1、Oktober 2013Bereich InnovationPreisgruppe 34DIN Deutsches Institut fr Normung e. V. Jede Art der Vervielfltigung, auch auszugsweise, nur mit Genehmigung des DIN Deutsches Institut fr Normung e. V., Berlin, gestattet.ICS 03.100.01Zur Erstellung einer DIN SPEC knnen verschiedene Verfahrensweisen heran
2、gezogen werden: Das vorliegende Dokument wurde nach den Verfahrensregeln eines CWAs erstellt.!%)=J“2062639www.din.deDDIN CWA 16649Umgang mit Risiken aus neuen Technologien;Englische Fassung CWA 16649:2013Managing emerging technology-related risks;English version CWA 16649:2013Management de risques l
3、is aux technologies nouvelles;Version anglaise CWA 16649:2013Alleinverkauf der Spezifikationen durch Beuth Verlag GmbH, 10772 Berlin www.beuth.deGesamtumfang 149 SeitenDIN SPEC 91299DIN CWA 16649 (DIN SPEC 91299):2013-10 2 Nationales Vorwort Dieses europische CEN Workshop Agreement (CWA 16649:2013)
4、wurde vom CEN Workshop CEN/WS 67 General Framework and Guidelines for Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated Management of Emerging New Technology Related Risks“ bei CEN erarbeitet, dessen Sekretariat vom DIN (Deutschland) gehalten wurde. Es handelt sich um eine unvernderte bernahme der CWA 16
5、649 Managing emerging technology-related risks“ als DIN CWA 16649 (DIN SPEC 91299) Umgang mit Risiken aus neuen Technologien“. Eine DIN SPEC nach dem CWA-Verfahren ist die nationale bernahme einer CEN/CENELEC-Vereinbarung, die innerhalb offener CEN/CENELEC Workshops entwickelt wird und den Konsens z
6、wischen den registrierten Personen und Organisationen widerspiegelt, die fr den Inhalt verantwortlich sind. Arbeiten eines CEN Workshop werden nicht durch ein nationales Gremium gespiegelt. Bei dem zu Grunde liegenden CWA wurde ein Entwurf durch CEN verffentlicht. DIN CWA sind nicht Bestandteil des
7、Deutschen Normenwerks. Es wird auf die Mglichkeit hingewiesen, dass einige Elemente dieses Dokuments Patentrechte berhren knnen. Das DIN und/oder die DKE sind nicht dafr verantwortlich, einige oder alle diesbezglichen Patentrechte zu identifizieren. EUROPEAN COMMITTEE FOR STANDARDIZATION COMIT EUROP
8、EN DE NORMALISATION EUROPISCHES KOMITEE FR NORMUNG Management Centre: Avenue Marnix 17, B-1000 Brussels 2013 CEN All rights of exploitation in any form and by any means reserved worldwide for CEN national Members. Ref. No.:CWA 16649:2013 E CEN WORKSHOP AGREEMENT CWA 16649 June 2013 ICS 03.100.01 Eng
9、lish version Managing emerging technology-related risks This CEN Workshop Agreement has been drafted and approved by a Workshop of representatives of interested parties, the constitution of which is indicated in the foreword of this Workshop Agreement. The formal process followed by the Workshop in
10、the development of this Workshop Agreement has been endorsed by the National Members of CEN but neither the National Members of CEN nor the CEN-CENELEC Management Centre can be held accountable for the technical content of this CEN Workshop Agreement or possible conflicts with standards or legislati
11、on. This CEN Workshop Agreement can in no way be held as being an official standard developed by CEN and its Members. This CEN Workshop Agreement is publicly available as a reference document from the CEN Members National Standard Bodies. CEN members are the national standards bodies of Austria, Bel
12、gium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switz
13、erland, Turkey and United Kingdom. CWA 16649:2013 (E) 2 Contents Page Foreword 7 Introduction .8 Acknowledgements 9 1 Scope . 11 2 Normative references . 12 3 Terms and definitions 12 4 Symbols and abbreviations . 19 5 Emerging risks 21 5.1 Emerging risks, innovation and engineering . 21 5.2 Emergin
