1、BSI Standards PublicationPD ISO/TR 16158:2013Space systems Avoidingcollisions with orbiting objectsCopyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:201
2、3 PUBLISHED DOCUMENTNational forewordThis Published Document is the UK implementation of ISO/TR16158:2013.The UK participation in its preparation was entrusted to TechnicalCommittee ACE/68/-/3, Space systems and operations - Operationsand Ground Support.A list of organizations represented on this co
3、mmittee can beobtained on request to its secretary.This publication does not purport to include all the necessaryprovisions of a contract. Users are responsible for its correctapplication. The British Standards Institution 2014. Published by BSI StandardsLimited 2014ISBN 978 0 580 69952 8ICS 49.140C
4、ompliance with a British Standard cannot confer immunity fromlegal obligations.This Published Document was published under the authority of theStandards Policy and Strategy Committee on 28 February 2014.Amendments issued since publicationDate Text affectedCopyright British Standards Institution Prov
5、ided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013 ISO 2013Space systems Avoiding collisions with orbiting objectsSystmes spatiaux vitement des collisions avec les objets en orbiteTECHNICAL RE
6、PORTISO/TR16158First edition2013-12-01Reference numberISO/TR 16158:2013(E)Copyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013ISO/TR 16158:2013(E)ii I
7、SO 2013 All rights reservedCOPYRIGHT PROTECTED DOCUMENT ISO 2013All rights reserved. Unless otherwise specified, no part of this publication may be reproduced or utilized otherwise in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, or posting on the internet or an intrane
8、t, without prior written permission. Permission can be requested from either ISO at the address below or ISOs member body in the country of the requester.ISO copyright officeCase postale 56 CH-1211 Geneva 20Tel. + 41 22 749 01 11Fax + 41 22 749 09 47E-mail copyrightiso.orgWeb www.iso.orgPublished in
9、 SwitzerlandCopyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013ISO/TR 16158:2013(E) ISO 2013 All rights reserved iiiContents PageForeword ivIntroduct
10、ion v1 Scope . 12 Normative references 13 Terms and definitions . 14 Collision avoidance workflow . 25 Perceiving close approaches 35.1 Orbit data . 35.2 Initial filtering 45.3 Eliminating infeasible conjunctions . 46 Determining potential collisions for warning and further action (close approach sc
11、reening) . 56.1 Symmetric keepout . 56.2 Bounding volume keepout 56.3 Probability techniques . 66.4 Maximum probability 76.5 Bounding volume based on probability 86.6 Comparison of techniques 97 Probability of survival 97.1 Trending. 107.2 Cumulative probability . 107.3 Bayesian assessment 118 Addit
12、ional information for judging courses of action 128.1 Maneuver capability 128.2 Spacecraft characteristics . 128.3 Quality of underlying orbit data 129 Consequence assessment .129.1 Guidance for population risk . 129.2 Traffic impacts 1310 Requirements for warning and information for avoidance 1310.
13、1 Orbit data 1310.2 Minimum data required for warning of and avoiding collisions .1310.3 Optional elements of information . 1411 Conjunction and collision assessment work flow and operational concept .15Bibliography .17Copyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI -
14、Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013ISO/TR 16158:2013(E)ForewordISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of prepar
15、ing International Standards is normally carried out through ISO technical committees. Each member body interested in a subject for which a technical committee has been established has the right to be represented on that committee. International organizations, governmental and non-governmental, in li
16、aison with ISO, also take part in the work. ISO collaborates closely with the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) on all matters of electrotechnical standardization.The procedures used to develop this document and those intended for its further maintenance are described in the ISO/IEC Di
17、rectives, Part 1. In particular the different approval criteria needed for the different types of ISO documents should be noted. This document was drafted in accordance with the editorial rules of the ISO/IEC Directives, Part 2 (see www.iso.org/directives). Attention is drawn to the possibility that
18、 some of the elements of this document may be the subject of patent rights. ISO shall not be held responsible for identifying any or all such patent rights. Details of any patent rights identified during the development of the document will be in the Introduction and/or on the ISO list of patent dec
19、larations received (see www.iso.org/patents). Any trade name used in this document is information given for the convenience of users and does not constitute an endorsement.For an explanation on the meaning of ISO specific terms and expressions related to conformity assessment, as well as information
20、 about ISOs adherence to the WTO principles in the Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) see the following URL: Foreword - Supplementary informationThe committee responsible for this document is ISO/TC 20, Aircraft and space vehicles, Subcommittee SC 14, Space systems and operations.iv ISO 2013 All righ
21、ts reservedCopyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013ISO/TR 16158:2013(E)IntroductionThis Technical Report describes the work flow for perce
22、iving and avoiding collisions among orbiting objects, data requirements for these tasks, techniques that can be used to estimate the probability of collision and guidance for executing avoidance maneuvres.The process begins with the best possible trajectory data, provided by satellite operators or s
23、ensor systems developed for this purpose. The orbits of satellites must be compared with each other to discern physically feasible approaches that could result in collisions. The trajectories so revealed must then be examined more closely to estimate the probability of collision. Should a collision
24、be likely within the criteria established by each satellite operator, the spectrum of feasible maneuvers must be examined.There are several different approaches to conjunction assessment. All have merits and deficiencies. Most focus on how closely satellites approach each other. This is often very u
25、ncertain since satellite orbits generally change more rapidly under the influence of non-conservative forces than observations of satellites in orbit can be acquired and employed to improve orbit estimates. Spacecraft operators require the fullness of orbit data in order to judge the credibility and
