 3.9 percent compared with Janu-ary, but were 17.0 percent lower than February 2015 to aver-age at nearly 3.8 million barrels per day. These were the low-est February deliveries in 14 years, since 2002. For year to date, distillate deliveries were also down by 15.7 percen
7、t compared with year to date 2015. The decrease in distillate deliveries was driven by decreases in all three sub-categories. Deliveries of ultra-low sulfur distillate (ULSD), low sulfur distillate (LSD), and high sulfur distillate fuel oil deliveries (HSD) fell from the prior year by 15.9 percent,
8、17.2 percent, and 13.2 percent respectively. Similarly, ULSD, LSD, and HSD fell from year to date values by 15.3 percent, 15.7 per-cent and 14.7 percent respectively. According to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Busi-ness from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Sur-vey, economic activi
9、ty in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fifth consecutive month , while the overall economy grew for the 81stconsecutive month. The chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee stated that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was registered at 49.5 percent, 1.3 perce
10、ntage points above the January reading of 48.2 percent. According to the March Press Release ISM re-port, “February saw a more positive view of demand than in Jan-uary, as 12 of our 18 industries report an increase in new orders, while four industries report a decrease in new or-ders.” Crude oil pro
11、duction decreased 1.2 percent from January, and was down by 3.6 percent from February 2015 to average 9.1 million barrels per day in February. This was the fifth consecutive monthly declines seen and was the lowest output level in 16 months, since September 2014. For year to date, crude production w
12、as also down by 2.4 percent compared with year to date 2015. Meanwhile, NGL production was up from the prior month, prior year, and the prior year to date. NGL production in February averaged 3.4 million barrels per day, up by 0.3 percent from last month and was 10.1 percent higher than last year. T
13、his was the highest February output level on record. For year to date, NGL production was up 12.2 percent compared to the same period last year. According to the latest reports from Baker-Hughes, Inc., the average U.S. rig count for February 2016 was 532, down 124 from the 656 counted in January 201
14、6, and down 816 from the 1,348 counted in February 2015. Last months count was the lowest in over 16 years, since May 1999. U.S. total petroleum imports in February averaged nearly 9.9 million barrels per day, down 0.2 percent from the prior month but were up by 6.7 percent from the prior year. Thes
15、e were the second highest total petroleum imports for any month since September 2013. For year to date, total petrole-um imports were also up by 6.0 percent compared with year to date 2015. Crude oil imports also decreased 1.5 percent from January 2016 to 7.6 million barrels per day in February. Com
16、pared with February 2015, crude oil imports were 6.9 percent higher, and were the highest February imports since 2012. For year to date, crude imports were also up by 7.5 per-cent compared with year to date 2015. In February, gasoline production averaged nearly 9.9 mil-lion barrels per day, up 3.2 p
17、ercent from the prior year, and up 4.0 percent from the prior month. The February 2016 gas-oline output was a record high for the month. For year to date, gasoline production increased by 1.6 percent compared to the same period last year and was the highest year to date on record. On the other hand,
18、 distillate fuel production de-clined by 3.3 percent from February 2015. Compared to the month prior, distillate production also fell by 0.2 percent. For year to date, distillate production decreased by 4.8 percent compared to the same period last year. Refinery capacity uti-lization rate averaged 8
19、7.7 percent in February, up 0.1 per-centage points from the prior year, but was down by 1.6 per-centage points from the prior month. APIs latest refinery operable capacity was 18.174 million barrels per day. Refinery gross inputs moved up by 1.7 percent from Febru-ary 2015 to reach a new high for th
20、e month, averaging 15.9 million barrels per day in February. Compared to January 2016, refinery gross inputs were down 259 thousand barrels per day or 1.6 percent. Production of all four major productsgasoline, distillate, jet fuel and residual fuels was higher than demand for those products, so ref
21、ined products were Published March 17, 2016 2 exported. Exports of crude oil and refined petroleum products increased 6.0 percent in February 2016, compared to Febru-ary 2015, to average just below 5.0 million barrels per day. This was the highest February export level ever, and was 376 thousand bar
