1、Edited by Jinsong Huang, Ph.D. Gordon A. Fenton, Ph.D., P .Eng. Limin Zhang, Ph.D. D. V. Griffiths, Ph.D., P .E., D.GE Geo-Risk 2017 Impact of Spatial Variability, Probabilistic Site Characterization, and Geohazards Selected Papers from the Proceedings of Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 284GEOTECHNICAL SPECIAL PU
2、BLICATION NO. 284 GEO-RISK 2017 IMPACT OF SPATIAL VARIABILITY, PROBABILISTIC SITE CHARACTERIZATION, AND GEOHAZARDS SELECTED PAPERS FROM SESSIONS OF GEO-RISK 2017 June 47, 2017 Denver, Colorado SPONSORED BY Geo-Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers EDITED BY Jinsong Huang, Ph.D. Gordon
3、 A. Fenton, Ph.D., P.Eng. Limin Zhang, Ph.D. D. V. Griffiths, Ph.D., P.E., D.GE Published by the American Society of Civil Engineers Published by American Society of Civil Engineers 1801 Alexander Bell Drive Reston, Virginia, 20191-4382 www.asce.org/publications | ascelibrary.org Any statements expr
4、essed in these materials are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the views of ASCE, which takes no responsibility for any statement made herein. No reference made in this publication to any specific method, product, process, or service constitutes or implies an endorseme
5、nt, recommendation, or warranty thereof by ASCE. The materials are for general information only and do not represent a standard of ASCE, nor are they intended as a reference in purchase specifications, contracts, regulations, statutes, or any other legal document. ASCE makes no representation or war
6、ranty of any kind, whether express or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or utility of any information, apparatus, product, or process discussed in this publication, and assumes no liability therefor. The information contained in these materials should not be used without f
7、irst securing competent advice with respect to its suitability for any general or specific application. Anyone utilizing such information assumes all liability arising from such use, including but not limited to infringement of any patent or patents. ASCE and American Society of Civil EngineersRegis
8、tered in U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. Photocopies and permissions. Permission to photocopy or reproduce material from ASCE publications can be requested by sending an e-mail to permissionsasce.org or by locating a title in ASCEs Civil Engineering Database (http:/cedb.asce.org) or ASCE Library (
9、http:/ascelibrary.org) and using the “Permissions” link. Errata: Errata, if any, can be found at https:/doi.org/10.1061/9780784480717 Copyright 2017 by the American Society of Civil Engineers. All Rights Reserved. ISBN 978-0-7844-8071-7 (PDF) Manufactured in the United States of America. Preface Int
10、erest and use of probabilistic methods and risk assessment tools in geotechnical engineering has grown rapidly in recent years. The natural variability of soil and rock properties, combined with a frequent lack of high quality site data, makes a probabilistic approach to geotechnical design a logica
11、l and scientific way of managing both technical and economic risk. The burgeoning field of geotechnical risk assessment is evidenced by numerous publications, textbooks, dedicated journals and sessions at general geotechnical conferences. Risk assessments are increasingly becoming a requirement in m
12、any large engineering construction projects. Probabilistic methods are also recognized in design codes as a way of delivering reasonable load and resistance factors (LRFD) to target allowable risk levels in geotechnical design. This Geotechnical Special Publication (GSP), coming out of the Geo-Risk
13、2017 specialty conference held in Denver, Colorado from June 4-7, 2017, presents contributions in sessions: 1) Impact of Spatial Variability and Site Characterization, and 2) Geohazards. These contributions to the use of geostatistics and probabilistic methods to model the spatial variability of the
