1、BSI Standards PublicationBS ISO 13381-1:2015Condition monitoring anddiagnostics of machines PrognosticsPart 1: General guidelinesBS ISO 13381-1:2015 BRITISH STANDARDNational forewordThis British Standard is the UK implementation of ISO 13381-1:2015.It supersedes BS ISO 13381-1:2004 which is withdraw
2、n.The UK participation in its preparation was entrusted to TechnicalCommittee GME/21/7, Mechanical vibration, shock and conditionmonitoring - Condition monitoring.A list of organizations represented on this committee can beobtained on request to its secretary.This publication does not purport to inc
3、lude all the necessaryprovisions of a contract. Users are responsible for its correctapplication. The British Standards Institution 2015.Published by BSI Standards Limited 2015ISBN 978 0 580 80980 4ICS 17.160Compliance with a British Standard cannot confer immunity fromlegal obligations.This British
4、 Standard was published under the authority of theStandards Policy and Strategy Committee on 31 October 2015.Amendments/corrigenda issued since publicationDate T e x t a f f e c t e dBS ISO 13381-1:2015 ISO 2015Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics Part 1: General guidelinesSu
5、rveillance et diagnostic des machines Pronostic Partie 1: Lignes directrices gnralesINTERNATIONAL STANDARDISO13381-1Second edition2015-09-15Reference numberISO 13381-1:2015(E)BS ISO 13381-1:2015ISO 13381-1:2015(E)ii ISO 2015 All rights reservedCOPYRIGHT PROTECTED DOCUMENT ISO 2015, Published in Swit
6、zerlandAll rights reserved. Unless otherwise specified, no part of this publication may be reproduced or utilized otherwise in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, or posting on the internet or an intranet, without prior written permission. Permission can be re
7、quested from either ISO at the address below or ISOs member body in the country of the requester.ISO copyright officeCh. de Blandonnet 8 CP 401CH-1214 Vernier, Geneva, SwitzerlandTel. +41 22 749 01 11Fax +41 22 749 09 47copyrightiso.orgwww.iso.orgBS ISO 13381-1:2015ISO 13381-1:2015(E)Foreword ivIntr
8、oduction v1 Scope . 12 Normative references 13 Terms and definitions . 14 Data requirements . 35 Prognosis concepts. 45.1 Basic concepts . 45.2 Influence factors 55.3 Trending, setting alert, alarm, and trip (shutdown) limits . 75.4 Multiple parameter analysis 95.5 Initiation criteria 105.6 Prognosi
9、s of failure mode initiation 116 Failure and deterioration models used for prognostics .126.1 Failure mode behaviour modelling concepts 126.2 Modelling types . 137 Generic prognosis process 137.1 Prognosis confidence levels 137.2 Prognosis process 147.2.1 General. 147.2.2 Pre-processing 147.2.3 Exis
10、ting failure mode prognosis process 157.2.4 Future failure mode prognosis process 157.2.5 Post-action prognosis .157.3 Prognosis report . 16Annex A (normative) Condition monitoring flow chart .17Annex B (informative) Example prognosis confidence level determination .18Annex C (informative) Failure m
11、odelling techniques 19Bibliography .21 ISO 2015 All rights reserved iiiContents PageBS ISO 13381-1:2015ISO 13381-1:2015(E)ForewordISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International S
12、tandards is normally carried out through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical committee has been established has the right to be represented on that committee. International organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, als
13、o take part in the work. ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matters of electrotechnical standardization.The procedures used to develop this document and those intended for its further maintenance are described in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 1. I
14、n particular the different approval criteria needed for the different types of ISO documents should be noted. This document was drafted in accordance with the editorial rules of the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2 (see www.iso.org/directives).Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the element
15、s of this document may be the subject of patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights. Details of any patent rights identified during the development of the document will be in the Introduction and/or on the ISO list of patent declarations received (
16、see www.iso.org/patents).Any trade name used in this document is information given for the convenience of users and does not constitute an endorsement.For an explanation on the meaning of ISO specific terms and expressions related to conformity assessment, as well as information about ISOs adherence
17、 to the WTO principles in the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) see the following URL: Foreword - Supplementary informationThe committee responsible for this document is ISO/TC 108, Mechanical vibration, shock and condition monitoring, Subcommittee SC 5, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machi
