1、Additive Models, Trees, etc.,Based in part on Chapter 9 of Hastie, Tibshirani, and Friedman David Madigan,Predictive Modeling,Goal: learn a mapping: y = f(x;) Need: 1. A model structure2. A score function3. An optimization strategyCategorical y c1,cm: classification Real-valued y: regression Note: u
2、sually assume c1,cm are mutually exclusive and exhaustive,Generalized Additive Models,Highly flexible form of predictive modeling for regression and classification:,g (“link function”) could be the identity or logit or log or whatever The f s are smooth functions often fit using natural cubic spline
3、s,Basic Backfitting Algorithm,arbitrary smoother - could be natural cubic splines,Example using Rs gam function,library(mgcv) set.seed(0) n-400 x0 - runif(n, 0, 1) x1 - runif(n, 0, 1) x2 - runif(n, 0, 1) x3 - runif(n, 0, 1) pi - asin(1) * 2 f - 2 * sin(pi * x0) f - f + exp(2 * x1) - 3.75887 f - f +
4、0.2 * x211 * (10 * (1 - x2)6 +10 * (10 * x2)3 * (1 - x2)10 - 1.396 e - rnorm(n, 0, 2) y - f + e b-gam(ys(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3) summary(b) plot(b,pages=1),http:/www.math.mcgill.ca/sysdocs/R/library/mgcv/html/gam.html,Tree Models,Easy to understand: recursively divide predictor space into regions wher
5、e response variable has small variance Predicted value is majority class (classification) or average value (regression) Can handle mixed data, missing values, etc. Usually grow a large tree and prune it back rather than attempt to optimally stop the growing process,Training Dataset,This follows an e
6、xample from Quinlans ID3,Output: A Decision Tree for “buys_computer”,age?,overcast,student?,credit rating?,no,yes,fair,excellent,=30,40,no,no,yes,yes,yes,3040,Confusion matrix,Algorithms for Decision Tree Induction,Basic algorithm (a greedy algorithm) Tree is constructed in a top-down recursive divi
7、de-and-conquer manner At start, all the training examples are at the root Attributes are categorical (if continuous-valued, they are discretized in advance) Examples are partitioned recursively based on selected attributes Test attributes are selected on the basis of a heuristic or statistical measu
8、re (e.g., information gain) Conditions for stopping partitioning All samples for a given node belong to the same class There are no remaining attributes for further partitioning majority voting is employed for classifying the leaf There are no samples left,Information Gain (ID3/C4.5),Select the attr
9、ibute with the highest information gain Assume there are two classes, P and N Let the set of examples S contain p elements of class P and n elements of class N The amount of information, needed to decide if an arbitrary example in S belongs to P or N is defined as,e.g. I(0.5,0.5)=1; I(0.9,0.1)=0.47;
10、 I(0.99,0.01)=0.08;,Information Gain in Decision Tree Induction,Assume that using attribute A a set S will be partitioned into sets S1, S2 , , Sv If Si contains pi examples of P and ni examples of N, the entropy, or the expected information needed to classify objects in all subtrees Si isThe encodin
11、g information that would be gained by branching on A,Attribute Selection by Information Gain Computation,Class P: buys_computer = “yes” Class N: buys_computer = “no” I(p, n) = I(9, 5) =0.940 Compute the entropy for age:,HenceSimilarly,Gini Index (IBM IntelligentMiner),If a data set T contains exampl
12、es from n classes, gini index, gini(T) is defined aswhere pj is the relative frequency of class j in T. If a data set T is split into two subsets T1 and T2 with sizes N1 and N2 respectively, the gini index of the split data contains examples from n classes, the gini index gini(T) is defined asThe at
13、tribute provides the smallest ginisplit(T) is chosen to split the node,Avoid Overfitting in Classification,The generated tree may overfit the training data Too many branches, some may reflect anomalies due to noise or outliers Result is in poor accuracy for unseen samples Two approaches to avoid ove
14、rfitting Prepruning: Halt tree construction earlydo not split a node if this would result in the goodness measure falling below a threshold Difficult to choose an appropriate threshold Postpruning: Remove branches from a “fully grown” treeget a sequence of progressively pruned trees Use a set of dat
15、a different from the training data to decide which is the “best pruned tree”,Approaches to Determine the Final Tree Size,Separate training (2/3) and testing (1/3) sets Use cross validation, e.g., 10-fold cross validation Use minimum description length (MDL) principle: halting growth of the tree when
16、 the encoding is minimized,Dietterich (1999) Analysis of 33 UCI datasets,Missing Predictor Values,For categorical predictors, simply create a value “missing” For continuous predictors, evaluate split using the complete cases; once a split is chosen find a first “surrogate predictor” that gives the m
17、ost similar split Then find the second best surrogate, etc. At prediction time, use the surrogates in order,Bagging and Random Forests,Big trees tend to have high variance and low bias Small trees tend to have low variance and high bias Is there some way to drive the variance down without increasing
18、 bias? Bagging can do this to some extent,Nave Bayes Classification,Recall: p(ck |x) p(x| ck)p(ck) Now suppose:Then: Equivalently:,C,x1,x2,xp,“weights of evidence”,Evidence Balance Sheet,Nave Bayes (cont.),Despite the crude conditional independence assumption, works well in practice (see Friedman, 1
19、997 for a partial explanation) Can be further enhanced with boosting, bagging, model averaging, etc. Can relax the conditional independence assumptions in myriad ways (“Bayesian networks”),Patient Rule Induction (PRIM),Looks for regions of predictor space where the response variable has a high avera
20、ge value Iterative procedure. Starts with a region including all points. At each step, PRIM removes a slice on one dimension If the slice size a is small, this produces a very patient rule induction algorithm,PRIM Algorithm,Start with all of the training data, and a maximal box containing all of the
21、 data Consider shrinking the box by compressing along one face, so as to peel off the proportion a of observations having either the highest values of a predictor Xj or the lowest. Choose the peeling that produces the highest response mean in the remaining box Repeat step 2 until some minimal number of observations remain in the box Expand the box along any face so long as the resulting box mean increases Use cross-validation to choose a box from the sequence of boxes constructed above. Call the box B1 Remove the data in B1 from the dataset and repeat steps 2-5.,
