1、1,Barter, Auction and Technology Implications for Cash Management,Campbell R. Harvey Duke University, Durham, NC USA National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge MA USAhttp:/www.duke.edu/charvey,Association of Financial PlannersFebruary 11, 2002,2,Future of Cash Management: -Technology,We have se
2、en exponential growth in exponential growth of computing!Growth factors: Shorter distance for electrons to travel (transistor die size gets smaller) Greater number of transistors,3,Future of Cash Management: -Technology,New growth factors: “Pipelining” - Multiple calculations performed at the same t
3、ime (parallel processing) Hence, conservative forecast would be to slow to exponential growth,4,Future of Cash Management: -Technology,Human brain: 100 billion neurons 1000 connections between each neuron 100 trillion connections, each capable of simultaneous calculation,5,Future of Cash Management:
4、 -Technology,Human brain: Strength: Massively parallel Weakness: Very slow, only 200 calculations per second. Explains why brains does a great job at operations that require massively parallel, such as pattern recognition.,6,Future of Cash Management: -Technology,Human brain: At 200 calculations per
5、 second and 100 trillion connections, implies 20 million billion calculations per second.,7,Future of Cash Management: -Technology,Currently, we can do 2 billion calculation per second for about $1000.,8,Future of Cash Management: -Technology,August 15, 2001 Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiativ
6、e (ASCI) revealed a supercomputer capable of 12.8 trillion calculations per second with plan for 100 trillion by 2005 At this rate, 28,000 trillion by 2016,9,1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100,10401035103010251020101510101051010-510-10,Calculations per second per $1000,Mouse Brai
7、n,Human Brain,All Humans Brains,Insect Brain,Computing and the Human Brain,Source: Ray Kurzweil,10,Future of Cash Management: -Technology,Forecasts: 2016 Achieve capacity of human brain (based on extrapolation of Lawerence Livermore National Laboratories ASCI) 2025 Achieve the same capacity for $100
8、0 2060 Achieve the capacity of 1 trillion humans,11,Future of Cash Management: -Technology,What about memory? Brain capacity is 100 trillion synapse strengths which is approximate 1 million billion bits 1 billion bits (128 megabytes) today costs less than $100. Reasonable forecast would be the memor
9、y equivalent of the brain by 2020 for $1000,12,Future of Cash Management: -Organzational Structures,Impact for the Corporation? Corporations mainly evolved in the late 19th century as a way to reduce transactions costs (including limited liability)The forces that created the environment for the corp
10、oration to thrive seem to be working against the corporation in the future.,13,Future of Cash Management: -Organzational Structures,Impact for the Corporation? Transactions costs are dramatically lower (this includes barriers to entry, cost to reach consumer, etc.) The logic of centralized control h
11、as given way to a decentralized entrepreneurial type of capitalism.,14,Future of Cash Management: -Organzational Structures,Impact for the Corporation? Need to look hard at what are the advantages that a large corporation in this future landscape.Micro-specialization and growth of outsourcing.,15,Fu
12、ture of Cash Management: -Organzational Structures,Impact for the Consumer? More information, more competition, more value.Evolution from mass marketing, to segments, to individuals.,16,Future of Cash Management: -Impact for Finance,Major driving forces AI/Pattern recognition integrated into managem
13、ent C2C will greatly reduce role of corporation that are facilitators Sharp growth in reverse auction Barter,17,Future of Cash Management: -AI,Pattern recognition We have seen very crude neural net applications fail.In the future, much more complexity is possible.,18,Future of Cash Management: -AI,E
14、xample: Next generation of pattern recognition Consider a string of numbers 0100101010001010111101011010101010Could represent graphics, words. Lets represent this in a binary tree and use the theory of data compression.,19,0100101010001010111101011010100101,20,0100101010001010111101011010100101,I,II
15、II,Only 20% probability of drawing a 1,21,Future of Cash Management: -C2C,Client to Client? Cuts the role of the middle person (or redefines role). Efficient collection of information Growth in validators, new form of insurance,22,Future of Cash Management: -Auction,Auction? We have seen dramatic gr
16、owth in consumer auctions. Next we will see growth in B2B and C2C auctions,23,Future of Cash Management: -Barter,Barter? Logic of currency: Unit of account Eliminates transactions costs of barter,24,Future of Cash Management: -Barter,What about currency? Transactions cost of barter have dramatically
17、 decreased with Internet In the future, money will be a unit of account - and it is not even clear that is necessary (unit of account could be anything),25,Future of Cash Management: -Barter,Implications for currency Large B2B barter market Forward barter could reduce much of the need for working ca
18、pital Rethink the need for debt,26,Future of Cash Management: -Global finance,Implications for global finance Currency less important Shorter term: Three currency zones Shortly after: One world unit of account,27,Future of Cash Management: -Global finance,Implications for finance Currency hedging wi
19、ll be less important - if it exists at all Implications for interest rate management Debt will not be in traditional currency but goods,28,Future of Cash Management: -Tomorrow,A look at the changing landscape of FX management Competitive landscape Specific C2C method Implications for cash management,
