1、The Population of China and the World in the New Century,JIANG Zhenghua June 2013,2,People are the drivers and undertakers of social development. In the 1970s, people had a heated debate on population issues. Many thought the population bomb after the World War II, or baby boom, posed a threat to wo
2、rld security. The 100 years in the 20th century registered the fastest population growth, from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion. In the late 20th century, the growth rates dropped rapidly. At this point, a new voice emerged. According to MHLW (Ministry of Healthlabor and Welfare) of Japan, “Japans populat
3、ion will drop to only 5 million by year 3000.” Similar concerns of “population doomsday” were echoed by many countries. But their concerns will not become the reality, since human society will adopt countermeasures in the new circumstances to achieve sustained development.,3,I . Coordinated developm
4、ent of population and economyPeople generate economic gains and harvest them at the same time. Arguments had it that there might occur overpopulation and labor redundancy in certain countries and regions, and it will jeopardize their economic performance. Actually, a period of high unemployment rate
5、 does not necessarily mean labor redundancy. Instead, unreasonable economic structure may lead to structural unemployment, and inappropriate policies may increase voluntary unemployment. However, an enduring decrease in marginal productivity is a sign of labor redundancy, and zero marginal productiv
6、ity definitely means labor redundancy.,4,Population is the internal factor of economic development. It can fully play its role if polices are well implemented. The faddish theory of “population trap” in the 1960s believed that the rapid population growth drags down economy because the increased outp
7、ut is exhausted by the increased people. Only by adding an external force can the region get out of the trap. Another theory based on Asian development holds a different view. Except for a few countries such as the Philippines, most Asian countries achieved initial prosperity with cheap labor, which
8、 is known as “demographic dividend”. The demographic dividend actually opens a window of opportunity for Asian countries. After the term first appeared in the 1998 Report on the State of World Population by UNFPA (the United Nations Population Fund) , it was widely quoted by developing countries. So
9、me even said that the abundant labor force is indispensible for sustained development. However, Chinas experience can be explained by neither theory. As long as proper policies are put in place, the internal factor will fully play its role in facilitating economy regardless of the population environ
10、ment.,5,During the post second World War, economists were confused by an unusual trade phenomenon. The United States, in spite of its advanced technology and limited labor force, was exporting labor intensive products and importing technology intensive products. Researchers found out that in the lab
11、or intensive market, the U.S. productivity was four times as high as that of the others, which won U.S. the advantage in global trade. This is called Leontiefs paradox. It shows that development does not depend on the large supply of labor force, but on the improvement of technology, labor force qua
12、lity, and an appropriate amount of labor. By keeping up with the times and deepening the reform can we find ways to sustain the development.,6,In many analysis models, economic structure and technology are thought to have bigger implications on economic performance than the amount of labor. In other
13、 words, we can neither overstate or downplay the role of cheap labor. Based on calculations on factors including investment, population, resource, depreciation, technology and expenditure, and by setting up a new mathematical model, we worked out the optimal population. Take Chinas case, its optimum
14、 population is around 700 million to 800 million in the long run.,7,II. The coordinated development between population and societySocial development influences population in many ways, the first one to mention is mortality and fertility rate. The mortality rate differs because nutrition standards, e
15、nvironment and medical conditions are different among countries. In the early19th century, scholars studied the impact on peoples lifespan by comparing different material and mental conditions between the wealth and the poor, the ruling class and the working class. Data provided by the flourishing i
16、nsurance industry in the 20th century made the study go deeper. Over the past 50 years, due to the improved medical technology, greater availability of compulsory education and public service, peoples health conditions are greatly improved, and the average lifespan among countries is getting closer.
