1、雅思（阅读）模拟试卷 80及答案与解析 0 Why risks can go wrong Human intuition is a bad guide to handling risk. A People make terrible decisions about the future. The evidence is all around, from their investments in the stock markets to the way they run their businesses. In fact, people are consistently bad at deali
2、ng with uncertainty, underestimating some kinds of risk and overestimating others. Surely there must be a better way than using intuition? B In the 1960s a young American research psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, became interested in peoples inability to make logical decisions. That launched him on a
3、career to show just how irrationally people behave in practice. When Kahneman and his colleagues first started work, the idea of applying psychological insights to economics and business decisions was seen as rather bizarre. But in the past decade the fields of behavioural finance and behavioural ec
4、onomics have blossomed, and in 2002 Kahneman shared a Nobel Prize in economics for his work. Today he is in demand by business organisations and international banking companies. But, he says, there are plenty of institutions that still fail to understand the roots of their poor decisions. He claims
5、that, far from being random, these mistakes are systematic and predictable. C One common cause of problems in decisionmaking is over-optimism. Ask most people about the future, and they will see too much blue sky ahead, even if past experience suggests otherwise. Surveys have shown that peoples fore
6、casts of future stock market movements are far more optimistic than past long-term returns would justify. The same goes for their hopes of ever-rising prices for their homes or doing well in games of chance. Such optimism can be useful for managers or sportsmen, and sometimes turns into a self-fulfi
7、lling prophecy. But most of the time it results in wasted effort and dashed hopes. Kahnemans work points to three types of over-confidence. First, people tend to exaggerate their own skill and prowess; in polls, far fewer than half the respondents admit to having below-average skills in, say, drivin
8、g. Second, they overestimate the amount of control they have over the future, forgetting about luck and chalking up success solely to skill. And third, in competitive pursuits such as dealing on shares, they forget that they have to judge their skills against those of the competition. D Another sour
9、ce of wrong decisions is related to the decisive effect of the initial meeting, particularly in negotiations over money. This is referred to as the anchor effect. Once a figure has been mentioned, it takes a strange hold over the human mind. The asking price quoted in a house sale, for example, tend
10、s to become accepted by all parties as the anchor around which negotiations take place. Much the same goes for salary negotiations or mergers and acquisitions. If nobody has much information to go on, a figure can provide comfort even though it may lead to a terrible mistake. E In addition, mistakes
11、 may arise due to stubbornness. No one likes to abandon a cherished belief, and the earlier a decision has been taken, the harder it is to abandon it. Drug companies must decide early to cancel a failing research project to avoid wasting money, but may find it difficult to admit they have made a mis
12、take. In the same way, analysts may have become wedded early to a single explanation that coloured their perception. A fresh eye always helps. F People also tend to put a lot of emphasis on things they have seen and experienced themselves, which may not be the best guide to decision-making. For exam
13、ple, somebody may buy an overvalued share because a relative has made thousands on it, only to get his fingers burned. In finance, too much emphasis on information close at hand helps to explain the tendency by most investors to invest only within the country they live in. Even though they know that
14、 diversification is good for their portfolio, a large majority of both Americans and Europeans invest far too heavily in the shares of their home countries. They would be much better off spreading their risks more widely. G More information is helpful in making any decision but, says Kahneman, peopl
15、e spend proportionally too much time on small decisions and not enough on big ones. They need to adjust the balance. During the boom years, some companies put as much effort into planning their office party as into considering strategic mergers. H Finally, crying over spilled milk is not just a wast
16、e of time; it also often colours peoples perceptions of the future. Some stock market investors trade far too frequently because they are chasing the returns on shares they wish they had bought earlier. I Kahneman reckons that some types of businesses are much better than others at dealing with risk
17、. Pharmaceutical companies, which are accustomed to many failures and a few big successes in their drug-discovery programmes, are fairly rational about their risk-taking. But banks, he says, have a long way to go. They may take big risks on a few huge loans, but are extremely cautious about their mu
