1、Designation: E 2506 061Standard Guide forDeveloping a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for Newand Existing Constructed Facilities1This standard is issued under the fixed designation E 2506; the number immediately following the designation indicates the year oforiginal adoption or, in the case of
2、revision, the year of last revision. A number in parentheses indicates the year of last reapproval. Asuperscript epsilon () indicates an editorial change since the last revision or reapproval.1NOTESection 2.2 was editorially corrected in January 2009.INTRODUCTIONProtecting constructed facilities fro
3、m damages from natural and man-made hazards in a cost-effective manner is a challenging task. Several measures of economic performance are available forevaluating building-related investments. These measures include, but are not limited to, life-cycle cost,present value net savings, savings-to-inves
4、tment ratio, and adjusted internal rate of return. This guideprovides a generic framework for assessing the risks associated with natural and man-made hazards,formulating combinations of risk mitigation strategies for constructed facilities exposed to thosehazards, and using measures of economic per
5、formance to identify the most cost-effective combinationof strategies.1. Scope1.1 This guide describes a generic framework for develop-ing a cost-effective risk mitigation plan for new and existingconstructed facilitiesbuildings, industrial facilities, and othercritical infrastructure. This guide pr
6、ovides owners and manag-ers of constructed facilities, architects, engineers, constructors,other providers of professional services for constructed facili-ties, and researchers an approach for formulating and evaluat-ing combinations of risk mitigation strategies.1.2 This guide insures that the comb
7、inations of mitigationstrategies are formulated so that they can be rigorouslyanalyzed with economic tools. Economic tools include evalu-ation methods, standards that support and guide the applicationof those methods, and software for implementing the evalua-tion methods.1.3 The generic framework de
8、scribed in this guide helpsdecision makers assess the likelihood that their facility and itscontents will be damaged from natural and man-made hazards;identify engineering, management, and financial strategies forabating the risk of damages; and use standardized economicevaluation methods to select
9、the most cost-effective combina-tion of risk mitigation strategies to protect their facility.1.4 The purpose of the risk mitigation plan is to provide themost cost-effective reduction in personal injuries, financiallosses, and damages to new and existing constructed facilities.Thus, the risk mitigat
10、ion plan incorporates perspectives frommultiple stakeholdersowners and managers, occupants andusers, and other affected partiesin addressing natural andman-made hazards.2. Referenced Documents2.1 ASTM Standards:2E 631 Terminology of Building ConstructionsE 833 Terminology of Building EconomicsE 917
11、Practice for Measuring Life-Cycle Costs of Buildingsand Building SystemsE 964 Practice for Measuring Benefit-to-Cost and Savings-to-Investment Ratios for Buildings and Building SystemsE 1057 Practice for Measuring Internal Rate of Return andAdjusted Internal Rate of Return for Investments in Build-i
12、ngs and Building SystemsE 1074 Practice for Measuring Net Benefits and Net Sav-ings for Investments in Buildings and Building SystemsE 1121 Practice for Measuring Payback for Investments inBuildings and Building SystemsE 1185 Guide for Selecting Economic Methods for Evalu-ating Investments in Buildi
13、ngs and Building SystemsE 1369 Guide for Selecting Techniques for Treating Uncer-tainty and Risk in the Economic Evaluation of Buildingsand Building SystemsE 1557 Classification for Building Elements and RelatedSiteworkUNIFORMAT II1This guide is under the jurisdiction of ASTM Committee E06 on Perfor
14、manceof Buildings and is the direct responsibility of Subcommittee E06.81 on BuildingEconomics.Current edition approved Sept. 15, 2006. Published September 2006.2For referenced ASTM standards, visit the ASTM website, www.astm.org, orcontact ASTM Customer Service at serviceastm.org. For Annual Book o
15、f ASTMStandards volume information, refer to the standards Document Summary page onthe ASTM website.1Copyright ASTM International, 100 Barr Harbor Drive, PO Box C700, West Conshohocken, PA 19428-2959, United States.E 1765 Practice for Applying Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) to Multiattribute Deci
16、sion Analysis of InvestmentsRelated to Buildings and Building SystemsE 1946 Practice for Measuring Cost Risk of Buildings andBuilding SystemsE 2103 Classification for Bridge Elements and RelatedApproach WorkE 2166 Practice for Organizing and Managing BuildingDataE 2204 Guide for Summarizing the Econ
17、omic Impacts ofBuilding-Related Projects2.2 Adjuncts:Discount Factor Tables Adjunct to Practices E 917, E 964,E 1057, E 1074, and E 112133. Terminology3.1 DefinitionsFor definitions of terms used in this guide,refer to Terminologies E 631 and E 833.4. Summary of Guide4.1 This guide presents a generi
