1、FUTURE ENERGY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGESThomas W. KerlinEveryone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.Attributed both to former Senator Patrick D. Moynihanand to former Secretary of Defense James R. Schlesingerto live on the earths energy income rather than its energy capital.Isa
2、ac AsimovIt is quite evident, though, that this squandering cannot go on indefinitely, for geological investigations prove our fuel stores to be limited. So great has been the drain on them of late years that the specter of exhaustion is looming up threateningly in the distance.Nikolai Tesla (1931)K
3、erlin-Energy2012.book Page i Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMKerlin-Energy2012.book Page ii Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMFUTURE ENERGY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGESThomas W. KerlinKerlin-Energy2012.book Page iii Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMNoticeThe information presented in this p
4、ublication is for the general education of the reader. Because nei-ther the author nor the publisher has any control over the use of the information by the reader, both theauthor and the publisher disclaim any and all liability of any kind arising out of such use. The reader isexpected to exercise s
5、ound professional judgment in using any of the information presented in a particularapplication.Additionally, neither the author nor the publisher has investigated or considered the effect of any pat-ents on the ability of the reader to use any of the information in a particular application. The rea
6、der isresponsible for reviewing any possible patents that may affect any particular use of the information pre-sented.Any references to commercial products in the work are cited as examples only. Neither the author northe publisher endorses any referenced commercial product. Any trademarks or traden
7、ames referencedbelong to the respective owner of the mark or name. Neither the author nor the publisher makes any repre-sentation regarding the availability of any referenced commercial product at any time. The manufacturersinstructions on use of any commercial product must be followed at all times,
8、 even if in conflict with theinformation in this publication.Copyright 2013 International Society of Automation (ISA)All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2ISBN: 978-1-937560-28-7No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmi
9、tted in any form or by anymeans, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permissionof the publisher.ISA67 Alexander DriveP.O. Box 12277Research Triangle Park, NC 27709Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data in process.Kerlin-Energy2012.book
10、Page iv Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMvContentsAcknowledgment xvAbout the Author xviiPreface xixPart I: GETTING STARTEDChapter 1 Introduction to the Energy Story 31.1 The Energy Issues 51.2 Three Viewpoints 51.3 Success Stories 61.4 Getting Energy 71.5 Energy and the Environment 91.6 Making th
11、e Transformation 91.7 Preparing for the Energy Future 11References 11Chapter 2 Fundamentals 13The Main Points 152.1 Understanding Energy 152.2 Conservation of Energy 172.3 Energy and Power 172.4 Units of Measure 172.5 Forms of Energy 222.6 Energy Utilization 342.7 Energy Efficiency 372.8 Energy Bala
12、nces 392.9 A Little Chemistry 402.10 A Little Biology 462.11 Linear vs. Exponential Growth 482.12 Energy Information on the Internet 502.13 Energy Facts vs. Energy Fiction 52Exercises 52Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page v Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMContentsviChapter 3 Energy Production and Consum
13、ption 55The Main Points 573.1 Overview 583.2 World Energy Production and Consumption 593.3 U.S. Energy Production and Consumption 613.4 Oil Production and Consumption 633.5 Natural Gas Production and Consumption 673.6 Coal Production and Consumption 693.7 Uranium Production and Consumption 703.8 Ele
14、ctricity 713.9 Greenhouse Gas Release and Pollution from Energy Production 723.10 Energy Recoverable from Non-Renewable Resources 733.11 Interpretation 75References 76Exercises 76Part II: ENERGY SOURCESChapter 4 Fossil Fuels 81The Main Points 834.1 Introduction 844.2 Oil 864.3 Oil Sand 1024.4 Oil Sh
15、ale 1054.5 Gaseous Hydrocarbons 1074.6 Coal 1134.7 Synthetic Liquid Fuels 1194.8 Fossil Fuel Summary 124References 125Exercises 126Chapter 5 Renewables 129The Main Points 1315.1 Introduction 1315.2 The Solar Resource 1325.3 Useful Energy Derived from Sunlight 1375.4 Useful Energy from Non-Solar Sour
16、ces 1385.5 Using Renewables 138References 139Exercises 139Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page vi Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMContentsviiChapter 6 Solar Energy 141The Main Points 1436.1 Introduction 1436.2 Solar Heating 1446.3 Solar Electricity 1546.4 Looking Ahead 160References 161Exercises 161Chapt
17、er 7 Biofuels 163The Main Points 1657.1 Introduction 1657.2 Plants and Energy 1667.3 Plant Characteristics 1697.4 Biochemical Processes 1707.5 Thermochemical Processes 1747.6 Chemical Processes and Applications 1767.7 Hybrid Processes 1797.8 Biofuels Requiring No Processing 1817.9 Biomass-to-Biofuel
