1、21st International Forum on Systems, Software, and COCOMO Cost Modeling Systems Engineering Cost Estimation: System-of-Systems Jon K. Ilseng November 8, 2006,Introduction Systems Engineering Definitions COSYSMO SECOST History SECOST Capabilities and Functionality SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-
2、of-Interest System-of-Systems Definition System-of-Systems Examples SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Systems SECOST Recommended Modifications Summary and Conclusions,Agenda,Introduction,Systems Engineering Cost Estimates Our customers require believable and accurate estimates OSD AT&L encourag
3、ing defense contractors to find “most accurate and consistent systems engineering cost estimation method” Critical that all 5 Raytheon Business Units (IIS, NCS, SAS, IDS, RMS) submit accurate, consistent, and believable cost estimates,Introduction,Systems Engineering Cost Estimates Various cost esti
4、mates used past 20 years for a “system-of-interest” Heuristic and rule of thumb Systems Engineer use knowledge less time-consuming than bottoms-up,Introduction,Systems Engineering Cost Estimates Motivation for improving SE Cost Estimates Improved estimation process consistency Improved accuracy, sta
5、keholder confidence due to historical basis Establish cost directly correlated with customer supplied requirements & sizing artifacts Parametric Cost Initiative software & hardware study performed a few years back Parametric estimates 25-35% less expensive to develop than “bottoms-up” Parametric est
6、imates every bit as accurate as “bottoms-up” Improved cost realism, more quantifiable risks Leaner, more supportable cost bids Increased Trade Space/Reduced Cycle Time Some cost estimates require short turn-around time Better CMMI Support CMMI model reveals several requirements for cost estimation m
7、odel as organization moves from Level 2 through Levels 4 & 5,Formal SE Cost Estimation Supports CMMI,Level 2 Project Planning Project Monitoring and Control Consistent WBS Size and Complexity Drivers Attribute-Based Estimates,Level 3 Integrated Project Monitoring Measurement Repository Monitor Attri
8、butes Actuals vs Plan,Level 4 Organizational Process Performance Quantitative Project Management Data Collection Parametric Cost Estimation Model Local Model Calibration,Level 5 Organizational Innovation and DeploymentSE Parametric Modeling Represents an Innovative Approach,Introduction,Introduction
9、,Parametric Cost Estimation Method October 2003 OSD SE Summit OSDs position is parametric-based estimates are recommended technique for preparing SE Cost Estimates Why Parametric Cost Estimation Method Provides a credible source Shortens cost estimating cycle times Creates more easily defended negot
10、iation position with customer Reduces customer-approval cycle times Uses historical data to improve quality of cost estimates Establishes greater consistency in cost estimating process DCAA/DCMA Government agencies very supportive of parametrics,Systems Engineering Definitions,Systems Engineering Va
11、rious definitions across SE Domain Applying scientific & engineering efforts to integrate related technical parameters System solution which satisfies customers expectations Interdisciplinary approach which involves integrating various engineering disciplines (i.e., electrical design, software desig
12、n, hardware design Notice something missing from these various definitions! No mention of cost estimating, however, does not diminish importance of it Pro-active aggressive SE process during program life-cycle Lower life cycle costs High system quality & enhanced technical solution Minimizes cost &
13、schedule overruns,Systems Engineering Definitions,System-of-Interest Defined by ISO/IEC 15288 architectural structures Comprised of interacting system elements Each system element independent of each other; can operate on their own Only provides real value when connected together to provide system f
14、unctions,COSYSMO,Consortium developed COnstructive SYStems Engineering Cost MOdel (COSYSMO) parametric model University of Southern California Center for Software Engineering (USC/CSE) USC/CSE Industrial Affiliates (including Raytheon) COSYSMO Cost Model Accurately estimates time & effort for SE tas
15、ks Parametric-based cost model Successfully defended August 2005 doctoral dissertation Open public domain model COSYSMO led by Dr. Barry Boehm, USC/CSE, developer of COCOMO family of software cost models COSYSMO drawn significant interest & support from INCOSE,SECOST - History,Raytheon Affiliate bui
16、lds initial version of USCs COSYSMO Early 2001 “MyCOSYSMO” leveraged off Garlands SWCOST COCOMO II based Proven tool - used at Garland and other IIS sites for 8+ years,SECOST developed as Raytheons Proprietary version of MyCOSYSMO Early 2004 Added back Company Proprietary functionality,SECOST deploy
17、ed at several Raytheon business units as a “second opinion” for proposals,Beginning development of COSYSMO Initiated by paper walked-on in 2000 by a Raytheon Affiliate to USC/CSE Joint effort by USC/CSE and INCOSE,SECOST Capabilities and Functionality,Suite of MS Excel spreadsheets Generates, docume
18、nts, and archives SE cost estimates within single process-focused framework Supports ROMs, budgetary estimates, formal proposal bids Supports multiple levels of estimate formality & complexity Consists of SECOST Framework USC COSYSMO is embedded engine Interfaces with standard Raytheon Pricing Syste