18、c framework for developinga cost-effective risk mitigation plan for constructed facilitiesexposed to natural and man-made hazards. The generic frame-work consists of three interrelated components. The threecomponents are: (1) perform risk assessment; (2) specifycombinations of risk mitigation strate
19、gies; and (3) performeconomic evaluation. The generic framework builds on anapproach presented in Chapman and Leng (3).44.2 This guide identifies related ASTM standards and ad-juncts and describes why measuring uncertainty and risk iscritical in the development of cost-effective protective strate-gi
20、es for constructed facilities. In addition to ASTM standardsand adjuncts, this guide identifies technical documents andsoftware that support the generic framework. These documentsand software are summarized in Appendix X1.4.3 Data about the frequency and consequences of naturaland man-made hazards a
21、re helpful when assessing the risksthat a particular facility faces from these hazards. Historicalpatterns of natural disasters, in particular, indicate which areasare more prone to these specific hazards in the future. Manyanalysts refer to past incidences of man-made hazards, such ascrime, as pred
22、ictors of future occurrences. Sources of hazardsdata are presented in Appendix X2.5. Significance and Use5.1 Standard practices for measuring the economic perfor-mance of investments in buildings and building systems havebeen published by ASTM. A computer program that produceseconomic measures consi
23、stent with these practices is avail-able.5The computer program is described in Appendix X3.Discount Factor Tables has been published by ASTM to facili-tate computing measures of economic performance for most ofthe practices.5.2 Investments in long-lived projects, such as the erectionof new construct
24、ed facilities or additions and alterations toexisting constructed facilities, are characterized by uncertain-ties regarding project life, operation and maintenance costs,revenues, and other factors that affect project economics. Sincefuture values of these variable factors are generally unknown,it i
25、s difficult to make reliable economic evaluations.5.3 The traditional approach to uncertainty in project invest-ment analysis is to apply economic methods of project evalu-ation to best-guess estimates of project input variables, as ifthey were certain estimates, and then to present results in asing
26、le-value, deterministic fashion. When projects are evalu-ated without regard to uncertainty of inputs to the analysis,decision makers may have insufficient information to measureand evaluate the financial risk of investing in a project havinga different outcome from what is expected.5.4 To make reli
27、able economic evaluations, treatment ofuncertainty and risk is particularly important for projectsaffected by natural and man-made hazards that occur infre-quently, but have significant consequences.5.5 Following this guide when performing an economicevaluation assures the user that relevant economi
28、c information,including information regarding uncertain input variables, isconsidered for projects affected by natural and man-madehazards.5.6 Use this guide in the project initiation and planningphases of the project delivery process. Consideration of alter-native combinations of risk mitigation st
29、rategies early in theproject delivery process allows both greater flexibility inaddressing specific hazards and lower costs associated withtheir implementation.5.7 Use this guide for economic evaluations based onPractices E 917 (life-cycle costs), E 964 (benefit-to-cost andsavings-to-investment rati
30、os), E 1057 (internal rate of returnand adjusted internal rate of return), E 1074 (net benefits andnet savings), and E 1765 (analytical hierarchy process formultiattribute decision analysis).5.8 Use this guide in conjunction with Guide E 2204 tosummarize the results of economic evaluations involving
31、natural and man-made hazards.6. Procedures6.1 The recommended steps in developing a cost-effectiverisk mitigation plan are as follows:6.1.1 Establish risk mitigation objectives and constraints.6.1.2 Conduct assessment and document findings.6.1.3 Review alternative risk mitigation strategies.6.1.4 Se
32、lect candidate combinations of risk mitigation strat-egies.6.1.5 Develop cost estimates and sequence of cash flows foreach candidate combination.6.1.6 Select appropriate economic method(s) for evaluatingthe candidate combinations of risk mitigation strategies (seeGuide E 1185).6.1.7 Compute measures
33、 of economic performance for eachcandidate combination.3Available from ASTM International Headquarters. Order Adjunct No.ADJE091703.4The boldface numbers in parentheses refer to a list of references at the end ofthis standard.5The NIST Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection helps users