18、 Process Overview 1817.10 Looking Ahead 183References 184Exercises 184Chapter 8 Wind Energy 187The Main Points 1898.1 Introduction 1898.2 Wind Energy Potential 1908.3 Wind Energy Physics 1918.4 Wind Energy Machines 1928.5 Intermittency 1968.6 Wind Machine Siting 1978.7 Wind Energy Status and Prospec
19、ts 198References 199Exercises 199Chapter 9 Hydroenergy 201The Main Points 2039.1 Introduction 2039.2 Physics of Falling Water Energy 2049.3 Turbines and Generators 2059.4 Falling Water Hydroelectric Systems 206Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page vii Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMContentsviii9.5 Pumped
20、 Storage 2089.6 River Flow, Tidal Flow, and Ocean Current Energy Converters 2099.7 Wave Energy Converters 2119.8 Tide Energy Converters 2139.9 Hydroenergy, Environmental Effects, and Public Safety Concerns 2139.10 Hydroenergy and Load-Following 2149.11 Hydroenergy Contribution to Energy Needs 214Ref
21、erences 215Exercises 215Chapter 10 Geothermal Energy 217The Main Points 21910.1 Introduction 21910.2 Sub-Surface Conditions 22010.3 The Resource 22210.4 Hydrothermal Sources 22310.5 Enhanced Geothermal Systems 22410.6 Geothermal Energy for Heat and Electricity 22710.7 Environmental Effects 23010.8 H
22、eat Pumps 23110.9 Conclusions 232References 232Exercises 233Chapter 11 Nuclear Energy 235The Main Points 23711.1 Introduction 23811.2 Fission Reactors 23811.3 Safety 24311.4 Energy Costs and Environmental Impacts 25011.5 Proliferation 25211.6 Reactor Design Evolution 25311.7 Nuclear Fuel Supply 2621
23、1.8 Fusion 26311.9 Nuclear Energy in the Future 265References 266Exercises 266Chapter 12 Hydrogen 269The Main Points 27112.1 Introduction 271Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page viii Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMContentsix12.2 Hydrogen Properties 27312.3 Hydrogen Production 27612.4 Hydrogen Storage 28
24、212.5 Options for Hydrogen Production Sites 28312.6 Hydrogen Distribution 28412.7 Use of Hydrogen as a Fuel 28412.8 Energy Efficiency 28512.9 Hydrogens Future 286References 287Chapter 13 Energy Transport 289The Main Points 29113.1 Introduction 29213.2 Coal Transport 29213.3 Liquid Fuel Transport 292
25、13.4 Gaseous Fuel Transport 29413.5 Electricity Transport 29713.6 Environmental Issues 30313.7 Overview 304References 304Exercises 305Part III: ENERGY DEMANDChapter 14 Population and Energy Demand 309The Main Points 31114.1 Introduction 31114.2 Population History 31214.3 Exponential Population Growt
26、h 31314.4 The Demographic Transition and Population Stabilization 31414.5 Total Fertility Rates 31514.6 Future Population Estimates 31614.7 Energy Implications 31714.8 The Bottom Line 319References 319Exercises 319Chapter 15 Residential Energy Use 321The Main Points 32315.1 Introduction 32415.2 Resi
27、dential Energy Consumption 32515.3 Space Heating and Cooling Systems 330Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page ix Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMContentsx15.4 Water Heaters 34115.5 Lighting and Appliances 34315.6 Local Electrical Energy Production 34615.7 Building Features and Lifestyles 34715.8 Possibili
28、ties 35015.9 Commentary 352References 352Chapter 16 Commercial Energy Use 355The Main Points 35716.1 Introduction 35716.2 Commercial Energy Use 35816.3 Capital Investment Incentives and Barriers 36116.4 Reducing Commercial Energy Consumption 36316.5 Trends 36316.6 Possibilities 36416.7 Commentary 36
29、5References 365Exercises 366Chapter 17 Industrial Energy Use 369The Main Points 37117.1 Introduction 37117.2 Consumption by Energy Type 37217.3 Consumption by Use 37317.4 Industry-Specific Consumption 37517.5 Industrial Energy Consumption and the U.S. Economy 37617.6 Supply Side Opportunities for Re
30、ducing or Modifying Energy Consumption 37717.7 Reinventing Industrial Processes 37917.8 What Can I Do? 380References 380Exercises 381Chapter 18 Transportation Energy Use 383The Main Points 38518.1 Introduction 38618.2 Transportation Energy Consumption 38718.3 Vehicle Statistics 39018.4 Vehicles with
31、 Internal Combustion Engines 39318.5 Electric Vehicles 39618.6 Hybrid Vehicle Status 40518.7 Gas Power 405Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page x Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMContentsxi18.8 Future Transportation Energy 405References 406Exercises 407Chapter 19 Energy and Climate Change 411The Main Point
32、s 41319.1 Introduction 41419.2 Physics of the Greenhouse Effect 41419.3 The Greenhouse Gases 41619.4 The Greenhouse Effect 41919.5 The Greenhouse Debate 42019.6 Mitigation 42619.7 Other Environmental Effects 42819.8 Conclusions 429References 430Exercises 431Chapter 20 Energy Conservation and Efficie
33、ncy 433The Main Points 43520.1 Introduction 43520.2 Individual Actions 43620.3 Business and Industry Actions 44420.4 Government Actions 44520.5 How Individual Citizens Use Energy 44620.6 The Bottom Line 448References 448Exercises 449Part IV: CREATING SUSTAINABLE ENERGYChapter 21 Energy, Economics, a