17、 Actually, the lifespan of some developing countries gets higher than that of developed ones when the latter was having a similar or higher average income. Besides, a strong and targeted policy helps to sufficiently reduce the motility rate.,8,After the Second World War, the introduction of DDT, an
18、insecticide against mosquitoes, in Sri Lanka effectively suppressed malaria. The number of malaria patients shrank, and the mortality rate was down by one third within one year. From the early 1950s to the early 1980s, global average life expectancy went up from 46.5 to 59.5, and has since increased
19、 by 0.25 to 0.3 annually. Before 1949, Chinas average life expectancy was 35, and later rapidly climbed up. Now Chinas average lifespan is much higher than that in other developing countries and is also beyond the world average standard. It is estimated that by 2050, Chinas health conditions will ca
20、tch up with developed countries, and its life expectancy may go beyond 80.,9,The impact of social factors on fertility rate is difficult to analyze, because social factors are not easy to be quantified. On the whole, social and economic development brings down fertility rate. The need for a higher s
21、tandard of living will, for a time, transfer peoples attention from having a baby. But the culture of nurturing the next generation is hard to be overthrown within a short period. The complex social structures and diversified cultures lead to the different needs of families. Its quite possible that
22、the family needs do not go with the overall social interests. This should be addressed by the comprehensive use of economic, social, legal and administrative tools.,10,The world fertility rate hit its peak in the 1950s. About every woman expected 5 children in her lifetime. And there were 32 countri
23、es where one woman gave birth to more than 7 children. No country registered an average birth counts smaller than 2. In the mid and late 20th century, the world fertility rate dropped quickly because of social development, technology progress, mortality rate decreasing and lifestyle changing. From 1
24、995 to 2000, the world average birth counts dropped to 2.79, and in 49 countries it was below 2. Only 7 countries had an average birth counts of 7 or above. The declining momentum of fertility rate is continuing. According to the comprehensive analysis by the United Nations, in the coming 40 years,
25、the fertility rate in the least developed countries will rapidly decrease and that in the developed countries will slightly increase. By the mid 21st century, the worldwide average birth counts will drop to nearly 2.,11,Population development also influences social development. Regions with higher f
26、ertility and mortality rate urgently need to facilitate economic and social development with higher public service availability and bigger investment in sanitation and health. Meanwhile, regions with low birth rate and mortality face challenges such as aging, unbalanced population structure and the
27、adjustment of development strategies. China is undergoing the most drastic change in its population development, and faces acute problems. Many places were suffering from the fact that childrens number surged for a time, resulting in inadequate elementary and middle school facilities and then the nu
28、mber plummeted, leaving a plenty of schools unattended. Currently, problems such as fast increase of elderly people, insufficient facilities and service for the elderly, and unbalanced inter-generation benefits have to be well handled. Addressing these issues is an important step to achieve a harmon
29、ious society.,12,Because of Chinas family planning policy, many one child families occurred. Death of the only child and the work of the elderly people bring about sticky problems for families. To address them, government has to care for and well arrange their needs. Only in this way, family plannin
30、g policies will contribute for economic development, and low birth rate families will fully benefit from social and economic development. With coordinated polices and a sound legal, social and culture structure, a stable and low birth rate and higher caliber talents will contribute for social, econo
31、mic and science-based development.,13,Third, coordinated development between population, resources and environment.Resources, both renewable and unrenewable, provide the material basis for human development. In human history, with productivity improving and industry progressing, more resources becom
32、e usable, adding impetus to human progress. An estimate says that in the times of hunting and gathering, it needed 30 square km to provide for one man, which means only 5 million people can survive in the world. In the husbandry time, 0.5-2.7 square km is enough for one man. Coming to the agricultur
33、al time, productive force was further improved, and one square km is sufficient for 40 people, in the industrial age, 160 people. In spite of peoples improving capability of developing nature, resources became scarce at this point. The Earth now can only support 20 billion people.,14,It is unclear h
