1、Analytic Tools in the Policy Process: What Works and What Does not?,ESD 11 December 6, 2000,Outline,Available Tools for Policy Analysis Economic Political Business / Finance Negotiation Sociometric Cases and applications Health Harbors Water Telecom Discussion of the ESD 11 Final Exam,Economic and F
2、inancial Tools,Assumption: Homo economicusCost/Benefit Analysis “Social Cost/Benefit” Analysis Trade-off Analysis Revenue Analysis IRR,Sociometric,Survey Analysis Case Study Analysis .,Trade-off Analysis,Negotiation,Pareto,Attribute 2,Attribute 1,Dominated Alternatives,Pareto Superior Alternatives,G
3、etting to Yes:The Principles,Separate the people from the Problem Tomorrow is another day Focus on the Interests not the Positions What is important to the negotiators? What are the attributes of a good outcome? Invent Options for mutual gain Expand the alternative set “What are we missing?” Insist
4、on using objective criteria How can we measure how we are doing?,Political Paradigms,Analyses that ASSUME rational behavior Again Homo economicus ? Bounded Rationality ? Satisficing behavior? Conflict avoidance behavior?The Simple Paradigm Structural Functional Analysis,The Cases What did you use?,T
5、ransplant Case?HarborCo Case?Water In California Case?African Telecom?Other Courses this semester?,Two Questions,What policy analytic tools did you use that you “brought with you?”What policy analytic tools would you have wished to use that you did not, yourself or a team member, have sufficient kno
6、wledge to use?,Policy Analysis: “Truths”,Question / challenge the assumptions THE forecast is always wrong Communication is the key: Make it more understandable not more complicated Measure the important variables not the variables that are easy to measure,Lee, Ball and Tabors on Energy Policy,Techn
7、ology, not resource depletion, is the driving force for substition The consequences of poor strategies can be enormous and unpredictable Most forecasts are wrong, therefore robustness is a critical planning requirement The task of analysts is to lay out the options, not to tell the decision makers w
8、hat to do Measure the right thing,Do not confuse the systems approach with systems analysis Understand technologies and manage them accordingly Quality pays and cleaner is cheaper Dont overemphasize science and de-emphasize engineering Government Sponsored R&D projects in areas where the government
9、is not the user of the results are usually ineffective,The ESD 11 Final Examination,When: Friday December 15 From: 9am to 4pm Where: Your choice (but alone) How: In and out on Email to BOTH taborsmit.edu and farzanamit.edu Format: General Problem: A policy analysis based on the policy process paradi
10、gm that we have discussed in class (and will discuss again on Friday). Specific Problem: 5 to 7 stated issues around which your response can be structured.,ESD 11 Final: Example,For your home country, or for a nation that you have studied, provide a policy analysis of one of the following issues. Fo
11、cus your response on a concise statement of the background to the problem and then upon the “cast of characters” and the individual positions and the logic of those positions. Conclude with a discussion of a tactical strategy for implementation of the policy discussed. Example of a proposed policy Absorption of CO2 by forests is a desired means of reducing Global Warming.,