14、 ground, to characterize geotechnical sites and to assess the risk of geohazards are very timely, and will provide a valuable and lasting reference for practitioners and academics alike. The editors would like to thank all of the members of ASCE Geo Institutes Technical Committee on Risk Assessment
15、and Management and the Engineering Practice of Risk Assessment and Management Committee (TC304) of the International Society of Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE) for their ongoing support. All the papers in this GSP went through a rigorous review process. The contributions of the
16、reviewers are much appreciated. The Editors Jinsong Huang, Ph.D., M.ASCE, University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia Gordon A. Fenton, Ph.D., P.Eng., FEIC, FCAE, M.ASCE, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Limin Zhang, Ph.D., F.ASCE, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, PR China D.V. Griff
17、iths, Ph.D., P.E., D.GE, F.ASCE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 284 iii ASCE Acknowledgments The following individuals deserve special acknowledgment and recognition for their efforts in making this conference a success Conference Chair: D.V. Griffiths, Colorado School o
18、f Mines, Golden, Colorado, USA Conference Co-Chair: Gordon A. Fenton, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada Technical Program Chair: Jinsong Huang, University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia Short-Courses: Limin Zhang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Student Program co-Chairs: Zhe Luo, U
19、niversity of Akron; Jack Montgomery, Auburn University Sponsorships and Exhibits Chair: Armin Stuedlein, Oregon State University The Editors greatly appreciate the work of Ms. Helen Cook, Ms. Leanne Shroeder, Ms. Brandi Steeves, and Mr. Drew Caracciolo of the ASCE Geo-Institute for their administrat
20、ion of many important conference organizational issues, including management of the on-line paper submissions, the conference web site and sponsorship. Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 284 iv ASCEContents Geohazards Calibration of Factors of Safety for Slope Stability of Dikes 1 Willem Kanning, Ana Teixeira, Mark
21、van der Krogt, Katerina Rippi, Timo Schweckendiek, and Bianca Hardeman Dataset for Empirical Assessment of Seismic Performance for Levees Founded on Peaty Organic Soils . 11 Yi-Tyan Tsai, Scott J. Brandenberg, Robert E. Kayen, Atsushi Mikami, Takashi Sato, and Jonathan P. Stewart Deformation Monitor
22、ing for the Assessment of Sacramento Delta Levee Performance 22 Victoria Bennett, Cathleen Jones, David Bekaert, Jason Bond, Amr Helal, Joel Dudas, Mohammed Gabr, and Tarek Abdoun Example of 2D Finite Element Analyses to Inform Backward Erosion Piping Evaluation of a Typical Levee Cross-Section . 32
23、 Michael P. Navin and Scott E. Shewbridge Lessons Learned from the 1986 Linda Levee Failure . 46 J. David Rogers and Katherine Grote Managing Levee Underseepage Risk during a Flood Event . 56 Glen M. Bellew Multiple Pore Pressure Measurements to Reduce Uncertainties in Piping Risk Assessment of Leve
24、es . 66 Carolyne Bocovich, Willem Kanning, and Michael A. Mooney Quantitative Risk-Informed Design of Levees . 76 Heather M. Sibley, Noah D. Vroman, and Scott E. Shewbridge Uncertainty in a Flood Damage Assessment of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Levees 91 Hollie Ellis, Dustin Jones, Jessica Ludy
25、, and Alexander Trahan A Feasible Approach for Landslide Susceptibility Map Using GIS . 101 Sowmiya Chawla, Amit Chawla, and Srinivas Pasupuleti Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 284 v ASCEAn Evaluation Methodology of Suitability for Construction after a Holistic and Heuristic Approach on a Slope Stability Analysis
