1、CIRCULAR 307-AT/129 2003-2006 Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authority INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license
2、 from IHS-,-,-Published in separate English, Arabic, French, Russian and Spanish editions by the International Civil Aviation Organization. All correspondence, except orders and subscriptions, should be addressed to the Secretary General. Orders should be sent to one of the following addresses, toge
3、ther with the appropriate remittance (by bank draft, cheque or money order) in U.S. dollars or the currency of the country in which the order is placed. Credit card orders (American Express, MasterCard and Visa) are accepted at ICAO Headquarters. International Civil Aviation Organization. Attention:
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8、ter International Limited, Room 434B, Hongshen Trade Centre, 428 Dong Fang Road, Pudong, Shanghai 200120 Egypt. ICAO Regional Director, Middle East Office, Egyptian Civil Aviation Complex, Cairo Airport Road, Heliopolis, Cairo 11776 France. Directeur rgional de IOACI, Bureau Europe et Atlantique Nor
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14、in du Lacuez 41, CH-1807 Blonay Thailand. ICAO Regional Director, Asia and Pacific Office, P.O. Box 11, Samyaek Ladprao, Bangkok 10901 United Kingdom. Airplan Flight Equipment Ltd. (AFE), la Ringway Trading Estate, Shadowmoss Road, Manchester M22 5LH Tlphone: +221 839 9393; Fax: +221 823 6926; Sitat
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17、Web: http:/ 2/05 Catalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids Issued annually, the Catalogue lists all publications and audio-visual training aids currently available. Monthly supplements announce new publications and audio-visual training aids, amendments, supplements, reprints, et
18、c. Available free from the Document Sales Unit, ICAO. Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Foreword Introduction 1. This circular, The World of Civil Aviation - 20
19、03 to 2006, is the twelfth in an annual series of publications covering recent and future developments in civil aviation; the developments for the years 2002 to 2004 were published in Circular 299. Compared to recent editions, this one is re-structured and condensed. It focuses on the developments i
20、n air transport in 2003 and on medium-term traffic and financial forecasts through to the year 2006. In the present circular, Part 1 reviews air traffic and financial results in the year 2003 and presents the years major developments in or affecting international civil aviation; Part 2 analyses tren
21、ds in airline traffic and financial results along with factors underlying air traffic demand over the 1993-2003 period and presents global and regional forecasts of scheduled passenger traffic and basic global airline financial trends through to 2006. Sources 2. Extensive aviation statistics may be
22、found in the various ICAO Digests of Statistics and a dedicated ICAO aviation statistics Web site (). In addition to these, sources of information for The World of Civil Aviation include relevant and most recently available statistical publications of the United Nations (UN); BACK Aviation Solutions
23、 fleet and airline schedule databases; the Airports Council International (ACI); the Air Transport Association (ATA); the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA); the Association of European Airlines (AEA); Avmark Inc.; the International Air Transport Association (IATA); the International Moneta
24、ry Fund (IMF); the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD); the United States Department of Transportation (DOT); the World Bank (WB); and the WEFA Group (formerly known as Wharton Econometrics Forecasting Associates). 3. Another source of information used for The World of Civi
25、l Aviation is the large and constantly updated collection of research material on hand at ICAO, including completed ICAO studies, periodical and occasional publications of national administrations and international organizations, studies prepared by research agencies and individuals, and the aviatio
26、n press. Finally, an information collection exercise specifically for The World of Civil Aviation was carried out through the seven ICAO Regional Offices. 4. request from: A Catalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids is available on THE WORLD OF CIVIL AVIATION - 2003-2006 (0 Copyr
27、ight International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-(10 FOREWORD International Civil Aviation Organization Attention: Document Sales Unit 999 University Street Montral, Quebec Canada
28、H3C 5H7 Telephone: (514) 954-8022 SITA: YULADYA Facsimile: (514) 954-6769 E-mail: salesicao.int 5. The statistical data for 2003 appearing in this circular are to be considered as preliminary: experience shows that the margin of error for world totals is probably less than 2 per cent, except in the
29、case of operational results where it may be considerably higher. 6. Unless otherwise noted: a) all statistical data are applicable to ICAO Contracting States (188 at the end of 2003); b) regional breakdowns are by ICAO statistical region; c) traffic statistics are for scheduled services of commercia
30、l air carriers; d) total airline financial statistics relate to scheduled as well as non-scheduled operations of commercial air carriers; e) the expression “tonne-kilometre” means metric tonne-kilometre; f) the word “billion“ means one thousand million; and g) all references to monetary units made i
31、n this circular mean “United States (U.S.) cents” for “cents” and “US. dollars” for “$”. ICAO CIRCULAR 307 Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-Table of Contents P
32、age PART I . CIVIL AVIATION IN THE YEAR 2003 3 CHAPTER 1 . AIR CARRIERS AND THEIR FLEETS . Airline traffic and financial results Scheduled traffic: world Scheduled traffic: regions of airline registration Non-scheduledtraffic Airline financial results: world World airline consolidated balance sheet
33、Airline financial results: regions of airline registration . Economic regulation . Bilateral agreements and negotiations . Regional regulatory developments . Trade in services developments . National liberalization policies Fair competition State aid Consumer protection Airport access Ownership, all
34、iances and cooperation Privatization . National consolidation . Transnational ownership . Alliances and cooperation Airline business models Low-cost carriers . Network carriers . Fares and rates Tariff establishment . Tariff developments . Product distribution . Computer reservation systems (CRS) .
