1、Additional Road Investments Needed to Support Oil & Gas Production and Distribution in North Dakota,Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute North Dakota State University,Presentation Topics,Overview of study and results Details of analysis Details of unpaved road analysis Types of improvements a
2、nd analysis methods Details of paved road analysis Types of improvements, costs, and effects Conclusions and discussion,2,Study Overview,Purpose: Forecast road investment needs in oil and gas producing counties of North Dakota over the next 20 years Objective: Quantify the additional investments nec
3、essary for efficient year-round transportation for the oil industry while providing travelers with acceptable roadway service,3,Study Overview,Scope: The focus is on roads owned or maintained by local governments e.g. counties and townships. Study Area: 17 oil and gas producing counties Counties inc
4、lude: Billings, Bottineau, Bowman, Burke, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley, McHenry, McKenzie, Mclean, Mercer, Mountrail, Renville, Slope, Stark, Ward, and Williams,4,Primary Data Sources,Analysis based on: oil production forecasts, traffic data, county road surveys Types of roads analyzed: paved, gravel
5、ed, and graded & drained 2010 survey information on impacted routes and conditions 2008 survey information on typical road characteristics,5,Production Forecasting,Oil &Gas Division of North Dakota Industrial Commission Existing and near-term drilling locations Based upon current rig activity and pe
6、rmit applications through end of 2010 Future locations of rigs estimated from lease data from North Dakota Land Department,6,Drilling Phases,Initial phase: lease expirations 2010-2015 Assume drilling begins in final year of lease Fill-in phase: 3-5 additional wells placed Private leases will occur i
7、n same areas as public leases 21,250 wells drilled in next 10-20 years Assume 1,500/year14 years to drill 21,250 wells,7,Traffic Prediction Model,Forecasted output of wells is routed over road network using detailed GIS model Oil movements converted to equivalent truck trips following least-cost rou
8、tes Projected inputs (e.g., sand and water) and outbound movements (salt water) similarly routed Movements of specialized equipment (such as workover rigs) included,8,Road Investment Analysis,Predicted inbound and outbound movements accumulated for each impacted segment Oil-related trips combined wi
9、th baseline (non-oil) traffic to estimate total traffic load on each road Economic/engineering methods used to estimate additional investment needs,9,Field Data: Traffic Counts,Counters deployed at 100 locations Raw data adjustedTo represent traffic for 24-hour periodMonthly variation ADT=145; Truck
10、s=61 (26 multi-units) Paved roads 100 trucks/day Data used to calibrate trip model and estimate baseline traffic loads,10,Estimated Investment Needs 2012-2013 - 2030-2031 (Millions),11,Investment Needs by Biennium (Millions),12,Details of Analysis,Data Collection Network Flow Modeling Unpaved Analys
11、is Paved Analysis,13,Data Collection,Roadway Data Traffic Classification Traffic Counts Condition Data Cost and Practices Data Oil Development Data Number and Locations of Wells Inputs to Production Origins and Destinations Production Output Origins and Destinations,14,Roadway Data,Traffic Classific
12、ation Maps sent to county point person with instructions to classify roadways by traffic levels Used to identify potential sample traffic count sites Traffic Counts Selected using the classification data provided by the county point people Used to calibrate the GIS network routing model and to verif
13、y vehicle classification Photos were taken of many of the road segments where counters were placed, and used to verify surface type and condition data,15,Cost and Practices Data,Survey of County Contacts Component costs - Unpaved Gravel Blading Location Delivery Placement Dust suppressant Paving cos
14、ts,16,Cost and Practices Data,Survey of County Contacts Maintenance Practices Gravel Overlay Interval Gravel Overlay Thickness Blading Interval Dust Suppressant Usage,17,Cost and Practices Data,County Level Cost Calculations Due to the variations in reported costs and practices, unpaved costs were c
15、alculated at the county level Reflects actual practices and actual costs at the time of the analysis,18,Roadway Data,Condition Data Maps were sent to the county point person with instructions to classify roadways by surface condition Specific classification instructions were given, per the South Dak
16、ota Pavement Condition Survey Guide 692 miles listed as either poor or very poor condition,19,Oil Development Data,Numbers and Locations of Wells Initial rig and well locations obtained from NDIC Oil & Gas Division website Forecasted locations estimated from ND Land Department GIS shapefiles of publ
17、ic land leases Leases for public lands only Private land development assumed to be in the same geographic region as the public leases Buffer public lands to estimate development areas on private land,20,Oil Development Data,Forecasted locations estimated from ND Land Department GIS shapefiles of pub
18、lic land leases ND Land Department data has lease expiration dates Assumption that drilling will occur in the final year of the lease, and is a single well Oil & Gas estimates 1,450-2,940 wells/year 2,140 expected, 21,250 in 10 to 20 years Lease expirations available through 2015 Post 2015 filling i
19、n phase of drilling 4-6 additional wells on the site,21,Oil Development Data,Inputs Data collected from Oil & Gas, NDDOT, and industry representatives The goal was to quantify the number and type of truck trips that the well drilling process generates The major trip generators were water, equipment