34、calculate measures of economic performance for buildings and building systems thatare consistent with ASTM standards. The program is downloadable from http:/www2.bfrl.nist.gov/software/CET.E250606126.1.8 Recompute measures of economic performance takinginto consideration uncertainty and risk (see Gu
35、ide E 1369 andPractice E 1946).6.1.9 Analyze results and recommend the most cost-effective combination of risk mitigation strategies.6.1.10 Prepare report with documentation supporting rec-ommended risk mitigation plan.7. Perform Risk Assessment7.1 Establish Risk Mitigation Objectives and Constraint
36、s:7.1.1 Specify the decision-makers objectives. This is cru-cial in defining the problem and determining the suitability ofthe economic evaluation method(s).7.1.2 Identify the constructed facility or set of facilities to beevaluated. Identify the types of hazards to be evaluated.7.1.3 Specify the de
37、sign or system objective that is to beaccomplished. Identify any constraints that limit the availableoptions to be considered.7.2 Conduct Assessment and Document Findings:7.2.1 Form an assessment team composed of individualsfamiliar with the type of facility or set of facilities to beevaluated, indi
38、viduals familiar with assessment tools andtechniques, and individuals who have breadth and depth ofexperience and understand other disciplines and system inter-dependencies. Refer to the risk assessment guidance docu-ments and software tools summarized in Appendix X1 to gainassessment insights on sp
39、ecific hazards or classes of hazards.Supplement your data sources with those described in Appen-dix X2 to compile information on the likelihood and severity ofspecific hazards or classes of hazards.7.2.2 Use information from the documents and softwaresummarized in Appendix X1 to produce an assessmen
40、t plan.Provide the assessment team with the tools, such as laptopcomputers and electronic forms/data collection sheets, neededto implement the assessment plan.7.2.3 Make assignments and deploy the assessment team.Collect and compile information on specific hazard types, theirlikelihood, and conseque
41、nces.7.2.4 Use an agreed upon format, such as ClassificationsE 1557 or E 2103 or Practice E 2166, to create a compiled setof information collected from the assessment team that docu-ments the findings of the risk assessment. Transmit the com-piled set of information to a central repository to insure
42、 thataccess to sensitive information can be limited to those with alegitimate need to know.8. Specify Combinations of Risk Mitigation Strategies forEvaluation8.1 Review Alternative Risk Mitigation StrategiesThissection describes three risk mitigation strategiesengineering,management, and financial.
43、Each strategy is composed ofmultiple approaches for addressing hazards identified in therisk assessment. These approaches focus on hazard mitigationfor a specific system or collection of systems and components,as well as facility and site-related elements. Strategies may beused either singly or in c
44、ombination. Past research indicatesthat combinations of risk mitigation strategies offer flexibilityin dealing with both a single hazard and multiple hazards.8.1.1 Engineering:8.1.1.1 Engineering strategies are technical options in theconstruction or renovation of constructed facilities, their sys-t
45、ems, or their subsystems designed to reduce the likelihood orconsequences of disasters. Engineering strategies provide pro-tection against both natural and man-made hazards. Engineer-ing strategies also help defend against man-made hazards,where their ability to detect or deter may reduce the likeli
46、hoodor consequences of such hazards.8.1.1.2 Protective engineering strategies are intended toreduce harm to occupants, damage to the structure, anddisruption of business if a disaster occurs. Protective engineer-ing strategies may improve the structural integrity of a build-ing, facilitate evacuatio
47、n of occupants, or circumvent compro-mised systems.8.1.1.3 There is some overlap among engineering strategiesthat deter, detect, and protect against terrorist attacks and othercriminal acts. Detection and protective engineering strategiesthat are observable to potential terrorists may deter them fro
48、mattacking. Closed-circuit television (CCTV), for example, isdesigned to detect unauthorized activities, but its visibility maydeter these activities.8.1.1.4 Risk mitigation strategies may also be hazard-specific. Reinforced building shell, shatter-resistant glass, anduse of barriers and bollards to
49、 achieve increased setbackdistances for existing buildings are examples of engineeringstrategies that protect against blast.8.1.2 Management:8.1.2.1 Management strategies can be procedural or techni-cal. Some management strategies relate to security, training,and communications. Others relate to decisions on where tolocate the building and who should have access to its systemsand subsystems. Some management strategies complementengineering strategies, while others substitute for them.8.1.2.2 Security practices are the use of security personneland procedures to prevent terr
