1、All in a State of Publishing,Michael Cairns Information Media Partners RLG Symposium, Chicago - June 11, 2010,“For Libraries and Librarians, the new premium on skills they have long cultivated as curators, preservers, and retrievers of collective knowledge puts them squarely on top of an information
2、 geyser in the sciences that could reshape medicine.”,Jonathan Shaw Gutenberg 2.0: Harvards Libraries Deal With Disruptive Change,Information Publishers are trailblazers,Competent,Master,Learner,Education,Information,Trade,2003,1990,1995,2010,2015,2001,Rapid Investment,New Dangers,Caution,Introducti
3、on and Agenda,Summary of the business environment The future of the book (so far) Publishing in the digital age,Publishing: Like Any Other Industry,Change Dislocation Speed Technology,Characterizing the Marketplace today,Subdued Anxious Retrenchment Confusion Jealousy,Key Segment Business Drivers,Tr
4、ade Big author block buster Technology Products Technology Distribution Retail stability Media tie-ins “Celebrity” Conflict over attention,Education Government spending NCLB Education Policy Local & state Adoptions Taxes Enrollments Economy Continuing education Community colleges Long distance Vocat
5、ional/Technical Workflow tools Evaluative Administrative,Information Practicing professionals Macro economics Library budgets Government investment Workflow applications Technology innovation,Revenues Look Healthy,Source: BISG Trends Report 2009,($,Millions),New Book Titles and Editions: 2003-2010(E
6、),Source: R.R. Bowker,Sales of Trade E-Books $ Millions,Source: IDPF,Sales of Digital Textbooks: Percent of US Market,Source: Misouri Book Company,Many publishers have been publishing in e-Formats for many years.,Pearson: Digital is 31% of revenues in 2009.,Wiley, Elsevier, Wolters Kluwer have simil
7、ar statistics,The Future of the Book (so far),Observations,Revolution or reinvention? E-Books highly segmented Trade adoption driven by hardware and price Education faster mover, academic less so No significant innovation Piracy No consistent approach, no real data,Trade: “a giant mess”“no massive c
8、hange”,Top of the pyramid Senior executives are focused on E Most publishers not addressing the transition Reliant on supply chain to drive e-Content Curation is little understood but will be important Workflows are being redefined,Academic: “future hasnt been invented yet”,Print is still format of
9、record dissertations, tenure Limited impact of e-Content migrations Content rendering issues Old publishing model: long lead times, high pricing, one dimensional content Bastardized content: graphs, tables, equations, etc. Potential to exceed Trade in application of benefits of e-Content Indexing, b
10、ibliographies, source materials, etc.,Education: “much faster than anticipated”,E-Content migration significantly underway Successes with “born digital” content not just migrated print content Few publishers thinking about e from scratch E-Book hardware have failed (thus far) in education Market dev
11、elops to a database and subscription model Content becomes dynamic Platform for services and content,“Many of our genre titles couldnt be published without library buy-in. Of 8,000-10,000 units only 2,000 go to retail.” “I dont understand how libraries are going to exist in a future market.” “We don
12、t love any of the models that exist for libraries.”,Implications,Patron and library data vacuum Ambivalence and lack of awareness of library market dynamics: “Whats remote access?” Relationship between loaning and buying Characteristics of library patrons Current patron behavior in an e-Content worl
13、d Can patrons be leveraged by publishers more effectively?,A library social world,Gathering readers together The lonely act of reading transitioning to community reading Around the book Building communities Networked reading Can librarians help this trend and/or participate in it,Publishing in the D
14、igital Age,Thoughts and predictions,Remember the Characterization?,Subdued Anxious Retrenchment Confusion Jealousy,Are things really that bad?,During 2009 Book Publishing a winner No resurrection during 2009 Executives guarded about immediate future Short to medium term problems with education and l
15、ibrary funding No bail-out!,Change is Coming,Trade Re-evalution of value chain Direct to consumer models Publishers as retailers, retailers as publishers,Information Software as a service Application providers Service outsourcers Embedded content,Education Expanded value chain Solutions providers Cu
16、stom production Content, Assessment, Remediation, Management,eBooks and eContent holds center stage,2009 Year of the E-Book Apples (Hardware) role in book/media content will be defining Google Editions: “The Cloud” Content rights challenged: Concept of ownership E-Content rather than E-Books E-Conte
17、nt another format option,27,Forecasting Publishing In The Digital Age,Publishing and technology will become synonymous Web delivery, xml based and open social network orientation Expansion of solutions based publishing Education publishers rapid adoption of solutions based applications Slow publishers will loose to new entrants,“People want to be directed.”,THANK YOU. The United States of Publishing,Michael Cairns M Blog: ,