20、and sand,22,Bakken Well Inputs,23,Oil Development Data,Outputs Production (Oil & Gas) County average IP rates Production curve and pipeline access Saltwater production Oil collection/transload sites (Oil & Gas) Current list of operating oil collection points Saltwater Disposal Sites (Oil & Gas) Curr
21、ent list of operating SWD sites,24,Network Flow Modeling,Origins and Destinations OD Pairs Sand Rig Freshwater Rig Rig Rig (Equipment) Supplies (chemical, pipe, cement, fuel, etc.) Rig Rig - SWD Rig Collection Point Assignment of Pairs Closest destination chosen Routing is based on the least cost pa
22、th between origin and destination,25,Network Flow Modeling,Scenarios Baseline Summer 2010 June Oil Sales Existing Well and Rig Locations Network Development and Refinement,26,Network Flow Modeling,Forecast Flows 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016-2020, 2021-2025, 2026-2030 Associated Volumes Inputs
23、(Water, Sand, Equipment, etc.) Output (Oil and SWD) Model Forecasted Traffic Movements Generate Volume Estimates for Individual Roadway Segments,27,Unpaved Road Analysis,Estimation of the additional maintenance and improvement activities due to oil development Impacted Miles: 11,834 gravel, 884 grad
24、ed & drained,28,Unpaved Roads,29,Unpaved Roads,Impacted means that at least one oil related truck was routed over the section in the network flow model Impacts and needs vary by traffic levels Impact Classification Low: 0-25 (10,930 miles) Elevated: 25-50 (1,094 miles) Moderate: 50-100 (409 miles) H
25、igh: 100+ (284 miles),30,Unpaved Roads,Improvement Types Graded and Drained Low: No additional improvements Elevated: Maintenance increase Moderate: Upgrade to gravel roadway (reconstruct) High: Upgrade to gravel roadway (reconstruct) Roadway Width Initial condition of graded and drained roads are o
26、ften deficient with respect to roadway width Reconstruction includes regrading the road, and addition of width to a minimum of 24 feet with gravel overlay,31,Unpaved Roads,Improvement Types Gravel Low: Decrease blading interval Elevated: Decrease gravel interval by 33% (3-4 years) Moderate: Decrease
27、 gravel interval by 50% (2-3 years) High: Upgrade to double chip seal surface Additional Enhancements/Improvements Dust Suppressant Reconstruction to eliminate deficiencies roadway width and structural deficiencies,32,Unpaved Roads,Chip Seal Improvement Single Chip Seal Constructed from a single app
28、lication of binder followed by a single application of uniformly graded aggregate Selected for normal situations where no special considerations would indicate that a special type of chip seal is warranted,33,Source: TRB: Chip Seal Best Practices,Unpaved Roads,Chip Seal Improvement Double Chip Seal
29、Constructed from two consecutive applications of both the bituminous binder followed by a single application of uniformly graded aggregate Double chip seals have less noise from traffic, provide additional waterproofing, and a more robust seal in comparison with a single chip seal Used in high stres
30、s situations, such as areas that have a high percentage of truck traffic or steep grades,34,Source: TRB: Chip Seal Best Practices,35,36,Key Factors: Paved Road Analysis,Thickness of aggregate base and asphalt surface layers Condition (extent of deterioration) Graded width Soil support (spring load r
31、estrictions) Truck weights and axle configurations Volume of oil-related traffic and other trucks,37,Paved Road Thickness (Inches),38,Medium-design: 4“ AC, 8“ Aggregate Base, 8“ Subbase,Paved Road Conditions,68 miles in poor or very poor condition Experiencing heavy oil-related traffic Cannot be cos
32、t-effectively resurfaced Must be reconstructed 334 miles in fair condition Expected to deteriorate rapidly under heavy truck traffic Reduced service lives,39,Spring Load Restrictions,Relative damage from load may increase by 400% 80% of miles are subject to 6- or 7-ton load restrictions or 65,000-lb
33、 gross weight Reduced payloads for trucks Ideally, the most heavily traveled oil routes should be free from seasonal restrictions Reconstruction only guaranteed solution,40,Graded Roadway Width,Determines if thick overlays are feasible without narrowing lanes and shoulders 50% of county roads 28 ft
34、wide Narrower roads affect roadway capacity (e.g., vehicles per hour) as well as safety Predicted crash rate for a two-lane road with 11-ft lanes and 2-ft shoulders is 1.38 x crash rate with 12-ft lanes and 6-ft shoulders,41,Reduced Road Service Lives,Using AASHTO design equations, the service life
35、of each impacted road is projected with and without oil trafficThe average reduction in life is five years Williams, McKenzie, and Mountrail Counties have the most predicted miles with reduced service lives,42,Type of Road Improvements,Reconstruction: $1.25 million per mile Eliminate spring restrict
36、ions Standard lanes with shoulders Improved base-surface thickness ratio Structural overlay: $300,000 per mile Base-case: thin overlay Renewal costs: $8.90 per front-haul truck mile,43,Annual Road Maintenance,Maintenance includes two optimally-timed seal coats, crack sealing, patching, striping, etc
37、. Increases by 50% when traffic increases from low to medium levels Increases by 35% when traffic increases from medium to high levels Excludes administrative overhead,44,Additional Paved Road Funding Needs (Million $2010),45,Estimated Investment Needs 2012-2013 - 2030-2031 (Millions),46,Conclusion
38、and Discussion,Estimates for oil-impacted roads only Needs in addition to other road needs Investments will provide improved service for all road users; benefits include: Year-round legal loads on key paved roads Wider safer roads with more capacity Reduced transportation cost Lower life-cycle costs (incl. road user cost),47,