22、rels below January 2016s record level of 4.6 mil-lion barrels per day. Compared to year to date 2015, refined product exports were up 3.4 percent. Crude oil stocks ended in February at 519.6 million barrelsthe highest February inventory level in 86 years, since 1930. Crude stocks were up 3.6 percent
23、 from the prior month, and up by 16.0 percent from the prior year. Stocks of motor gaso-line ended in February at 252.4 million barrels, down 0.1 per-cent but up 4.9 percent from the prior month and from prior year, respectively. Distillate fuel oil stocks were up 0.8 per-cent from the prior month,
24、and up by 32.2 percent from the same period last year to end at 162.8 million barrelsthe highest February inventory level in 35 years. Jet fuel stocks were up from the prior month by 1.9 percent, and up by 10.2 from the prior year to end at 42.5 million barrels. Stocks of “other oils” were down from
25、 month ago and year ago lev-els. Total inventories of all oils were down 2.8 percent from month ago levels, but were up by 11.1 percent from year ago levels. In February, gasoline deliver-ies, a measure of consumer gasoline demand were up from the prior month, the prior year, and the prior year to d
26、ate. Total motor gasoline deliveries, moved up 5.2 percent from February 2015, to aver-age 9.1 million barrels per daythe highest February demand ever recorded. Compared with January 2016, total motor gas-oline deliveries increased by 3.0 percent. For year to date, gasoline deliveries increased by 3
27、.2 percent compared with year to date of 2015. Conventional gasoline deliveries in-creased by 6.6 percent from February 2015, to average 6.2 million barrels per day. Reformulated-type gasoline deliveries also increased from the prior year, rising by 2.4 percent to average 2.9 million barrels per day
28、. Compared with January 2016, conventional gasoline deliveries rose by 2.6 percent while reformulated gasoline deliveries rose by 3.7 percent. Compared with year to date 2015, conventional gasoline deliv-eries and reformulated-type gasoline deliveries were both up 4.1 percent and 1.4 percent, respec
29、tively. For the first time since February 2009, the average regular-grade gasoline price fell below $2.0 to average $1.872 per gal-lon in February, according to the latest EIA price data. This was down by 18.5 cents from the prior month and 42.9 cents from the prior year. This February price was als
30、o the lowest since January 2009. Crude oil prices in February averaged $0.722 per gallon ($30.32 per barrel), down 3.2 cents from the prior months price of $0.754 per gallon ($31.68 per barrel), and were down 48.2 cents from February 2015s price of $1.204 per gallon ($50.58 per barrel). Februarys cr
31、ude price was the lowest price for any month since September 2003. PRODUCT DELIVERIES Gasoline DELIVERIES AT RECORD HIGH. API ESTIMATES FEBRUARY YEAR TO DATE Million B/D Percent Change Million B/D Percent Change Total domestic deliveries 19.8 2.0 19.6 1.4 Crude production 9.1 (3.6) 9.2 (2.4) Total i
32、mports 9.9 6.7 9.9 6.0 Stocks (million bbl) 1,275.9 11.1 n/a n/a 3 In February 2016, distillate deliveries averaged 3.8 mil-lion barrels per day, decreased by 17.0 percent compared with February 2015. These were the lowest February deliveries in 14 years, since 2002. Compared to the prior month, Feb
33、ruary distillate deliveries moved up 3.9 percent. For year to date, distillate deliveries decreased 15.7 percent compared to year to date 2015. The decrease in distillate deliveries was driven equally by declines in low sulfur distillate (LSD) and ultra-low sulfur distillate (ULSD), and high sulfur
34、distillate (HSD) deliveries, which fell by 15.9 percent, 17.2 percent and 13.2 percent respectively, for the same period from February 2015 to February 2016. Production of distillate also declined from year ago levels, falling by 3.3 percent. According to the latest EIA price data, ULSD prices de-cr
35、eased by 14.5 cents from last months price of $2.143 per gallon to the lowest price ever recorded at $1.998 per gallon. This was 86.0 cents below the February 2015 price of $2.858 per gallon. According to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Busi-ness from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
36、 Survey, economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fifth consecutive month, while overall econo-my grew for the 81stconsecutive month. The chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee stated that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was registered at 49.
