1、BSI Standards PublicationPD CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016PD ISO/TR 12489:2013Petroleum, petrochemicaland natural gas industries Reliability modelling andcalculation of safety systemsPD CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016 PUBLISHED DOCUMENTNational forewordThis Published Document is the UK implementation of CEN ISO/TR 124
2、89:2016. It is identical to ISO/TR 12489:2013. It supersedes PD ISO/TR 12489:2013 which is withdrawn.The UK participation in its preparation was entrusted to Technical Committee PSE/17, Materials and equipment for petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries.A list of organizations represente
3、d on this committee can be obtained on request to its secretary.This publication does not purport to include all the necessary provisions of a contract. Users are responsible for its correct application. The British Standards Institution 2016. Published by BSI Standards Limited 2016ISBN 978 0 580 88
4、682 9ICS 75.180.01; 75.200Compliance with a British Standard cannot confer immunity from legal obligations.This British Standard was published under the authority of the Standards Policy and Strategy Committee on 30 November 2013.Amendments/corrigenda issued since publicationDate Text affected29 Feb
5、ruary 2016 This corrigendum renumbers PD ISO/TR 12489:2013 as PD CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016.TECHNICAL REPORT RAPPORT TECHNIQUE TECHNISCHER BERICHT CEN ISO/TR 12489 January 2016 ICS 75.200; 75.180.01 English Version Petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries - Reliability modelling and calculatio
6、n of safety systems (ISO/TR 12489:2013) Ptrole, ptrochimie et gaz naturel - Modlisation et calcul fiabilistes des systmes de scurit (ISO/TR 12489:2013) Erdl-, petrochemische und Erdgasindustrie - Zuverlssigkeit der Modellierung und Berechnung von Sicherheitssystemen (ISO/TR 12489:2013) This Technica
7、l Report was approved by CEN on 28 March 2015. It has been drawn up by the Technical Committee CEN/TC 12. CEN members are the national standards bodies of Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, France, Germany, G
8、reece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom. EUROPEAN COMMITTEE FOR STANDARDIZATION COMIT EUROPEN DE NORMALISATION EUROPISCHES KOMITEE FR NORMU
9、NG CEN-CENELEC Management Centre: Avenue Marnix 17, B-1000 Brussels 2016 CEN All rights of exploitation in any form and by any means reserved worldwide for CEN national Members. Ref. No. CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016 EPD CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016 (E)CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016 (E) 3 European fore
10、word This document (CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016) has been prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 67 “Materials, equipment and offshore structures for petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries” in collaboration with Technical Committee CEN/TC 12 “Materials, equipment and offshore structures for p
11、etroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries” the secretariat of which is held by NEN. Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this document may be the subject of patent rights. CEN and/or CENELEC shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent r
12、ights. Endorsement notice The text of ISO/TR 12489:2013 has been approved by CEN as CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016 without any modification. ISO 2013 All rights reserved iiiContents PageForeword vIntroduction vi1 Scope . 12 Analysis framework . 22.1 Users of this Technical Report . 22.2 ISO/TR 12489 with reg
13、ard to risk and reliability analysis processes . 22.3 Overview of the reliability modelling and calculation approaches considered in this Technical Report 42.4 Safety systems and safety functions . 73 Terms and definitions . 83.1 Basic reliability concepts . 83.2 Failure classification 203.3 Safety
14、systems typology . 243.4 Maintenance issues 253.5 Other terms . 283.6 Equipment-related terms . 294 Symbols and abbreviated terms 305 Overview and challenges 335.1 General considerations about modelling and calculation challenges 335.2 Deterministic versus probabilistic approaches .355.3 Safe failur
15、e and design philosophy .355.4 Dependent failures .365.5 Human factors 375.6 Documentation of underlying assumptions .406 Introduction to modelling and calculations416.1 Generalities about safety systems operating in “on demand” or “continuous” modes .416.2 Analytical approaches 447 Analytical formu
16、lae approach (low demand mode) .477.1 Introduction . 477.2 Underlying hypothesis and main assumptions 477.3 Single failure analysis . 487.4 Double failure analysis 507.5 Triple failure analysis .557.6 Common cause failures .567.7 Example of implementation of analytical formulae: the PDS method .577.
