1、CIRCULAR 299-AT/126TheWorldofCivilAviation20022005Approved by the Secretary General and published under his authorityINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATIONCopyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitt
2、ed without license from IHS-,-HIGHLIGHTSDURING 2002 .The world economy continued its slow recovery The worlds Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by an estimated 3 per cent in real terms. On a regional basis the change in GDP ranged from an estimated increase of 4.8 per cent for Asia/Pacific to no gro
3、wth for Latin America and the Caribbean (Chapters 1, 5 and 6). as airline traffic performance was patchy.Total scheduled passenger/freight/mail tonne-kilometres performed increased at a 1.6 per cent rate. Significant differences prevailed among regions with growth ranging from -4.8 per cent for carr
4、iers based in Africa to 12.6 per cent for those in the Middle East (albeit from a low base). After the steep 2001 decline, global passenger traffic grew at just 0.4 per cent (in terms of total passenger-kilometres performed), again masking differences among regions (Chapters 2, 5 and 6). and airline
5、 operating results continued to sufferPreliminary estimates indicate that the worlds scheduled airlines suffered an aggregate operating loss of 2.3 per cent of their total operating revenues, following an operating loss of 3.8 per cent in 2001 (Chapters 2, 5 and 6). while aircraft orders were stalle
6、d.A total of 497 turbo-jet powered aircraft were ordered, compared to 990 in 2001 and 1 553 in 2000. The financial commitment for these aircraft orders with major aircraft manufacturers is estimated at U.S.$40 billion in 2002, down from $69 billion and $80 billion the previous two years (Chapter 2).
7、Bilateral and regional developments supported liberalization of air transport services.Bilateral agreements remained the primary vehicles for liberalization of international air transport services for most States, though now with a substantial overlay of regional and plurilateral liberalization arra
8、ngements (Chapter 2).Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-(II) HIGHLIGHTSPrivatization of airlines slowed.Action taken towards privatization included five airlines a
9、chieving their goals, another four airlines announcing their objectives and some 40 State-owned carriers continuing preparation (Chapter 2).as airline alliances continued to expand.Airlines continued to expand transnational strategic alliances to achieve enhanced market access and synergies (Chapter
10、 2).Low-cost carriers were challenging the full service network of major airlines and.The traditional business model of the full service airline came under scrutiny, particularly for airlines with global reach, and spawned experimentation to remain competitive with low-cost carriers (Chapter 2).e-co
11、mmerce development was transforming airline product distribution.Airline distribution business and channels continued to be restructured. Rapid growth has been experienced in on-line sales of air transport services via the Internet, both through third-party providers and directly to consumers and ot
12、her businesses (Chapter 2).Airports and air navigation services providers incurred revenue losses . The slow recovery of air traffic placed financial constraints on airports and air navigation services providers (Chapter 3). and developed cooperative strategiesAirports continued to pursue cooperativ
13、e strategies or alliances among themselves (Chapter 3). while construction projects progressed.Major airport expansion projects were underway in all regions with Europe, Asia and North America leading in airport projects completed, under construction or projected (Chapter 3).Implementation of CNS/AT
14、M systems components continued to yield early benefits.Continued implementation of satellite-based communications, navigation and surveillance/air traffic management systems led to more efficient airspace utilization for international civil aviation. Air traffic service systems around the world cont
15、inued to be upgraded as part of an evolving seamless global air traffic management system (Chapter 3).Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-HIGHLIGHTS (III)Safety rem
16、ained a top priority Preliminary information on aircraft accidents involving passenger fatalities in scheduled air services worldwide shows 14 aircraft accidents in 2002 involving 791 passenger fatalities compared to 13 accidents involving 577 passenger fatalities in 2001. The number of passenger fa
17、talities per 100 million passenger-kilometres increased from 0.020 in 2001 to 0.025 in 2002. By year-end, aviation administrations in 180 out of 188 ICAO Contracting States and five territories had been assessed through the ICAO Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (Chapter 4). and there was a
18、 greatly increased focus on security.Twenty-two acts of unlawful interference were recorded in 2002, including two acts of unlawful seizure of aircraft, compared to seven in 2001, and eight facility attacks. The decrease in the number of unlawful seizures of aircraft could be attributed to enhanced
19、global aviation security measures in place following the events of 11 September 2001 in the United States (Chapter 4).A mechanism of war risk insurance for third-party liability was established.The ICAO Council approved the establishment of an international mechanism of war risk insurance coverage f
20、or third-party liability (Chapter 4).States continued to deal with environmental problems associated with aviation, including aircraft noise .European legislators adopted rules and procedures regarding the introduction of noise-related operating restrictions at community airports, taking into accoun
21、t the “balanced approach” to aircraft noise management adopted by the ICAO Assembly in 2001 (Chapter 4).and the impact of aircraft engine emissions.Working through ICAO, developed countries continued to study policy options to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions from aviation, including both te
22、chnical solutions and the application of market-based measures (Chapter 4).Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-(IV) HIGHLIGHTSBETWEEN 2003 AND 2005Initially stagnan
23、t, recovery of airline traffic growth is expected .The growth of total scheduled passenger traffic (in terms of passenger-kilometres performed) is forecast to remain stagnant (“zero growth”) in 2003, to rebound at a 4.4 per cent rate in 2004 and to continue to grow at 6.3 per cent in 2005 (Chapters
24、5 and 6). with recovery in airline finances taking longer.The operating result as a percentage of operating revenues (passengers, freight, mail and incidental revenues) is forecast to remain negative at -2.1 per cent in 2003, then to improve progressively to reach break even by 2005 (Chapter 5 and 6
