1、考研英语（阅读）模拟试卷 60 及答案与解析Part ADirections: Read the following four texts. Answer the questions below each text by choosing A, B, C or D. (40 points)0 Linda is single, outspoken and deeply engaged with social issues. Which of the following is more likely? That Linda is a bank manager or that Linda is a
2、bank manager who is an active feminist? This is one of the best-known problems in behavioural economics. Many people say that the second option is more likely. Yet, the standard response goes, this cannot be. The rules of probability tell us the probability that both A and B are true cannot exceed t
3、he probability that either A or B is true. Yet even people trained in probability make a mistake with the Linda problem.Or is it a mistake? Little self-examination is required to understand what is going on. Respondents do not interpret the question as one about probability. They think it is a quest
4、ion about believability. The description of Linda that ends with the statement “Linda is a bank manager“ is designed to be inconsistent. The addition “who is an active feminist“ begins to restore coherence. The story becomes more believable, even if less probable.We do not often, or easily, think in
5、 terms of probabilities, because there are not many situations in which this style of thinking is useful. Probability theory is a marvellous tool for games of chance such as spinning a roulette wheel. The structure of the problem is comprehensively defined by the rules of the game. The set of outcom
6、es is well defined and bounded, and we will soon know which outcome has occurred. But most of the problems we face in the business and financial worlds or in our personal lives - are not like that. The rules are ill-defined, the range of outcomes is wider than we can easily imagine and often we do n
7、ot fully comprehend what has happened even after the event.We deal with that world by constructing simplifying narratives. We do this not because we are stupid, or irrational, but because storytelling is the best means of making sense of complexity. The test of these narratives is whether they are b
8、elievable. Jurors convict a defendant because they find the prosecutions account of events believable.The rise of quantitative finance has led people to squeeze many things into the framework of probability. The invention of subjective or personal probabilities proved to be a means of applying a wel
9、l-established branch of mathematics to a new range of problems. This approach had the appearance of science, and enabled young turks to marginalise the war stories of innumerate old fogies. The old fogies may have known something after all, however.Still, reliance on narration is problematic. We are
10、 predisposed to find evidence that confirms our existing beliefs. That leads some people to become obsessed by narratives that offer theories of everything: libertarianism, religious and environmental fundamentalism.The mark of a first-rate intelligence, said the writer F. Scott Fitzgerald, is the a
11、bility to hold conflicting ideas in the mind at the same time and still function.1 The Linda problem is introduced to show that_.（A）people know little about the rules of probability（B） believability is more important than probability（C） people rarely adopt the perspective of probability（D）believabil
12、ity does not necessarily depend on coherence2 The real world problem is characterised by_.（A）uncertainty and complexity（B） systematicness and regularity（C） having rule-based solutions（D）having few avenues for solution3 We can learn from Paragraph 4 that the major function of narratives is_.（A）elimin
13、ating uncertainty（B） providing rationality（C） simplifying complexity（D）creating believability4 Compared with the old fogies, the young turks tend to_.（A）dismiss narratives as unscientific（B） show little interest in probability theory（C） defy established mathematic theories（D）adopt more scientific mo
14、des of narrative5 F. Scott Fitzgerald is quoted to suggest that_.（A）probability and believability should be regarded as compatible（B） reliable narratives should involve both probability and believability（C） our existing beliefs should be checked by conflicting ideas（D）we should take account of both
15、probability and believability5 The “paperless office“ has earned a proud place on lists of technological promises that did not come to pass. Surely, though, the more modest goal of the carbon-paperless office is within the reach of mankind? Carbon paper allows two copies of a document to be made at
16、once. Nowadays, a couple of keystrokes can do the same thing with a lot less fuss. Yet carbon paper persists.This should not come as a surprise. Innovation tends to create new niches, rather than refill those that already exist. So technologies may become marginal, but they rarely go extinct. And to
17、day the little niches in which old technologies take refuge are ever more viable and accessible, thanks to the internet and the fact that production no longer needs to be so mass; making small numbers of obscure items is growing easier. On top of that, a widespread technostalgia seeks to preserve al