17、8 Conclusion about analytical formulae approach 578 Boolean and sequential approaches .588.1 Introduction .588.2 Reliability block diagrams (RBD) .588.3 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 598.4 Sequence modelling: cause consequence diagrams, event tree analysis, LOPA 618.5 Calculations with Boolean models 61
18、8.6 Conclusion about the Boolean approach .649 Markovian approach .659.1 Introduction and principles 659.2 Multiphase Markov models .689.3 Conclusion about the Markovian approach 6910 Petri net approach .6910.1 Basic principle 6910.2 RBD driven Petri net modelling . 71PD CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016ISO/TR
19、12489:2013(E)iv ISO 2013 All rights reserved10.3 Conclusion about Petri net approach . 7411 Monte Carlo simulation approach .7412 Numerical reliability data uncertainty handling .7413 Reliability data considerations 7513.1 Introduction .7513.2 Reliability data sources.7613.3 Required reliability dat
20、a 7813.4 Reliability data collection . 8014 Typical applications .8014.1 Introduction . 8014.2 Typical application TA1: single channel . 8214.3 Typical application TA2: dual channel . 9714.4 Typical application TA3: popular redundant architecture 11014.5 Typical application TA4: multiple safety syst
21、em .11914.6 Typical application TA5: emergency depressurization system (EDP) 12414.7 Conclusion about typical applications 135Annex A (informative) Systems with safety functions . 136Annex B (informative) State analysis and failure classification 146Annex C (informative) Relationship between failure
22、 rate, conditional and unconditional failure intensities and failure frequency . 152Annex D (informative) Broad models for demand mode (reactive) safety systems 160Annex E (informative) Continuous mode (preventive) safety systems 167Annex F (informative) Multi-layers safety systems/multiple safety s
23、ystems .170Annex G (informative) Common cause failures 173Annex H (informative) The human factor 180Annex I (informative) Analytical formulae . 186Annex J (informative) Sequential modelling . 207Annex K (informative) Overview of calculations with Boolean models213Annex L (informative) Markovian appr
24、oach . 221Annex M (informative) Petri net modelling 239Annex N (informative) Monte Carlo simulation approach 248Annex O (informative) Numerical uncertainties handling . 252Bibliography . 255PD CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016ISO/TR 12489:2013(E)ForewordISO (the International Organization for Standardization) i
25、s a worldwide federation of national standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical committee has been established has the right to be represe
26、nted on that committee. International organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in liaison with ISO, also take part in the work. ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matters of electrotechnical standardization.The procedures used to develop
27、 this document and those intended for its further maintenance are described in the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 1. In particular the different approval criteria needed for the different types of ISO documents should be noted. This document was drafted in accordance with the editorial rules of the ISO/IE
28、C Directives, Part 2 (see www.iso.org/directives).Attention is drawn to the possibility that some of the elements of this document may be the subject of patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights. Details of any patent rights identified during the
29、development of the document will be in the Introduction and/or on the ISO list of patent declarations received (see www.iso.org/patents).Any trade name used in this document is information given for the convenience of users and does not constitute an endorsement.For an explanation on the meaning of
30、ISO specific terms and expressions related to conformity assessment, as well as information about ISOs adherence to the WTO principles in the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) see the following URL: Foreword - Supplementary informationThe committee responsible for this document is ISO/TC 67, Materia
31、ls, equipment and offshore structures for petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries.This first edition of ISO/TR 12489 belongs of the family of reliability related standards developed by ISO/TC 67: ISO 14224, Petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries Collection and exchange of re
32、liability and maintenance data for equipment ISO 20815, Petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries Production assurance and reliability management ISO 2013 All rights reserved vPD CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016ISO/TR 12489:2013(E)IntroductionSafety systems have a vital function in petroleum, petroch
33、emical and natural gas industries where safety systems range from simple mechanical safety devices to safety instrumented systems.They share three important characteristics which make them difficult to handle:1) They should be designed to achieve good balance between safety and production. This impl