18、ch more numerous loans to small businesses, many of which may be less risky than the big ones. And the research has implications for governments too. They face a whole range of sometimes conflicting political pressures, which means they are even more likely to take irrational decisions. Reading Pass
19、age 1 has nine paragraphs A-l. Choose the correct heading for Paragraphs B and D-H from the list of headings below. Write the correct number(i-xi)in boxes 1-6 on your answer sheet. List of headings i Not identifying the correct priorities ii A solution for the long term iii The difficulty of changin
20、g your mind iv Why looking back is unhelpful v Strengthening inner resources vi A successful approach to the study of decision-making vii The danger of trusting a global market viii Reluctance to go beyond the familiar ix The power of the first number x The need for more effective risk assessment xi
21、 Underestimating the difficulties ahead Example Answer Paragraph A x Paragraph C xi 1 Paragraph B 2 Paragraph D 3 Paragraph E 4 Paragraph F 5 Paragraph G 6 Paragraph H 7 People initially found Kahnemans work unusual because he （ A） saw mistakes as following predictable patterns. （ B） was unaware of
22、behavioural approaches. （ C） dealt with irrational types of practice. （ D） applied psychology to finance and economics. 8 The writer mentions house-owners attitudes towards the value of their homes to illustrate that （ A） past failures may destroy an optimistic attitude. （ B） people tend to exaggera
23、te their chances of success. （ C） optimism may be justified in certain circumstances. （ D） people are influenced by the success of others. 9 Stubbornness and inflexibility can cause problems when people （ A） think their financial difficulties are just due to bad luck. （ B） avoid seeking advice from
24、experts and analysts. （ C） refuse to invest in the early stages of a project. （ D） are unwilling to give up unsuccessful activities or beliefs. 10 Why do many Americans and Europeans fail to spread their financial risks when investing? （ A） They feel safer dealing in a context which is close to home
25、. （ B） They do not understand the benefits of diversification. （ C） They are over-influenced by the successes of their relatives. （ D） They do not have sufficient knowledge of one anothers countries. 11 Which two occupations may benefit from being over-optimistic? 12 Which practical skill are many p
26、eople over-confident about? 13 Which type of business has a generally good attitude to dealing with uncertainty? 13 You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 14-26, which are based on Reading Passage 2 below. There has always been a sense in which America and Europe owned film. They invented it
27、 at the end of the nineteenth century in unfashionable places like New Jersey, Leeds and the suburbs of Lyons. At first, they saw their clumsy new camera-projectors merely as more profitable versions of Victorian lantern shows, mechanical curiosities which might have a use as a sideshow at a funfair
28、. Then the best of the pioneers looked beyond the fairground properties of their invention. A few directors, now mostly forgotten, saw that the flickering new medium was more than just a diversion. This crass commercial invention gradually began to evolve as an art. DW Griffith in California glimpse
29、d its grace, German directors used it as an analogue to the human mind and the modernising city, Soviets emphasised its agitational and intellectual properties, and the Italians reconfigured it on an operatic scale. So heady were these first decades of cinema that America and Europe can be forgiven
30、for assuming that they were the only game in town. In less than twenty years western cinema had grown out of all recognition; its unknowns became the most famous people in the world; it made millions. It never occurred to its financial backers that another continent might borrow their magic box and
31、make it its own. But film industries were emerging in Shanghai, Bombay and Tokyo, some of which would outgrow those in the west. Between 1930 and 1935, China produced more than 500 films, mostly conventionally made in studios in Shanghai, without soundtracks. Chinas best directors Bu Wancang and Yua
32、n Muzhi introduced elements of realism to their stories. The Peach Girl(1931)and Street Angel(1937)are regularly voted among the best ever made in the country. India followed a different course. In the west, the arrival of talkies gave birth to a new genre the musical but in India, every one of the
33、5,000 films made between 1931 and the mid-1950s had musical interludes. The films were stylistically more wide-ranging than the western musical, encompassing realism and escapist dance within individual sequences, and they were often three hours long rather than Hollywoods 90 minutes. The cost of su