14、g risks definition . 22 5.3 Extending and implementing the definition in ERMF . 23 5.4 Scales, classes and levels of emerging risks 25 5.5 Maturation of emerging risks 29 6 Requirements 30 6.1 General requirements . 30 6.2 Requirements resulting from iNTeg-Risk project 31 6.3 Implementation related
15、requirements. 32 7 ERMF Emerging risk management framework . 33 7.1 Main principles of ERMF 33 7.2 The 10 steps of ERMF 34 7.3 Comparing the iNTeg-Risk ERMF with general risk management frameworks . 43 7.4 Details on implementing the ERMF. 46 8 Concluding remarks . 48 Annex A (informative) Applicati
16、on case for new technologies . 49 A.1 Introduction . 49 A.2 Specific topic and example case . 50 A.2.1 General remarks/overview related to the specific topic . 50 A.2.2 Introducing the example case - Unconventional gas 50 A.3 Procedure for management of emerging risks 51 A.3.1 Horizon screening. 51
17、A.3.2 Pre-Assessment 52 A.3.3 Appraisal/Assessment . 58 A.3.4 Continuous activities . 66 A.4 Conclusions/Summary . 67 A.5 Example Use of new technologies for unconventional gas 67 A.5.1 Hydraulic fracturing 67 Annex B (informative) Emerging risks in new materials and products 72 B.1 Introduction . 7
18、2 B.2 Specific topic and example case . 73 B.2.1 General remarks/overview related to the specific topic . 73 B.3 Procedure for management of emerging risks 73 B.3.1 Horizon screening. 73 B.3.2 Pre-Assessment 74 B.3.3 Appraisal/Assessment . 77 B.3.4 Continuous activities . 80 B.4 Conclusions/Summary
19、. 81 B.5 Example - Carbon nanotubes 82 DIN CWA 16649 (DIN SPEC 91299):2013-10 CWA 16649:2013 (E) 3 B.5.1 Introduction 82 B.5.2 Lack of standardized physical and chemical information 83 B.5.3 Fibrous nanomaterials emerging risk . 83 Annex C (informative) Emerging risks in new production and productio
20、n networks . 85 C.1 Introduction 85 C.2 Specific topic and example case . 86 C.2.1 General remarks/overview related to the specific topic 86 C.2.2 Introducing the example case - Drilling in Arctic . 86 C.3 Procedure for management of emerging risks 87 C.3.1 Horizon Screening . 87 C.3.2 Pre-Assessmen
21、t 88 C.3.3 Appraisal/Assessment 90 C.3.4 Continuous activities 93 C.4 Conclusions/Summary 94 C.5 Example Drilling in Arctic 94 C.5.1 Introduction 94 C.5.2 Needs and opportunities 95 C.5.3 Status of offshore petroleum activity in the Arctic 96 Annex D (informative) Emerging risk policies . 97 D.1 Int
22、roduction 97 D.2 Specific topic and example case . 98 D.2.1 General remarks/overview related to the specific topic 98 D.2.2 Introducing the example case - Nano-regulation . 99 D.3 Process for management of emerging risks 101 D.3.1 Horizon screening . 101 D.3.2 Pre-Assessment 101 D.3.3 Appraisal/Asse
23、ssment 103 D.3.4 Continuous activities 105 D.4 Conclusions/Summary 106 Annex E (informative) Emerging risks due to uncertainties in measurement and characterization 107 E.1 Introduction 107 E.2 Specific topic and example case . 108 E.2.1 General remarks/overview related to the specific topic 108 E.2
24、.2 Introducing the example case extreme storage of hazardous materials 109 E.3 Procedure for management of emerging risks 109 E.3.1 Horizon screening . 109 E.3.2 Pre-Assessment 110 E.3.3 Appraisal/Assessment 113 E.3.4 Continuous Activities 116 E.4 Conclusions/Summary 117 E.5 Example Extreme storage
25、of hazardous materials . 118 Annex F (informative) Examples of factors which can influence the emerging character of a risk - the 50 iNTeg-Risk factors of emergence . 120 F.1 Introduction 120 F.2 Factors using generic scale . 121 F.3 Factors using specific/customized scale 124 Annex G (informative)
