1、Agent-based Computational Social Science in China ：Its Present State and Future Prospects Wei ZHANG, Ziqaing WU & Yongjie ZHANG College of Management & Economics Tianjin University, China 2012-11-3,1,Outline,Introduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major players in the field Funding vs. pub
2、lication Fields distribution of ACSS The important references Conclusions,2,3,Paper downloads from Springer during weekdays and weekends (Journal of Informetrics, 2012)Who is more hardworking?What it is behind?,Outline,Introduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major players in the field Fund
3、ing vs. publication Fields distribution of ACSS The important references Conclusions,4,Introduction,Terminology Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) is the computational study of economies modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents (Tesftsion & Judd, 2006) Along this line, we
4、just use the similar term ACSS to denote the computational study concerned with society and human behaviors, which are modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents,5,Introduction,Culture impacts People tend to think of, especially social, issues in a more complex way, including tons
5、of intertwined factors More “flexible”, more believe in “negotiable” Policy-makers like to see the procedure, to be involved, instead of being given an abstract math model Comparatively, not much overwhelming “mainstream” works adopting the traditional methodology in doing research in these fields,6
6、,Introduction,So, as an emerging field, ACSS grows quickly in China in the last decade Milestones 1998 first paper by Chinese scholar(s), in Chinese 1999 first ACSS project funded by NSFC 2001 first paper in English 2010 NSFCs well-known Shuangqing Forum (5oth ) selected ACSS as theme 2011 MoE & NSF
7、C put ACSS as one of the “Priority Areas of the Fields” in their 12th Five Year Plans, respectively,7,Outline,Introduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major players (journals, institutes and Funding vs. publication Fields distribution of ACSS The key references as the foundation of research
8、 Conclusions,8,Data Sets,Databases selected and time horizon SCI- 1997 - 2012.7 SSCI- 1997 - 2012.7 CSCD （in Chinese）-1997 - 2012.4 CSSCI（in Chinese）-1998 2011.12,9,Search Strategy,SCI & SSCI Key words: “Agent-based” AND “Multi-agent Simulation” Authors Affiliation with: “P. R. China” CSCD & CSSCI:
9、Key Words 基于agent 基于多agent 基于主体 基于多主体 计算实验 Type of literature: Article AND Review,10,Areas Searched in SCI,COMPUTER SCIENCE ENGINEERING AUTOMATION CONTROL SYSTEMS OPERATIONS RESEARCH MANAGEMENT SCIENCE PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY BUSINESS ECONOMICS PHYSICS ENERGY FUELS ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ECOLOGY EDUCATIO
10、N EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH INFORMATION SCIENCE LIBRARY SCIENCE,11,Areas Searched in CSCD,自动化技术、计算机技术(automation, computer technology) 工业经济(industrial economics) 自然科学总论(natural science/general) 货币/金融、银行/保险(monetary, banking, finance, insurance) 经济学（除会计）(economics) 图书馆学，情报学(library, information intelligen
11、ce) 农业基础科学(agriculture science) 贸易经济(domestic and international trade) 综合性人文科学(humanities/interdisciplinary) 综合性经济科学(economic science/interdisciplinary) 农业经济(agricultural economics) 文化事业/信息与知识传播（除图书馆学和档案学）(culture/information and knowledge) 教育(education),12,Primary Search Result,13,Further Screening
12、,Among the primary search result, we made a further selection by excluding the papers: Published by scholars from HK or Macao Not really using Agent-based approach Not related to Social Science at all Approach Proof-reading by two doctoral students, plus one faculty member Followed by group discussi
13、on to finalize,14,Final Search Result,15,Outline,Introduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major players in the field Funding vs. publication Fields distribution of ACSS The important references Conclusions,16,Overview of the literature,Totally 259 papers published in last 15 years, with a s
14、ignificant trend of growth 576 accumulated authors from 172 institutes made contributions to this publication The first authors of the papers are from 86 institutes Out of these 259 papers, 137 are published on 72 Chinese Journals 122 papers were published on 76 international journals,17,Growth of t
15、he Publication,18,Total Counts: both on INTL & CHN journals,19,Growth of the Publication,Chinese,Counts: INTL or CHN journals,20,Growth of the Publication,Scholars Worldwide, Source: SSCI database 1997-2008 (Chen Shuheng, 2011),Chinese Scholars, Source: SCI & SSCI database 1997-2012,Overview of the
16、Citation,To estimate the citation of a paper from the 137 ones in Chinese, we can employed either the following two standards (A or B): A: The number from CNKI (a Chinese counterpart of “Google Scholar” in this regard), plus Google Scholar B: The number from union set of CSCD and CSSCI, which are co