18、ne systems.This second edition cancels and replaces the first edition (ISO 13381-1:2004), which has been technically revised.ISO 13381 consists of the following parts, under the general title Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics: Part 1: General guidelinesThe following parts
19、are planned: Part 2: Performance based approaches Part 3: Cyclic-driven life usage techniques Part 4: Useful-life-remaining prediction modelsiv ISO 2015 All rights reservedBS ISO 13381-1:2015ISO 13381-1:2015(E)IntroductionThe complete process of machine condition monitoring consists of five distinct
20、 phases: detection of problems (deviations from normal conditions); diagnosis of the faults and their causes; prognosis of future fault progression; recommendation of actions; post-mortems.Machine health prognosis demands prediction of future machine integrity and deterioration so there can be no ex
21、actitude in the process. Instead, prognosis requires statistical or testimonial approaches to be adopted. Standardization in machine health prognosis therefore embodies guidelines, approaches, and concepts rather than strict procedures or standard methodologies.Prognosis of future fault progressions
22、 requires foreknowledge of the probable failure modes, future duties to which the machine will or might be subjected, and a thorough understanding of the relationships between failure modes and operating conditions. This may require an understanding of the physics underlying the fault modes and dema
23、nd the collection of previous duty and cumulative duty parameters, previous maintenance history, inspection results, run-to-failure data, trajectories and associated operational data, along with condition and performance parameters prior to extrapolations, projections and forecasts.Prognosis process
24、es need to be able to accommodate analytical damage models.As computing power increases, and data storage decreases in cost, multiple-parameter analysis becomes more complex and modelling becomes more sophisticated. Thus, the ability to predict the progression of damage accumulation is achievable if
25、 the initiation criterion is known (expressed as a set of parameter values for a given mode) in addition to future behaviour for a given set of conditions. ISO 2015 All rights reserved vBS ISO 13381-1:2015BS ISO 13381-1:2015Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Prognostics Part 1: General
26、 guidelines1 ScopeThis part of ISO 13381 provides guidance for the development and application of prognosis processes. It is intended to allow developers, providers, users and manufacturers to share common concepts of prognostics, enable users to determine the data, characteristics, processes and be
27、haviours necessary for accurate prognosis, outline appropriate approaches and processes to prognostics development, and introduce prognostics concepts in order to facilitate future systems and training.Other parts will include the introduction of concepts of the following forms of prognostic approac
28、hes: performance changes (trending) approaches (ISO 13381-2), cyclic-driven life usage techniques (ISO 13381-3), and useful-life-remaining models (ISO 13381-4).2 Normative referencesThe following documents, in whole or in part, are normatively referenced in this document and are indispensable for it
29、s application. For dated references, only the edition cited applies. For undated references, the latest edition of the referenced document (including any amendments) applies.ISO 2041, Mechanical vibration, shock and condition monitoring VocabularyISO 13372, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of ma
30、chines VocabularyISO 13379-1, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines Data interpretation and diagnostics techniques Part 1: General guidelinesISO 17359, Condition monitoring and diagnostics of machines General guidelines3 Terms and definitionsFor the purposes of this document, the terms an
31、d definitions given in ISO 13372 and ISO 2041 and the following apply.3.1prognosisestimation of time to failure and risk for one or more incipient failure modesSOURCE: ISO 13372:2012, 10.2INTERNATIONAL STANDARD ISO 13381-1:2015(E) ISO 2015 All rights reserved 1BS ISO 13381-1:2015ISO 13381-1:2015(E)3
32、.2prognosticsanalysis of the symptoms of faults to predict future condition and residual life within design parametersSOURCE: ISO 13372:2012, 1.153.3confidence levelfigure of merit (e.g. percentage) that indicates the degree of certainty that the diagnosis/prognosis is correctNote 1 to entry: This f
33、igure essentially represents the cumulative effect of error sources on the final certainty or confidence in the accuracy of the outcome. Such a figure can be determined algorithmically or via a weighted assessment system.3.4root causeset of conditions or actions that occur at the beginning of a sequ