34、ow much resources people need from the Earth to sustain their livelihood, because it needs specific preconditions such as the life quality, technology, resource scarcity and its support capacity. Some scholars think the Earth can only bear 2.4 billion people if each person is living a premium life w
35、ith the most scarce resources. Some think gene engineering technology will help to increase the number to 50 billion. Some hold that if people learn to get used to the harsh natural environment such as African dessert, 100 billion people will get fed. But most viewers believe, the Earth can bear 10
36、billion to 15 billion people in a reasonable living condition and no severe conflicts will arise.,15,Grains are indispensible for peoples life. With livelihood improving, less grains are directly consumed by people, and more are fed to animals for meat supply. The output of 1 kg of beef requires 7 k
37、gs of grains, and 1 kg of pork, 3 kgs of grains. The surging population after the second World War caused global grain storage plummeting below the safety line. Besides the grain, unrenewable energies such as oil, gas and coal are consumed to a foreseeable end even if breakthroughs were made in the
38、exploration of new energies such as methane hydrate. Metals such as iron and copper could be supplied to the world for 100 years at the longest. In the next 50 years, global economy aggregate will increase by four times. A resource crisis is underway. It is a globaly urgent task to transform industr
39、y pattern and adjust economy structure.,16,The current population growth and economy development is placing enormous pressures on ecological environment with the big consumption of resources. Each year, 23 billion tons of surface soil is lost while the total storage is only 3500 billion, and the new
40、ly formed topsoil is very limited. Half of the world arable land is bad conditioned, and to develop it needs big investment which is not economical. Two thirds of the world resources are not providing as many utilities as before. In the balance sheet of natural resources, we are in debt and are cons
41、uming resources at a rate faster than the rehabilitation. This harms the interest of the next generation and can not be sustained.,17,In the beginning of this century, the international cooperation research program “Millennium Ecosystem Assessment” was initiated with the support from UN agencies and
42、 other organizations.1360 researchers from 95 countries attended this program and published the research report in 2005. In this report, it affirms the benefits brought by development to human society and assesses the natural wealth decrease in many countries. The result was shocking. A lot of count
43、ries see the amount of natural wealth reduced is 3 to 5 times what is produced. As for China, it produces 9 times what is consumed. This shows that Chinas development is very successful on the whole. But there are also negative impacts which can not be ignored.,18,Chinas per capita water resource is
44、 only a quarter of the world average, and arable land is 40%. It relies heavily on the import of oil, gas and mineral resources. The bottleneck of Chinas development is the lack of fresh water which is not importable. If the current consumption speed continues, Chinas surface water will run out when
45、 its per capita GDP reaches $10,000. A bigger problem is that Chinas water resource is unevenly distributed. 83% of its total water resource lies in 38% of the cultivated land to the south of Yangtze River, whereas Huang, Huai, Hai and Liao River basins which possess 42% of the arable land only have
46、 9% of water resources. To solve the problem, water storage, conservation and diversion projects draw close attention of the government, but still greater efforts are needed.,19,Faced with limited resources, we try to find a way out by studying Chinas carrying capacity at certain conditions includin
47、g technologyy, resource replacement, life quality,and economic adjustment. The moderate population of China is about 1.6 billion. When it reaches 1.8 billion, resource and environment crises will occur, bringing catastrophic consequences to social and economy development. To achieve coordinated deve
48、lopment among population, resources, ecology and environment, we need insisting on a stable and low fertility rate, promoting the quality of people, adjusting population structure, optimizing population distribution and improving population policies.,20,IVto Achieve population balance through compre
49、hensive and coordinated development：Population is a complex system with a long cycle. When fertility rate drops quickly, the system feels the strong impact, and it takes over 70 years to come back to a steady level. In the recent years, to improve Chinas population policies, some suggest putting peo
50、ples quality first to develop economy. Some propose to increase labor supply. Some advise implementing two-child policy instantly to meet family needs. Some believe we should adjust policies step by step. Some urge to downsize Chinas population to 500 million with stricter birth control, and some believe our country can bear many more people than 500 million.,