37、5 per-cent, 1.3 percentage points above the January reading of 48.2 percent. According to the March Press Release ISM report, February saw “a more positive view of demand than in Janu-ary, as 12 of our 18 industries report an increase in new or-ders, while four industries report a decrease in new or
38、ders.” Deliveries of kerosine-jet fuel in February increased by 0.7 percent from Janu-ary, and increased by 6.1 percent from February 2015 to aver-age 1.5 million barrels per day. These were the highest deliv-eries for the month in eight years, since 2008. For year to date, deliveries were up by 8.8
39、 percent compared with year to date 2015. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) report-ed total revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) in January increased by 7.1 percent compared to January 2015. The IATAs Director General and CEO stated in the IATAs March 8, 2016 Press Release “that Janu
40、ary maintained the strong traffic growth trend seen in 2015, showing the resilience of demand for connectivity despite recent turmoil in equity mar-kets. The record load factor is a result of strong de-mand for our product and airlines making the most productive use of their assets. Underlying condi
41、tions point to another strong year for passenger traffic, with the latest decline in oil prices likely providing additional stimulus for air travel growth “ In February, deliveries of residual fuel oil increased by 4.1 percent compared to the prior year to average 205 thousand barrels per day. Resid
42、ual fuel oil deliveries were down by 36.3 percent compared to the prior months demand of 322 thousand barrels per day, and were the lowest deliveries since June 2015. For year to date, deliveries were up 12.3 percent compared with year to date 2015.Residual fuel oil is used for the production of ele
43、ctric power, space heating, vessel bunkering, and other industrial purposes. “Other Oils” includes all prod-ucts other than gasoline, dis-tillate fuel, jet fuel, and resid-ual fuel oil. These major refined products have gained a larger share of overall domestic product deliveries over the last sev-e
44、ral years. “Other Oils” including liquid petrochemical feed-stock, naphtha, gasoil, and propane were nearly 26.2 percent of the total deliveries. Deliveries of “other oils” for February showed an increase of 15.0 percent over year-ago levels and were higher than January 2016 deliveries by 2.4 percen
45、t. Crude oil production de-creased 1.2 percent from January, and was down by 3.6 percent from February 2015 to average 9.1 million barrels per day in February. This was the fifth consecutive monthly declines seen and was the lowest output level in 16 months, since September 2014. For year to date, c
46、rude production was also down by 2.4 percent compared with year to date 2015. Texas saw a decline in pro-duction to average just below 3.4 million barrels per day in February. This was 2.7 percent below the February 2015 out-put. North Dakota also saw a monthly decline in crude oil production to ave
47、rage 1.1 million barrels per day, down 0.9 percent from Januarys revised output, and was 3.4 percent lower compared to the same period last year. Production of Kerosine Fuel Oil HIGHEST DELIVERIES SINCE 2008. Residual Fuel Oil DELIVERIES UP IN FEB-RUARY. Other Oils DELIVERIES STRONG IN FEBRUARY. Dis
48、tillate Fuel Oil DELIVERIES DOWN. SUPPLY Production CRUDE PRODUCTION DOWN FROM PRIOR YEAR. 4 crude oil in the Lower 48 states in February was at its lowest level since September 2014 at nearly 8.6 million barrels per day. This was down 1.0 percent from January 2016 and was 4.5 percent lower than Feb
49、ruary 2015. Meanwhile, the Bakken and the Eagle Ford posted oil production declines last month, averaging 1.1 million barrels per day and 1.3 million barrels per day, respectively. The Permian region continued to increase production at just over 2.0 million barrels per day. Natural gas liquids (NGL) production, a co-product of natu-ral gas production, was up from the prior month, prior year, and the prior year to date. NGL production in February aver-aged 3.4 million barrels per day, up by 0.3 percent from last month and was 10.1 percent higher than last