18、l the ways people have ever done anything. Steam locomotives; trebuchets; papyrus scrolls: all boast bands of enthusiasts making or restoring them, and sometimes making a nice profit selling the results to fans with money to spare.As a result technologies from all the way back to the stone age persi
19、st and even flourish in the modern world. According to What Technology Wants, a book by Kevin Kelly, one of the founders of Wired magazine, America produces over a million new arrow and spear heads every year. One of the things technology wants, it seems, is to survive. Carbon paper, to the extent t
20、hat it may have a desire for self-preservation, may also take comfort in the fact that, for all that this is a digital age, many analogue products are hanging on, and even making comebacks.Indeed, digital technologies may prove to be more ephemeral than their predecessors. They are based on the idea
21、 that the medium on which a files constituent 0s and 1s are stored doesnt matter, and on Alan Turings insight that any computer can mimic any other, given memory enough and time. This suggests that new digital technologies should be able to wipe out their predecessors completely. And early digital t
22、echnologies do seem to be vanishing. The music cassette is enjoying a little hipster renaissance, its very distortion apparently part of its charm; but digital audio tape seems doomed.So revolutionary digital technologies may yet consign older ones to the dustbin. Perhaps this will be the case with
23、a remarkable breakthrough in molecular technology that could, in principle, store all the data ever recorded in a device that could fit in the back of a van. In this instance, it would not be a matter of the new extinguishing the old. Though it may never have been used for MP3s and PDFs before, DNA
24、has been storing data for over three billion years. And it shows no sign of going extinct.6 The first paragraph intends to tell us_.（A）not all technological promises can come true（B） paperless office is a remote dream（C） carbon paper is still with us（D）carbon-paperless office is on the way7 Which of
25、 the following is true according to Paragraph 2?（A）Old technologies are reviving through innovation.（B） The internet poses a threat to old technologies.（C） Mass production accelerates the revival of old products.（D）Nostomania injects vigor into old technologies.8 The book What Technology Wants is me
26、ntioned to show_.（A）the profit potential of old technologies（B） the vitality of old technologies（C） the possible revival of carbon paper（D）the goal of technology9 The word “ephemeral(Line 1, Para 4)“ means_.（A）transient（B） accessible（C） enduring（D）appealing10 Which of the following is the idea conve
27、yed by this text?（A）The newest technologies look most likely to vanish; the oldest may always be with us.（B） Revolutionary digital technologies may extinguish old ones one day.（C） Molecular technology might be the terminator of other technologies.（D）Imperfectness is where the life of old technologie
28、s lies.10 The half-century between 1912 and 1962 was a period of great wars and economic turbulence but also of impressive social cohesion. Marriage rates were high. Community groups connected people across class. In the half-century between 1962 and the present, America has become more prosperous,
29、peaceful and fair, but the social fabric has deteriorated. Social trust has plummeted. Society has segmented. The share of Americans born out of wedlock is now at 40 percent and rising.As early as the 1970s, three large theories had emerged to explain the weakening of the social fabric. Liberals ass
30、embled around an economically determinist theory. The loss of good working-class jobs undermined communities and led to the social deterioration. Libertarians assembled around a government-centric theory. Great Society programs enabled people to avoid work and gave young women an incentive to have c
31、hildren without marrying. Neo-conservatives had a more culturally deterministic theory. They argued that the abandonment of traditional bourgeois norms led to social disruption.Over the past 25 years, though, a new body of research has emerged. This research tends to support a few common themes. Fir
32、st, no matter how social disorganization got started, once it starts, it takes on a momentum of its own. People who grow up in disrupted communities are more likely to lead disrupted lives as adults, magnifying disorder from one generation to the next. Second, its not true that people in disorganize
33、d neighborhoods have bad values. Their goals are not different from everybody elses. Its that they lack the social capital to enact those values. Third, while individuals are to be held responsible for their behavior, social context is more powerful than we thought. If any of us grew up in a neighbo