26、Used Tools 129 G.1 RiskEars . 129 G.2 Risk Tweet 130 G.2.1 Activity 131 G.2.2 Trend . 131 G.2.3 Criticality 131 G.3 S-RDI tool . 131 G.4 Agent based modeling 132 Annex H (informative) Sample list of emerging risks 133 Bibliography 138 DIN CWA 16649 (DIN SPEC 91299):2013-10 CWA 16649:2013 (E) 4 Figur
27、es Figure 1 Relations among the informative Annexes and the main document 11 Figure 2 Emergence as 3rddimension of emerging risks 24 Figure 3 General understanding of scales, classes and levels as applied to emerging risks in this document25 Figure 4 Threat-opportunity based representation, combined
28、 with emerging character (emergence) of risks (threat and opportunity) 26 Figure 5 Example of use classes of benefits, likelihood and levels of risk (opportunity) 28 Figure 6 Maturation of emerging risk through accumulation of knowledge 29 Figure 7 Example of three different maturation paths for eme
29、rging risks: archived or back-listed notion (C), emerging risk which have achieved stable (mature) status (B), and risks still emerging (A) . 30 Figure 8 Organization of iNTeg-Risk deliverables leading to this CEN WS document . 34 Figure 9 The 10 steps of the ERMF 35 Figure 10 Main distinctive chara
30、cteristics of the ERMF process 43 Figure 11 Using ISO 31000 and IRGC frameworks as a base for creating iNTeg-Risk ERMF 45 Figure 12 Details on the implementation of the ERMF applicable in certain contexts 46 Figure 13 Example of process for management of emerging risks based on ERMF and illustration
31、 of the maturation of emerging risks 47 Figure A.1 Registration of warning/notion in iNTeg-Risk RiskEars . 51 Figure A.2 Risk Tweet, with collected information on tweets related to fracking from Twitter service . 52 Figure A.3 Risk/benefit perception for fracking . 53 Figure A.4 Example of Step 2: N
32、TA model for fracking in case of (Lack of acceptance in) Germany (linked to media reports). 54 Figure A.5 Example of Step 2: NTA model for fracking case depicting large public dissatisfaction that can be compared to current hydraulic fracturing related problem in Basque Country 21 . 55 Figure A.6 Ri
33、sk Story from RiskEars (describing an emerging risk scenario) about contamination of underground water for fracking topic 56 Figure A.7 Example of Step 4: Extract from the pre-assessment; filled pre-assessment for contamination of (surface and) underground water for unconventional gas example in for
34、m of the slider setting from an expert considering only environmental risks of technology 57 Figure A.8 Example of Step 5: S-RDI analysis for unconventional gas topic when comparing it with other ERRAs (using single link clustering option) 60 Figure A.9 Example of Step 5: C-RDI analysis from DataEng
35、ine software of contamination of (surface and) underground water for unconventional gas 61 DIN CWA 16649 (DIN SPEC 91299):2013-10 CWA 16649:2013 (E) 5 Figure A.10 Example of Step 6: Characterization of contamination of (surface and) underground water scenario of unconventional gas . 62 Figure A.11 E
36、xample for five unconventional gas scenarios MCDM analysis based on 12 IRGC factors (for more information about factors please see Table F.4) . 64 Figure A.12 Graphical representation of shale gas resources in Germany overlapping with natural protected areas in Baden-Wrttemberg (shown red) from iNTe
37、g-Risk RiskAtlas . 65 Figure A.13 Process of hydraulic fracturing 30 68 Figure A.14 Projections of global mean surface temperatures for six SRES non-mitigation scenarios as presented by IPCC AR4 and the year 2000 constant concentration experiment 14 69 Figure A.15 River system in US (left), location
