1、Tanzanias experience in industrial development and comparative analysis with other countries,Milasoa Chrel-RobsonAfrica Section, Division for Africa, Least Developed Countries and Special Programmes, UNCTAD,Workshop on Industrial Development and Globalisation 17 May 2011,Structure of the session,Mai
2、n objective: towards an industrial diagnosis of TanzaniaI. Brief History of industrial development in TanzaniaII. Data collection for comparative analysis III. The possibility of structural change 3-4 minutes per slide including class discussion and questions,I. Brief history of industrial developme
3、nt in Tanzania,Perpectives from the literaturePerspectives from policy makersClass discussion,Brief history of industrial development in TanzaniaKey points: Identifying differing industrial performance across Tanzanias history.Identifying the role of the commodity economy in financing the industrial
4、 sector.,Brief history of industrial development in Tanzania (1),Industrial strategy at independence focused on: structural change and self reliance.Manufacturing to satisfy domestic needs before targeting export markets. Selected sectors were: food processing, textiles, clothing, footwear, building
5、 materials and materials and facilities to meet the requirements of education, health services etc.,Brief history of industrial development in Tanzania (2),Historical data available despite challenges in computation of reliable data on MVA.Industrial censuses in 1961, 1978 and 1989. more recently?Ta
6、nzania is a latecomer to the process of industrialisation. The production of industrial goods for the local market almost from scratch in the 1950s.,Brief history of industrial development in Tanzania (3),1964 1966: MVA doubled. With an average growth rate of more than 10 percent. 1966: growth rate
7、of 17.7%. Establishment of some factories: oil refinery, cement factory, sisal bag factories, blanket factory.1973: OIL CRISIS,Brief history of industrial development in Tanzania (4),1973: Industrial growth was lower than economic growth. Deterioration of the balance of payments. 1976: Industrial gr
8、owth improved. 1977: Coffee boom. Foreign exchange used to fund industrial activities. 1977-1978: MVA increased by 24 percent 1978: MVA deteriorated 1979: balance of payments deteriorated and Negative industrial growth rate between 1979 1984 After?,II. Data collection for comparative analysisKey poi
9、nts: Identifying relevant data for an industrial diagnosis of Tanzania.Situating Tanzanias industrial performance in the regional context.,Table 1: The regional situation: Contribution of Industry to GDP 1970-2008: Africa and East Africa performance,II. Data collection for comparative analysis (1),C
10、ommenting on table 2 on Manufacturing performance of African countries and ranking of Tanzania (on separate excel sheet),Data collection for comparative analysis (2),Identifying Tanzanias key selected sectors :based on industries relative growth potential (i.e. sectoral growth elasticity), consideri
11、ng the countrys stage of development and endowments (country size, resource endowments and population density).This is the purpose of group exercise 1.,Data collection for comparative analysis (3),Data collection for comparative analysis (4): making use of the UNCTAD/UNIDO framework,Data collection
12、for comparative analysis (5),International benchmarking: Identifying Tanzanias performance in the identified most relevant industries (i.e. the level of efficiency in each industry) in relation to the identified comparators,Data collection for comparative analysis (5),Comparators should include dyna
13、mically growing countries with similar endowment structures and a per capita income that is about 100 per cent higher than their own,Data collection for comparative analysis (6),among the selected industries, single out which domestic private firms have already entered spontaneously and try to ident
14、ify:(i) the obstacles that are preventing these firms from upgrading the quality of their products; or (ii) the barrier that limit entry to those industries by other private firms,III. The possibility of structural changeKey points: Introducing the use of the framework for industrial diagnosis and s
15、tructural change analysis to inform Tanzanias industrial policy.,In international benchmarking: Select benchmarks that more closely resemble the country as well as offers a vision for possibilities of structural change:Undertake structural change analysis based on three exogenous variables (country
16、size, resource endowments, population density). UNIDO is working on an extended version.,III. The possibility of structural change (1),Use the framework and include information on:industries relative effect on a countrys employment creation (i.e. sectoral employment elasticity), environmental sustai
17、nability, gender mainstreaming, and so forth.,d,The possibility of structural change (2),A comparative assessment of a countrys relative performance in the identified most relevant industries (i.e. the level of efficiency in each industry) in relation to the identified comparators,The possibility of
18、 structural change (3),A comparative assessment of the structure of a countrys manufacturing portfolio in relation to its identified comparatorsConduct a feasibility study to prioritize actions based on current capabilities and endowments.,The possibility of structural change (4),The possibility of
19、structural change (5),Beware of risk of fallacy of composition:Many countries with similar characteristics may choose to focus on the same sectorsGlobal demand structure may constantly change and will necessitate capacity to adapt,Use information from the industrial diagnostic to inform strategic choices for National Industrial Policy.Note: this is the purpose of group exercise 2 for group 1.,Next step,Thank you ! Source: recent joint research by UNCTAD and UNIDO Additional notes and references will be provided in final CD of the course.,
