1、The Automotive Industry and the Global Environment Dennis Schuetzle William Glaze Next 100 YearsThe Automotive Industry and the Global Environment The Next 100 Years Dennis Schuetzle William Glaze Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc. Warrendale, Pa. Copyright 1999 Ford Motor Company eISBN: 978-0-76
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4、9-$.50. SAE Order No. R-263Table of Contents Abstract 2 Introduction 3 Chapter 1 The Industrial Revolution and the Automobile 5 Chapter 2 Evolution of Environmental Awareness and Protection in the 20th Century 12 Chapter 3 Environmental and Energy Challenges of the 21st Century 20 Chapter 4 Future E
5、nvironmental Approaches and Methodologies33 Chapter 5 The “Global Revolution“ and the Automobile 47 Chapter 6 Conclusions 63 Acknowledgements 66 References 672 Abstract The first century of the automobile has had a profound effect on society, the economy, industry, technology, and the global environ
6、ment. One of the great challenges of the past century has been to minimize the potential impact of transportation systems on the global environment. The challenges of the next 100 years will be much greater than those of the first century, especially for the global, urban-centered economies of the n
7、ext century. During this next era, automotive companies will not only need to be concerned with the effect of transportation systems on the environment and natural resources but how sociological, cultural, economic and political factors may affect these systems. Some key imperatives of the 21st cent
8、ury will be to advocate global approaches to the establishment of international standards; champion consortia in cooperation with government, academia and industry; develop new approaches that integrate technical, social and economic solutions; balance free-market with regulatory approaches; support
9、 scientific research as needed to help develop sound environmental policies; and use life-cycle assessment models to help evaluate the potential environmental, economic and energy outcomes of transportation systems on a global basis. In this paper we focus on many of these issues, especially as they
10、 relate to developing countries such as China and their impact on energy resources and the environment. As the global resources of petroleum become depleted, there will be a gradual shift to other alternative fuel and energy sources. The use of electric power for transportation applications will bec
11、ome more attractive since this electricity can be generated from a wide array of sources, each of which can be easily feed into the worlds extensive electrical distribution systems. In order to effectively utilize emerging energy sources, global transportation companies will continue to accelerate t
12、he development of cost-effective and reliable technologies including alternative fuel vehicles, high-energy efficiency vehicles, small personal-use vehicles, electricycles and intelligent transportation systems. Personal transportation systems will become highly integrated with public transportation
13、 strategies. The energy efficient vehicles of the future will incorporate “hybrid-electric propulsion systems.“ Such systems may employ various combinations of technologies including: a solid-state energy storage system which may be electrochemical or thermal; a fuel tank to store liquid or gaseous
14、fuels; an internal combustion engine, heat engine or fuel cell stack; and a direct-drive electric motor. As has been the case in the 20th century, the ultimate success of these new technologies in the 21st century will be based primarily upon customer acceptance which includes value, functionality a
15、nd reliability.3 Introduction Evolution from the Industrial to the Global Revolution The 18th century was born amidst an explosion of human productivity referred to as the Industrial Revolution. During this period, which accelerated dramatically in the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries, new inventi
16、ons made it possible for industrial production to evolve from small cottage industries to larger factories. Mechanized production and assembly lines made it practical for workers to become more efficient, the prices of produced goods to drop, and formerly scarce items to become affordable to a much
17、larger proportion of the population. The steam engine, invented during the 1830s in England, was one of the most important developments of the Industrial Revolution. The steam engine provided a dramatic improvement in the way goods were manufactured and it also provided more efficient and faster mod
18、es of transportation of goods and people by train and ships. Engines also made the automobile and the truck possible, signaling the beginning of a new era. The internal combustion engine, together with oil and gasoline fuels, which were also produced by mass production methods, made it possible for
19、individuals and small groups of people to travel with unprecedented freedom. Industries grew up and increasingly utilized the motorized truck to replace horses. During the “First Revolution“ of the automobile, scientists, engineers, science fiction writers and the entertainment industry provided the
20、 world with many future visions of vehicles that are intelligent and able to carry on intellectual discussions; can operate in auto-pilot corridors on the ground or in the air; can accurately monitor their location and the location of other objects near the vehicle; could utilize a variety of energy
21、 resources and have little or no effect on the global environment. Some early predictions have come true such as the formation of suburbs around cities, while others such as rapid transit (trolley car) lines to all suburban areas (Walter, 1992) and auto-pilot corridors in the urban areas have not ye
22、t been fulfilled. The primary problem with these early predictions was that a total systems analysis was not carried out to determine the practicality of implementing such technologies. We now appreciate that there are many factors that can influence the acceptance of new technologies including cost
23、, safety, environmental and energy requirements, convenience, infrastructure demands, social needs, government requirements, demographics and many others.4 As we enter the next phase of the Industrial Revolution, which we believe will be a “Global Revolution“, we may ask how accurate will past and c
24、urrent visionaries be in their predicitions? How can the automobile industry meet the environmental and energy challenges of the future? The primary objective of this paper is to crack open the door of the future to help provide the reader with a glimpse of the exciting possibilities for automotive
25、industry and the travelers of the 21st century. At the beginning of this century, there was much experimentation. We are now entering a new century in which there will be a great period of change because of many new driving forces, two of which will be energy and the environment. Although scientists
26、 and engineers are working on the development of many new technologies, most of them have a low probability of becoming successful. However, a major success in any one of these technologies could change the future direction of all others. Historians often say that the lessons of the past can help pr