34、ch productions resulted in a distinctive national style of cinema. They were often made in Bombay, the centre of what is now known as Bollywood. Performed in Hindi(rather than any of the numerous regional languages), they addressed social and peasant themes in an optimistic and romantic way and foun
35、d markets in the Middle East, Africa and the Soviet Union. In Japan, the film industry did not rival Indias in size but was unusual in other ways. Whereas in Hollywood the producer was the central figure, in Tokyo the director chose the stories and hired the producer and actors. The model was that o
36、f an artist and his studio of apprentices. Employed by a studio as an assistant, a future director worked with senior figures, learned his craft, gained authority, until promoted to director with the power to select screenplays and performers. In the 1930s and 40s, this freedom of the director led t
37、o the production of some of Asias finest films. The films of Kenji Mizoguchi were among the greatest of these. Mizoguchis films were usually set in the nineteenth century and analysed the way in which the lives of the female characters whom he chose as his focus were constrained by the society of th
38、e time. From Osaka Elegy(1936)to Ugetsu Monogatari(1953)and beyond, he evolved a sinuous way of moving his camera in and around a scene, advancing towards significant details but often retreating at moments of confrontation or strong feeling. No one had used the camera with such finesse before. Even
39、 more important for film history, however, is the work of the great Ozu. Where Hollywood cranked up drama, Ozu avoided it. His camera seldom moved. It nestled at seated height, framing people square on, listening quietly to their words. Ozu rejected the conventions of editing, cutting not on action,
40、 as is usually done in the west, but for visual balance. Even more strikingly, Ozu regularly cut away from his action to a shot of a tree or a kettle or clouds, not to establish a new location but as a moment of repose. Many historians now compare such “pillow shots“ to the Buddhist idea that mu emp
41、ty space or nothing is itself an element of composition. As the art form most swayed by money and market, cinema would appear to be too busy to bother with questions of philosophy. The Asian nations proved and are still proving that this is not the case. Just as deep ideas about individual freedom h
42、ave led to the aspirational cinema of Hollywood, so it is the beliefs which underlie cultures such as those of China and Japan that explain the distinctiveness of Asian cinema at its best. Yes, these films are visually striking, but it is their different sense of what a person is, and what space and
43、 action are, which makes them new to western eyes. Questions 14-18 Do the following statements agree with the information given in Reading Passage 2? In boxes 14-18 on your answer sheet, write TRUE if the statement agrees with the information FALSE if the statement contradicts the information NOT GI
44、VEN if there is no information on this 14 The inventors of cinema regarded it as a minor attraction. （ A） TRUE （ B） FALSE （ C） NOT GIVEN 15 Some directors were aware of cinemas artistic possibilities from the very beginning. （ A） TRUE （ B） FALSE （ C） NOT GIVEN 16 The development of cinemas artistic
45、potential depended on technology. （ A） TRUE （ B） FALSE （ C） NOT GIVEN 17 Cinemas possibilities were developed in varied ways in different western countries. （ A） TRUE （ B） FALSE （ C） NOT GIVEN 18 Western businessmen were concerned about the emergence of film industries in other parts of the world. （
46、 A） TRUE （ B） FALSE （ C） NOT GIVEN 18 Complete the notes below using the list of words(A-K)from the box below. Write the correct letters in boxes 19-25 on your answer sheet. Chinese cinema large number of 【 R19】 _films produced in 1930s some early films still generally regarded as 【 R20】 _ Indian ci
47、nema films included musical interludes films avoided 【 R21】 _topics Japanese cinema unusual because film director was very 【 R22】 _ two important directors: Mizoguchi - focused on the 【 R23】 _restrictions faced by women - camera movement related to 【 R24】 _content of film Ozu - 【 R25】 _camera moveme
48、nt A emotional B negative C expensive D silent E social F outstanding G little H powerful I realistic J stylistic K economic 19 【 R19】 20 【 R20】 21 【 R21】 22 【 R22】 23 【 R23】 24 【 R24】 25 【 R25】 26 Which of the following is the most suitable title for Reading Passage 2? （ A） Blind to change: How is
49、it that the west has ignored Asian cinema for so long? （ B） A different basis: How has the cinema of Asian countries been shaped by their cultures and beliefs? （ C） Outside Asia: How did the origins of cinema affect its development worldwide? （ D） Two cultures: How has western cinema tried to come to terms with the challenge of the Asian market? 26 You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 27-40, which are based on Reading Passage 3 below. Quiet roads ahead The roar of passing vehicles could soo