17、unterparts of SCI and SSCI respectively To estimate the citation of a paper from the 122 ones in English, we employed the following two standards (A or B): A: The sum of the numbers from Google Scholar and CNKI B: The number from SCI and SSCI,21,Overview of the Citation,For the 137 papers in Chinese
18、 By Standard A（CNKI + Google Scholar，2012/8/15） Total citation: 1255; Avg. citation per paper: 9.16 By Standard B（ CSCD AND CSSCI，2012/8/15） N/A, due to the error in CSCD For the 122 papers in English By Standard A（Google Scholar+CNKI，2012/8/15） Total citation: 1124; Avg. citation per paper: 9.21 By
19、 Standard B（SCI OR SSCI，2012/8/14） Total citation: 508; Avg. citation per paper: 4.16,22,Source: SCI or SSCI, as on 2012-8-14; CNKI & Google, as on 2012-8-15,23,The citation: yearly breakdown,Source: SCI or SSCI, as on 2012-8-14,24,The citation: yearly breakdown,25,The citation: An comparison,A: Int
20、l jounarl papers by CHN scholars, Source: SSCI/SCI 2012-8-14 B: Intl journal papers by INTL scholars, Source: SSCI, (Chen, 2011),Outline,Introduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major players in the field Funding vs. publication Fields distribution of ACSS The important references Conclusio
21、ns,26,Affiliated Institutes Distribution,27,Data: papers published on Chinese and international journals,counted by accumulated authors,28,Papers published,Affiliated Institutes Distribution,29,Active Institutes,30,Distribution of Journals (1997-2012),76 International journals 72 Chinese journals 14
22、8 in total,Number of papers published,To study which journals are playing the most important role in the contribution of literature, the so-called Bradfords Law applies According to the law，if the journals are sorted by the number of articles published on each journal and then divided into three cat
23、alogues Each catalogue will contain roughly one third of the total number of the articles Then the journal numbers in the three catalogues should follow the ratio of 1:n:n2,31,Distribution of Journals (1997-2012),Distribution of Journals (1997-2012),“Top Journals”,33,34,To analyze individual authors
24、 contribution to the literature, Lotkas Law (Lotka, 1926) is used It generally describes the scientific productivity of authors, relating the number of authors with the number of their publications The law says that yx, the number of authors who published x papers, is proportion to the reciprocal of
25、 x2, or in general, xn. That is: yx= C/ xn Where C is a field-featured constant, denoting the average number of publication per author in a given field,35,Author Productivity,Distribution of author productivity,36,Based on the data above, it is estimated that:yx= 0.7308/ x2.43 However, when applying
26、 K-S test to measure the fitness of our data to this generalized Lotkas Law, it failed a bit, since the max deviation of the data, Dmax of 0.0854, exceeded the statistic hurdle of 0.0679 (See the following calculation),37,Distribution of author productivity,38,Distribution of author productivity,Eve
27、n though, we can still compare this result with Chens (2011) international scholars works Our result:yx= 0.7308/ x2.43 Chens: yx= 0.8573/ x3.2 Meaning that CHN scholars productivity is a bit lower, and the number of authors who published more papers shrinks somewhat slower too.,39,Distribution of au
28、thor productivity,40,Relatively Active Authors,* Note: Sorted by international publications,Outline,Introduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major players (journals, institutes and authors) Funding vs. publication Fields distribution of ACSS The key references as the foundation of research
29、Conclusions,41,Research Funding,Funding, one way or another, is one of the important resource for doing research Comparing with that in developed economies, the research funding mechanism in China is quite different Almost of all research funding is from outside resources, based on intense competiti
30、on among scholars So, it is possible that there exists some relation between the outside funding and publication,42,Research Funding,Scientific papers are the outcome of basic research Therefore, the funding for this kind of research is chosen to study In China, NSFC is a major funding agency to sup
31、port fundamental studies in, among others, social science, and keep nice data records,43,Data set,Time horizon: 1997-2011 Scope Key words for searching: agent/主体/计算实验/仿真实证/基于智能体/微观模拟 Project code: with “G” heading， meaning that it is from the department mostly related to “Social Science” Selected ca
32、talogues: General Project, Junior Scientist Project, Regional Special Project, Key Project, Major Project, Big Research Plan,44,Plotting of the Projects,45,Funding and publication,We can not do any rigorous study with such a small data set, but from the observation it is clear that: The trend of gro