26、 . 111 C. Jorge Can Empirical Rainfall-Landslide Correlations Be Extended to Future Extreme Storms? 125 L. Gao and L. M. Zhang Design and Construction of Debris Flow Deflection Structures for Multi-Source Mass Movement Zones in Urban Areas, Christchurch, New Zealand 133 Tiarnn Colgan History and Geo
27、logic Setting of Active Landslides in Colorado Springs 143 Karen S. Henry, Jonathan Lovekin, and Timothy Mitros Investigative Techniques and Risk Assessment for the Michigan Ditch Landslide . 162 Ryan T. Marsters and Rebecca J. Brock Probabilistic Back Analysis Based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion fo
28、r Rainfall-Induced Soil Slope Failure 173 F. Wu, L. L. Zhang, and H. W. Li Reliability Analysis of a Himalayan Rock Slope Considering Uncertainty in Post Peak Strength Parameters . 183 Gaurav Tiwari and Madhavi Latha Gali Risk Analysis of Vegetation on Levees 193 Lawrence H. Roth, Alex Trahan, Rosha
29、nak Aflaki, Kwasi Berko, and Ali Poosti Risk Assessment of Debris Flows along a Road Considering Redistribution of Elements at Risk . 206 H. X. Chen, L. M. Zhang, and Shi-Jin Feng Risk-Based Evacuation Decision Making on Hongshiyan Landslide Dam Triggered by the 2014 Ludian Earthquake in Yunnan, Chi
30、na 215 Y. Zhu, M. Peng, and L. M. Zhang Risk-Based Slope Hazard Evaluation System 226 Vatsal Shah and Erica Vigliorolo Simulating Hillslope Surface Erosion and Debris Flow Considering Variability of Soil Property 236 P. Shen, L. M. Zhang, H. Zhu, and X. Y. Li Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 284 vi ASCESinkhole Ha
31、zard Mapping Using Frequency Ratio and Logistic Regression Models for Central Florida 246 Yong Je Kim and Boo Hyun Nam Sinkhole Risk Evaluation: Detection of Raveled Soils in Central Floridas Karst Geology Using CPT 257 Ryan M. Shamet, Adam Perez, and Boo Hyun Nam Study on Monitoring for Detection o
32、f Potential Risk of Slope Failure for Labor Safety 267 Satoshi Tamate and Tomohito Hori Testing DEM Approaches for Rockfall Impact Modeling 280 Weigang Shen, Tao Zhao, Feng Dai, and Jiawen Zhou Impact of Spatial Variability and Probabilistic Site Characterization A Collection of Fluctuation Scale Va
33、lues and Autocorrelation Functions of Fine Deposits in Emilia Romagna Plain, Italy . 290 Joanna M. Pieczyska-Kozowska, Wojciech Pu a, and Giovanna Vessia A Probabilistic Approach for Predicting Settlement Due to Tunneling in Spatially Varying Glacial Till 300 Jacob G. Grasmick and Michael A. Mooney
34、Assessing Spatial Variability of Piezocone Penetration Resistance of Layered Soft Clays Using Geostatistics 310 Haifeng Zou, Guojun Cai, Songyu Liu, Tejo Vikash Bheemasetti, and Anand J. Puppala Case Study: Selection of an Appropriate Design Residual Strength for a Heavily Overconsolidated Clay . 32
35、0 G. Allen Bowers, William A. Billiet, and Hamid Riahi Effect of Soil Spatial Variability on Ground Settlement Induced by Shield Tunnelling 330 Li Xiao, Hongwei Huang, and Jie Zhang The Effect of the Spatial Variability of Clay Structure on Pipeline Uplift Capacity . 340 Tom Charlton and Mohamed Rou
36、ainia Effect of Spatial Variability on the Earth Pressure of a Rigid Retaining Wall 350 V. B. Chauhan, S. M. Dasaka, and U. S. Dasgupta Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 284 vii ASCEEffective Youngs Modulus for a Footing on a Spatially Variable Soil Mass . 360 Jianye Ching and Yu-Gang Hu Estimating Anisotropic Soil
37、 Properties Using Bayesian Kriging . 370 Wuzhang Luo, Teng Xuan, and Jinhui Li Estimating Spatial Correlations under Man-Made Structures on Soft Soils 382 T. de Gast, P. J. Vardon, and M. A. Hicks The Influence of Site Investigation Scope on Pile Design in Multi-Layered, 2D Variable Ground . 390 Mic
