1、Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum Viewing Business Implications of Technology trends Unifying, Big-Picture perspective Long-term view, “futurecasting”Neutral-ground for discussion among industry pl
2、ayers & MIT research sponsors Support personnel & Project Management,Technology Roadmapping (TRM),Innovation Observatories,15.795 Technology Roadmapping,Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost Bonsen Fall 2002This seminar will explore the purposes and development of Technology Roadmaps for systematically m
3、apping out possible development paths for various technological domains and the industries that build on them. Data of importance for such roadmaps include rates of innovation, key bottlenecks, physical limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate intent, and value chain and industry evolutionary
4、paths. The course will build on ongoing work on the MIT Communications Technology Roadmap project, but will explore other domains selected from Nanotechnology, Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics, Neurotechnology, Imaging & Diagnostics, etc. Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be off
5、ered.,(An example Masters Research Seminar),Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping,Observing Value Chain Evolution over time Language for discussion between management & technology world Structured basis for interaction Cross Value Chains, between academia & industry, spanning basic research through appli
6、cation Bridging between vertical “silos” of research e.g. MicroPhotonics LIDS Media Lab eBiz Center Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up (generally),Components of MITs Technology Roadmapping Effort,Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like mode
7、ls of the bullwhip effect) Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous version of the double helix in Fines Clockspeed book) Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize Porter-like analyses for players in the value chain) Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Associations roadmap b
8、uilt around Moores law) Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National, Cross Sector,Source: Fine, MIT,TRM Technology Domains,Established Semiconductors Photonics Genomics / Proteomics / Celleomics Wireless MEMS Smart Materials,Emerging Soft Lithography Neurotechnology Nanotechnology Organotechnolo
9、gy Biological Engineering Gerontechnology Autonomous Systems,Generalizing & Enriching Historic Technology & Demand Trends,Historical Efforts Moores Law Electronic Devices Sematech Roadmap Disk Drives Ongoing Optical Networking Wireless Future New technologies,Moores Law,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995
10、,2000,2005,2010,103,104,105,106,107,108,109,Transistors per chip,Year,?,Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999,Source: Fine, MIT,101,100,10-1,102,104,106,108,Number of chip components,Feature size (microns),1010,1012,1018,1014,1016,10-2,10-3,Classical Age,Historical Tren
11、d,SIA Roadmap,CMOS,Roadmap for Electronic Devices,Quantum Age,Quantum State Switch,Horst D. Simon,Source: Fine, MIT,International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 99,Source: Fine, MIT,Disk Drive Development 1978-1991,Disk Drive Generation14”8”5.25”3.5”2.5”,Dominant ProducerIBMQuantumSeagateConn
12、erConner,Dominant UsagemainframeMini-computerDesktop PCPortable PCNotebook PC,From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year while semiconductor density grew 50%/year. Disk Drive cost per megabyte in 1997 was $ .10,Approx cost per Megabyte$750$100$30$7$2,Source: Fine, MIT,Capacity,OC
13、12,OC48,OC192,Optical Networking,Time,OC768,Source: Fine, MIT,Optical Technology Evolution: Navigating the Generations with an Immature Technology,Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT & Corning,Source: Fine, MIT,Supply Chain Volatility Amplification: “The Bullwhip Effect”,Customer,Retailer,Distributor,Factory,Tier
14、1 Supplier,Information lags Delivery lags Over- and underordering Misperceptions of feedback Lumpiness in ordering Chain accumulations,SOLUTIONS: Countercyclical Markets Countercyclical Technologies Collaborative channel mgmt.(Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing),Equipment,Source: Fine, MIT,Supply Chain Vo
15、latility Amplification: Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip,“Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study,“ E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261.,Source: Fine, MIT,TRM Industry-Benefits
16、,Economic context for technology decisions & investments Lowering Risks for capital investments Not Stalins 5-year plans rather, coordination & collaboration, co-optition,TRM Literature,MicroPhotonics Center http:/mph-roadmap.mit.edu Example Theses http:/mitsloan.mit.edu/research/clockspeed/main.htm
17、l References http:/www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/,Other Roadmapping Efforts,ITRS International Technology Roadmapping for Semiconductors http:/ Electricity Technology Roadmap http:/ Steel Industry Technology Roadmap http:/www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm Lighting Technology Roadmap http:/www.eren.doe.g
18、ov/buildings/vision2020/ Robotics & Intelligent Machines RM http:/www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm,Generalizing & Quantifying Clockspeed,Benefits to comparing between Industries Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics Cross-species Benchmarking Quantify & Ultimately Model these Dynamics, improve theoretica
19、l understanding,TRM Class Goals,Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT researchers, & Industry Sponsors Across MIT research areas Cross Industry Benchmarking Partnered with Industrial Sponsors Attract students passionate about technology sector, however broadly or narrowly defined Committed
20、 to producing coherent & complete Tech Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester,What is Tech Roadmapping?,Trends - Statement of historic performance improvement and extrapolations into future Consensus Shared opinion about likely future developments Commitment - Shared willingness to pursue particul
21、ar technologies Co-Investment - Basis for agreement on pre-competitive research funding Understanding - Method of understanding broader socio-economic context of broad technology trends,Degree of Industry Aggregation?,Communications Roadmap Optical Communications MicroPhotonics Wireless Personal Are
22、a Networking Cellular G3, G4, G5 Medical Imaging MRI Functional MRI Nanotechnology Precision Engineering AFM Biological Engineering Bacterial Robotics,TRM Summer Plan,June Literature & Web review Draft course syllabus ID Guest speaker & researcher/collaborator connections Assemble Readings & web ref
23、erences PPT & graphics assembly Team-formation process Key MIT faculty & labs to engage July Refine syllabus Solidify guests Confirm Readings Industry-specific References, e.g. seminar seriesAugust Finalize above Ramp-up Promotion Posters Word of Mouth, buzzbuilding,Potential Academia Speakers,Kim K
24、imerling, MicroPhotonics Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech http:/web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS http:/www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/ Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI http:/hst.mit.edu/martinos/ Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics http:/www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html T
25、om Knight, AI Lab / Computation & Biology http:/www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.html,Potential Industry Speakers,John Santini, MicroCHIPS / MEMS Drug Delivery Systems Carmichael Roberts, SurfaceLogix / Soft Lithography Noubar Afeyan, Flagship / Biotech Paolo Gargini, Intel Fellow, Chair of Intl RM Commi
26、ttee http:/ http:/ with Communications RM Presentation from visitors/guests from other technologies; what they think Students form teams and pursue RMs on tech of their choice Project-based course,Syllabus,Intro, Overview, Case Examples, Expectations, Technology Themes MIT Communications Roadmapping
27、 Historic Efforts e.g. Sematech Roadmapping Expectations Biotech Speakers Infotech Speakers Tinytech Speakers Finale,Details to be hashed out,Two full-days foci, at end of semester All teams Think about how to make it Attend talks & seminar series in that tech sector, thats part of the course,One pa
28、ge briefing,Whats course Projects delivering value TRMs valuable for sponsors & labs Who are key people? Rope in key faculty,Connections,Ted PiepenrockPowertrain GM, Fuel Cell Lean Aero SD folks interested?Technology & Industry Roadmapping How take components & glue them together SD models for each, and mega modelOrchestration,Financing,Darpa Microphot, comm industry is fruitfly Defense aerospace, dinosaur Multiple industries interesting,todos,Pay Joost Lessard again Charlie 50% support?,