34、ence of events that result in the initiation of a failure modeSOURCE: ISO 13372:2012, 8.93.5failure modes effects analysisFMEAstructured procedure to determine equipment functions and functional failures, with each failure being assessed as to the cause of the failure and the effects of the failure
35、on the systemNote 1 to entry: The technique may be applied to a new system based on analysis or an existing system based on historical data.Note 2 to entry: A FMEA procedure is outlined in IEC 60812.3SOURCE: ISO 13372:2012, 8.23.6failure modes effects criticality analysisFMECAFMEA with a classificat
36、ion process based on the severity of the faultsNote 1 to entry: This is in comparison with the criticality thresholds.Note 2 to entry: A FMECA procedure is also outlined in IEC 60812.3SOURCE: ISO 13372:2012, 8.33.7failure modes symptoms analysisFMSAprocess based on FMECA that documents the symptoms
37、produced by each mode and the most effective detection and monitoring techniques in order to develop and optimize a monitoring programmeNote 1 to entry: This process is outlined in ISO 13379-1.3.8estimated time to failureETTFestimation of the period from the current point in time to the point in tim
38、e where the monitored machine is deemed to be in the failed conditionNote 1 to entry: Defined in Figure 2.2 ISO 2015 All rights reservedBS ISO 13381-1:2015ISO 13381-1:2015(E)3.9remaining useful lifeRULremaining time before system health falls below a defined failure threshold3.10predictive horizonth
39、reshold for prediction of lead time to failure as desired by the user4 Data requirements4.1 The general concepts for condition monitoring are outlined in ISO 17359 and form the basis for the prognostic process and its pre-requisites. Prognostics may require the collection of documented data covering
40、a) the total population of plant, machinery and components under observation along with original equipment specifications,b) all monitored parameters and descriptors,c) expert knowledge of baseline, commissioning, historical operation, maintenance, inspection and failure data,d) current and future o
41、perating and maintenance environments, regimes, requirements and schedules,e) initial diagnosis inclusive of identification of all existing failure modes,f) failure models including single and multiple failure modes that can include statistics, existing and future failure mode influence factors, ini
42、tiation criteria, and failure definition set points for all parameters, and descriptors,g) curve fitting, projection and superimposition techniques,h) alarm limits,i) trip (shut-down) limits,j) performance thresholds relating to system health,k) failure investigation results,l) reliability, availabi
43、lity, maintainability, cost and safety data,m) damage initiation data,n) damage progression data,o) manufacturing configuration state (lot number, batch number, etc.), andp) environmental data that has an impact on component health.All this information may not be available in some applications and c
44、ases.4.2 There are specific objectives for the collection of reliability data relating to current condition and field performance of machinery: survey the actual reliability and, hence, to enable the predicted reliability characteristics of an item to be made and compared with field data, and damage
45、 models and thereby to improve future predictions; provide data for improving the reliability of both the current item and future developments; provide data for verifying and validating models and algorithms. ISO 2015 All rights reserved 3BS ISO 13381-1:2015ISO 13381-1:2015(E)4.3 There are specific
46、objectives for the collection of data relating to current field duties and cumulative duties of machinery: survey the relationship between the actual reliability and the work done, hence, to enable the comparison of damage initiation and progression models with field data; provide data for improving
47、 the damage estimation models of both the current item and future developments; provide data for extending the range of applications for damage estimation models.4.4 There are specific objectives for the collection of cost data relating to monitoring equipment and usage, production losses, secondary
48、 damage losses, maintenance activities and inventories of machinery: survey the benefit-to-cost ratios of various alternative maintenance actions; improve future maintenance decisions; provide data for reducing the operating and maintenance costs of both the current item and future embodiments; prov
49、ide cost data (along with monitored data and performance data, and also field duty data, see 4.3) for the optimal organization and management of any maintenance operation (on-condition maintenance, scheduled preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance, service personnel, spare parts stores, etc.).5 Prognosis concepts5.1 Basic conceptsPrognosis is an estimation of time to failure and the probability of one or more existing and future failure modes. It is based on detailed knowledge and experience of