27、ovide a vision of the future and therefore reduce our chances of traveling down the wrong road. Chapter 1 briefly describes the relationship between the “Industrial Revolution“, the development of the automotive industry, and the important role that technology has played in the development of this i
28、ndustry. Chapters 2 and 3 present a perspective and prospective analysis on the potential effects of globalization, the environment and energy challenges, market economy growth, and population dynamics on the future automotive industry. The environmental and energy challenges developed from this ana
29、lysis are used to formulate several approaches and methodologies recommended in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 provides a future prospective on the second revolution of the automotive industry and the most likely scenarios for transportation technologies of the 21st century. These new transportation systems w
30、ill need to overcome future challenges by meeting the ever growing global demand for transportation goods and services while minimizing adverse energy, environmental and economic impacts. It is postulated that the successful implementation of these technologies will be based primary on value to the
31、customer in terms of cost, quality and the ability of the product to meet their needs. This paper was not meant to be exhaustive or provide an impression that the authors are possessed with clairvoyance. Each of the subjects included in this paper are covered in more detail by cited publications. Ho
32、wever, to our knowledge this is the first attempt by anyone to integrate and discuss most of the potential issues related to the automobile industry and the global environment - past, present and future.5 Chapter 1 The Industrial Revolution and the Automobile It was more than a century ago, when the
33、 worlds first automobile, the Benz Patent Motorwagen changed the course of transportation forever. The revolutionary three-wheeler built by Carl Benz in 1885 ignited the spark that started the auto industry. Henry Ford completed his first car, the Quadricycle, and took it for a drive in the middle o
34、f the night on June 4, 1896 (Figure 1-1). During the same year, the Duryea brothers assembled the first thirteen automobiles for sale to the public in France. These early vehicles symbolize research, technological innovation, invention, creativity and pragmatism some of the most important and fundam
35、ental tenets of todays automotive world. Figure 1-1 Henry Fords Quadricyele - 1896 In 1908, Henry Ford introduced the Model T and used the moving assembly line in 1913 to mass produce his vehicles. This increased the level of productivity allowed Mr. Ford to pay his workers $5.00/day, the highest wa
36、ge of any manufacturing job at that time. Through these mass production techniques, automobiles were made affordable to a growing middle class. These new vehicles, powered by the internal combustion engine, allowed6 more people to settle away from the centers of cities, and goods to be transported t
37、o areas not served by trains or ships. The building of better roads became an imperative, leading eventually to turnpikes and national highway systems that ultimately changed the way in which our society was geographically distributed. It is interesting that the Gentlemans Cycling Club of New york p
38、romptly traded in their bicycles for Model-Ts in 1913 (Figures 1-2 and 1-3)(Henry Ford Museum archives). Model Ts became increasingly visible on city streets as illustrated by the photograph in Figure 1-3. Figure 1-2 Gentlemans Cycling Club (New York - 1913) Figure 1-3 New Model T“s (New York - 1913
39、)7 Five years before the introduction of the Model T, another new technology-based industry was born. In 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright successfully tested the first airplane at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, powered also by an internal combustion engine. Henry Fords first venture into aviation came i
40、n 1909 when he financed the building of a plane with a 28 hp Model T engine (OCallaghan, 1993). In 1926, the first flight of a liquid-fueled rocket occurred, followed in eleven years by the first working turbine jet engine. The number of airplanes and rockets has not approached the number of automob
41、iles or trucks nor have they impacted individuals lives and the planets ecosystems as much as the automobile. However, they allowed us to see the planet with more of a global perspective than what we could see from the automobile. These technologies have lead to the development of satellites, which
42、have made possible a real- time perspective of our changing global ecosystem from space. As described later in this paper, satellites equipped with advanced sensors, imaging and communications systems will become an important technology to help solve the environmental and energy challenges of the 21
43、st century. The 20th century also saw the progression of the second phase of the industrial revolution, called by some the scientific or knowledge-based revolution. Through the accumulation of scientific knowledge, people have learned to harness matter and energy to develop entirely new materials; c
44、ommunicate with each other across large spaces; control machines and other inanimate objects; make mathematical calculations of immense proportions; handle large quantities of data efficiently; and even to transform matter into energy for useful purposes. In this century, we have seen new science le
45、ad to an explosion of new industrial and consumer products including the digital computer; the development of microwave and radio communications; and a whole new energy industry based on fission of atomic nuclei. From this “R how living systems work and replicate themselves; how diseases can be cont
46、rolled; and how the building blocks of matter can be assembled into a seemingly endless number of new materials that can be hard or plastic, sticky or crystalline, or can replicate images through processes that are initiated by light and other energy forms. Much of this new technology has been utili
47、zed in the evolution of the modern automobile, which is now a composite of metal alloys, synthetic polymers, and computer controlled electrical and mechanical devices. It is powered by an increasingly sophisticated internal combustion engine whose fuel and air mixture is also computer controlled, an
48、d whose chemistry is understood with much greater certainty than could be imagined at the turn of the century.8 These emerging technologies of the 20th century will provide the basis for the development of new technologies to help solve the many challenges that will face the automotive industry duri
49、ng the 21st century. Approximately 47 million vehicles were manufactured in 1997 and the number of operating vehicles on the planet totals nearly 600 million (Graedel, 1998). The same knowledge base that created this incredible fleet has also revealed that its impact on the environment of our planet is significant. At the time new science was making the automobile more attractive and more affordable, it was also giving environmental scientists the tools to see that the automobile, and many of the other products of the industrial and scientific revolutions were not as benign a