25、).Regional differences in passenger traffic growth will persist.Scheduled passenger traffic of airlines based in Asia/Pacific is foreseen to gain momentum after an anticipated decline in 2003 due to the effects of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). Traffic of North American and European airli
26、nes is expected to stabilize in 2003 and to rebound starting in 2004. Passenger traffic of airlines based in Africa and the Middle East is expected to achieve relatively strong growth rates, while Latin American/Caribbean airlines are projected to grow moderately above the world average throughout t
27、he forecast period (Chapters 5 and 6).Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-THE WORLD OF CIVIL AVIATION 20022005 (V)ForewordIntroduction1. This circular, The World of
28、 Civil Aviation 2002 to 2005, is the eleventh in anannual series of publications covering recent and future developments in civil aviation; thedevelopments for the years 2001 to 2004 were published in Circular 291. In the presentcircular, Part I reviews the main events in or affecting international
29、civil aviation in 2002;Part II analyses trends in the world economy and the air transport industry and presentsglobal forecasts of scheduled passenger traffic and basic airline financial trends through to2005; and Part III reviews, on a region-by-region basis, the year 2002 and gives passengertraffi
30、c prospects through to 2005.Sources2. Extensive aviation statistics may be found in the various ICAO Digests of Statistics.In addition to these Digests, sources of information for The World of Civil Aviation includerelevant and most recently available statistical publications of the United Nations (
31、UN);BACK Aviation Solutions fleet and airline schedule databases; the Airports CouncilInternational (ACI); the Air Transport Association (ATA); Association of Asia Pacific Airlines(AAPA); the Association of European Airlines (AEA); Avmark Inc.; the International AirTransport Association (IATA); the
32、International Monetary Fund (IMF); the Organisation forEconomic Co-operation and Development (OECD); the United Nations Conference on Tradeand Development (UNCTAD); the United States Department of Transportation (DOT); theWorld Bank (WB); the World Tourism Organization (WTO-OMT); the World TradeOrga
33、nization (WTO-OMC); and the WEFA Group (formerly known as Wharton EconometricsForecasting Associates).3. Another source of information used for The World of Civil Aviation is the large andconstantly updated collection of research material on hand at ICAO, including completed ICAOstudies, periodical
34、and occasional publications of national administrations and internationalorganizations, studies prepared by research agencies and individuals, and the aviation press.Finally, an information collection exercise specifically for The World of Civil Aviation wascarried out through the seven ICAO Regiona
35、l Offices.Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under license with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-(VI) FOREWORDICAO CIRCULAR 2994. A Catalogue of ICAO Publications and Audio-visual Training Aids is available onreques
36、t from:International Civil Aviation OrganizationAttention: Document Sales Unit999 University StreetMontral, QuebecCanada H3C 5H7Telephone: (514) 954-8022 SITA: YULADYAFacsimile: (514) 954-6769E-mail: salesicao.int5. The statistical data for 2002 appearing in this circular are to be considered asprel
37、iminary: experience shows that the margin of error for world totals is probably less than2 per cent, except in the case of operational results where it may be considerably higher.6. Unless otherwise noted:a) all statistical data are applicable to ICAO Contracting States (188 at the endof 2002);b) re
38、gional breakdowns are by ICAO statistical region (see map precedingChapter 6);c) traffic statistics are for scheduled services of commercial air carriers;d) total airline financial statistics relate to non-scheduled as well as scheduledoperations of commercial air carriers;e) the expression “tonne-k
39、ilometre” means metric tonne-kilometre;f) the word “billion” means one thousand million; andg) all references to monetary units made in this circular mean “United States(U.S.) cents” for “cents” and “U.S. dollars” for “$”.Copyright International Civil Aviation Organization Provided by IHS under lice
40、nse with ICAONot for ResaleNo reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS-,-THE WORLD OF CIVIL AVIATION 20022005 (VII)TABLE OF CONTENTSPagePART I THE WORLD IN 2002Chapter 1 ECONOMIC INFLUENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Gross Domestic P
41、roduct . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3International trade and tourism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Inflation and currency markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
42、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Crude oil and jet fuel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Chapter 2 AIR CARRIERS AND THEIR FLEETS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Economic regulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
43、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Bilateral agreements and negotiations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Regional regulatory developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Trade in services dev
44、elopments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14National liberalization policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Fair competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
45、. . . . . . . 15State aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Consumer protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Airport access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
46、 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17Ownership, alliances and cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Privatization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
47、. . . 18National consolidation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Transnational ownership. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Alliances and cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
48、. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Airline business models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Fares and rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Tariff
49、establishment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Tariff developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26Product distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Computer reservation systems (CRS). . . . . . . . . . . . .