38、hael P. Crisp, Mark B. Jaksa, and Yien L. Kuo Influence of Spatial Variability of Shear Strength Parameters on 3D Slope Reliability and Comparison of Analysis Methods . 400 Divya Varkey, Michael A. Hicks, and Philip J. Vardon Multiscale Random Field-Based Shear Wave Velocity Mapping and Site Classif
39、ication . 410 Wenxin Liu, Chaofeng Wang, Qiushi Chen, Guoxing Chen, and C. Hsein Juang Optimizing Borehole Locations for Slope Reliability Assessment . 420 Shui-Hua Jiang, Iason Papaioannou, and Daniel Straub Prediction of Vibration Induced by High-Speed Train: Consideration of Soil Spatial Variabil
40、ity 431 F. Y. Chen, J. Zhang, X. L. Zhang, and S. J. Feng Probabilistic Analysis of Strip Footings Resting on Spatially Varying Soils Using Importance Sampling and Kriging Metamodeling . 440 Tamara Al-Bittar, Ashraf Ahmed, Abdul-Hamid Soubra, and Jawad Thajeel Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Slo
41、pes by Conditional Random Fields 450 Rui Yang, Jinsong Huang, D. V. Griffiths, and Daichao Sheng The Random Material Point Method 460 Bin Wang, Philip J. Vardon, and Michael A. Hicks Risk Assessment of Geotechnical Performance on Spatially Varying Soil by the Use of Sensitivity Index 467 M. K. Lo an
42、d Y. F. Leung Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 284 viii ASCESite Characterization in Geotechnical EngineeringDoes a Random Field Model Always Outperform a Random Variable Model? . 477 Wenping Gong, C. Hsein Juang, James R. Martin, and Lei Wang Spatial Correlation Length of Clay Soils in Practice and Its Influence
43、in Probabilistic Bearing Capacity Analysis 487 Lysandros Pantelidis and Panagiotis Christodoulou Towards Optimal Information Gain for Judicious Positioning of Sensors in Geophysical Tests . 497 Siddharth S. Parida, Kallol Sett, and Puneet Singla Undrained Stability of an Unlined Square Tunnel in Spa
44、tially Random Soil 507 Abid Ali, A. V. Lyamin, Jinsong Huang, S. W. Sloan, and M. J. Cassidy Geo-Risk 2017 GSP 284 ix ASCE Calibration of Factors of Safety for Slope Stability of Dikes Willem Kanning, Ph.D. 1 ; Ana Teixeira, Ph.D. 2 ; Mark van der Krogt 3 ;Katerina Rippi 4 ; Timo Schweckendiek, Ph.D
45、. 5 ; and Bianca Hardeman 61 Dept. of Dike Safety, Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands; Dept. of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft Univ. of Technology. E-mail: Wim.Kanningdeltares.nl 2 Dept. of Dike Safety, Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands. E-mail: Ana.Teixeiradel
46、tares.nl 3 Dept. of Dike Safety, Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands. E-mail: Mark.vanderKrogtdeltares.nl 4 Dept. of Dike Safety, Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands. E-mail: Katerina.Rippideltares.nl 5 Dept. of Dike Safety, Deltares, P.O. Box 177, 2600 MH Delft
47、, The Netherlands; Dept. of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft Univ. of Technology, The Netherlands. E-mail: Timo.Schweckendiekdeltares.nl 6 Rijkswaterstaat WVL, Flood Defense Dept., P.O. Box 2232, 3500 GE Utrecht, The Netherlands. E-mail: Bianca.Hardemanrws.nl Abstract Dikes in the Netherlands are by law
48、 required to comply with predefined safety standards. The goal of this paper is to derive the safety format and the required factor of safety for the inner slope (landside slope) instability failure mode. The first step is to derive the required target reliability for a cross-section. The second ste
49、p is to derive a safety format in which all uncertain variables in the slope stability computation are identified and accounted for by sufficiently safe parameters estimates. The third step is to derive the relation between target reliability and required Factor of Safety. This is done by evaluating 48 test cases. For each test case, the Factor of Safety is computed based on the safety format, as well the corresponding reliability index. This paper shows how to derive a required Factor of Safety based on a predefined target reliability. However,