35、Electronic ticketing . Travel agents Internet . Fleets . Orders and deliveries Composition . 3 3 4 7 7 9 10 11 11 12 15 15 16 17 17 17 19 19 19 19 21 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 30 30 30 THE WORLD OF CIVIL AVIATION . 2003-2006 (111) Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided b
36、y IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-(IV TABLE OF CONTENTS Page CHAPTER 2 . AIRPORTS AND AIR NAVIGATION SERVICES 32 Airports . Major airport projects . Management and organization of airports . Airport traffc Financial situat
37、ion of airports . Air navigation facilities and services . Management and organization Financial situation of air navigation services providers . Communications. navigation and surveillance (CNS) Air traffic management (ATM) Aerodromes Aeronautical information and charts services Aeronautical meteor
38、ology . Search and rescue Airborne collision avoidance system (ACAS II) provisions and operational procedures Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) . Instrument flight procedure design Personnel licensing Flight safety and Human Factors . Training . 32 32 32 33 35 36 36 37 37 38 39 39 40 40 41 41 41
39、 43 43 43 CHAPTER 3; USER AND PUBLIC INTEREST 44 Aviation safety . Scheduled services Non-scheduled services Safety oversight Aviation security . Air carrier liability Facilitation Machine readable travel documents (MRTDs) . Other developments in facilitation . Environmental protection Aircraft nois
40、e Aircraft engine emissions Aviation medicine . 44 44 44 47 48 52 52 52 53 54 54 54 55 ICA0 CIRCULAR 307 Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-TABLE OF CONTENTS (VI
41、 Page PART II - AIRLINE TRAFFIC AND FINANCIAL TRENDS AND FORECASTS CHAPTER 4. TRENDS IN AIRLINE TRAFFIC AND FINANCIAL RESULTS 59 Airline traffic: world 59 Airline traffic: regions of airline registration 59 Airline financial results: world. . 62 Airline financial results: regions of airline registra
42、tion. . 64 CHAPTER 5. TRENDS IN FACTORS UNDERLYING AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND 70 Global and regional economic and demographic trends 70 Airline productivity, input prices, financial performance and airline passenger yields. . 76 CHAPTER 6. FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND MAIN ASSUMPTIONS. 81 CHAPTER 7. AIRLINE TRA
43、FFIC AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS 83 Airline traffic forecasts 83 Global 83 Regions of airline registration. 83 Global airline financial forecast . 85 APPENDIX METHODOLOGY FOR TRAFFIC FORECASTS . 93 TABLES Table 1-1 Table 1-2 Table 1-3 Table 1-4 Table 1-5 Table 1-6 Table 1-7 Table 1-8 Table 1-9 Table 1-1
44、0 Table 1-11 Table 1-12 Table 1-13 Scheduled services of airlines of ICAO Contracting States (2003/2002). . Scheduled traffic by region of airline registration - 2003 Growth of scheduled traffic by region of airline registration - World (2003/2002) (annual percentage change) . Estimated internationa
45、l non-scheduled revenue passenger traffic (2002 and 2003) . Consolidated balance sheet, Scheduled airlines of ICAO Contracting States (end of fiscal years 1994, 2001 and 2002). . Bilateral “open skies” agreements (1992 to 2003). . Regional/plurilateral agreements and arrangements . Examples of State
46、 aid in 2003 . State-owned airlines targeted for partial or full privatization - 2003 . . Global alliances . Regulatory actions on proposed alliances Main aircraft types ordered and delivered (2003). . Commercial aircraft fleet in active service (year end 1994, 2002, 2003) . 4 5 6 8 10 13 14 18 20 2
47、1 23 31 31 THE WORLD OF CIVIL AVIATION - 2003-2006 Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-(VI TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Table 2-1 Table 2-2 Total traffic at top-25 airp
48、orts - World (2003 and 2002). International traffic at top-25 airports - World (2003 and 2002) 34 35 Table 3-1 Table 3-2 Accidents of aircraft with a certificated maximum take-off mass of more Acts of unlawful interference (1984 to 2003). . than 2 250 kg involving passenger fatalities on scheduled air services. . 45 49 Table 4-1 Table 4-2 Table 4-3 Total international and domestic revenue traffic - World (1993 - 2003) (scheduled services of airlines of ICAO Contracting States) . International revenue traffic - World (1993 - 2003) (scheduled services