38、s of major drilling campaigns in US (right) 36 . 69 Figure A.16 Employment in various US industries and natural gas prices at major global market 38 70 Figure A.17 Major unconventional natural gas resources in Europe 29 70 Figure A.18 Map of 48 major shale gas basins in 32 countries 25 71 Figure B.1
39、 Image of asbestos fibres similar to fibrous nanomaterials. 83 Figure C.1 Geographical location of the Arctic Sea 92 95 Figure G.1 Overview of notions (RiskSparks, with notions included in watch list and copy list), ERIs, ERRAs and Super ERRAs . 129 Figure G.2 Reference to Google trends results for
40、geomagnetic storms 130 Figure G.3 MACD 131 Tables Table 1 Example of Color-code for scoring emerging risks (and opportunity) 27 Table 2 Example of Color-code for the status in the (pre)assessment process 27 Table 3 Examples of likelihood scale 5 classes 27 Table 4 Examples of negative impacts (conse
41、quences) scale 5 classes . 28 Table 5 Short description of 10 steps of the ERMF . 35 Table 6 Extended description of the 10 steps of the ERMF 36 Table 7 Profile of involvement of the stakeholders at different levels of governance for a hypothetical example of an emerging risk (the colors indicate th
42、e level of concern; concern primarily at national level). 48 Table A.1 List of ERRAs considered in iNTeg-Risk project . 58 Table A.2 List of 50 iNTeg-Risk factors . 63 Table F.1 Generic scale for classes of emergence for emerging risks 120 DIN CWA 16649 (DIN SPEC 91299):2013-10 CWA 16649:2013 (E) 6
43、Table F.2 Examples of factors which can influence the emerging character (emergence) of emerging risks121 Table F.3 Examples of factors which can influence the emerging character (emergence) of emerging risks124 Table F.4 The 12 IRGC Factors 127 Table H.1 Sample list of emerging risks 133 DIN CWA 16
44、649 (DIN SPEC 91299):2013-10 CWA 16649:2013 (E) 7 Foreword This CEN Workshop Agreement has been drafted and approved by a Workshop of representatives of interested parties on 2013-05-13, the constitution of which was supported by CEN following the public call for participation made on 2011-08-30. A
45、list of the individuals and organizations which supported the technical consensus represented by the CEN Workshop Agreement is available to purchasers from the CEN-CENELEC Management Centre. The following organisations officially took part to the development of this CWA: EU-VRi - European Virtual In
46、stitute for Integrated Risk Management EEIG EDF lectricit de France S.A. GDF Suez GIE AXA INERIS - Institut National de lEnvironnement Industriel et des Risques KMM-VIN European Virtual Institute on Knowledge-based Multifunctional Materials AISBL MERL - Materials Engineering Research Laboratory Limi
47、ted R-Tech - Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies GmbH Stiftelsen Sintef Swiss Re - Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd Tecnalia - Fundacion Tecnalia Research in iNTeg-Risk seventeen such technologies are proposed as so-called ERRAs (Emerging Risk Representative Applications), see http:/www.integrisk.eu-v
48、ri.eu/home.aspx?lan=230 reference methodologies, mainly in the form of guidelines (iNTeg-Risk Guidelines) and tools supporting application of the above principles and methodologies in form of a software suite (iNTeg-Risk 1StopShop2). The framework is, thus, envisaged as one of the key elements of th
49、e overall iNTeg-Risk solution and it defines the practical agreed way of dealing with emerging risks and managing them. In addition, the ERMF provides the basis for the common EU recommended practices and standardized practices for dealing with emerging risks due to new technologies. The main objective of the framework is to set a transparent agreed way for management of emerging risks and to provide th