19、ms Supports Cost Volume & generates Basis-of-Estimates In-Process & Historical Data Collection Results used for local COSYSMO model calibrations Local COSYSMO model calibrations feeds USC COSYSMO,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest,Cost estimation mode prepare SE cost estimates for futur
20、e pursuits Data collection mode collects SE labor hours expended during program execution Current Raytheon NCS Systems Engineering Cost Estimation Enabler Using SECOST Size Drivers (Requirements, Interfaces, Algorithms, Operational Scenarios) Using SECOST Size Drivers Complexity Criteria Using SECOS
21、T EREQ Conversion and Reuse Factors,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest,Focus on Cost Estimation Mode Cost Estimation Mode 15 steps 1) Initialize Project Parameters (e.g. project name, period of performance, type of estimate) 2) Enter SE Contractor Work Breakdown Structure (e.g. Technica
22、l Management, IV&V, Requirements Definition & Validation) 3) Document Project Assumptions Assumptions always associated with SE cost estimates 4) Document and Register Project Risks Program risks always associated with SE cost estimates,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest (continued),Cos
23、t Estimation Mode 15 steps (continued) 5) Set COSYSMO Effort Multipliers (continued) Application Effort Multiplier evaluates specific COSYSMO application factors on scale from Very Low to Extremely High Requirements Understanding Architecture Understanding Level of Service Requirements Migration Com
24、plexity Number & Diversity of Installations/Platforms Number of Recursive Levels in Design Documentation to match lifecycle needs Technology Risk,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest (continued),Cost Estimation Mode 15 steps (continued) 5) Set COSYSMO Effort Multipliers (continued) Team E
25、ffort Multiplier evaluates specific COSYSMO team factors on scale from Very Low to Extremely High Stakeholder Team Cohesion Personnel/Team Capability Personnel Experience/Continuity Process Capability Multisite Coordination Tool Support 6) Determine Labor Distributions among Raytheon Salary Labor Gr
26、ades 7) Estimate Four SE Size Drivers System-Level Requirements Decompose system-of-interest objectives only requirements managed by SE not HW or SW,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest (continued),Cost Estimation Mode 15 steps (continued) 7) Estimate Four SE Size Drivers (continued) Syst
27、em-Level External & Internal Interfaces Functional interfaces (e.g. protocols or timing requirements) not physical interfaces (e.g. number of wires) Interfaces that involve SE for your defined system-of-interest Only count number of unique interface types not every interface System-Level Algorithms
28、Algorithm sources are functional block diagram, mode description document, system specification, etc. System-Level Operational Scenarios Typically quantified by number of system test thread packages, unique end-to-end tests, number of use cases 8) Determine Effort Hours Outputs total SE hours and eq
29、uivalent requirements (EREQs),SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest (continued),Cost Estimation Mode 15 steps (continued) 9) Time Phase SE Estimate Spread total SE hours among CWBS 10) Submit to Pricing Group Pricing analyst processes SECOST file (e.g. adds appropriate Raytheon Business Un
30、it, correct CLIN, other pricing variables) 11) Process Pricing Group Data After pricing analyst processes SECOST file, sent back to SE estimator to copy and paste process SECOST file into SECOST Worksheet 12) Conduct Internal Estimate Review Internal review among SE Estimator, Lead SE, Program Manag
31、er 13) Determine and Signoff Final Bid After internal SE Review completed & approved by SE Center Director, final cost estimate presented to Raytheon Senior Management,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Interest (continued),Cost Estimation Mode 15 steps (continued) 14) Finalize Management Bid Re
32、view Charts SECOST provides four management review package charts SE Labor Cost Summary Chart Past Program SE Sizing and Unit Cost Monte Carlo Output Sample Distribution Monte Carlo Output Cost “Probability of Success” 15) Archive the Estimate Most important step; provides rationale and data if ques
33、tions or issues are raised during cost estimation phase,System-of-Systems Definition,System-of-Systems (SoS) is not the same as a Family-of-Systems (FoS) FoS do not create capability beyond additive sum of member systems individual capabilities FoS belong to domain or product lines (e.g. family of m
34、issiles, family of aircraft) FoS lacks synergy of a SoS FoS do not acquire qualitatively new properties as result of its grouping U.S Department of Defense (DoD) SoS Definition “A SoS is a set or arrangement of interdependent systems that are related or connected to provide a given capability. The l
35、oss or any part of the system will significantly degrade the performance or capabilities of the whole. The development of a system of systems solution will involve trade space between the systems as well within an individual systems performance.”,System-of-Systems Definition,My thesis used the U.S.