34、rhood where a third of the men dropped out of school, wed be much worse off, too. The recent research details how disruption breeds disruption.Over the past two weeks, Charles Murrays book Coming Apart has restarted the social disruption debate. But, judging by ihe firestorm, you would have no idea
35、that the sociological and psychological research of the past 25 years even existed. Murray neglects this research in his book. Meanwhile, his left-wing critics in the blogosphere have reverted to crude 1970s economic determinism; Its all the fault of lost jobs. This economic determinism would be bad
36、 enough if it was just making public debate dumber. But the amputation of sociologic, psychological and cognitive considerations makes good policy impossible.The American social fabric is now so exhausted that even if manufacturing jobs miraculously came back we still would not be producing enough s
37、table, skilled workers to fill them. Its not enough just to have economic growth policies. The country also needs to rebuild orderly communities. This requires bourgeois paternalism: Building organizations and structures that induce people to behave responsibly rather than irresponsibly and, yes, so
38、metimes using government to do so. Social repair requires sociological thinking. The depressing lesson of the last few weeks is that the public debate is dominated by people who stopped thinking in 1975.11 The first paragraph compares the periods before and after 1962 to show .（A）the diminishing of
39、class distinction（B） the deterioration of social fairness（C） the degradation of social cohesion（D）the abandonment of social norms12 The research over the past 25 years tends to justify the saying that_.（A）nature is more important than nurture（B） one takes on the attributes of ones associates（C） habi
40、t shapes character; character decides destiny（D）a community is like a ships everyone ought to be prepared to take the helm13 The author criticizes Coming Apart for its failure in_.（A）revealing the complexity of social deterioration（B） solving the social disruption debate（C） justifying the research o
41、f the past years（D）showing the consequences of lost jobs14 The author expresses strong disapproval to_.（A）economically determinist theory（B） government-centric theory（C） culturally deterministic theory（D）theories over the past 25 years15 The last paragraph suggests that the most important step for r
42、estoring social fabric is_.（A）to produce enough posts for working class（B） to focus economic policies on growth（C） to build good community environment（D）to strengthen the power of the government15 The conviction of seven Italian geological and disaster experts for their negligence in failing to pred
43、ict the 6. 3 magnitude quake in 2009 in the small town of Aquila has shocked the scientific community. Many are wondering whether the Dark Ages have returned to Italy. Galileo rarely trends on Twitter, yet Mondays verdict by a three-judge panel had many alluding to his 1633 heresy conviction by the
44、Catholic Church because he questioned whether the sun actually circled the Earth.If the Earth is not the center of Gods universe, neither are scientists. Their concerns about scientific freedom and how the verdict will silence research are a little overblown and exceptionally righteous. The verdict,
45、 instead, should be understood as a celebration of science. Society has come to believe that science can help citizens make judgments about where to live, how to act, and whether to evacuate. Unlike in the time of Galileo, society has come to accept the value of evidence and deduction. The courts ru
46、ling is a reminder to the scientific community that along with their God-given skills comes a certain a-mount of civic responsibility.Science was not on trial; scientists were. The facts of the case are much more complicated than its critics care to explain. The judges did not argue that earthquake
47、prediction is perfect; they did not demand flawless accuracy in a field that everyone knows is more an art form. Instead, they ruled that members of the so-called Great Risks Commission had not only failed to properly assess the evidence before them, but had actually communicated the exact opposite,
48、 despite evidence to the contrary.Earthquake prediction may not be exact, but it isnt witchcraft either. For those of us who have worked in crisis and disaster management, there is a thriving field of predictive analysis using earthquake modeling, small tremor tracking, and radon gas releases. These
49、 techniques provide experts, and public-safety entities who will have to respond, a hope to penetrate the mystery around earthquakes: Does this type of natural disaster actually drop hints before the Big One?The defendants were sentenced because the public places a value on scientific assurances, much more so than political ones. Maybe the commission was used by politicians who, for reasons that are inexplicable, didnt want to have to deal with a jittery public. One commission member even told everyone to