26、 quality of conjunction perception. This information includes the moment of time of the last elaboration of orbit (the epoch) and the standard time scale employed, state vector value or elements of orbit at this moment of time, the coordinate system description that presents the orbital data, the fo
27、rces model description that was used for orbital plotting, and information about the estimation errors of the orbital parameters. Essential elements of information for this purpose are specified in ISO 26900.There are also diverse approaches to estimating the probability that a close approach might
28、really result in a collision. This is a statistical process very similar to weather forecasting. Meteorologists no longer make definitive predictions. They provide the probability of precipitation, not whether it will rain. All conjunction assessment approaches are in some way founded in probabiliti
29、es. Probability of collision is also a highly desirable element of data. It must be accompanied by metadata that allows operators to interpret the information within their own operational procedures.How near satellites might be to each other and the probability they might collide if they were that c
30、lose are only two discriminants of potentially catastrophic events. Since the objective is that the satellite survives despite many potential close approaches, cumulative probability of survival is also important information. Responding precipitously to the close approach nearest at hand might only
31、delay the demise of the satellite or even contribute to a subsequent more serious event. The evolution of orbits toward close approaches and the cumulative probability that a satellite might survive for a period of time are also important.Finally, the state of each of the conjunction partners, their
32、 ability to maneuver or otherwise avoid contact, and the outcomes of past events that are similar guide courses of action. ISO 2013 All rights reserved vCopyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking perm
33、itted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013Copyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013Space systems Avoiding collisions with orbi
34、ting objects1 ScopeThis Technical Report is a guide for establishing essential collaborative enterprises to sustain the space environment and employ it effectively. This requires diligent collaboration among all who operate satellites.This Technical Report describes some widely used techniques for p
35、erceiving close approaches, estimating collision probability, estimating the cumulative probability of survival, and manoeuvring to avoid collisions.NOTE Satellite operators accept that all conjunction and collision assessment techniques are statistical. All suffer false positives and/or missed dete
36、ctions. The degree of uncertainty in the estimated outcomes is not uniform across all satellite orbits or all assessment intervals. No comparison within a feasible number of test cases can reveal the set of techniques that is uniformly most appropriate for all.2 Normative referencesThe following doc
37、uments, in whole or in part, are normatively referenced in this document and are indispensable for its application. For dated references, only the edition cited applies. For undated references, the latest edition of the referenced document (including any amendments) applies.ISO/TR 11233, Space Syste
38、ms Orbit determination and estimation Process for describing techniquesISO 26900, Space data and information transfer systems Orbit data messagesANSI/AIAA S-131-2010, Best Practices in Astronautics: PropagationAIAA G-043-1992, Guide to Developing Operational Concepts3 Terms and definitionsFor the pu
39、rposes of this document, the following terms and definitions apply.3.1conjunctionapparent meeting or passing of two or more objects in space3.2collisionact of colliding; an instance of one object striking another3.3covariancemeasure of how much variables change togetherNote 1 to entry: For multiple
40、dependent variables, a square, symmetric, positive definite matrix of dimensionality N N, where N is the number of variables.3.4encounter planeplane normal to the relative velocity at the time of closest approach3.5false alarmstatistical Type I error, when a statistical test fails to reject a false
41、null hypothesisTECHNICAL REPORT ISO/TR 16158:2013(E) ISO 2013 All rights reserved 1Copyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013ISO/TR 16158:20
42、13(E)3.6ICDInterface Control Documentformal means of describing the inputs and outputs of a system, the interfaces among systems, or the protocols among physical or electronic elements of an entity3.7operational conceptroles, relationships, and information flows among tasks and stakeholders and the
43、manner in which systems and processes will be used4 Collision avoidance workflowThe avoidance process begins with orbit data, the content of which is specified in ISO 26900. The data can be provided by collaborating satellite operators and from observers who are capable of viewing satellites. The na
44、ture of each object should also be known if possible. This information includes size, mass, geometry, and the operational state (for example, whether active or inactive). Finally, collision probability should be estimated based on the inevitable imprecision associated with orbit determination and ot
45、her hypotheses and measurements. Figure 1 depicts this top-level work flow.2 ISO 2013 All rights reservedCopyright British Standards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 161
46、58:2013ISO/TR 16158:2013(E)Figure 1 Top-level collision avoidance work flow5 Perceiving close approaches5.1 Orbit data5.1.1 InputsInputs to conjunction assessment are principally data that specify the trajectories of the objects of interest. These are one of three types of information: orbit element
47、s, ephemerides, or observations of satellites. Orbit elements in this context include parameters that describe the evolution of the trajectory and which can be used to estimate the trajectory in the future. They are derived from past observations ISO 2013 All rights reserved 3Copyright British Stand
48、ards Institution Provided by IHS under license with BSI - Uncontrolled Copy Not for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-,-PD ISO/TR 16158:2013ISO/TR 16158:2013(E)of satellites. Ephemerides are time-ordered sets of position and velocity within which one interpolates to estimate the position and velocity at intermediate times. Ephemerides should span the future time interval of interest, the equations of motion having been propagated by the provider. Observations are measurements of satel