34、ies ahigh probability of performing the safety action as well as a low frequency of spurious actions.2) Some of their failures are not revealed until relevant periodic tests are performed to detect andrepair them.3) A given safety system rarely works alone. It generally belongs to a set of several s
35、afety systems (so-called multiple safety systems) working together to prevent accidents.Therefore improving safety may be detrimental to dependability and vice versa. These two aspects should therefore, ideally, be handled at the same time by the same reliability engineers. However, in reality they
36、are generally considered separately and handled by different persons belonging to different departments. Moreover this is encouraged by the international safety standards, which exclude dependability from their scopes, and the international dependability (see 3.1.1) standard, which excludes safety f
37、rom theirs. This may lead to dangerous situations (e.g. safety system disconnected because of too many spurious trips) as well as high production losses.The proof of the conservativeness of probabilistic calculations of safety systems is generally required by safety authorities. Unfortunately, manag
38、ing the systemic dependencies introduced by the periodic tests to obtain conservative results implies mathematical difficulties which are frequently ignored. The impact is particularly noticeable for redundant safety systems and multiple safety systems. Awareness of these challenges is important for
39、 reliability engineers as well as safety managers and decision makers, utilizing reliability analytical support.Most of the methods and tools presently applied in reliability engineering have been developed since the 1950s before the emergence of personal computers when only pencil and paper were av
40、ailable. At that time the reliability pioneers could only manage simplified models and calculations but this has completely changed because of the tremendous improvement in the computation means achieved over the past 30 years. Nowadays, models and calculations which were once impossible are carried
41、 out with a simple laptop computer. Flexible (graphical) models and powerful algorithms based on sound mathematics are now available to handle “industrial size” systems (i.e. many components with complex interactions). This allows the users to focus on the analysis of the systems and assessment of r
42、esults, rather than on the calculations themselves. All the approaches described in this Technical Report have been introduced in the petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries as early as the 1970s where they have proven to be very effective. They constitute the present time state-of-the-a
43、rt in reliability calculations. Nevertheless some of them have not been widely disseminated in this sector although they can be of great help for reliability engineers to overcome the problems mentioned above. This is particularly true when quantitative reliability or availability requirements need
44、confirmation and/or when the objective of the reliability study lay beyond the scope of the elementary approaches.The present document is a “technical” report and its content is obviously “technical”. Nevertheless, it only requires a basic knowledge in probabilistic calculation and mathematics and a
45、ny skilled reliability engineer should have no difficulties in using it.vi ISO 2013 All rights reservedPD CEN ISO/TR 12489:2016 ISO/TR 12489:2013(E)TECHNICAL REPORT Petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries Reliability modelling and calculation of safety systems1 ScopeThis Technical Report
46、 aims to close the gap between the state-of-the-art and the application of probabilistic calculations for the safety systems of the petroleum, petrochemical and natural gas industries. It provides guidelines for reliability and safety system analysts and the oil and gas industries to: understand the
47、 correct meaning of the definitions used in the reliability field; identify the safety systems which may be concerned, the difficulties encountered when dealing with reliability modelling and calculation ofsafety systems, the relevant probabilistic parameters to be considered; be informed of effecti
48、ve solutions overcoming the encountered difficulties and allowing to undertakethe calculations of relevant probabilistic parameters; obtain sufficient knowledge of the principles and framework (e.g. the modelling power andlimitations) of the well-established approaches currently used in the reliabil
49、ity field: analytical formulae;1213 Boolean: reliability block diagrams;4 fault trees;5 sequential: event trees,8cause consequence diagrams10and LOPA;9 Markovian;6 Petri nets;7 obtain sufficient knowledge of the principles of probabilistic evaluations: analytical calculations (e.g. performed on Boolean or Markovian models);123 and Monte Carlo simulation (e.g. performed on Petri nets7); select an approach suitable with the complexity of the related safety system and the reliability studywhich is undertaken;