36、DoD SoS definition SoS Characteristics Researched five main sources which truly defined SoS Addressing the System of Systems Challenge Paper Purdue University School of Aeronautics continues to be a living system,System-of-Systems Examples,U.S. DoD Programs SoS examples in commercial world (e.g. int
37、ernet) Focus on U.S. DoD Programs Raytheons primary customer is U.S. DoD DoD driving towards mandating “jointness for services (i.e. Air Force, Army, Navy, Marine Corps) Current GWOT in other words a SoS,System-of-Systems Examples,Future Combat Systems SoS SoSCOE Software that allows various systems
38、 to operate seamlessly Approximately 35 million lines of code Battle Command Software Consists of four software packages Mission Planning & Preparation, Situation Understanding, Battle Command & Mission Execution, Warfighter-Machine Interface Communications & Computers FCS SoS connected to C4ISR net
39、work by multilayered Communications & Computer network Network provides secure access to information sources over extended distances & complex terrain ISR Distributed & networked array of ISR Sensors Networked Logistics Systems Integrates logistics into C4ISR network,System-of-Systems Examples,Netwo
40、rked SoS which develops combat power, sustainability, agility, and versatility for full spectrum military operations,Networked SoS manned by soldiers & fighting team of teams,System-of-Systems Examples,DoD Distributed Common Ground System SoS Combination of U.S. Air Force, Army, Navy, and Marine Cor
41、ps ground and surface systems Each services DCGS consists of elements and processes, exploits, and posts ISR sensor data Each services DCGS consists of legacy systems DoD currently preparing migration plans to integrate all service DCGS elements Achieves a net-centric DCGS Integration of services DC
42、GS is referred to as DoD DCGS SoS DoD mandated DCGS SoS migrate to net-centric warfare & net-centric DCGS Enterprise,System-of-Systems Examples,Improves accuracy and timeliness of intelligence provided to warfighter,Promotes standards-based ISR infrastructure,System-of-Systems Examples,Land Warrior
43、SoS High-tech SoS which provides U.S. Army soldier enhanced capabilities Integrated fighting system which helps increase soldiers Lethality Battle Command Compatibility Survivability Mobility Awareness Situational Awareness Combat effectiveness,System-of-Systems Examples,Land Warrior SoS Consists of
44、 following subsystems Weapon Subsystem Integrates weapon-mounted sensors (multifunction laser, daylight video sight, thermal weapon sight) Soldier Control Unit Provides primary user interface to system functions Personal Area Network Cables Distributes power & data through the system Personal Clothi
45、ng & Individual Equipment Consists of utility belt & subsystem pouches Computer/Master Hub Subsystem Provides control of system functions,System-of-Systems Examples,Land Warrior SoS Consists of following subsystems Power Source Subsystem Provides centralized power from dual disposable or rechargeabl
46、e batteries CommsNet Radio Subsystem Provides transmit/receive voice & data capability Navigation Subsystem Provides position location data to the soldier & time reference to system Helmet Subsystem Provides full-color display for computer interface,System-of-Systems Examples,NASA Exploration SoS Re
47、presents U.S. Presidents vision for U.S. space exploration New capabilities & systems enabling safe & successful human & robotic missions,System-of-Systems Examples,NASA Exploration SoS Consists of following subsystems Crew Transportation System Flight elements which deliver human crew from Earth to
48、 mission destination & return crew safely to Earth Cargo Delivery System Delivers all non-crew exploration vehicle flight elements to accomplish human exploration objectives Ground Support System Provides all common ground-based capabilities needed to execute exploration missions Robotic Precursor S
49、ystem Provides measurements, technology, & demonstrations in advance of human missions In-Space Support System Encompasses capabilities provided by space-based infrastructure elements (e.g. communications, navigation, surveillance) Destination Surface System Encompasses all elements necessary to enable long-duration human exploration mission,SECOST Cost Estimation Mode: System-of-Systems,Can SECOST be used for SoS Yes, with recommended modifications results in stovepipe solutions SoS IV&V More complex than system-of-interest IV&V,