33、wth during this period is evidenced. The average annual increase rate is about 33%, twice as much as the 16% department-wide growth rate There does exist a strong correlation (=0.945145) between the funding and publication Out of the 259 papers, 209 (80.7%) are labeled with 225 NSFC funded projects,
34、46,Funding and publication,47,Papers,Funds,Funding and publication,Outline,Introduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major players in the field Funding vs. publication Fields distribution of ACSS The important references Conclusions,49,Field classification,Since we used four data bases, the
35、catalogues from each are not labeled in same way, though there are similarity among them By and large, the classification from SSCI is selected as a benchmark The papers from SCI, CSCD or CSSCI are sorted to the corresponding SSCI catalogues, if any, by direct translation, or Classified with two peo
36、ples proof-reading followed by group discussion,50,51,“Hot” Fields of ACSS in China,52,“Hot” Fields of ACSS in China,53,“Hot” Fields of ACSS in China,MANAGEMENT SCIENCE OM/SCM/Logistics Risk Management Systems Modeling/Optimization Information Systems Knowledge Management,“Hot” Fields of ACSS in Chi
37、na,ECONIMICS Macro-economic systems modeling and simulation Economic theory (game, market structure, etc.) Energy Market/Resource Pricing Low-carbon/Green Economy Industrial Economics Economic Policy Agricultural Economics,54,“Hot” Fields of ACSS in China,55,BUSINESS, FINANCE Market Modeling /Simula
38、tion Asset Pricing Market Micro-structure Behavior Finance Risk Management Investment Strategy Financial Policy,“Hot” Fields of ACSS in China,56,BUSINESS e-Business/e-Commerce Strategy Management Organizational Behavior Marketing Strategy Business Communication Innovation Management/Product Developm
39、ent,“Hot” Fields of ACSS in China,57,SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Social Issues Modeling/Simulation/Forecasting E-Government Communication and Emergency Management Ecosystems and Population/Urbanization Public Health Care Systems,Outline,Introduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major
40、players in the field Funding vs. publication Fields distribution of ACSS The important references Conclusions,58,Key references: international,59,60,Key references: international (cont.),61,Key references: Chinese,62,Key references: Chinese (cont.),63,Key references: among the 259 papers,Outline,Int
41、roduction Data sets Overview of the literature Major players in the field Funding vs. publication Fields distribution of ACSS The important references Conclusions,64,Conclusions,As a promising direction, ACSS is receiving more and more attention, not only from Chinese scholars, but also from the fun
42、ding agencies The publication and their citations, as well as funding, increased significantly in recent 5 years The publication on international journals has been growing much faster than Chinese ones since 2007 A group of research institutes have their focused areas in ACSS,65,Conclusions,Consider
43、ing the growth of papers and citations, though we do have similar trends with the international ones, but at least 3 to 4-year behind The overall citation of the papers is still quite low and their major references are from outside world, meaning that the originality of the works need to be improved
44、 further More international communication, say, publications on core journals and attending major international conferences, is needed,66,Conclusions,Comparing with natural science, social science is so-called “context-dependent” To some extent, most of the well-spread knowledge in this part of scie
45、nce, more or less developed from “aggregated data”, is based the very fundamental assumptions derived from the past world, explicitly or not So, when the context changes due to emerging economies, ICT, globalization, etc., some of the microscopic, but critical, assumptions change accordingly, leavin
46、g the existing knowledge “abnormal”,67,Conclusions,It is the need for developing new knowledge under this new “context”, including “Chinese Context” of course, that calls for further research in ACSS Base on this understanding and the demand from society, industry and government , as well as the pre
47、vious works and achievements by Chinese scholars in this field, I am quite optimistic about the growth of ACSS study in China:,68,Conclusions,International collaboration will be deeply enhanced The platform for domestic scholarly communication, say core journals in Chinese and domestic association(s
48、) will emerge The community will team up further and be more focused Interdisciplinary works, and collaborations with industry & government will become more popular More generalizable and original knowledge will be derived from some local issues,69,Thank You!,Wei ZHANG College of Management and Economics Tianjin University Tianjin, 300072 C +86-22-27891308,70,