34、nd Government 453The Main Points 45521.1 Introduction 45521.2 Energy Production 45621.3 Population 45621.4 Per Capita Consumption 45621.5 Economics 45721.6 Government 459References 461Chapter 22 Summing Up 463Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page xi Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMContentsxiiAPPENDICESApp
35、endix A: Mass and Weight 473Appendix B: Conversion Factors 479Appendix C: Fuel Heating Values 485Appendix D: Stirling Engines 487Appendix E: Energy-related Websites 493Appendix F: Oil Depletion Analysis: The Hubbert Solution 497Appendix G: Solar Radiation 507Appendix H: Orientation of Solar Collecto
36、rs 519Appendix I: Photovoltaics 527Appendix J: Radiation Absorption Physics 531Appendix K: Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 537Appendix L: Triglycerides 549Appendix M: Bioethanol 553Appendix N: Biobutanol 565Appendix O: Biomethane 567Appendix P: Physics of Falling and Moving Fluids 569Kerlin-Energy20
37、12.book Page xii Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMContentsxiiiAppendix Q: Energy Use In Specific Industries 577Glossary 591Index 615Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page xiii Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMKerlin-Energy2012.book Page xiv Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMxvAcknowledgmentThanks to Na
38、ncy for gracefully tolerating the time spent studying, learning,and writing.Randy Gentry and David Brill of The Institute for a Secure and SustainableEnvironment at The University of Tennessee provided essential encourage-ment and support.Lorna Keathley prepared many of the illustrations. Her expert
39、 and profes-sional work enhance the book.Friends and colleagues reviewed various parts of the book. Special thanks toGilles Zwingelstein, Ned Rosen, Tom Shannon, Lee Riedinger, Belle Upad-hyaya, Larry Miller, Paul Stevens, Rafael Perez, Syd Ball, and Joe Perona.Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page xv Thursda
40、y, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMKerlin-Energy2012.book Page xvi Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMxviiAbout the AuthorTom Kerlin retired as head of the Nuclear Engineering Department at theUniversity of Tennessee in 1998, after serving on the faculty for 33 years.His professional interests include in
41、strumentation, nuclear reactor simula-tion, and dynamic testing for model validation. He has published exten-sively on these topics.In addition to his university service, Dr. Kerlin founded a spin-off com-pany, Analysis and Measurement Services Corp., to provide the nuclearindustry with the testing
42、capability that he invented for safety system sen-sors. Dr. Kerlins method has been used hundreds of times in nuclear powerplants in the U.S. and around the world.Upon retiring, Dr. Kerlin studied the literature on energy production anduse and concluded that there was a need for a comprehensive book
43、 on ourfuture options that even non-specialists would understand. This book is theresult.Kerlin-Energy2012.book Page xvii Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMKerlin-Energy2012.book Page xviii Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMxixPREFACEA revolution in energy production and use is upon us. Huge cha
44、nges arestarting to rumble through our lives. We cannot avoid these changes, but wecan manage them if we approach them in an informed way.Our current dependence on fossil fuels for most of our energy must bereduced or eliminated because of resource depletion and the environmentaleffects of fossil fu
45、el combustion.This book offers no prescriptions for achieving a desirable energy future.Instead, it presents the scientific and technical information needed to evalu-ate our options for intelligent energy production and use.Everyone uses energy, and many are appropriately concerned about futureenerg
46、y cost, availability, and environmental impact. Some are content torely on what the “experts” tell them. Others want to know enough abouthow energy systems work to be able to make their own assessments. Servingthis group is the focus of this book.In order to understand energy production and use, it
47、is necessary to buildon a foundation of indisputable facts. This requires some consideration ofbasic science, but nothing beyond that science which is taught in highschools. Science tells us what is possible and, probably more importantly,what is impossible. Science also provides the framework for o
48、btaining quan-titative evaluations of possibilities in energy production and use. Without abasis in science, and without the use of scientific principles to generatenumerical assessments, statements about energy production and use mustbe viewed as uninformed opinion rather than established fact.It i
49、s expected that this book will be used in survey courses about energy inuniversities and colleges. The book also should serve interested citizens whowant to learn about energy and energy professionals who want to learnabout energy options outside their specialty. An effort was made to presentthe science and technology in a simple and intuitive way. When detailedKerlin-Energy2012.book Page xix Thursday, February 14, 2013 12:21 PMPREFACExxinformation was considered necessary for readers who wish to see the basisfor assertions in the main text
